Chicago Bears
2021 Record: 6-11 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Eberflus (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Byron Pringle, DE Al-Quadin Muhammad, CB Tavon Young
Notable Departures: OLB Khalil Mack, WR Allen Robinson, DE/DT Akiem Hicks
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Players Seem to Be Responding to Matt Eberflus
There were a lot of issues with the final 3 seasons of Matt Nagy's tenure as Bears head coach. His playcalling was often putrid, his refusal to scheme around the personnel he was given was baffling and his willingness to throw his players under the bus for the team's failures seemed to grow larger with each loss. By the time last season rolled around, Nagy had completely lost the locker room. Guys were just finally got sick of being hung out to dry and put in questionable spots to succeed and it showed with the lack of heart and focus they played with at times.
In the early stages of the Matt Eberflus-era, things seem to be different. Darnell Mooney, Trevis Gibson and Jaylon Johnson are among the players that have publicly praised Eberflus for his direct communication style and willingness to hold the players accountable without disrespecting them. Does this mean much of anything at this point in time? Not at all. Players bought in to Nagy's system in his 1st year too and being a coach that values honesty and hard work has zero direct correlation with good game planning, playcalling and situational management. However, any sign that the players are happy to play for Eberfulus is worth getting a little bit excited about. A bad young team that plays smart and hard is better than an aging middler that doesn't really give a shit about what the outcome is.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Whether or Not the Team Did Enough to Help Justin Fields
A full blown rebuild needed to be in the cards for the Bears. Nagy just wasn't the same guy after the Double Doink playoff loss in 2018 and Ryan Pace-who did a better job than he gets credit for-had too many losses/damaging personnel whiffs to earn an 8th year on the job that would've included making his 3rd head coaching hire.
When longtime Chiefs front office assistant Ryan Poles took the GM job in January, he made some necessary housekeeping moves that the fanbase had no problem understanding. Khalil Mack, Allen Robinson, Akiem Hicks and Danny Trevathan aren't useful pieces on a team that's not even close to winning anything and in the case of Mack, moving him to acquire draft capital made sense considering Pace left them with so few picks in the 2022 draft after swinging multiple trades in 2021 to land Justin Fields and Teven Jenkins.
What didn't make sense was some of the moves Poles made after this. He let talented 25-year old guard James Daniels leave for the Steelers in free agency, kept some incumbent starters that really needed to go in place (Sam Mustipher, Mario Edwards Jr, Angelo Blackson, Kindle Vildor) and shopped exclusively at the free agent bargain bin to fill out the depth chart (Justin Jones, Byron Pringle, Lucas Patrick, Equanimeous St. Brown, Tavon Young, Michael Schofield, Riley Reiff). A sizable dead cap situation after trading and cutting so many high-priced vets paired with a belief that they're simply waiting until next year when most of that money to really start building has been offered up as explanation for this approach, but that just sounds like a weak excuse to cover up a series of moves that nobody outside of the organization seems to understand or approve of.
This ultimately begs the question: Did they do enough to help Fields out? In my eyes, absolutely not. Evaluating Fields last year was impossible because Nagy didn't use him properly and the personnel around him largely stunk. Even if new OC Luke Getsy takes advantage of Fields' mobility, this year doesn't feel like it's going to be much different. Unless rookies like Velus Jones Jr. and Braxton Jones-a 5th round pick this year who is currently projected to start at left tackle-prove to be revelations that no one saw coming, rotational journeyman Patrick or Pringle are able to fix the massive limitations in their respective games by getting more regular reps and Reiff returns to his decent form after having his 2021 season with the Bengals cut short by an ankle injury, the receiving corps and offensive line very well could be worse than last year and how the hell can you tell if a quarterback is good or not if he has no time to throw and no one to throw to? The simple answer is that you can't. Rebuilds take time and nobody expected the Bears to hit the ground running in 2022, but right now it seems like Poles' is just setting Fields up to fail so he can jettison for him a QB of his choosing in another year or two.
