Baltimore Ravens
2023 Record: 10-7 (2nd in AFC North)
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (16th season)
Notable Additions: WR Odell Beckham Jr., CB Rock Ya-Sin, WR Nelson Agholor
Notable Departures: DE Calias Campbell, CB Marcus Peters, G Ben Powers
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Greg Roman is Out as Offensive Coordinator
Greg Roman was pivotal to the early development of Lamar Jackson. Building off his past experiences with Colin Kaepernick, Roman was able to build an entire offense around Jackson's dynamic rushing ability that effectively turned the Ravens into a track team with shoulder pads on that was pretty much impossible to stop. The early results were hard to argue with as Jackson won the MVP in 2019 and put together back-to-back 1,000 rushing YDS campaigns in 2019 and 2020 while the Ravens made the playoffs 3 times in 4 seasons. The problem was that Roman's system was so driven by the rushing game that GM Eric DeCosta was basically discouraged from investing in the receiver position since it was effectively an afterthought in their scheme. It got to the point over the past 2 seasons where if they went down early, you knew they had basically zero chance of coming back since they simply didn't have the talent at receiver outside of Mark Andrews to make consistent plays in the passing game. After back-to-back seasons of the offense ranking in the bottom half of the league in scoring (17th in 2021, 19th in 2022) and a brutal stretch last December/January where they failed to score more than 17 points in a whopping 6 straight games, the need to move on from Roman became apparent and 9 days after their Wild Card loss to the Bengals, he "resigned" from his post as Ravens OC.
When it came to finding a replacement for Roman, the Ravens naturally went in the complete opposite direction when they pried Todd Monken away from the University of Georgia. Over the course of his OC career in the pros-which mainly consisted of his stint with the truly hilarious Dirk Koetter-Jameis Winston-era Buccaneers from 2016-18, Monken has built up a reputation as a pass-happy SOB. Given that Jackson is under center and their roster construction still favoring a run-heavy philosophy, Monken likely won't be letting it fly like it's 33-31 shootout against the Falcons at Raymond James Stadium in 2017. Still, the team won't be afraid to pass under Monken and with a healthy Odell Beckham Jr. and promising rookie in Zay Flowers-who was quite the route-runner/YAC specialist in colllege and boasts the inside/outside versatility that teams covet in their receivers-lining up alongside longtime top target Mark Andrews and the enigma that is 3rd year pro Rashod Bateman, they could make some serious noise when they decide to throw it.
Admittedly, the results from Monken's previous NFL gigs are reasons to give people some pause over how he'll fare in Baltimore. His offenses have never ranked higher than 12th in scoring and what transpired in Cleveland during the trainwreck 2019 season under Freddie Kitchens was bad enough to get him relegated to college and keep NFL teams from pursuing him for 3 whole seasons. However, Monken was frequently hamstrung by horrible defenses and some of the worst turnover rates in the league while he was with the Bucs and Browns. At the bare minimum, these problems with the Ravens won't be nearly as backbreaking with the Ravens. Their RB duo of J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards don't put a lot of balls on the ground (they combined for 1 lost fumble and only 3 total last season), their bend-but-don't-break defense tightened up when it needed to and they ended up finishing in 3rd in scoring defense a year ago and while he's is somewhat prone to throwing some brutal, costly picks at inopportune times, Jackson is by no means a Winston-esque gunslinger capable of blindly chucking his way into a 20+ pick season. As long as they don't regress in these key areas, Monken stands a good chance of finding a happy medium between his pass-happy philosophies and the Ravens run-first roster build and building a hell of an offense.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Corner Play Next to Marlon Humphrey
Everybody knows the book on Marlon Humphrey at this point in his career. He's a tough, tremendous outside corner who excels in zone coverage and seldom makes costly mistakes. The entire corner group has been built around him for the past 4 years for a reason and the Ravens are lucky to have somebody so reliable as their top dog. Unfortunately for Baltimore, Humphrey's presence (or their excellent safety trio of Marcus Williams, Kyle Hamilton and Chuck Clark-who was traded to the Jets in the offseason and will miss all of 2023 after tearing his ACL during mini-camp in the spring-for that matter) wasn't enough to make their pass defense good. They actually ranked a miserably bad 26th in the league against the pass, which is staggering since their rush and scoring defense were both ranked 3rd overall.
