Atlanta Falcons
2020 Record: 4-12 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Arthur Smith (1st season)
Notable Additions: RB Mike Davis, RB/WR/KR Cordarrelle Patterson, S Duron Harmon
Notable Departures: WR Julio Jones, RB Todd Gurley, S Keanu Neal
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Arthur Smith
Offense hasn't really been a problem for the Falcons during the Matt Ryan era. Kyle Shanahan and Dirk Koetter oversaw some of the most explosive units in the league during their tenures as OC while even the unsuccessful Steve Sarkisian NFL experiment resulted in a perfectly competent group that was capable of scoring in bunches at any given moment.
Even with their established offensive success over much of the past decade, the arrival of Arthur Smith is still great news for the team. Smith turned a Titans offense that was extremely flat and predictable before he was promoted to OC into a straight up juggernaut that utilized the running and play action passing game as well as any offense in the league in just 2 years on the job. While not quite as loaded as the Titans group he's leaving, there's still a great corps of talent here that will provide Smith with an opportunity to implement a system that's at least pretty similar to the simple, power scheme he ran with the Titans. Now if Smith manages to prove that he picked up some leadership and game managing skills from his former boss Mike Vrabel, he'll have just about every tool he needs to become a successful head coach in the NFL at his disposal.
Biggest Question Mark: Mike Davis' Viability As A Top Back
As strong as Smith's scheming was with the Titans, having perhaps the most punishing brick shithouse power back of all time in Derrick Henry as the driving force behind the running attack certainly heavily contributed to the success. Now that's he moved on to Atlanta, he's tasked with finding a new guy to take over the very important lead back mantle in his run-driven system. This challenge was made particularly difficult by the Falcons having a very underwhelming rushing attack in 2020 (27th in the league) and subsequently gutting their entire depth chart after the season (Todd Gurley, Brian Hill, Ito Smith) save for 4th string back Qadree Ollision as a result of those woes.
The man that Smith and new GM Terry Fontenot decided to task with filling this vital role is Mike Davis. The 28-year old journeyman back resurrected his career in Carolina last season when he was called upon to replace the injured Christian McCaffery in the starting lineup and did a pretty admirable job of filling CMC's shoes (1,015 scrimmage YDS and 8 TD's in 15 games/12 starts). Despite Davis' pretty solid 2020 season, there are a couple of concerning stats that muddle his status as a workhouse back.
The first problematic number is his YPC (3.9). Putting up that blah of a number behind a completely fine Panthers o-line and without the burden of going up against stacked boxes that McCaffery faced when he lined up being the quarterback isn't exactly the most ringing endorsement of your rushing ability. The second alarming stat pertains to how much he faded after the hot 5 game start to his tenure as a starter. Defenses seemed to figure out his rushing/route running style pretty quickly as he posted less than 65 scrimmage YDS in 6 of the final 9 games he appeared in (he was inactive for the Week 17 contest against the Saints). Pair those average stats with a spotty usage rate in situations where he wasn't forced into the starting lineup and you have a guy that has a very cloudy outlook as he enters his 1st season as a full-time starting running back in the NFL.
If the Davis experiment doesn't work this season, the Falcons are going to have a very tough time trying to field a replacement. The current top backup is gadget player/return specialist Cordarrelle Patterson-who just isn't a natural rusher of the football and the battle for the #3 spot is between D'Onta Foreman-whose struggled to stay on an NFL roster after flashing a little bit as a rookie with the Texans back in 2017 and the aforementioned Ollision-who currently averages a whopping 2.3 YDS per carry through 2 NFL seasons. Unless Smith wants to completely abandon the principles that gained him this job in the first place, Davis is going to have to prove he's worthy of the huge and perhaps unwarranted gamble the Falcons are taking on him by treating him as a clear #1 back.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting Literally Anything Out of Their Defense
Defense quite simply just isn't in the Falcons DNA. This is a team that rode the strength of their offense to a Super Bowl appearance in 2016 and has continued to either win shootouts or get dusted as a result of not being able to stop anyone in the very erratic years that have followed that tragic near title run. Considering that they hired an offensive-minded head coach and still have a high-powered group in place led by Matt Ryan, Calvin Ridley and the potentially electrifying rookie tight end Kyle Pitts that are the clear stars of the operation, defense is still very much an afterthought for the Falcons.