Key to Reaching their Ceiling: What Eberflus Can Do with This Young Defensive Corps
Even with Roquan Smith currently holding out and potentially being traded and the longtime faces of this defense being gone, there's still a lot to like about the Bears defense on paper. Robert Quinn showed he's still got some juice left in his early 30's by posting an All-Pro campaign (18.5 sacks, 17 TFL's, 22 QB hits, 4 forced fumbles) out of the blue last year, Jaylon Johnson remains on a legit top corner trajectory after a solid sophomore season, Gibson was a terrific fill-in for Mack after he went down with a season-ending foot injury in late October-picking up 7 sacks, 7 QB hits and 5 forced fumbles in 9 starts, Thomas Graham Jr. was lights out when he got called up from the practice squad in December following a COVID outbreak among their DB room and ended up playing a prominent role in the final 4 games of the season and rookies Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker project to be day 1 starters in the secondary that could inject this group with a dose of old school physicality.
As great of a job as former DC Sean Desai-who is a big get for a Seahawks team that been pretty bad on defense for the past few seasons-did with managing injuries and getting young guys like Johnson and Gibson to improve so dramatically in year 2, Eberflus and his staff have a chance to make this group even better. When Eberflus got to the Colts in 2018, the group was in shambles finishing in the bottom 5 of the league in most categories in including 30th in scoring defense. Through his disciplined coaching and the arrival of an All-Pro linebacker in Shaquile Leonard (formerly Darius), they jumped up to the top 10 in scoring defense and top 8 in rushing defense in his 1st year.
Considering the talent level and jumping off point for the 2022 Bears is much higher than it was for the 2018 Colts, Eberflus, DC Alan Williams, linebackers coach Dave Borgonzi and the small group of other former Colts assistants brought with him to Chicago could have this group hitting the top 5 if all goes well. There are guys at every level of this defense with the potential to be special and considering the remarkable job this staff did with elevating and developing unsung talent including Kenny Moore, Bobby Okreke and the now-retired Khari Willis during their 4 years in Indy, it's thrilling to think of the strides the incumbent guys can make and how good Gordon and Brisker could become under the tutelage of this staff. This group has a much higher chance of surprising than their counterparts on offense and Eberflus and co. could have them prepared to sneak up on teams with their ferocity and underrated skill very early on.
Bottom Line:
A new coaching staff, unproven young quarterback and generally shitty roster is a classic recipe for NFL failure that the Bears will execute to perfection in 2022.
Detroit Lions
2021 Record: 3-13-1 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: Dan Campbell (2nd season)
Notable Additions: S DeShon Eliott, CB Mike Hughes, WR D.J. Chark
Notable Departures: OLB Trey Flowers, ILB Jalen Reeves-Maybin, S Dean Marlowe
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Landing Aidan Hutchinson
Securing the #2 pick in the 2022 draft was a somewhat depressing scenario for the Lions. Hometown kid/University of Michigan standout Aidan Hutchinson was projected to be the #1 pick and it would've been a really cool story for the long-suffering Lions to see one of their own come and play for them. Plus, he would fill a really huge need for them at edge rusher. Then for maybe the 1st time in Lions history, they benefitted from some good fortune when the Trent Baalke-led Jaguars fell in love with the athletic traits of Travon Walker and decided to take him at #1 instead of Hutchinson.
Once the Jaguars selection of Walker became official, GM Brad Holmes turned in the draft card in seemingly record time. When Hutchinson got his name called, another strange thing happened: Somebody was beaming after they got selected by the Lions. If this shit ends up going sideways, it's going to be particularly devastating. A blue-chip talent not only slipping to the Lions, but being excited to play for them is not a scenario that's likely to play out again.
What makes the addition of Hutchinson so huge for the Lions is that this he's a potential Myles Garrett, Joey/Nick Bosa, Khalil Mack-type generational talent. He was a certified game wrecker at Michigan and his strength/size/speed/well-rounded game combo makes that success very likely to translate to the pros. In my lifetime at least, Ziggy Ansah and Kyle Vanden Bosch were the closest things they had to a cornerstone edge guy and Hutchinson has a chance to be significantly better than both of them. The prospect of having a future All-Pro that hails from the Detroit-area wreaking havoc on opposing offenses will be enough to fuel a decade's worth of optimism in Detroit.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Dan Campbell's Actual X and O Coaching Ability
Dan Campbell earned a lot of praise during his inaugural season with the Lions by uplifting his team with his passionate speeches, instilling a work ethic in them that made them one of the highest effort teams in the league and completely ridding the locker room of the sad, deflated aura that defined them during the Matt Patricia era. While Campbell's love of his players and ability to field a team that is hungry to compete on game days isn't up for debate, the kind of coach he is underneath all of the theatrics very much is.
