Atlanta Falcons
2022 Record: 7-10 (4th in NFC South)
Head Coach: Arthur Smith (3rd season)
Notable Additions: S Jessie Bates, DE Calias Campbell, DT/DE David Onyemata
Notable Departures: CB Casey Hayward, CB Isaiah Oliver, QB Marcus Mariota
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Arrival of Bijan Robinson
With Arthur Smith being firmly on the hot seat entering his 3rd season in Atlanta, GM Terry Fontenot decided to give the head coach a piece that could help him stick around in Atlanta long-term when they selected Bijan Robinson in the 1st round of this year's draft. Smith-who runs arguably the most run-dominant offense in the NFL right now-probably lovingly embraced Fontenot once the pick was sent in to the league and spent the next 72 hours on a euphoric football bender drawing up plays for the young back.
At a time where the running back position is in a state of crisis, Robinson is the rare back that a team could conceivably build their entire offense around in the modern NFL. He's a patient runner with excellent vision and the toughness/elusiveness to shed tackles and make defenders miss in the open field, and his pass-catching/route-running skills are so refined that he's capable of flexing out to the slot on a regular basis. At the bare minimum, Robinson is the most electrifying, well-rounded RB prospect to enter the league since Saquon Barkley and the possibilities of what he can do in an offense that has a good line and a pair of exciting passing game weapons in Drake London and Kyle Pitts have to be a source of endless excitement for Smith.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Desmond Ridder Doesn't Allow Them to Open Up Their Offense
Nothing crippled the Falcons more in 2022 than Marcus Mariota's limitations as a passer. Their stopgap QB's shaky completion percentage (61.3%) and reluctance to throw the ball downfield led to a low-volume pass offense that gave rookie Drake London-who looked great when the ball came his way-very few meaningful opportunities per game and regularly relegated receiving weapon Kyle Pitts to blocking duty. That kind of baffling utilization of precious passing game resources is frankly unacceptable in the modern NFL and if the Falcons hadn't ended up winning 7 games last year, there's at least a decent chance Smith would've gotten fired because of it.
Going into 2023, there's a glimmer of hope that this won't be the case once again given how Desmond Ridder played once he became the starter in the final quarter of the season. Specifically in the final 3 games, Ridder looked pretty assured as a passer as he cleared 200 YDS twice and did a good job of feeding the ball to London whenever he was open-he eclipsed 90 YDS in 2 of those games and was targeted 8+ times in all 3. The team ended up going 2-1 in these games and it was clear even in that small sample size that Smith was more comfortable with calling pass plays with Ridder under center than he ever was with Mariota.
There's a couple of pressing concerns surrounding Ridder's passing ability being strong enough to provide the team with the freedom they need to really open up the offense 1. 4 games is far too small of a sample size to draw any meaningful conclusions about the offense-especially since the Falcons weren't playing for anything by that point of the season. 2.London is really the only receiver he has playing experience with since Pitts was sidelined with a torn MCL while Ridder was the starter last year and the only other veteran receiver returning from last year's team is KhaDarel Hodge (Mack Hollins and Scotty Miller are expected to be the other top targets next to London and Pitts this year). Failure to open up the offense is not an option for Smith or Ridder-whose job security beyond this season is completely fluid given that they only invested a 3rd round pick in him, so it would advantageous for all parties to find a way to make this offense a more efficient, dynamic product that makes proper use of all of the personnel they have at their disposal ASAP.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Their Defense Coming Together
Anecdotally, it feels like it's been at least 2 decades since the Falcons have had a good defense (in reality, 2017 was the last time). A number of good players such as Keith Brooking, Brent Grimes and post-Jets John Abraham have rolled through there during this stretch, but it always seems like they're giving up between 28 and 42 points and getting burned for multiple big plays in nearly every game. Last year was no different as they ranked between 23rd and 25th in the league in the majority of the important defensive metrics. Since Smith was ultimately retained, DC Dean Pees voluntereed to be the one to go to the guillotine instead announcing his "retirement" from coaching in January.