Marcus Peters was the biggest catalyst to their struggles last season as he had easily his worst year as a Raven-allowing 711 YDS and 7 TD's in only 13 games played. As a result of his play in 2022 and age entering 2023 (he'll be 31 in early January), the Ravens decided to let him walk in free agency.
Unfortunately, their issues at corner extended well beyond Peters and most of the other parties responsible for their struggles in 2022 are still walking around their facility in Owings Mills, Maryland. Brandon Stephens was so bad at corner last season that they're set to move him to safety as a de facto replacement for Clark this year. Jayln Amour-Davis didn't even look like he should be a professional cornerback in the 4 games he appeared in before going on IR with a hip injury as he allowed 11-of-12 targets that the receivers he lined up against managed to turn into 226 YDS and 2 TD's (that's a truly averaging 20.5 YDS per reception against). Fellow rookie Damarion Williams fared a bit better than Amour-Davis in spot duty over 14 games, but he still had plenty of ugly moments-especially as a tackler and his ball skills don't seem to be good enough to earn him consistent playing time at this level. Journeyman Daryl Worley will probably continue to bounce between the big club and the practice squad if he sticks with the Ravens, so he probably won't factor much into this mess either way.
Based on whose been running alongside Humphrey in camp, their ideal solution at the position seems to be free agent pickups Rock Ya-Sin and Arthur Maulet. This is far from the safest strategy DeCosta could pull out here. Ya-Sin actually managed to put together a sneaky good year as part of an otherwise wretched Raiders secondary in 2022, but he's not the INT threat that Peters was (he actually only has 2 career picks and hasn't gotten one since 2020), has shaky durability-missing 3+ games in each of the past 3 seasons and is a magnet for drawing some really dumb PI calls ever since he came into the league in 2019. Maulet, on the other hand, is pretty much just a "guy". He's somebody who doesn't do anything overly well or poorly that gets rolled out there as a slot or 4th corner when a team needs a body and they just hope that he doesn't get burned too bad while they need him out there. Sometimes the strategy works, sometime it doesn't. Relying him on as a full-time starter seems a bit ill-advised, but maybe Mike McDonald can unlock something in him that his coaches with the Saints, Colts, Jets and Steelers couldn't.
Their pass defense could prove to be quite the albatross if it performs like it did a year ago, so DeCosta better hope that somebody steps up alongside Humphrey and makes this group at least semi-functional again.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Lamar Jackson's Health
After submitting a trade request and getting caught up in an unprecedented case of "alleged" league-wide collusion in which no other teams made him an offer despite being on the non-exclusive franchise tag that the Ravens slapped on him after their initial round of contract talks stalled, Lamar Jackson signed a 5-year/$260 mil ($180 mil guaranteed) extension to remain in Baltimore. It was the right move for both sides as the Ravens have built their entire offense around him and Jackson wasn't going to get the deal that reflected his worth from any other team. With the contract drama behind them, the Ravens can move onto the bigger concern (aka the one that was being used as the excuse as to why no other team was pursuing him this offseason): His health.
Over the past 2 seasons, Jackson has gotten dinged up in early December and spent the rest of the year on the sideline. In 2021, it was a severe low ankle sprain that required him to be carted off the field shortly after hobbling to the sideline in a Week 14 showdown with the Browns. Last year, it was a PCL sprain sustained on a sack by Broncos outside linebacker Jonathon Cooper in Week 13. There's been some debate how serious the PCL sprain was as he was initially predicted to return to action in 3 weeks and some people believe that he was indeed good to go for the final 2 games of the year but chose to sit out to avoid risking re-injury just a few months before he was set to negotiate his new contract.