What's been very confusing about the new regime's early approach is that they haven't done much to change this blatant deficiency. Rangey safety Richie Grant-who was selected in the 2nd round-was the only high draft pick they invested in on the defensive side of the ball and their free agency moves were limited to gambling on scrap heap young guys in an attempt to bolster their corner depth (Fabian Moreau), special teamers that occasionally moonlight as linebackers (Brandon Copeland) and a mediocre-to-decent veteran that has struggled to excel without other great DB's surrounding him (Duron Harmon).
The best hope for getting the level of defensive support they need to get out of being the team that can only win game by scoring a shit ton of points lies in the hands of defensive coordinator Dean Pees. Pees has worked some magic with suspect talent many times in the past and having a couple of cornerstone pieces that are in their middle of their primes (Grady Jarrett, Deion Jones) and some young players with high upsides (A.J. Terrell, Marlon Davidson, Grant) gives this a bit more of a ceiling than you'd expect to find on a team that ranked dead last against the pass and 19th in scoring defense a year ago. Whether he can get it done, especially after spending a year away from the game after a less than inspiriting stint with the Titans from 2018-19, is another question entirely, but the raw potential to build a viable-enough defense this team needs to successfully adapt Smith's established system is certainly there.
Bottom Line:
The lack of proven talent on their defense paired with this brutally tough division makes it hard to expect anything better than 5-7 win season.
Carolina Panthers
2020 Record: 5-11 (3rd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Matt Rhule (2nd season)
Notable Additions: QB Sam Darnold, OLB Hasson Reddick, T Cameron Erving
Notable Departures: QB Teddy Bridgewater, WR Curtis Samuel, DT Kawann Short
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Christian McCaffery's Return
The Panthers offense fared better than expected in McCaffery's-who missed 13 games with ankle and shoulder ailments-absence last year in large part due to the contributions of the starting receiver trio (D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Curtis Samuel-the former two of which cleared 1,000+ YDS for the year) and a stronger than expected performance from fill-in starter than Mike Davis. Despite the relative overperformance from these skills players, they were still ultimately a 5 win team with the 24th ranked scoring offense in football that greatly missed McCaffery's dynamism and nose for the endzone (McCaffery scored 6 TD's in just 3 games, Davis only got 8 in 15).
Having McCaffery be at 100% heading into the season is a godsend for this team. OC Joe Brady can cook up all sorts of weird, creative formations that make use of his versatility, the focus on McCaffery can open up more opportunities for Moore, Anderson and rookie Terrace Marshall Jr.-who is on track to replace Samuel as the team's #3 wideout- to make plays and Sam Darnold gets the luxury of having the help of an elite rusher/safety valve pass catcher out of the backfield to help ease his transition to Carolina. The stock of this team goes way up with a healthy McCaffery in the cards and it's possible they end up really surprising people if he can remain that way.
Biggest Question Mark: Sam Darnold
Even after 3 full seasons as an NFL starter, Sam Darnold is still a complete unknown. His failure with the Jets outside of his unfortunate stint with mono and the viral "I'm Seeing Ghosts!"mic'd up video from an ugly Monday Night Football game against the Patriots came from factors that were largely out of his control (coaching, offensive line/receiver play) and the fact that no other QB that started a game for the Jets from 2018-20 was able to win a single game further cements that he wasn't the root of the problems there.
