NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Wild Card Record: 4-2 (Correct: Ravens, Bills, Eagles, Rams Incorrect: Chargers, Buccaneers)

Kansas City Chiefs over Houston Texans:

The Texans deserve a ton for credit for the way they played last week against the Chargers. Their defense allowed to them overcome their early turnovers/offensive ineffectiveness by keeping the Chargers out of the endzone when they had short fields on three drives in the first half and the relentless pressure they put on Justin Herbet forced him to have one of the worst games of his career while C.J. Stroud put up a big time performance that was full of clutch plays that allowed them to blow the game wide open in the second half. Despite coming off such an impressive effort that shut up a lot of doubters (myself included), playing the Chiefs is a whole different beast that I don't think they'll be able to overcome. Andy Reid-coached teams are incredibly difficult to beat when they're coming off a bye, the Chiefs offense were in their finest form of the season in the 2 games before the Week 18 finale against the Broncos where they rested their starters and perhaps most importantly, the Texans lack of experience playing in cold weather games (the projected temperature in Kansas City this afternoon is 20 degrees) could end up biting them in the ass.     

Detroit Lions over Washington Commanders:

Not to be the asshole that takes the wind out of the sails of a long-suffering franchise that picked up their first playoff win in almost 20 years, but I just wasn't all that impressed with how the Commanders played in their win over the Bucs last Sunday night. Jayden Daniels simply just did his job as an NFL starting quarterback well as he had plenty of time to throw and the Bucs depleted, horseshit secondary couldn't cover their receivers (especially on 3rd down), their defense got run over on just about every drive where the Bucs offense had the decency to not shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and an absurd fumble on a botched handoff from Baker Mayfield with their backs against their own endzone in the 4th quarter is the top reason Dan Quinn embracing his inner Dan Campbell by going for it on 4th down (and failing) twice while in chip shot field goal territory didn't cost them the game. They're not likely to be presented with such a favorable scenario when take on the Lions tonight. Quite frankly, I think the Commanders below average defense are going to get knocked on their ass by the physicality, firepower and dynamism the Lions offense possesses and it's not really going to matter what Daniels and co. can or can't do against whatever version of the banged-up Lions defense shows up.   

Philadelphia Eagles over Los Angeles Rams:

With snow in the forecast for Philadelphia, running the ball and defending the run is likely going to dictate the outcome of Eagles/Rams. While the Rams are better in these areas than their regular season stats indicate (24th in rushing offense, 22nd in rushing defense), I just can't pick against the Eagles in a game with these conditions. Saquon Barkley has been the most dominant back in the league this year running behind the best o-line in football and the Eagles front full of behemoths were built for ugly, trenches-driven January football.    

Baltimore Ravens over Buffalo Bills:

Much is being made about how cold it is going to be in Orchard Park tomorrow (roughly 10 degrees at kickoff at 6:30 PM EST) and how the Ravens-specifically Lamar Jackson-could struggle in those conditions. Whatever the outcome of this game ends up being, I don't think the cold is going to be a factor. Maryland isn't a place that's shielded from winter weather (nor are the outdoor home stadiums of all 3 of their rivals in the AFC North) and while as a native of southern Florida I'm sure he's no fan of the cold; Jackson has been playing in these types of conditions since his college days at Louisville.

What I do believe will likely determine who moves onto the AFC Championship Game is whose defense will be able to do a better job of slowing down the opposing offense. On those grounds, I believe the Ravens have the edge and that's why I'm picking to them win here. As exploitable as Brandon Stephens and Nate Wiggins are at corner, the Ravens defense has been among the best in the league in nearly every important category (points/YDS allowed, takeaways, 3rd down % percentage allowed, red zone defense) since mid-November when they shifted Kyle Hamilton back to safety full-time and I think they're well-equipped to contain the Bills varied RB committee and take away a lot of the slot looks from Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins that are such a big part of their passing attack. On the other side, I just don't think the Bills have the grit or the discipline in the front 7 to slow down the freight train of a rushing attack that allows the Ravens to dictate the entire pace of the game and gradually wear down their opponents through the combination of speed and power they're putting on the field. And if Josh Allen has his number of possessions limited by ball control, the Bills probably aren't going to win that game.