Pees' exit helped usher in what might be the single most significant change the Falcons defense has seen in recent memory. On the coaching side, Ryan Nielsen-who served as the Saints co-defensive coordinator in 2022 and defensive line coach from 2017-21-was brought on to be the new DC, longtime DB coach Jerry Gray-who most recently served as the DB coach/passing game coordinator for the Packers over the past 2 seasons-was hired as a defensive assistant/assistant head coach and they let go of the entire defensive staff from last season outside of linebackers coach Frank Bush and low level assistants Matt Pees and Lanier Goethie.
Nielsen is set to keep the defense in a 3-4 base alignment and as a Dennis Allen acolyte, his Cover 2-driven system won't be too radical of a departure from what they ran under Pees. As long as the results are better, the brass probably won't care if the scheme looks more or less the same.
What really makes this approach to defense different is how aggressively they attacked the free agent market to find new starters. Headlining their additions is 2020 All-Pro selection Jessie Bates. The veteran safety had his ups-and-downs during 5 years with the Bengals, but he's a certified ballhawk whose highs are as high as any safety in the league and the constant threat of INT's (at least 3 in all but 1 season of his career) he provides will be much appreciated on a Falcons team who only had 10 picks a year ago.
The defensive line also got a boost with the surprising addition of Calias Campbell, who opted to come to the Falcons over a more clear contender after the Ravens cut ties with him back in March. While he's not quite as impactful as he was during his time with the Cardinals and Jaguars during the 2010's, he remains a rock solid inside/outside defensive lineman who can contribute as a run-defender, pass-rusher and respected veteran leader in the locker room
Rounding out the spoils from their big spring shopping spree are David Onyemata, Kaden Elliss, Bud Dupree and Jeff Okudah. Onyemata and Elliss have the previous experience with Nielsen in New Orleans that should allow them to make a smooth transition as well as provide support for their new teammates who are picking the system, Dupree is coming off a pair of injury-riddled, underwhelming seasons with the Titans but his previous success as a pass-rusher with the Steelers makes him an intriguing dice roll for them to make and early positive reports out of camp indicate that he could be in line for a bounceback season and Jeff Okudah-who has had a rough landing in the NFL with prolonged stretches of poor play and suffering a torn Achilles in his 1st 3 pro seasons after being selected 3rd overall by the Lions in the 2020 draft-will have the golden opportunity to start anew with the Falcons as he enters the final year of his rookie deal.
Between these new pickups and the returning players that appear set to join the starting lineup (Troy Andersen, Dee Alford), the Falcons will have just 4 returning starters from 2022 across their entire defense (Grady Jarrett, A.J. Terrell, Richie Grant, Lorenzo Carter). As drastic as this is, such a high degree of change was needed for this group to start fresh after stinking up the joint over the past 2 seasons. Whether it makes much of a difference remains to be seen, but they have the right idea and the track records of the majority of these players are strong enough to be relatively optimistic about their ability to make some notable progress.
Bottom Line:
In this wide open NFC South, the Falcons appear to have the strongest overall collection of players, thus making them the favorite to win the division for the 1st time since 2016.
Carolina Panthers
2022 Record: 7-10 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Frank Reich (1st season)
Notable Additions: RB Miles Sanders, WR Adam Thielen, S Vonn Bell
Notable Departures: WR D.J. Moore, OLB Corey Littleton, RB D'Onta Foreman
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Frank Reich Being Hired as Head Coach
Replacing the great Ron Rivera with a career college football bozo in Matt Rhule that was completely overmatched in the pros from the jump was a colossal misfire that started the David Tepper-era in Carolina off on a horrible note. For his 2nd HC hiring, Tepper and GM Scott Fitterer went in a much more sensible direction by going with Frank Reich. The Panthers were looking to rebuild their offense after 4 straight seasons of struggling immensely on that side of the ball and given Reich's track record dating back to his time with the Eagles, he's a good person to trust with that gig.