Regardless of the true severity of the PCL ailment, getting hurt late in the year in back-to-back seasons is a potentially troubling sign for Jackson. It's not a secret that the 26-year old is one of the smaller QB's in the league at 6'2, 215 lbs and given his relatively slender frame, the beatings that he opens himself up to when fearlessly running the football all over the field could lead to a steeper physical decline than the one we recently saw from a bigger QB that also put himself in harm's way in the running game (Cam Newton). The harsh truth it's not a matter of if Jackson's body will break down from taking frequent huge hits over these years, but when. The human body can only withstand so much punishment and Jackson has actively seeked out a whole lot of it while he's been shattering every QB rushing record in the league history during his initial 5 NFL seasons.
Based on what's happened to him over the past 2 years, the physical deterioration process could already be starting. For the sake of self-preservation and the collective good of a franchise whose brass might puke if Tyler Huntley is under center again at Christmas this year, Jackson needs to begin emulating the rushing strategies of fellow small QB's Russell Wilson, Kyler Murray and rookie Bryce Young and avoid hard contact whenever possible by sliding or getting out of bounds. Taking whatever he steps he can to make himself less susceptible to getting injured should immediately increase his chances of meaningfully growing the legacy he's already began to build and with a healthy Jackson under center, anything is possible for this team.
Cincinnati Bengals
2023 Record: 12-4 (1st in AFC North)
Head Coach: Zac Taylor (5th season)
Notable Additions: T Orlando Brown Jr., S Nick Scott, TE Irv Smith Jr.
Notable Departures: S Jessie Bates III, S Vonn Bell, TE Hayden Hurst
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Lou Anarumo Didn't Get a Head Coaching Job
Despite securing multiple interviews during the hiring cycle and being viewed as the frontrunner for the Cardinals job by some NFL media insiders, Lou Anarumo didn't land a head coaching job and will return to the Bengals for his 5th season as defensive coordinator. This is a best case scenario for a Bengals team that is looking to secure their 1st championship after getting pretty damn close to doing so in back-to-back seasons.
Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins' ascension to stardom has managed to overshadow just how good the Bengals defense has been over the past 2 seasons (more like a year and a half, but that's just semantics). Hell, you could make a pretty strong argument that they wouldn't have made it all the way to the Super Bowl in 2021 without their contributions given that most of their scoring came from the right leg of Evan McPherson. Anarumo has instilled a level of toughness and compete level that is first-rate and their ability to generate sacks/takeaways at key moments of the game is seriously impressive. He'll have some difficult things to figure out this season as he tries to re-work a pretty significantly overhauled secondary (more on that in the next section) and try to mold their 1st round pick Myles Murphy into a valuable part of their pass-rushing rotation alongside Trey Hendrickson and Sam Hubbard after a college career at Clemson where he failed to consistently make impact plays. Considering how well he's handled things over the past 2 years in terms of both player development and play-calling, he should up for the challenge and the Bengals have to be thrilled that it will be him navigating these problems instead of a newcomer that more than likely would've been brought in from outside of their system.
Biggest Reason for Concern: State of Their Secondary
Pass defense was really the only crippling deficiency of the Bengals D in 2022 as they finished 23rd in the league against the pass-which surprisingly was an improvement from their 27th place finish the prior season. Last year's struggles intensified significantly once top corner Chidobe Awuzie tore his ACL during their Week 8 contest versus the Browns. Awuzie's absence forced rookie Cam Taylor-Britt to become a starting outside corner and putting an overwhelmed rookie into the lineup alongside the oft-burned Eli Apple went about as well as expected as the Bengals gave up an average of 251.5 YDS from Week 9 through their AFC Title Game loss to the Chiefs (up from the 202.1 per game they allowed in Weeks 1-7 when Awuzie was healthy).
2023 will introduce a completely new set of problems to a group that already wasn't in the best shape. The biggest (and not exactly unexpected) kick in the balls this group received was losing both of their longtime starting safeties (Jessie Bates III and Vonn Bell) in free agency. There's a case to be made that it makes financial sense to let Bates and Bell walk since the Bengals theoretically have to pay Burrow, Chase and Higgins within the next 18 months and can't afford to commit $80+ million to the safety position at this point in time.