A major part of the reason they won 3 games in 2021 was due to their lack of talent at nearly every spot. The quieter part of it was Campbell himself. Quite a few of their tight losses can be attributed to questionable clock management/situational football in close games (he went for on 4th down way more than he should have) and Campbell himself called plays in the final 9 games after stripping OC Anthony Lynn-who was fired after the season-of that responsibility during their bye week and the team still finished 25th in scoring (although to be fair, all 3 of their wins did come with Campbell running the offense).
Heading into this season, Campbell will see his meddle truly tested. Opponents aren't going to overlook this team again after the way they competed last year and the good will he's built up with his personality will fade if the team takes any noticeable steps backs this season and/or continues to lose at a high clip. The first big test is right on the horizon as he has to make the tough, potentially season-altering call in the coming weeks of whether he wants to keep calling offensive plays or cede those duties to new OC Brad Johnson. While there's still too many personnel/talent issues to get a firm read on what Campbell is really made of as a coach, his 2nd season at the helm should provide far more illuminating insight than his 1st.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Taking the Next Step Forward in their Rebuild
Maybe it's because people around the league are rooting hard for them to win after decades of suffering or it's simply a case of people getting riled up over Dan Campbell's pump-up speeches and ignoring any of the on-field elements of his job, but the Lions have some legitimate buzz around them this season. People like the draft they put together (even though Jameson Williams probably won't see the field until next year) as well as the new veteran starters/depth pieces (DeShon Elliott, Mike Hughes, D.J. Chark, Justin Jackson) they brought in and there are even some pie in the sky folks that thing that can earn a playoff spot. As great of a story as it would be to see this team return to the playoffs just 2 years into a hard rebuild, people need to pump the brakes on Lions mania. This squad isn't going anywhere this season. They're team is far too young and far too talent-deprived-particularly on defense- to win at a high level this season. What the Lions should be concerned about this season is what improvements they can individually make to help the collective improve and move this rebuild another step forward.
Campbell needs to grow as an in-game coach and stop being needlessly aggressive with calling timeouts and going for it on 4th down. D'Andre Swift needs to stop putting the ball on the ground so much. Amon-Ra St. Brown needs to do more after the catch and prove that his strong finish in 2021 wasn't just a product of being a warm body on a team with no healthy wideouts. 2020 1st round pick Jeff Okudah needs to embrace the grinding mindset of Detroit and get back on track after 2 brutal inaugural pro seasons marred by poor play and the bad luck of suffering a massive Achilles injury. Jared Goff needs to get T.J. Hockenson more consistently involved in the passing attack. Last year's surprise defensive MVP Charles Harris needs to solidify his Motor City resurrection and provide Hutchinson with a legitimate running mate on the edge. Growth and patience are the most valuable things in the world to the 2022 Lions and if both of those things become focal points of their operation, 2023 just might be the season where a major leap becomes feasible.
Bottom Line:
While some degree of improvement feels imminent, it's far too early in this attempted to rebuild to expect much more than 5-6 wins from the Lions.
Green Bay Packers
2021 Record: 13-4 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt LaFleur (4th season)
Notable Additions: WR Sammy Watkins, DT Jarran Reed, P Pat O'Donnell
Notable Departures: WR Davante Adams, OLB Za'Darius Smith, WR Marquez Valdez-Scantling
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Aaron Rodgers Returning
Postponing the start of or maybe even completely killing the Jordan Love-era in Green Bay had to make a lot of people that care about the Packers ecstatic. As much postseason disappointment and year-round drama as the Aaron Rodgers experience generates, the man remains a special talent that is currently showing no signs of slowing down at age 38 going on 39. Will openly becoming a new age hippie that reads astrology books, gets lame spiritual tattoos and chugs ayahuasca in Peru during the offseason be the key to reversing Rodgers' postseason futility? Doubtful, but playing in the worst division in a greatly diminished NFC will make holding out hope for this miracle to occur very easy.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Davante Adams Leaving
When the bombshell news that Davante Adams was being traded to the Las Vegas Raiders broke, I immediately thought Rodgers was going to retire or the Packers were secretly working on a deal to acquire a younger top wideout that could be available through trade (A.J. Brown, DK Metcalf, Terry McLaurin, Deebo Samuel, Diontae Johnson, D.J. Moore). Adams is the best receiver Rodgers has ever played with and it wouldn't make sense for the Packers to convince him to return without an uncontested top wideout on the roster RIGHT? Well, that unthinkable scenario happened as the only vet the Packers brought in was journeyman Sammy Watkins. And to make matters even worse, #2 wideout Marquez Valdez-Scantling also departed for the Chiefs in free agency.