Prior to last season's Matt Ryan/Sam Ehlinger-led disaster that got him unjustifiably fired in November, his offenses during his time with the Colts ranked in the top 10 in scoring during 3 of his initial 4 seasons with the team (the outlier was in 2019 when Jacoby Brissett was thrust into the starting role in late August after Andrew Luck's sudden retirement and they still finished 17th) and given his success with all sorts of personnel situations over the years (leaning on Jonathan Taylor in 2021, letting Luck chuck it 40 times per game in 2018), he's gone against the stubborn, ego-centric nature of coaching football by adapting his system/playcalling tendencies to the players that are on the roster. While this season has the potential to be really ugly given the state of the roster right now, Bryce Young's future is in great hands with Reich at the helm.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Bryce Young Not Being in an Ideal Position to Succeed
The QB-needy Panthers burning a bunch of draft capital to trade up from #9 to #1 to select Young is a move that not too many people are going to have an issue with. However, including their established #1 wideout D.J. Moore-who was under contract for the next 3 seasons-in the deal is a total head-scratcher. Top receivers aren't exactly easy to find in the NFL and there's no better friend that a young QB can have than a legit star at the position (why do you think the Bears were so motivated to get Moore from the Panthers in their trade for the #1 pick after giving Justin Fields so little WR help in his 1st 2 seasons?). Trading the one you had away just feels counterintuitive to an operation that is seeking to drastically reinvent itself on the offensive side of the ball.
Getting rid of Moore is just the most obvious, self-imposed symptom of a greater problem for the Panthers: They're not putting Young in a great position to succeed right away. I believe that the collection of talent surrounding him on offense right now is easily among the least imposing of any group in the league right now.
The Moore-less receiver group is now led by 33-year old Adam Thielen-who looked like he was running in mud last year with the Vikings, D.J. Chark-whose constant bumps and bruises have prevented him from building on the potential he flashed during the 2019 season with the Jaguars and rookie Jonathan Mingo-a Combine/Pro Day standout who is a gamble to say the least after putting up unimpressive numbers (112 REC/1,758 YDS/11 TD's in 41 games over 4 seasons) and battling multiple injuries while at Ole Miss. A quick look at the career output of new starting running back Miles Sanders will reveal that he greatly benefited from the emergence of Jalen Hurts and increased dynamism of the Eagles offense a year ago as he not only set new career highs in rushing YDS (1,269) and TD's (11) but demolished his previous ones (867 and 6 respectively). Safe to say, he's at a heightened risk to fall back down-to-earth now that he's part of an offense that doesn't have that kind of firepower on it. Hayden Hurst was an alright safety valve at tight end for the Bengals last season, but that's basically the ceiling for him. And to top it all off, their offensive line (Ikem Ekonwu, Taylor Moton, Austin Corbett, Brady Christensen, Bradley Bozeman) will be continuing their process of trying to gel together after a not exactly horrendous, not exactly great debut (to be fair, having the rare luxury of having continuity at all 5 spots along with position coach James Campen being retained by Reich should benefit them).
Young's struggles in the preseason only lend more credence to the questions surrounding his supporting cast on offense. If what we've seen far from this group is indicative of what their offense will look like in the regular season, the Panthers could end up handing the Bears the top pick in the draft in back-to-back years.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Their Defense Stepping Up and Allowing Their Offense to Go Through Growing Pains
The only real antidote to a lack of offensive firepower and a rookie quarterback dealing with the difficult transition to the NFL is a strong defense. While the Panthers finished 19th in scoring defense, 18th against the run and 22nd against the pass last year under Phil Snow and Rhule at the beginning of the year and Steve Wilks and Al Holcomb for the rest of it, they did have a group of young ascending stars in Jaycee Horn, Derrick Brown, Brian Burns and Frankie Luvu that shined. That foursome alongside the new veteran additions of Vonn Bell, Shy Tuttle and Justin Houston and longtime defensive captain Shaq Thompson could provide new DC Ejiro Evereo with the solid foundation he needs to build something special.
Building something from scratch will be a new challenge for Evereo. When he got to Denver last year, he pretty much just had to not mess with what Vic Fangio had left behind and it worked as the Broncos once again had one of the better defenses in the league. While that is admittedly pretty insulting to Evereo's coaching ability and downplays his efforts to maintain the group's level of play and help Patrick Surtain II make a huge leap in year #2, a coach's job is much easier when there's already a blueprint in place and people talented enough to execute it.