So how do you reasonably evaluate someone who is coming from such a god awful situation? You really can't. Everything about Darnold's NFL potential is speculative. Yes, we saw him light things up back at USC in 2016. Yes, he's make some really spectacular plays at the pro level. Yes, he's still just 24 years old and there's a widespread belief that's he still got time to get back on the franchise QB path. However, there's not a shred of concrete evidence that the kid is ever going to be able to put it together at this level. The Panthers knew they were taking a gamble on Darnold when they traded for him and considering the cost of acquiring him (a 2nd, 4th and 6th round pick spread out over the course of 2 seasons), they're right to do it because the upside that's underneath all of the unknown is just too substantial to pass up on.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Darnold Being the Player People He Could Be
Now, let's just imagine that Darnold DOES pan out to be the big time, lightning bolt-throwing gunslinger that people were expecting him to be when he came out of USC. Think about how much of a morale booster it would be for a Panthers organization that has been in QB purgatory since Cam Newton's last winning season in 2017. All of the huge plays he could reel off with Christian McCaffery, D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall and David Moore by his side. The amount of material Jets fans could mine for their latest batch of misery sermons. Darnold's sudden turnaround upon leaving New York would really just be a beautiful story of perseverance that sports fans from all over the globe would happily eat up.
Since the secondary factors were so paramount to his failure with the Jets, coaching, offensive line and receivers should once again be heavily influencing Darnold's trajectory.
Even though nobody really has a read on just how good of a coach Brady really is just yet, we do know that helped mold Joe Burrow into the top-tier prospect he is today during his time at LSU and isn't the talent-suffocating stooge that Gase is.
While offensive line isn't exactly a point of strength for the Panthers (particularly on the interior where they're currently expected to start John Miller and Pat Eleflein at guard), the group is still nowhere near as bad as the ones he dealt with during his time with the Jets. Taylor Moton is one of the best right tackles in the league right now, Matt Paradis is still just a couple of years removed from a dominant season with the Broncos and Cameron Erving has held up surprisingly well since shifting to left tackle last season.
Lastly, it almost goes without saying that the receiver is easily the lowest area of concern from this bunch. This Panthers group is talented and deep enough that they honestly might be in contention for a top 5 overall slot in the entire league. Moore is the rare player that boasts both the speed and tracking ability to be a home-run hitter downfield and the route running/ YAC combo to make things happen underneath, Anderson is coming off a career year and has the added benefit of having played with Darnold before (although some would argue that their connection while they were with the Jets wasn't particularly strong) and Marshall Jr. has looked like a deadly deep/redzone threat during the preseason On top of all that, McCaffery is arguably the most reliable and dangerous pass-catching running back in the league right now. Fair or not, Darnold has 2 years at most to prove that's he a franchise-caliber QB and it's going to be fascinating to see if the change in scenery can bring all of the untapped potential to the surface as well as put a stop to the string of backbreaking bad breaks that have set him back in the past.
Bottom Line:
Sam Darnold's play and Christian McCaffery's health will likely be the deciding factors between the Panthers being a pleasant surprise and a nondescript middler.
New Orleans Saints
2020 Record: 12-4 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (15th season)
Notable Additions: CB Brian Poole, WR Chris Hogan, RB Devonta Freeman
Notable Departures: QB Drew Brees (retired), CB Janoris Jenkins, TE Jared Cook
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Jameis Winston
There's plenty of practical reasons to get excited about this year's Saints team. Alvin Kamara is in the midst of his prime, their excellent defense was able to keep all of their key cogs together for another year after franchising star safety Marcus Williams back in March and they still have the best tackle duo in football (Terron Armstead, Ryan Ramcyzk) leading their offensive line into battle every week. As important as these dependable pieces are to the success of the Saints operation, their expected strong performance makes them predictable and kind of boring. What they need is a true wild card that can come in and wage war on monotony with an endless supply of chaotic energy. Enter Jameis Winston.
After nearly 15 years of experiencing the same cycle of regular season dominance and postseason collapses with Drew Brees at the helm, the Saints are being blessed with a quarterback that is the exact opposite. The Jameis Winston Experience is akin to watching a DCU movie or going to a cheap buffet: You don't know if you're walking into something that's really spectacular or a hulking trash heap, but it's going to be really memorable either way.
Being deprived of Winston's gunslinging theatrics in 2020 is lowkey one of the reasons why the season was so god damn boring. Going through 17 weeks of action without seeing any of Winston's gonzo magic just felt wrong. Guys like Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Rodgers and Lamar Jackson might play the position with a lot of electricity, but no other quarterback right can provide the level of strong, animated reactions that Winston does when he is blindly chucking darts downfield without a care in the world about where it lands.
