Thursday, August 11, 2016

2016 NFL Preview: NFC West

Arizona Cardinals
2015 Record: 12-4 (1st in NFC West)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (4th season)
Notable Additions: DE/OLB Chandler Jones, G Evan Mathis, S Tyvon Branch
Notable Departures: S Rashad Johnson, OLB Dwight Freeney, CB Jeraud Powers

Offense:
The year-to-year progress this unit has made since Bruce Arians arrived in 2013 culminated in finishing  with the number 1 scoring offense in the league a year ago. Behind resurgent seasons from aging quarterback Carson Palmer and wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and excellent performances from their trio of highly-lauded young players (wide receivers Michael Floyd and John Brown, running back David Johnson), the Cardinals were a lethal, borderline unstoppable force throughout the season. The scary part is that Floyd, Brown and Johnson aren't even close to reaching their full potential yet, as they enter their 4th, 3rd and 2nd years in the league respectively. Given the flashes of brilliance they've shown to-date and having them play under the tutelage of Arians, 2016 could end up being absolutely massive years for all three of the Cardinals bright young talents.

The Cardinals have a promising young, every-down running back and a loaded receiving corps, what could possibly prevent this team from repeating as the top offense in football? The answer to that question is Palmer. Palmer hit a wall at the tail-end of the year (5 TD, 7 INT, 55.5 CMP % 65.3 QBR in the final 3 games of the season including the playoffs) with a trio of ugly performances against the Seahawks, Packers and Panthers after playing at a borderline MVP-level for most of the 2015 season. His late-season woes last season paired with his checkered injury history (major knee injuries in 2005 and 2014, torn ligaments in elbow on throwing arm in 2008, broken ribs in 2012, a slew of other minor injuries throughout his career) and age (he'll be 37 in December), leads me to believe that his production level is going to take a steep decline in 2016. Tom Brady, Peyton Manning and Brett Favre have proved within the last decade that quarterbacks can age gracefully by putting up ridiculous numbers well into their late 30's, but none of those guys had (or in Brady's case, has) the lengthy injury history or up-and-down track record that Palmer has. He has the benefit of having top-notch talent at the skill positions, a strong offensive line that managed to get even better in the offseason with the addition of hard-nosed veteran guard Evan Mathis and is coming off of a season in which he posted career-best total in passing yards (4,671), touchdowns (35) and QBR (104.6), but despite all of those factors that point to another successful season, I still have a feeling that this could be the year where Father Time starts to finally break Palmer down.

Defense:
Despite their departure of brilliant defensive coordinator Todd Bowles before the season started, the Cardinals continued their steady climb up the NFL defensive hierarchy in 2015. Behind career years from All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson and safety Tyrann Mathieu, the Cardinals managed to finish 2nd overall in total takeaways (33), tied for 7th in points allowed per game (19.6) and 5th overall in total defense (321.7 YDS per game).


General manager Steve Kiem managed to address the only pressing need this top-notch defense had by trading for former Patriots defensive end Chandler Jones to try and help bolster a pass-rush that was tied for 20th in the league a year ago with 36 sacks. Jones has had bouts of inconsistency throughout this career and is perhaps a tad bit overrated in NFL circles, but he's a fast, athletic edge-rusher who has proven he can produce in the pro's (he has a pair of double-digit sack seasons in his first 4 seasons in the league) and at just 26 years old, he has the potential to be a fixture on this defense for years to come. Pairing Jones with a high-upside 2nd-year player in Markus Golden on the edge could give the Cardinals one of the most surprisingly lethal pass-rushing tandems in the league this season.

The lone question mark on this unit is the health of star safety Mathieu. The right torn ACL that cut his 2015 season short is the 2nd major knee injury he's suffered in just 3 seasons in the league (he tore his left ACL and LCL in 2014) and despite his youth (he just turned 24 in May), Mathieu's long-term durability has to be at least somewhat of a cause for concern-especially considering that the Cardinals just gave him a 5 year/$62.5 million extension with $40 mil in guaranteed money. The play of their defense went seriously downhill as soon he got injured in late December last season and if he goes down yet again in 2016, the Cardinals place among the NFL's elite defenses could come to a sudden, unexpected demise.

Bottom Line: 
The frail nature and age of Palmer could up derailing the title hopes for one of the most talent-loaded and well-coached teams in the NFL.  