What Evereo needs to do to make this group shine is to get other players to step up and support their stars. The pass-rush next to Burns and Luvu (Houston, Marquis Haynes, Yetur Gross-Matos) needs to be more consistent. The corners surrounding Horn (Donte Jackson, C.J. Henderson, box safety convert Jeremy Chinn) need to stop providing defenses with the luxury of being able to avoid throwing in the direction of the 2021 1st round pick by providing them with easy alternative ways to move the ball downfield. Other guys on the interior (Tuttle, DeShawn Williams, Henry Anderson) need to take advantage of the gaps that Brown creates to help stop the run. There's potential all over this group-especially with guys who have the type of athleticism that Chinn, Jackson and Gross-Matos have-it'll just be up to Evereo to get them to play smarter and harder than they've played in the past.
In the modern NFL, expecting a team to hold their opponents to less than 17 points per game may be a bit ambitious. But if Evereo can get this group in the sweet spot of 17-20 per game, then the Panthers could be in a great spot to tough out some wins and have a spot of legitimately competing in their division.
Bottom Line:
Short of Bryce Young coming in and popping right away, the 1st year of the rebuild appears destined to be a rough one in Charlotte.
New Orleans Saints
2022 Record: 7-10 (3rd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dennis Allen (2nd season)
Notable Additions: QB Derek Carr, RB Jammal Williams, DT Nathan Shepard
Notable Departures: DE Marcus Davenport, DT/DE David Onyemata, ILB Kaden Eliss
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Derek Carr Bringing Stability to the QB Spot
The 1st 2 seasons of the post Drew Brees-era in New Orleans certainly haven't lacked in drama. Due to a combination of injuries, benchings and good old fashioned experimentation, the Saints have been forced to use a platoon approach at QB that has seen the likes of Jameis Winston, Andy Dalton, Taysom Hill, Trevor Siemian and for 1 painful Monday Night Football game versus the Dolphins in December 2021, Ian Book draw starts. While this revolving door didn't lead to a total collapse (they're a slightly below average 16-18 since Brees retired), it did cause a frustrating lack of continuity and chemistry that damaged the overall effectiveness of their offense. This offseason, they decided to embrace a strategy that they at least hope will put an end to their prolonged run of rapid turnover at the position by signing Derek Carr to be their new starting quarterback.
As Raiders fans can attest to, getting excited about Carr is a fool's errand. His toughness has been a constant source of scrutiny throughout his career, he has a gift for making some of the ugliest unforced errors that lead to INT's that you'll ever a pro QB make and he has precisely 2 winning records, 1 playoff start and 0 playoff wins under his belt in 9 NFL seasons. Not exactly the kind of resume that will get somebody into Canton one day. However, the man is still an average-to-slightly-above average NFL starting quarterback and a boring, competent quarterback is exactly what the Saints need right now.
What Carr can do that Winston, Dalton or any of the other jabronis they've trotted out there over the past 2 seaons can't is be a steady presence at the position. Outside of the back injury that ended his career-best season in 2016, Carr has avoided major injury in his career thus far. That's probably the #1 reason the Saints pursued him. Staying in the lineup allows for the development of chemistry with receivers and keeps the playcalling consistent, which is imperative for a group that is heavily relying on 2nd year players Chris Olave and Rashid Shaheed and newcomers Jammal Williams and rookie Kendre Miller to make plays.
Outside of his ability to stay on the field, Carr is a pretty accurate passer with a quick release and good enough arm strength to hit receivers downfield on the regular. Given Winston's gunslinger status and Dalton's dink-and-dunk approach, a QB who can make most of the throws on the field consistently should make a substantial difference on their passing attack. This really is a bizarrely perfect marriage between player and team and it could give Carr the true sense of home and belonging that he never really found with the Raiders.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Getting Their Offensive Line Back on Track
The days of the Saints having a powerhouse offensive line are over and 2022 was a crippling reminder of just how far they've fallen. Aided by left tackle Trevor Penning effectively having to redshirt his rookie season after being sidelined from late August to late November with a torn foot ligament, the Saints group (save for stalwart right tackle Ryan Ramcyzk of course) played pretty poorly-allowing 38 sacks and failing to aid a single running back on the roster that got regular touches to get above 4 YDS per carry as their rushing offense finished 19th in the league. While Penning returning at full health and sending James Hurst back to the bench is enough to inspire some belief that they'll be better in 2023, the fact that their entire interior line from a year ago is coming back (Andrus Peat, Ceaser Ruiz, Erik McCoy) is reason enough to have some pause before choosing to buy into this group.