Even if you're a defender of this move, their plan to replace a pair of top 20 safeties in the league doesn't exactly feel like a home run. Free agent pickup Nick Scott was affordable (3 years/$12 million-which is basically a third of what Bates could end up getting from the Falcons over the life of his deal) for a reason-he's an average-to-below-average player who was never better than the 3rd best overall safety on the Rams during his entire 4-year stint with the team. 2022 1st round pick Dax Hill has more upside since he has the field-spanning versatility and electric playmaking potential that Scott doesn't, but he's also a complete wild card since he got limited reps last season and struggled pretty badly in his 1 start at slot corner when Mike Hilton-who was a bright spot them for them last season and will be back this year-was out with a finger injury.
Then, there's the negative side effect of their fully expected divorce with Apple after another suspect season being Taylor-Britt becoming a full-time starter on the outside. Transitioning to the NFL game as a rookie corner is a difficult jump that only a small number of guys are able to make and the learning curve is even steeper when you're thrust into a big role on a whim, which makes Taylor-Britt's struggles last season totally understandable. However, his inability to keep receivers in front of him despite his high 4.3 speed and shaky ball skills (0 INT's, 6 passes defensed in 10 games) indicate that he just might not be able to cut it as a starter at this level.
Add in the realistic potential for regression from Awuzie after the ACL tear and you have a highly combustible situation that could make life really difficult for this team as they attempt to maintain their contender status in an exceptionally competitive conference and division.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Finally Getting Their Offensive Line Woes Fixed
As much as their pass defense woes contributed to their loss against the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game, their offensive line problems reared their ugly head yet again as Burrow took 5 sacks, 6 hits and 11 pressures and the running back duo of Joe Mixon and Samjae Perine averaged a brutally low 2.2 YDS per carry. It does need to be noted that the Bengals were without both starting tackles (Jonah Williams, La'el Collins) as well as starting right guard Alex Cappa in this game, but this performance was unacceptable regardless of circumstances.
The reality is that even when the Bengals were at full-strength last season, their line wasn't all that great. Their run blocking was among the worst in the league, Collins had arguably the worst year of his career as he constantly looked sluggish and got overwhelmed in nearly every game and Williams and Cordell Volson both ranked in the top 5 in sacks allowed at their positions (Williams actually finished tied for the league lead among tackles with a whopping 12 surrendered). Bengals brass clearly weren't satisfied with their performance last year either as they decided to shake up their tackle situation by signing Orlando Brown Jr. in free agency. Ironically, Brown Jr. was brought in by the Chiefs to play left tackle after they got absolutely dominated by the Buccaneers pass-rush in their Super Bowl loss in 2020. The move for Brown Jr. worked quite well as their line significantly improved during his 2 seasons with the team. While some people around the league still view him as more of a right tackle-which reportedly caused his market to be weaker than expected and the additions of Joe Thuney and Creed Humphrey were equally, if not more key in their successful offensive line overhaul, Brown Jr. proved he can be a reliable left tackle in this league during his time with the Chiefs and that is really all the Bengals need him to be.
Bringing in Brown Jr. forces Williams over to right tackle, which despite his protests that led to him submitting a trade request after Brown signed in late March, could be good for him and his pursuit of a new deal in free agency as the weaker collection of pass-rushers on the right side could bring his sacks allowed numbers down as well as the general construction of this line now that a better pass-protector is manning the blind side.
The interior looks to be the same as last year, which isn't the worst news in the world. Cappa and Karras more or less delivered what was expected of them when they joined the Bengals last season and Volson could very well improve now that he has a year of playing guard under his belt after exclusively playing tackle at North Dakota State. Any situation where Burrow isn't getting acquainted with the grass on 75% of his dropbacks and their running backs that are shockingly still being led by Mixon-who looked old and slow for the bulk of 2022-have some actual lanes to rush through will be a huge improvement for this team and could provide them with the boost they need to finally get over the hump and win a title.
