Editor's Note: This post was originally written on August 3rd, but due to the uncertainty surrounding Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Ladarius Green's availability going into the season, I decided to edit and re-post the piece.
Fantasy football pundits and players across the country have a zillion
different strategies that they claim will guarantee you a championship.
Personally, I think a lot of these strategies are horseshit and that
luck can often trump knowledge in this chaotic game. That being said,
one of the only things that I believe is truly essential in the quest
for fantasy football glory is late-round value picks (aka sleepers). Any
asshole can select a productive player in the first few rounds, the
success of your draft is truly determined by the last five or six rounds
when your forced to take chances on under-the-radar, risky veteran or
young, untested players. Getting players that put up excellent numbers
late in the draft isn't a gamble that usually pays off, but when it
does, it often leads to a league championship. Here are the guys that I
believe could end up being the top sleeper picks of 2016.
Quarterback: Derek Carr (Raiders)(Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 103.5 ESPN: 109.2 NFL.com: 110.2)
Carr made tremendous strides in 2015 after a solid rookie season in
2014, putting together a 3,987 YD/31 TD/13 INT campaign that led the
Raiders out of the league's basement and made them one of the most
exciting up-and-coming teams in the NFL. With top receiver Amari Cooper
entering his 2nd season and the addition of Kelechi Osemele in free
agency to an offensive line that was already one of the best in the
league a year ago, there's no reason to believe that Carr can't
significantly up his game yet again this season. Carr's intangibles,
solid arsenal of receiving weapons and comfort level with Bill
Musgrave's system give him a legitimate chance to be a top-tier fantasy
quarterback in 2016.
Honorable Mentions: Jameis Winston (Buccaneers), Andy Dalton (Bengals), Tyrod Taylor (Bills)
Running Back: Duke Johnson Jr. (Browns) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 107.8 ESPN: 82.7 NFL.com: 97.6)
After a top-to-bottom purge of their organization this offseason, the
Browns are in the inevitably painful first season of a rebuilding
process. With a roster full of mostly unproven young talent and cheap,
stopgap veterans, the amount of potential fantasy impact players on the
Browns roster is even lower than usual. One of the few intriguing pieces
they possess is second-year running back Duke Johnson Jr. Johnson
showed flashes of brilliance in a limited role last season and with a
new head coach/offensive coordinator in Hue Jackson that covets the
running game, there's good odds he'll have a more prominent role this
season. With his distinction as a true two-way back in an offense that
is largely devoid of talent, Johnson has a fantastic opportunity to
emerge as this offense's go-to-guy and could prove to be a cheap,
productive option at a position that has a severe lack of depth.
Honorable Mentions: T.J. Yeldon (Jaguars), Jay Ajayi (Dolphins), Paul Perkins (Giants)
Wide Receiver: Marvin Jones (Lions) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 98.0 ESPN: 100.6 NFL.com: 124.8)
Golden Tate my be entrenched as the Lions top receiver now that Calvin
Johnson is retired, but Marvin Jones was brought in free agency to be
utilized as a field-stretching complement to Tate, who is mostly
utilized in the short-passing game. Jones was rock-solid as the number 3
option in the Bengals passing game behind A.J. Green and Tyler Eifert,
putting up 816 YDS and 4 TD's in 2015, and the inevitable increase in
opportunities he's going to get in this pass-happy Lions offense could
very well lead to a career year for the 26-year old receiver.
Honorable Mentions: Sterling Shepard (Giants), Kevin White (Bears), Kamar Aiken (Ravens)
Tight End: Clive Walford (Raiders) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 129.8, ESPN: 170.0) NFL.com: 149.7)
Walford is a very deep sleeper (currently going in-between 3 and 5% of league's on the 3 biggest fantasy sites), but I think he has as much as upside as anyone else on this list. He thrived in limited snaps last season (329 YDS and 3 TD on 28 receptions) and his standing as the projected starting tight end in one of the fastest rising young offenses in the league makes him a logical candidate to enjoy a breakout season in 2016. Walford is a potential very late round gem at the single thinnest position in fantasy football.
Honorable Mentions: Dwayne Allen (Colts), Eric Ebron (Lions), Charles Clay (Bills)
Defense: Oakland Raiders (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 123.2 ESPN: 138.5 NFL.com: 143.6)
The Raiders had the sack (38, tied for 14th in the league) and takeaway
total (25, tied for 12th in the league) of a solid fantasy defense, but
their high points allowed (24.9, 22nd in the league) total made them a
merely average option in 2015. With the additions of outside linebacker
Bruce Irvin, cornerback Sean Smith and safety Reggie Nelson in free
agency and safety Karl Joseph in the draft to a defense that already
featured All-Pro outside linebacker/defensive end Khalil Mack and highly
underrated run-stuffing defensive tackle Dan Williams, the Raiders
don't seem like they're going repeat that high points allowed total
again. They more than likely won't put up Broncos or Seahawks-esque
numbers in most weeks, but their sky-high ceiling and favorable
late-season schedule makes them a great pick for owners that like to
wait until the final few rounds of the draft to select a defense.
Honorable Mentions: Minnesota Vikings, Philadelphia Eagles, New York Jets
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