While Doug Marrone is a good enough offensive line coach to make a notable positive impact on a player's performance, I'm not confident that guys like Ruiz and Peat's games can be fixed by coaching at this point. They've consistently below average NFL lineman who have been around for long enough to prove any improvements to technique or discipline they've made over the years have made a minimal difference in their overall play. There's just a point where a player is what they are and I think both of these guys may be at the point.
McCoy, on the other hand, is somebody who has proven he can be good in this league. He was actually a borderline top 10 center in both 2019 and 2020, but he's regressed to a below-average level in the past 2 seasons as he's gotten flagged more often and struggled to serve as an anchor in the run game like he did in the past. A return to 2019/2020 levels for McCoy would make a huge impact on this group, especially as they try to reinvent their running game with the additions of Williams and Miller alongside Alvin Kamara.
Getting this group back to the glory days where guys like Jahri Evans, Zach Strief and Ben Grubbs were popping people in the mouth and ensuring Drew Brees got hit roughly twice per 100 dropbacks isn't necessary or attainable. But if they want to lower the odds of Carr becoming the latest Saints QB to get hurt and successfully revitalize the running game, they're going to need to be much better than they were in 2022.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Remaining Steady on Defense
What kept the Saints semi-competitive last season was the play of their defense. Outside of their struggles against the run (24th in the league), they were pretty great-finishing 2nd against the pass, tied for 5th in sacks and 9th in scoring defense. The path to repeating that success could present some problems as they had some pretty notable losses in the offseason. Longtime starting defensive lineman David Onyemata and Kaden Eliss-who had a breakout 2022 with 7 sacks-left for the Falcons in free agency and while the impact is lessened since Allen is the defensive playcaller, co-defensive coordinators Ryan Nielsen and Kris Richard are both gone and have been replaced by Joe Woods-whose previous 2 seasons with the Browns did some real damage to his previously pretty damn good track record as a DB coach/DC.
On the plus side, their starting secondary (Marshon Lattimore, Alontae Taylor, Bradley Roby, Tyrann Mathieau, Marcus Maye) is a full-go to start the year after collectively missing quite a bit of time last year, they addressed their defensive interior with the additions of run-stuffers Nathan Shepard and Khalen Saunders and rookie Bryan Breesee to fill Onyemata's hybrid DT/DE role and the departure of Marcus Davenport allows Carl Granderson to enter a full-time starting role on the edge-which he is well-deserving of after posting 8 sacks, 9 QB hits, 9 TFL's and 50 combined tackles in 2022. At the end of the day barring injury-they'll likely improve against the run and regress against the pass and as a pass-rush. As long as the collective group remains solid on the whole, they'll be in a good spot as a team.
Bottom Line:
Given the current state of the NFC, respectable play from Derek Carr and their defense should be enough to boost the Saints into the playoff picture.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2022 Record: 8-9 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Todd Bowles (2nd season)
Notable Additions: QB Baker Mayfield, G Matt Feiler, S Ryan Neal
Notable Departures: QB Tom Brady (retired), T Donovan Smith, G Shaq Mason
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Jamel Dean and Lavonte David Re-Signing in Free Agency
Committing to Tom Brady netted the Buccaneers what they hoped it would all along: A Super Bowl ring and the potential to win more for as long as he was there. Now, they're facing the consequences that came with signing Brady: Being in complete disarray now that he's gone. As they seek to pick up the pieces from this blessing turned curse, it's pretty cool that their top free agents Jamel Dean and Lavonte David opted to return to the team amidst all the uncertainty.