Bottom Line:
If Burrow can come back healthy from the calf strain that knocked him out of practice at the start of training camp and their defense can overcome their secondary shakeup, the Bengals should be considered a real threat to make it out of the AFC.
Cleveland Browns
2023 Record: 7-10 (4th in AFC North)
Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski (4th season)
Notable Additions: DE Za'Darius Smith, WR Elijah Moore, S Juan Thornhill
Notable Departures: QB Jacoby Brissett, RB Kareem Hunt, DE Jadeveon Clowney
Biggest Reason for Excitement: All of the Pass-Rushers They Brought In to Pair with Myles Garrett
No matter how ugly things got for the 2022 Browns defensively as the injuries piled up and the volume of big plays allowed continued to increase (particularly in the running game), Myles Garrett was a force that simply couldn't be stopped. The now 4x All-Pro racked up 16 sacks, 26 QB hits, 38 pressures, 18 TFL's, 60 total tackles and 4 passes defensed, which helped him finish in 5th place in Defensive Player of the Year voting. Considering that he did all of this with minimal help from his running mates (the entire rest of the team managed 18 sacks combined) while getting even more attention from opposing offenses than usual is frankly absurd even by Garrett's lofty standards.
Their lackluster overall sack totals paired with the hiring of a blitz-happy DC in Jim Schwartz to replace Joe Woods-who was fired after a pretty poor performance in 2022-convinced GM Andrew Berry to go pass-rusher crazy this offseason. Set to replace Jadeveon Clowney as Garrett's primary running mate on the edge is Za'Darius Smith. Smith had himself a great return to the field in 2022 after missing all but 1 game in 2021 with a back injury, registering 10 sacks and earning his 3rd career Pro Bowl nod in the process. Him wanting out of Minnesota after 1 season is a little puzzling (he requested a trade after the Draft and was subsequently dealt to Cleveland a few weeks later), but their loss is a particularly welcome gain for the Browns.
An equally important addition came earlier in the spring when they inked Ogbonnia Okoronkwo to a 3-year deal. Adding a designated pass-rusher in Okoronkwo allows them the luxury of establishing at least somewhat of a pass-rushing rotation to keep their starters more fresh and coming off a career year on a bad Texans team and entering his age-28 season, he could be store in for a nice run of success as he enters his prime.
The guy that could really hold the key of just how good their pass-rush/hopes of establishing a legit rotation can be is rookie Isaiah McGuire. Selected in the 4th round out of Mizzou, McGuire is the classic projection pick who has all the physical tools (speed, size, strength, a couple of effective pass-rushing moves), but just wasn't able to put it all together to be a consistently productive players in college. If McGuire can pop and the Browns can go at least 4 deep with their pass-rushing arsenal, the Ravens, Bengals and Steelers' quest for the top spot in the AFC North could get derailed in short order.
Biggest Reason for Concern: That Their Defense Still Won't Be Very Good Overall Despite all of the Offseason Changes
There's a (totally reasonable) belief that firing Woods and bringing in a bunch of new pieces (in addition to the pass-rushers, the Browns also brought in Dalvin Tomlinson, Juan Thornhill, Rodney McLeod and rookie Siaki Ika to either start or get regular reps) will be enough to dramatically change the course of this Browns group this year. As much individual talent as exists within this group, I'm not so sure I believe that.
Before you even get down to the actual X and O's, you have to factor in the lack of durability that this group has. Top corner Denzel Ward is pretty much a lock to get dinged up somewhere down the line as he's missed at least 2 games in each of his 5 NFL seasons thus far, their undersized linebacking corps (Anthony Walker Jr., Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Sione Takitaki) have taken some pretty hardcore beatings over the past 2 seasons that have caused them to miss varying amounts of time (Takitaki on the short end with 6 missed games while Walker Jr. is in the pole position with 17) and with Smith entering his age 31 season with a recent serious back injury on his resume, fears surrounding him re-aggravating the ailment remain tangible.