Los Angeles Rams
2015 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Jeff Fisher (5th season)
Notable Additions: DT Dominique Easley, CB Coty Sensabaugh, DT Cam Thomas
Notable Departures: CB Janoris Jenkins, S Rodney McLeod, DE Chris Long 

Offense:
 How did general manager Les Snead and head coach Jeff Fisher respond to finishing with one of the league's worst offenses (32nd in passing offense, 32nd in total offense, 29th in points per game) in the league for a third straight season? By doing absolutely nothing of course! They bizarrely didn't any add new blood to an offensive line has no reliable talent (their league-low 18 sacks allowed in 2015 is deceiving because they rarely throw the ball) and the 2 additions to their league-worst receiving corps (tight end Tyler Higbee and wide receiver Pharaoh Cooper, both of whom were 4th round picks in this year's draft) more than likely won't make a major impact right away, despite the solid upside they both possess. With a receiving corps led by massive bust Tavon Austin and Kenny Britt-the gold standard for below average NFL wide receivers- and an offensive line that can't be trusted, the state of the Rams offense is as bleak as ever.   

The only attempt the Rams made this offseason at changing up their offense isn't even currently set to take the field in Week 1. The Rams gave up basically all of their valuable picks in this year and next year's NFL Draft to move and up draft potential franchise quarterback Jared Goff number 1 overall, only to reportedly bench him in favor of CASE FUCKING KEENUM?!?!?! Goff's confidence must be through the roof right now as he is being forced to hold a clipboard for a guy that's biggest accomplishment in the NFL to-date was breaking league protocol by not leaving the field after clearly suffering a concussion in a game against the Ravens last season. Having a rookie quarterback not start right away isn't a terrible idea, but keeping him on the bench (for now at least) in favor of a below-average veteran that most teams would only throw out in emergency situations makes zero sense for a team trying to escape the bowels of mediocrity.

The lone playmaker and only sliver of hope the Rams have of not being among the league's worst offenses yet again comes in the form of running back Todd Gurley. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year was borderline unstoppable for most of his rookie season, putting up 1,106 yards (4.8 yards per carry) in just 13 games. Without the struggle of trying to rehab from a torn ACL and a year of experience under his bet, Gurley is in good shape to be even more lethal in his sophomore campaign. He's going to getting an absurd amount of carries due to their non-existent passing attack and his bruising running style that's reminiscent of Adrian Peterson and Marshawn Lynch usually translates to long-term success in the league. If he can successfully adapt to opposing defenses stacking the box every time he's on the field and remain healthy, a rushing title could very well be in the cards for Gurley in 2016.   

Defense:
The Rams talented defense has inspired a lot of false confidence in this team's overall abilities throughout Fisher's tenure with the team. This will more than likely be the case once again in 2016 as the Rams talented group of core defensive players are mostly still in tact and a lot of people are somehow still drinking the Kool-Aid that the strength of this unit paired with Fisher's experience will be enough to get this team a playoff spot in one of the toughest divisions in a talented-loaded conference.

Fisher and defensive coordinator Gregg "Jango Fett" Williams will face their toughest test to-date as free agency put a huge strain on their talented secondary. Safety Rodney McLeod-who had a breakout season in 2015 and cornerback Janoris Jenkins bolted for the Eagles and Giants respectively and their departure has left a pair of massive holes in the starting lineup. The players currently penciled in to take over the vacant starting spots (cornerback LaMarcus Joyner and safety Cody Davis) are sketchy at best on paper. Joyner has done alright in a supporting role (he started 6 games last season) in his first 2 years in the league, but he has yet to be consistently tested at the professional level while Davis has a whopping 0 starts in 3 NFL seasons. The return of talented young cornerback Trumaine Johnson should help soften the blow of losing two solid veteran starters, but the uncertainty that lies within the rest of the group could unravel a unit that has been a major strength for the Rams over the past few seasons.

Despite the potentially crucial losses in the secondary, their defensive front should be good enough to weather the storm and allow this defense to once again be one of the most imposing units in the league. William Hayes is one of the most quietly productive defensive ends in the league, the addition of ex-New England Patriot defensive tackle Dominique Easley puts yet another promising young player into their deep rotation and rising star defensive tackle Aaron Donald might be the most disruptive and consistently dominant defensive lineman to enter the league since J.J Watt. As long as this defensive line continues to wreak havoc, the Rams D will be a difficult matchup for most opposing offenses.