David remaining loyal to the Bucs isn't overly surprising. He's been with them for his entire career and at age 33 going on 34, retirement from football isn't too far off, leaving the place he's called home for the past 11 years can't be overly appealing-especially since he has a ring. Plus, this is a man who had the distinct pleasure of playing under Greg Schiano, Lovie Smith and Dirk Koetter to start his career. It's going to take some truly world class losing for this era to end up being the ugliest he's seen at Raymond James Stadium.
Dean, on the other hand, is kind of a shock. This offseason marked his 1st chance to really cash out in the NFL after playing on the modest rookie deal he earned as a 3rd round pick in 2019 and given how thin this free agent corner class was, he could've went to a number of different teams that have better odds of competing at a high level in the near future including the Lions, Vikings and Steelers. Sticking with Tampa shows that he has a sincere belief in what Todd Bowles and Jason Licht are building here while also providing the Bucs with the much-needed boost of having a physical outside corner whose improved in each season he's been in the league. Key members of the corps remaining in the fold once their current deals expire is going to be huge in shaping the future of this team and these two leading the charge and staying put is an encouraging early sign that they won't all go darting out of the building now that #12 isn't around.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Quarterback
The 2023 Brady succession plan came down to a QB competition between Baker Mayfield and 2021 2nd round pick Kyle Trask. Yesterday, it was revealed that Mayfield had won the job. What version of Mayfield shows up for Tampa will dictate the reaction to this news.
If the 2022 Rams/2020 Browns version of Mayfield shows up, they'll be fine. That Baker had some playmaking juice, generally made the right decisions while throwing downfield and showed some grit in crunchtime situations. If the 2022 Panthers/2021 Browns/2019 Browns Mayfield is the one they're stuck with, the cannons on the endzone pirate ship might get turned on him. That version of Baker plays sloppy, idiotic football and brings zero confidence or hustle to the huddle. As we witnessed with the absurd disparity in play we saw when he went from Carolina to LA last year, both outcomes are equally possible and there's no way to figure out which version of Mayfield they're getting until we see him on the field in real game action come September.
A crucial determining factor that can't be ignored when evaluating this situation is that we don't know just how much weight Mayfield is going to be asked to pull in this offense. New OC Dave Canales has never held this position before and thus, we have no clue what his scheme or playcalling preferences are. His status as a longtime Pete Carroll assistant could mean that he shares his affinity for running the football or maybe his background as a QB/WR coach makes him favor the pass.
What will be expected of Mayfield on the whole is similarly ambiguous. He could be a game manager. He could be unleashed as a regular ass quarterback making any and all throws across the entire field. It could be a combination of the two. Only Canales and Mayfield know for now and that's more than enough reason to alarm, confuse and intrigue the legions of Bucs fans out there as they take this next step into the great unknown without TB12.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Finding An Identity Outside of Tom Brady
Piggybacking off the ambiguity of what their offense will look like and what will be expected of Mayfield, what the hell is this team going to be about post-Brady? Will Bowles feel compelled to put his fingerprints on the operation and focus on defense and running the ball over dropping back to pass 50 times per game? Are they going to embrace the ways of Shanahan and McVay and commit to running an offense that prioritizes simplicity and efficiency with schemed-up play action passes and RPO's to make things easier for everyone or will they keep some of Brady's famously complex offensive principles in place? Will they be better suited for gritty rock fights where points are at a premium or track meets where everybody is gliding into the endzone? Are they going to nickel-and-dime there way down the field with chunk plays or will they take some downfield shots and utilize the home-run hitting ability of Mike Evans and rookie Trey Palmer? Will somebody step up to lead and subsequently have the team molded in their image? There are no wrong answers. They just need to find something that works for them and embrace it so they can begin to figure out who they really are as a group and not just how they complement Brady without stepping on his toes or forgetting to bow down to his greatness 24/7.
Bottom Line:
The Bucs have a good enough defense to remain in games. Whether the offense can do enough to help them win is another story entirely. Any outcome between 4 and 11 wins all feel likely to me right now.
Predicted Standings:
1.Atlanta Falcons (10-7)
2.New Orleans Saints (8-9)
3.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-10)
4.Carolina Panthers (4-13)
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