Way Too Early Oscars Predictions: 2025 Edition

Ushering in the month of October means it's time to start chucking shit against the wall and hoping it sticks in terms of forecasting the upcoming Oscar races. At the moment, it feels like a two-horse race for Best Picture between Paul Thomas Anderson's cinephile favorite One Battle After Another and Chloe Zhao's fall festival circuit MVP Hamnet while the acting/directing races appear to be endearingly wide open with the exception of Best Actress where Hamnet star Jessie Buckley is already effectively a lock to take home her first Oscar.   

As always, it needs to be pointed out that there are several potential contending titles that have yet to be publicly screened including Marty Supreme, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Is This Thing On?, Song Sung Blue and Ella McCay and the reactions to these titles once they screen could have a significant impact on how these races will shake out in the coming months. Without further ado, here are my far too early predictions for this year's Oscars minus Best Original Song and the Short Film categories. 

*Indicates the predicted winner 

Best Picture:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Bugonia

Hamnet

It Was Just an Accident

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another* 

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Best Director:

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another*

Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value

Chloe Zhao, Hamnet

Best Actor:

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another*

Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Actress:

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet*

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value

Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor:

Paul Mescal, Hamnet

Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Stellan Skarsgard, Sentimental Value*

Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress:

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good*

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value 

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Best Original Screenplay:

It Was Just an Accident

Jay Kelly

Marty Supreme

Sentimental Value

Sinners*

Best Adapted Screenplay:

Bugonia

Hamnet*

No Other Choice

One Battle After Another

Wake Up Dead Man

Best Casting:

Hamnet

One Battle After Another*

Sentimental Value

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Best Animated Feature:

Arco

KPop: Demon Hunters*

Little Amelie or the Character of Rain

Scarlet  

Zootopia 2 

Best Documentary Feature:

The Alabama Solution

Cover-Up

The Perfect Neighbor*

Predators

The Tale of Silyan 

Best International Feature:

It Was Just an Accident

No Other Choice

The Secret Agent

Sentimental Value*

The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Cinematography:

Frankenstein 

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners*

Train Dreams

Best Film Editing:

F1

Hamnet

Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another*

Sinners

Best Costume Design:

Frankenstein*

Hamnet

Kiss of the Spider Woman

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Best Makeup and Hairstyling:

Bugonia

Frankenstein*

The Smashing Machine

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Best Production Design:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

Frankenstein*

Hamnet

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Best Score:

Frankenstein

Hamnet

One Battle After Another

Sinners*

Wicked: For Good

Best Sound:

Avatar: Fire and Ash

F1*

One Battle After Another

Sinners

Wicked: For Good

Best Visual Effects:

Avatar: Fire and Ash*

F1

The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Superman

Wicked: For Good