The biggest problem with Adams leaving isn't actually the 1,400-1,700 YDS/10+ TD per year production loss, it's that the infamous Rodgers trust tree only has a small number of branches left on it. Right now, the list of Packers pass-catchers that Rodgers is comfortable with is limited to Allen Lazard, Robert Tonyan, Aaron Jones and 84-year-old Randall Cobb. And of that group, who can really be relied onto make plays? Lazard is nothing more than a solid #3 option, Jones can hit home runs on wheel routes and screen passes on occasion, but he still primarily operates in the running game, Tonyan has little use outside of the redzone and Cobb isn't chasing down anything that isn't the orderly that forgot his Jello at lunchtime.
Being asked to fill the colossal vacancies in the trust tree are the trio of Watkins and rookies Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs. Before we get to the actual skill sets of these 3 men, keep in mind that Rodgers is a notoriously difficult guy to build a rapport with. If you fuck up a route, drop a ball or misread one of his pre-snaps audibles, your ass isn't getting thrown to (just ask Equanimeous St. Brown and Amari Rodgers).
Watson-who was picked at the top of the 2nd round-actually seems like the guy that's most likely to end up out of the trust tree. His explosive athleticism will earn him reps, but his shaky hands and route-running (he came from a run-heavy system at North Dakota State that didn't require him to do much in that department) are likely to draw the ire of Rodgers.
Watkins feels like the safest bet on paper to make in it due to his experience level, but his tendency to miss time with soft tissue/foot injuries and the erratic play level that has caused him to bounce around the league makes that a much shakier one in practice.
This of course leaves Doubs. He's actually drawn comparisons to a young Cobb for his unsung status and sound yet completely unflashy game and has earned some positive reviews out of training camp. However, banking on a 4th round pick who put up decent numbers against mediocre D1 competition at the University of Nevada to be an immediate go-to guy for Rodgers just isn't a reasonable expectation.. If none of the new guys click with Rodgers by season's end and Lazard can't handle the increased responsibilities of his unintended promotion, Rodgers might not be long for Green Bay (or the NFL in general) after all.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Not Getting Burned by Special Teams
Despite all of the questions marks surrounding their WR group, the Packers are generally in good shape heading into 2022. Rodgers and the quality running back tandem of Jones and A.J. Dillion will be enough to keep their offense functional even if the pass game fails them, their defense is a pretty good group anchored by a terrific secondary and their offensive line will be in good shape if David Bakhitiari can come back and contribute after missing nearly all of last season and the end of the 2020 season after tearing an ACL in practice. There is one area though where shit could still go very haywire: Special teams.
The 2021 Packers turned into an absolute clown show whenever the special teams hit the field. Their kick and punt coverage team were a weekly blooper reel that were largely responsible for the upset playoff loss they suffered to the 49ers in a snow game at Lambeau, Mason Crosby had the 2nd worst season of his career by making only 73.5% of his field goals and Corey Bojorquez was actually a pretty decent punter who was made to look worse than he actually was by the garbage coverage team. Unsurprisingly, special team coordinator Marcus Grayton was fired after the loss to 49ers and replaced by respected vet/2021 interim Raiders head coach Rich Biassicia in the offseason.
As good as Biassicia is, he's going to have his hands full with this group. Longtime Bears punter Pat O'Donnell could actually be a downgrade from Bojorquez as he's only averaged above 46 YDS per punt in 2 of his 8 NFL seasons thus far, Crosby tends be more of the erratic guy that he was last year than the automatic machine he was in 2019/20 and ex-Raiders kick coverage specialists Dallin Leavitt and Keisan Nixon are the only established special teamers they brought into the mix for this season. The improvement only needs to be marginal for this to no longer be a crippling issue, but a coaching and punter change might not be enough to get this team of special teams purgatory.
Bottom Line:
While Adams' departure is a big enough loss for regression to be a near certainty, it's unlikely to knock the Packers out of contention in the NFC.