Another not overly considered thing when discussing this defense is how many suspect returning starters they have within their ranks. Jordan Elliott is still penciled in at the other starting defensive tackle spot alongside their new top run-stuffer Tomlinson despite being chief among the reasons their run D was so porous a year ago (25th in the league), the aforementioned starting linebacking corps is far too erratic in coverage and as tacklers to be trusted and despite his solid 4-INT total a year ago, Grant Delpit has been a below average starting safety in both of his healthy NFL seasons. Not to mention, Ward has somehow been able to skate for how poorly he played throughout 2022 as he allowed the highest completion percentage of all their corners that played regularly (60.9%) and YDS (530) on the entire team despite only appearing in 14 games.
The final piece of this potentially combustible puzzle is the man who was brought into replace Woods. Schwartz hasn't had a meaningful coaching role since he got axed as Eagles DC following the 2020 season (he's spent the past 2 seasons with the Titans as a senior defensive assistant) and during his time there, the group actually got progressively worse with each passing year (4th to 12th to 15th to 20th in scoring defense). His overall track record is a bit better as he led the Titans to a pair of top 10 scoring defenses in back-to-back seasons in 2007 and 2008 under Jeff Fisher and his lone year in Buffalo before Doug Marrone resigned in 2014 was revelatory as his group ranked 4th in scoring defense, 4th in total YDS allowed, 3rd in pass defense and 1st in sacks just a year after Mike Pettine had them ranked in the bottom half of the league in many of those same categories. Schwartz has enough of a pedigree to potentially turn things around, but his 2 years away from playcalling/scheming could prove to be detrimental for a group that needs to improve dramatically immediately to help eliminate the high risk Kevin Stefanski has of getting fired if he puts together a 3rd straight losing season.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Deshaun Watson Returning to Form
Stefanski's future in Cleveland is largely tied to how Watson fares this season. Is that totally fair since the brass knew Watson would be suspended for most of the 2022 season and effectively be useless for the remainder of it when they traded for him? No, but that's the price you pay when you commit to having a serial sexual predator that hadn't played football for nearly 2 calendar years at QB.
When Watson returned to the field in early December, the results were ugly. He wasn't just shaking the rust off, he looked like he was trying to re-learn the position on the fly. Everything from his throwing motion to the timing with his receivers just looked and felt off and those visible struggles unsurprisingly led to the worst numbers of his career (7 TD's/5 INT/58.2 CMP% in 6 games) by a wide margin.
Does this mean anything in the grand scheme of things? Not really. Returning to NFL action after nearly 2 years at a time when everybody else is fully in the groove of the season is a baptism by fire that is particularly grueling for a QB. Now that he's conceivably gotten a chance to reacclimate to the game and go through a normal offseason program, the true start of the Watson era in Cleveland has arrived.
To the credit of the front office, he's being putting in a pretty good spot to succeed. Their running game is one of the best in the league with the perpetually underrated Nick Chubb running behind this old school road grater offensive line (Joel Bitonio, Wyatt Teller, Ethan Pocic, Jedrick Wills, Jack Conklin), Stefanski is a good playcaller who had this offense humming in 2020-which remains the only season he's gotten consistently good QB play in Cleveland and the collection of pass-catchers conceivably got more deeper and more dynamic this offseason with Elijah Moore-who could prove to be one of the most impactful pickups of the offseason if he goes back to being the player he was at the end of his rookie year in 2021 after a brutal sophomore campaign where he fell out of favor with the Jets coaching staff and rookie Cedric Tillman-a popular sleeper pick from this year's receiver class whose jump ball/redzone skills could easily translate to the pros- joining last year's 1-2 punch of Amari Cooper and David Njoku. That's plenty strong enough of a combination to give Watson the ability to return to his previous elite form, especially when you consider what the roster looked like during the end of his run in Houston in 2020. If Watson does stumble this season, it'll all be on him and his inability to reacclimate to the game after such long a time away, which would really be a pity to see since he's such a stand-up guy whose taken complete accountability for his previous actions.