The term "backyard football" is egregiously overused when discussing the mobility and improvisation skills of modern QB's, but that's really the best way to describe how Winston plays. Hell, I'd argue that Winston is the only true backyard QB because he's the only guy that I've ever seen play the position with such a pure level of freedom that it feels like he's not even following a game plan or being coached at all. Of course that's an absolutely reckless and insane way to play a game that's so complex and usually has an outcome determined by time of possession, but the simplicity and lack of structure to his approach is just fascinating to behold. The fact that it seems like the Saints QB job seems like its Winston's to lose right now is the best possible news for the league and I look forward to seeing this gridiron cowboy ride again.
Biggest Question Mark: Who is Going to Player Receiver in Michael Thomas' Absence
This preseason buzz about Marquez Callaway-which should only accelerate after his ridiculous performance against the Jaguars on Monday night-better translate to the regular season because the Saints pass-catchers situation is more dire than ever. At least during Michael Thomas' extended absence last season, the Saints had vets like Jared Cook and Emmanuel Sanders to lean on when Alvin Kamara needed a break from being the sole offensive playmaker. Now with Thomas once again out until at least the beginning of October as he recoups from offseason ankle surgery, the Saints will have to shuffle through their seemingly always questionable depth chart and attempt to get some contributions from unexpected places.
Even if Callaway turns out to be something, an undrafted 2nd year player can't be the only reliable option in the passing game. The problem is that the rest of the supporting cast save for rookie Kawann Baker are known, uninspired commodities. Tre'Quan Smith has yet to capitalize on all of the "breakout potential" that national pundits has claimed he has for the past 36 years, Chris Hogan was playing professional lacrosse over football just a couple months ago, Lil'Jordan Humphrey is practice squad fodder whose only seen the field in emergency situations, Kevin White is a tragic reclamation project that's yet to make any real progress in his NFL comeback and new starting tight end Adam Trautman-who was a popular pick to be their new #2 target heading into 2021-has barely received any snaps in the preseason and just managed to get dinged up in Monday's contest with the Jaguars. The Saints have always had enough offensive juice in the past to overcome their lack of secondary pass-catching options, but if Callaway doesn't stick or god forbid Kamara gets hurt, the front office's longstanding failure to maintain receiver/tight end depth will finally end up really hurting the team.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: A Healthy Alvin Kamara
Everything I've mentioned above about the Saints points to the obvious: Their offense is going to be more reliant on Kamara than before. Now this seems like a kind of wild statement to make about a guy whose gained 6,164 scrimmage YDS and scored 58 TD's on 998 touches during his 4 seasons with the Saints, but it's true. The entire offense is pretty much going to run through him until Thomas gets back and nobody knows just how effective their All-Pro wideout will be when he returns.
Kamara is still just 26 years old and has managed to avoid a catastrophic injury thus far (he's only missed 4 games in his career), but considering the ridiculous volume he gets, he's very susceptible to sustaining something serious and 2021 would be the worst possible time for Kamara to be sidelined for a significant period of time.
In his absence, the thin support beams that are holding up the Saints offense would come crashing down in swift, spectacular fashion. Backup Latavius Murray is a perfectly adequate rusher and Winston could definitely hit some home runs that would get them out of some jams, but the lack of playmaking prowess and more importantly, versatility on the field would completely handcuff this offense and put a ton of pressure on their defense to drive the bus-which isn't something this team has had ever had to do during the Sean Payton-era. There's already plenty of questions about the functionality of this offense with Kamara in it and that shit would turn to full blown panic in an instant without him.
