NFL Wild Card Predictions

Los Angeles Chargers over Houston Texans:

Wild Card Weekend wouldn't be quite the same if the Texans weren't playing in the 4:30 PM EST slot on Saturday. Unfortunately for them, they drew the shittiest matchup they possibly could in this round in the Chargers. A Texans offense that has been stagnant as hell for much of the past month is going to have their work cut out for them against a Chargers defense that is physical and fast at all 3 levels and Justin Herbert-whose quietly been playing the best football of his career this year despite being in Greg Roman's ultraconservative system-should be eager to prove his doubters wrong in his 1st playoff game since the infamous debacle against the Jaguars 2 years ago.  

Balitmore Ravens over Pittsburgh Steelers:

Anything can happen when divisional opponents meet for the 3rd time in a season. However, it would be a major shock if the Ravens didn't take this game-even with top wideout Zay Flowers out of the lineup with a knee sprain and the very legit concerns that remain over Lamar Jackson's ability to deliver in the playoffs. The Steelers have looked overmatched and completely rudderless during their current 4-game losing game streak while the Ravens have been rolling over the same stretch-going 4-0 and beating their opponents by a combined score of 135-43 (including a 34-17 win over the Steelers on December 21st). It's going to take a major change of fortune for this Steelers team to win this game given how terrible they've played over the last month and I just don't see them being able to do that against a Ravens offense that can wear you down with Derrick Henry or attack you through the air in a variety of ways and a defense that has really tightened up over the last 8 weeks or so after a rough start to the year.   

Buffalo Bills over Denver Broncos:

This is a sneaky prime upset spot on this slate. As much as everybody in Buffalo would like to forget that it happened, it was just 2 short years ago on Wild Card Weekend that they narrowly defeated the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins on their home field and it would be the most Bills thing in the world to overlook a Broncos team that isn't overly talented on paper and is led by a rookie quarterback that most people think is just fine as a player. Despite the plausibility of this scenario playing out, I'm just not confident enough in the Broncos as an operation to pick them to win. Josh Allen is a dynamic enough quarterback to potentially shred their solid but overrated defense that has gotten torched by great QB's including Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert this season, Sean Payton has gone 4-7 in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl with the Saints in 2009 and excluding last week's win against the Chiefs backups, the Broncos are a horrid 1-5 against playoff teams during the 2024 campaign.    

Philadelphia Eagles over Green Bay Packers:

Can the Packers knock off a heavily favored NFC East team as the #7 seed for a 2nd straight season? Sure. Their run defense-which has been great since roughly the halfway point of the season-has what it takes to slow down Saquon Barkley-who is the undisputed focal point of their offense and Matt LaFluer is capable of coaching circles around Nick Sirianni. But just like the Broncos, I'm just not quite sold on them having the horses required to beat a loaded Eagles team. The Packers secondary is very exploitable if Jalen Hurts can settle into a groove as a passer after missing the past 2.5 games with a concussion and while Josh Jacobs could find some room to run like he did in their Week 1 matchup in Sao Paulo, Jordan Love being asked to throw against the Eagles top-ranked pass D amidst his current struggles feels like a tall order that he probably won't be able to deliver on.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Washington Commanders:

Picking the Bucs here feels like I'm really playing with fire. Their defense cannot defend the pass at all and their stupid, sloppy performances in 2 of their past 3 games doesn't provide much optimism about their ability to go on a run in the playoffs. It really just comes down to me liking the way Baker Mayfield plays in playoff games and having absolutely zero confidence in Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury's ability to call the right plays in a high leverage situation like this.     

Los Angeles Rams over Minnesota Vikings:

Setting aside the potential for an emotional boost or drain on account of the devastating wildfires ravaging through LA for a moment, I really like the Rams in this spot. Sean McVay most likely knows everything his protege Kevin O'Connell is going to cook up on offense, the Vikings continued struggles at slot corner opens the door for Puka Nacua to go absolutely wild and despite his recent stretch of poor play, I still trust Matthew Stafford way more than Sam Darnold in a game like this-especially after Darnold's horrendous performance against the Lions last week.