Bottom Line:
While the Browns do have enough talent on paper to be a playoff team, I'm not particularly confident in their ability to overcome all of the question marks surrounding their roster and coaching staff at the moment.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 Record: 9-8 (3rd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (17th season)
Notable Additions: CB Patrick Peterson, G Isaac Seumalo, ILB Cole Holcomb
Notable Departures: CB Cameron Sutton, S Terrell Edmunds, ILB Devin Bush Jr.
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Their Shockingly Aggressive Approach to Adding Players in the Offseason
Kevin Colbert's 22-year tenure as Steelers GM came to a close immediately following the conclusion of the 2022 NFL Draft. His legacy will be defined by helping continue the unparalleled sustained excellence that the Steelers organization has enjoyed across the past 5 decades by helping bring 2 more rings to the Steel City, finding the perfect successor for Bill Cowher in Mike Tomlin and putting together one of the most impeccable drafting records of any executive in the history of the sport. Omar Khan-who had worked in the Steelers front office since 2001 and was Colbert's top lieutenant from 2016-21-was tapped to be his replacement. In his 1st season with complete roster control, Khan immediately proved that he wasn't Colbert 2.0.
While he wasn't afraid to be aggressive in the draft and sacrifice picks to move up the board, Colbert wasn't a big proponent of building through free agency. Given that he was able to bring in guys like Troy Polamalu, James Harrison, Ike Taylor, Casey Hampton, Brett Keisel, Ben Roethlisberger, Heath Miller, Willie Parker, Lawrence Timmons, Ramon Foster, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Cameron Heyward, T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith via the draft and UDFA pool, it's completely understandable why he preferred to build rosters with homegrown talent. Now it wouldn't be fair to say that Khan is devaluing the draft, he just also happens to see the value of addressing needs through free agency and man, did he put together a bold inaugural class.
Patrick Peterson turned back the clock with his borderline shutdown play with the Vikings last season and should easily fill the top corner slot vacated by Cameron Sutton-who signed with the Lions in free agency. Isaac Seumalo is a well-rounded guard who amounted a ton of big game experience with the Eagles that is exact kind of player this young group needs to take the next step. Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts should provide the smart, steady play at inside linebacker that they failed to get out of Devin Bush and Myles Jack a year ago. As shockingly slow and unengaged as he looked with the Rams last year, Allen Robinson-who was acquired in a trade-is the perfect distressed asset to roll the dice on given how good he was when healthy during his time with the Jaguars and Bears. Signing Chandon Sullivan over Arthur Maulet makes less sense to me since they're paying more for comparable players, but it's a 1-year deal and he's not a bad player by any stretch. Best of all? All of these veteran additions are projected starters and none of them are making more than $8 mil per year. If these moves pan out, don't be surprised if this how Khan continues to do business this way moving forward.
In terms of the always accurate and never silly draft grading process, Khan also managed to earn high marks for his 1st draft. Broderick Jones is a prototypical massive, athletic anchor of a modern day offensive line that is being viewed as their left tackle of the future despite currently sitting behind Dan Moore Jr.-whose started there each of the past 2 seasons-on the depth chart, Keeanu Benton is a space-eating nose tackle with some pass-rushing pop that will look to continue the rich legacy of the Steelers interior defensive lineman being total matchup nightmares, 6'4, 240 lb pass-rushing specialist Nick Herbig has a speed/strength-driven skill set that's not all that different from fellow University of Wisconsin alumni Watt and being able to land the son of a Steeler great that Colbert inherited when he took over the job by selecting corner Joey Porter Jr. with the 1st pick of the 2nd round wasn't just a great sentimental pick, it was a needed long-term investment in the corner spot since Peterson is 33 and projected #2 corner Levi Wallace is set to hit free agency after this season. Khan's approach is certainly bigger and riskier than Colbert's, but if Steelers history repeats itself, he could end up being just as successful.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Najee Harris' Effectiveness as an Every-Down Back
In 2021, Najee Harris' uninspiring 3.9 YDS per carry average could easily be explained away by the Steelers horrible offensive line play. In 2022, the Steelers offensive line improved quite a bit with the additions of center Mason Cole and guard James Daniels, Harris managed to get that number down to 3.8 YPC. Harris' productivity gets even more alarming when you take a gander how the other backs did last season. Rookie Jaylen Warren was viewed as an active threat to his starting job due to his explosiveness and vision when he was out there as a change of pace option as he averaged a pretty great 4.9 YPC. Even the notoriously plodding Benny Snell was able to muster up 4.5 YPC in his occasional mop-up role.
