With the 2nd week of NFL Preseason action kicking off in a matter of hours, the carnival of excitement, anxiety, gloating and both valid and invalid second guessing otherwise known as Fantasy Football Draft SZN is now rapidly approaching. This also of course means that I'm obligated to start throwing my two cents in on some hot button issues surrounding the 2021 game, starting today with a list of some players that I believe are overvalued and should be avoided at their current draft position. Here are the guys at every major position that fall into that category this year.
Quarterback: Dak Prescott (Cowboys) (ADP: Yahoo!: 52.7 ESPN: 58.8)
Posting ridiculous yardage totals and a not overly concerning turnover rate in a very good statistical offense that almost always wins the time of possession battle has made Prescott a consistent elite QB1 option over the past few seasons. This established status has also managed to make Prescott exempt from the sizable ADP fall that a player coming back from a major season-ending injury would typically have. The reality is that slotting Prescott into his normal spot in the fantasy hierarchy is illogical and overly optimistic. Not only is the 28 year old coming off said major ankle injury that kept him out of the final 11 games in 2020, he's got a mystery arm/elbow ailment that required an MRI last week and has missed the bulk of the practice reps the team has taken over the past couple of weeks. All the uncertainty around his health ensures that paying the current high price (he's going in the overall QB4-7 range) would arguably be the single most reckless move you could possibly make on draft night.
Honorable Mentions: Matthew Stafford (Rams), Joe Burrow (Bengals), Ryan Fitzpatrick (Football Team)
Running Back: Austin Ekeler (Chargers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 17.3 ESPN: 14.8)
The Austin Ekeler mid-to-low level RB1 hype train continues to puzzle me greatly. I get that his pass-catching makes him a real asset in PPR leagues and he'll likely be better this year than he was during his injury-shortened 2020, but are the extra 0.5 to 1 points he picks up with every catch really enough to justify the investment of such a high draft pick? He continues to only get moderate volume in the running game (he averaged just 11.6 carries per game last year), has a very murky TD floor (outside of his 11 scores in 2019, he's only posted 9 career TD's over his other 3 NFL seasons including a paltry 3 in 10 games last season) and might not even be the uncontested starter at RB as Joshua Kelley and Josh Jackson are still lingering around to constantly threaten his workload on the ground. I'm not particularly high on any of the backs that are going in the early to middle portions of the 2nd save for Antonio Gibson, but if my hand was forced and Gibson or none of the top WR's (DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Brown, Justin Jefferson) going in that range were available, I'd be comfortable taking any of them (Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Joe Mixon, even Najee Harris-whose unsettled o-line scares the hell out of me) over Ekeler.
Honorable Mentions: Najee Harris (Steelers), D'Andre Swift (Lions), Myles Gaskin (Dolphins)
Wide Receiver: CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) (ADP: Yahoo!: 36.7 ESPN: 36.3 )
If Prescott was healthy, Lamb would probably be my choice for a 2021 breakout candidate at WR. He sincerely has one of the most versatile and well-rounded games of any wideout that's come into the league in recent years and in the right situation, he could conceivably be among the league leaders in receptions, YDS and TD's. The problem is that there's a very real possibility that either Garrett Gilbert, Ben DiNiucci or Cooper Rush is going to be under center for an extended period of time this year and if that ends up being the case, Lamb will once again be relegated to the WR4 dip-and-dunk possession receiver status he was at after Prescott went down last season.
Honorable Mentions: Amari Cooper (Cowboys), Julio Jones (Titans), Diontae Johnson (Steelers)
Tight End: Kyle Pitts (Falcons) (ADP: Yahoo!: 50.6 ESPN: 54.9)
Nothing shines a light on how the horrible depth at the tight end position quite like the comical overdrafting of a rookie tight end. For comparisons sake, the ADP of the top rookie receiver (Ja'Marr Chase) is roughly 30 spots lower than where Pitts is going. That's just silly. Don't get me wrong: Pitts has ridiculous intangibles and a very realistic chance to be productive right away in a Falcons offense that likes to air it out and is looking for a 2nd option to emerge alongside Calvin Ridley following the departure of Julio Jones, but taking him in the 5th round when there's zero guarantees on what his role or how smooth his pro transition will be is not a dice roll worth making at a position that's not overly important in the grand scheme of fantasy football.
Honorable Mentions: Tyler Higbee (Rams), Logan Thomas (Football Team), Adam Trautman (Saints)
Defense/Special Teams: 49ers (ADP: Yahoo!: 94.1 ESPN: 124.0)
Even if Nick Bosa can stay healthy and return to his dominant 2019 form, the presence of a new DC in DeMeco Ryans, a questionable corner group that's headed up by the oft-injured Jason Verrett and below average takeaway rate last year (20, which ranked 21st in the league ) puts the 49ers on much shakier ground than their peers at the top of the fantasy defense board (Rams, Ravens, Football Team, Steelers).
Honorable Mentions: Chiefs, Chargers, Bills
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