Bottom Line:
Sorry Jeff Fisher, you're probably fucking going 7-9 (or worse) again.  

San Francisco 49ers
2015 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC West)
Head Coach: Chip Kelly (1st season)
Notable Additions: T Anthony Davis (reinstated), G Zane Beadles
Notable Departures: G Alex Boone, WR Anquan Boldin, RB Reggie Bush

Offense:
Lord knows nothing will aid a dumpster fire of an organization with a level of internal conflict so high that it makes the Browns look like a beacon of functionality like hiring the man who was nearly-universally hated by his players and single-handily killed the Philadelphia Eagles in just a single year of having complete control of all football operations to be your new coach. There's no possible way this could end in disaster.....
 
As for the actual football, the offensive "wizardry" Chip Kelly was clearly hired for more than likely won't do anything to aid nearly weapon-free offense. The weakness of the 49ers offense can best be summed up by the fact that notorious draft bust Blaine Gabbert, who started in the team's final 8 games a year ago and former goldenboy Colin Kaepernick, who has enjoyed one of the steepest falls of grace in recent football history after leading this team to a Super Bowl appearance in 2013, are currently locked up in a competition for the starting quarterback job. It doesn't matter who ultimately comes out on top in this very sad competition because neither of them are fit to be successful starters in the NFL.

The receiving corps is similarly ugly with streaky, deep-threat Torrey Smith being installed as the de facto top wideout- a position that his limited skill set makes him horribly unqualified for- after Anquan Boldin wasn't re-signed in the offseason and a clusterfuck of ineffective, untested young players in Bruce Ellington, DeAndre Smelter and Quinton Patton currently battling it out for the other starting spot. Even talented running back Carlos Hyde is in a bad spot because of the near certainty that the 49ers are going to be playing from behind in a vast majority of the games(in other words, they'll be in no position to run the ball) they play this season. If Kelly can somehow make this offense productive, he truly is a transcendent football genius with the greatest offensive scheme of all-time and I'll take back all of the negative things I've said about him over the past couple of years.

Defense:

The outlook for the 49ers defense headed into 2016 isn't as gloomy as the offense, but it sure as hell isn't rosy either.  The team is still reeling from the mass retirement exodus (inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Chris Borland, defensive end Justin Smith) and cutting of former first All-Pro outside linebacker Aldon Smith prior to last season and despite having a league-high $47.5 mil in available cap space for 2016, they made no notable veteran additions this offseason. The team did draft a potentially excellent defensive end in DeForest Buckner with the 7th overall pick in the draft and the successful comeback of inside linebacker NaVorro Bowman in 2015 after missing nearly 2 seasons with a torn ACL and MCL gives them an anchor piece they can build around for the next 3 or 4 seasons, but their defense is still locked into a transitional period at this point in time.

The only chance this unit has of exceeding expectations this season is if their key young players can all step up and make major improvements. Safety Eric Reid is the only young player on this roster that can currently be relied to perform on a consistent basis (defensive tackle Ian Williams has too, but he's allegedly out for the year with a torn Achilles), but guys like cornerback Kenneth Acker, outside linebacker Aaron Lynch and defensive end Arik Armstead have shown flashes of serious potential in 2015. Acker finished the year as a respectable slot corner after a rough start, Lynch picked up a solid 6.5 sacks in his first season as a starter and second-year defensive end Armstead was a highly-effective run-stopper in limited reps last season. Learning a new system and with the exception of Lynch, a potentially dramatic uptick in reps makes substantial progress a tall order for this season, but all of these guys have the upside to deify the odds and take their game to the next level in 2016.  

Bottom Line: 
A talent-barren roster and tumultuous off-field environment puts the 49ers in a ROUGH spot for the 2016 season.