After what he did in 2022, you have to begin to question why Harris is the uncontested starter. There's just no reason to give a guy whose relatively ineffective as a rusher and a respectable pass-catcher out of the backfield at best the kind of playing time that allows him to get 300+ touches per season. How does that help a team that will always be committed to the run under an old school meathead coach like Mike Tomlin win games?
Warren proved as a rookie that he can run, catch passes and hold up in pass protection at a solid clip, so why not at least throw him in a timeshare with Harris? His explosiveness would add a sincere home-run threat to their offense that Harris simply hasn't provided thus far and would likely give Kenny Pickett more freedom to take off himself and make open throws downfield since defenses would have to be more committed to stopping the run. Giving Harris a final crack at being a workhorse to start the year is fair considering that the Steelers invested a 1st round pick in him, but if he continues to look like the same uninspiring runner managing averaging 2-4 YDS 98% of the time he touches the ball and occasionally diving into the endzone he's been over the past 2 seasons, Warren needs to be inserted into the lineup right away.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: A Meaningful Year 2 Jump for Kenny Pickett
The lows from Pickett's 2022 season were among the ugliest I've ever seen from a rookie QB. His 1st start versus the Bills was a textbook example of someone not being ready for the bright lights as he made bad decision after bad decision over all 4 quarters of play, the ugliness that transpired in his paltry performance in the Battle of Pennsylvania game in Philadelphia shouldn't be uttered to anyone and his work in the redzone all season long was concerning as he only completed 38.6% of his passes and threw 5 TD's inside the 20 over his 13 game appearances (12 starts).
Despite all of these red flags and his generally unimpressive stat line (2,404 YDS/7 TD's/9 INT's/63 CMP%/237 Rushing YDS/3 TD's), some flourishes of real potential shined through. His game-winning drive that was capped off with a beautiful 14-YD TD pass to George Pickens in snowy conditions versus the Raiders on Christmas Eve was the stuff of legend, his efficiency as a passer shined through with his excellent accuracy in a few games (Week 7 against the Dolphins, Week 12 versus the Colts, the aforementioned Christmas Eve game against the Raiders) and the resilience he showed after going 2-4 as a starter (as well as losing the Week 4 contest against the Jets in which he replaced Mitch Trubisky after halftime) to regroup and finish the season going 5-0 in games he completed down the stretch (he exited their Week 14 loss to the Ravens in the 1st quarter with a concussion) is pretty impressive.
If he cleans up his redzone passing, makes better decisions and isn't afraid to let it rip when called upon, he'll be well-positioned to make the type of sizable leap he needs to get the Steelers back in a position to compete in the division, if not the conference. Their line should improve with Seumalo and (possibly) Jones coming in to the mix, Dionate Johnson has had a strong camp and appears eager to put his underwhelming 2022 behind him and putting Robinson in the slot alongside the established trio of Johnson, Pickens and Pat Friermuth gives Pickett the luxury of being able to spread the ball across the field in any situation. How much additional responsibility Tomlin and OC Matt Canada feel comfortable giving him in year #2 could ultimately dictate just how much better Pickett gets this season, but if he can prove his game has been cleaned up enough to put more of the offensive responsibilities on his shoulders, the powers that be could feel compelled to open up their offense a bit more than expected and that would be the most exciting thing to happen to the Steelers in roughly 5 years.
Predicted Standings:
1.Baltimore Ravens (11-6)
2.Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
3.Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7)
4.Cleveland Browns (6-11)
No comments:
Post a Comment