Bottom Line:
A regression in the 1st season of the post-Drew Brees era in New Orleans seems inevitable, but there's still enough talent here for them to compete for a playoff spot if they can stay healthy and Winston can keep his turnovers somewhat under control.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2020 Record: 11-5 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Bruce Arians (3rd season)
Notable Addition: RB Giovani Bernard
Notable Departures: T Joe Haeg, RB LeSean McCoy, ILB Deon Bucannon
Biggest Reason for Excitement: They Retained Every Single Starter from Last Season
This is perhaps the most egregious case of "Kings Stays Kings" to occur during the NFL's free agency era. Not even the 2020 Chiefs-who only lost 2 full time starters from their 2019 Super Bowl Champion squad (excluding COVID opt-out Laurent DuVernay-Tardif and Damien Williams) and one of them was punter Dustin Colquitt-were able to achieve that level of continuity. If anything they got marginally better by bringing in Giovani Bernard to replace National Museum of History Exhibit LeSean McCoy as their 3rd running back. The takeaway from this? The Tom Brady effect has traveled to Tampa (outside of franchise tag recipient Chris Godwin, the notable veteran free agents including Shaq Barrett, Lavonte David and Ndamukong Suh all re-signed for slightly below market value ), which is bad news for the rest of the league
Biggest Question Mark: Tom Brady Being Able to String Together Another Ageless Season
I'm not naïve enough to think this has a strong likelihood of happening, but it's the most feasible question mark possible for a defending Super Bowl champion that lost no key pieces and doesn't have a ton of older players.
The top thing that's been glossed over about Brady's largely impressive 2020 Super Bowl campaign was how uncharacteristically sloppy he looked at times. Could those struggles have been a product of him having to learn a new offense and work with a completely new group of receivers for the first time in 20 years? Yes, particularly in the early portions of the year when the Bucs hadn't yet established their future championship form. Maybe the torn MCL he played with for most of the season is was a factor? Not likely considering the way he plays the position, but it's still a significant enough injury to not completely overlook. However, neither of these things are enough to explain or excuse moments like the 4 INT 2nd half debacle that almost cost the Bucs the trip to said Super Bowl or the 3 multi-INT games he had in November (Saints, Rams, Chiefs).
Brady has completely spat in the face of Father Time every step of the way thus far by continuing to win games and play championship caliber football nearly every time he steps on the field, but despite all that dominance, he's managed to put forth a higher (yet hardly backbreaking) volume of bad plays as he's aged and it's not unfathomable to think that number will go up in his age 44 season.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: The Defense Continuing The Strong Play They Displayed in the Playoffs
The secret weapon behind the Bucs Super Bowl run was the defense getting hot at the right time. After a pretty middling season where they displayed a pretty crippling vulnerability to the pass (they ranked 21st in the league in YDS and 20th in TD's allowed), the group turned into a complete lockdown unit in the playoffs that managed to completely shut down Drew Brees, Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes over the same 3 year period (ironically, the only QB who did any real damage against them in the playoffs was Football Team backup Taylor Henicke in his 2nd career start). Now, the big question is has this group turned the corner or was this just a case of a middling group getting hot at the right time?
The available evidence is really split. On the plus side, their run defense has been consistently stifling for the past 3 years now (they've ranked 1st in the league in back-to-back seasons) and Todd Bowles is a creative and aggressive enough defensive mind to ensure that their pass rush is able to consistently make an impact. On the negative side, they have an extremely young secondary (Carlton Davis, Jamel Dean, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Antoine Winfield Jr, Jordan Whitehead) that is inevitably subject to the volatility that comes with playing those positions at the pro level and their highly touted inside linebacker Devin White is just as likely to miss a tackle or get torched in coverage as he is to make one of the eye-popping highlight-reel plays that have helped greatly inflate his reputation in the league. Ultimately, the answer will likely come down to how well Bowles can handle the development of the young guys and considering the strength of his track record, Bucs fans should fell very confident that this group is going to look like they did during their 2020 Super Bowl Run moving forward.
Bottom Line:
Barring a stunning rapid decline in play from Brady, the Bucs will once again be at the top of the mountain of Super Bowl contenders.
Projected Standings:
1.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (13-4)
2.New Orleans Saints (9-8)
3.Carolina Panthers (7-10)
4.Atlanta Falcons (5-12)
No comments:
Post a Comment