Seattle Seahawks
2015 Record: 11-5 (2nd in NFC West)
Head Coach: Pete Carroll (7th season)
Notable Additions: CB Brandon Browner, G Jahri Evans, G/T Ja'Marcus Webb
Notable Departures: RB Marshawn Lynch (retired), OLB Bruce Irvin, T Russell Okung 

Offense:
The Beast Mode-era to an abrupt end when Marshawn Lynch suddenly announced his retirement from the league after 9 seasons on Super Bowl Sunday. Lynch was the tone-setter for the Seahawks offense since he arrived in 2010 and played an integral role in helping transform them from a perennially below-average team to one of the most feared teams in the league. While Lynch's toughness, violent running style and priceless interactions with the media can't be duplicated, the Seahawks seem to found a worthy successor to Beast Mode's throne in second-year back Thomas Rawls. Rawls was excellent in relief of Lynch,who missed 9 games in 2015 with various injuries, before going down with a season-ending ankle injury himself in Week 13 against the Minnesota Vikings. If he can bounce back with no complications or further injury, he should be able to keep the Seahawks rushing attack among the league's best in 2016.


With Lynch out of the equation, this offense now fully belongs to 5th-year quarterback Russell Wilson. In spite of what a fair amount of analysts have seen saying this offseason, I think Wilson will easily be able to handle being the sole leader of the Seahawks offense. Wilson shined last season when Lynch was sidelined, playing the best football of his career when asked to throw more and did more than enough to finally destroy the long-standing myth that he was only successful because of Beast Mode's dominance in the running game. I'll never understand where the doubts about Wilson keep coming from given his track record of consistent success since entering the league in 2012, but I would be shocked if he didn't once again silence his critics in spectacular fashion this season.

Given the success they had throwing the ball down the stretch last season, I expect the Seahawks to keep up their increased passing volume into this season. Wilson's accuracy and decisionmaking continues to improve with each season he's been in the league and their receiving corps led by Doug Baldwin and Tyler Lockett has never looked better during the Pete Carroll-era. I'm not completely confident that Baldwin will be able to duplicate the dominant run he went on in the last 2 months of last season or that Lockett will continue to slip under the radar of every defense they face, but I still expect the Seahawks passing attack to improve once again in 2016.

Given the stability found on the rest of the offense, it's ironic that their offensive line is in an unprecedented state of disarray. The Seahawks porous offensive line play and revolving door of different starters caused the team to stumble out of the gates a year ago and they appear to be line in an even more brutal set of offensive line woes headed into 2016. Veteran left tackle Russell Okung-the only constant amidst all the moves last season-left for the Broncos in free agency and every single projected starter (center Justin Britt, left tackle Gary Gilliam, rookie guard Germain Ifedi and newly-acquired right tackle J'Marcus Webb) aside from left guard Mark Glowinski is playing a different position than did they last season, which is a beyond risky proposition for a team that was plagued with continuity issues upfront a year ago. The Seahawks have the benefit of having a mobile quarterback who can arguably evade pressure better than anyone in the NFL and a physical, tackle-shedding running back that doesn't require excellent run-blocking to be effective, but their championship hopes could be dashed if this offensive line can't come together.
   
Defense:
The Seahawks defense showed signs of legitimate weakness for the first time since "The Legion of Boom" was formed in 2012 due to down years from inside linebacker Bobby Wagner and safety Kam Chancellor, and an inability to nail down a competent starting cornerback (never forget the failed efforts of Cary Williams, Marcus Burley and DeShawn Shead) alongside Richard Sherman until Jeremy Lane was activated from IR in late November. Despite showing their mortality at various points of last season, the Seahawks still allowed a league-low 17.3 points per game, had the top-ranked rush defense and allowed the 2nd fewest yards in the league behind the Super Bowl champion Broncos.


Even with the loss of outside linebacker Bruce Irvin and defensive tackle Brandon Mebane in free agency and the unfortunate return of Brandon Browner-who is desperately seeking redemption after spending the past 2 seasons with the Patriots and Saints getting roasted by every competent receiver he faced-to the fold, I expect the Seahawks to maintain their established level of excellence during the 2016 season. With the possible exception of the Broncos, no defense in the league is better at all 3 levels and aside from 30-year old defensive ends Michael Bennett and Cliff Avril, all of their best defenders are 28 or younger, which means the majority of their core players are smack dab in the middle of or about to enter their prime years in the league. This defense has all the tools to succeed and unless all hell breaks loose, they should be in contention to be the absolute best in the league.

Bottom Line:
With a bevy of talent on both sides of the ball and a strong coaching staff, the Seahawks should once again be Super Bowl contenders in 2016.  

Projected Standings:
1.Seattle Seahawks (12-4)
2.Arizona Cardinals (10-6)
3.Los Angeles Rams (6-10)
4.San Francisco 49ers (2-14)

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