Minnesota Vikings
2021 Record: 8-9 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Kevin O'Connell (1st season)
Notable Additions: OLB Za'Darius Smith, ILB Jordan Hicks, CB Chandon Sullivan
Notable Departures: OLB Anthony Barr, S Xavier Woods, TE Tyler Conklin
Biggest Reason for Excitement: They're in a Prime Position to Take Advantage of the Weakened Depth in the NFC.
The past few seasons of Vikings football have been defined by great offense, poor defense and pretty steady mediocrity. As one of the only teams that no suffered no major roster losses, the Vikings are in a great spot to win more without really improving. All they need to do is more or less stay the course from the previous regime-which should be attainable unless Justin Jefferson, Kirk Cousins, Dalvin Cook and Adam Thielen all get hurt and they could end up on the right side of the playoff bubble that they fell short of for the past 2 seasons. Good things come to those wait, unless you're Mike Zimmer who would've been able to keep his job if the Seahawks, Cowboys, Cardinals, 49ers and Packers all conceivably got worse a year earlier.
Biggest Reason for Concern: That Kevin O'Connell is the Rare Bad Branch from the Sean McVay Coaching Tree.
The tree talk has shifted from trust to coaching, so don't say there isn't any variety in these pieces. Sean McVay is the most successful young head coach in the league by a considerable margin, which means his staff is going to continue to get ransacked by copycats around the league hoping that the next great coach just happens to be sitting among his underlings. This phenomenon is bound to only get worse in the upcoming offseason now that he's won a Super Bowl. The latest McVay acolyte to be plucked off his staff is Kevin O'Connell.
Weirdly enough, O'Connell first rose to prominence when he landed the Washington QB coach right after McVay accepted Rams coaching gig in 2017 and they never worked together until 2020 when McVay tapped him to be the first OC he worked with since Matt Lafluer left the team following the 2017 season.
While O'Connell earned some respect during his tenure in Washington, his resume has some holes in it that have been overlooked due to his ties to McVay. O'Connell's lone season of being an OC with real playcalling responsibilities came during his final season with Washington in 2019 and things didn't go exactly go great. The offense ranked dead last in a host of categories (scoring, passing, 3 down%, total 1st downs) and they finished 3-13. In O'Connell's defense, Case Keenum and Dwayne Haskins struggled immensely that season and there's no one besides maybe Andy Reid or McVay himself that could've gotten anything out of a team that had such poor QB play. Still, it's never a good look when the section of your resume that features your highest leverage gig before becoming a head coach is this ugly.
Then there's the scheme fit factor. As QB-friendly as the McVay system reportedly is, it doesn't suit everybody. Russell Wilson really struggled to produce with Shane Waldron at the helm last season, no one other than Joe Burrow has been even semi-respectable under Zac Taylor during his 4 seasons with the Bengals and Lafluer's lone game with Jordan Love under center in Green Bay was an abject disaster. If Kirk Cousins fails to be as productive as he was under Klint and Gary Kubiak the past 2 seasons, the hiring of O'Connell as well as the staying power of McVay's former assistants as head coaches is going to begin to look pretty questionable.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting Anything of Note Out of Their Defense
Egregious defensive failures over the past few seasons are by far the #1 reason Mike Zimmer is no longer coaching the Minnesota Vikings. While some poor drafting by Rick Spielman-who also got his walking papers at the end of last season, key injuries like the one that kept Danielle Hunter out for most of last season and diminishing returns from vets (Everson Griffen, Sheldon Richardson, to a lesser extent Harrison Smith) contributed to their struggles over the past few years, Zimmer deserve some blame for his mismanagement of young assets-particularly Mike Hughes, who turned into a pretty solid player once he got to the Chiefs- and his unwavering insistence on trotting out older players over young ones (playing a worn down Patrick Peterson over the very promising Cameron Dantzler last season is a particularly absurd example of this).
The new Vikings regime are pulling out some interesting tactics to try and improve this group that's been among the very worst in football in back-to-back seasons. New GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensa decided to basically turn a blind eye to any and all injury histories and sign as many guys with medical red flags as they could find with the hope that could get high production levels at a discounted rate. Za'Darius Smith-a man that's about to turn 30 and only played 18 snaps last year before he went on season-ending IR with a back injury that had been bothering him throughout camp- got himself a nice 3-year/$42 deal off the pair of consecutive double-digit sack season he had with the Packers prior to sitting out last year. Fellow 30-year old Jordan Hicks-who has shockingly not missed a game since 2018 but missed 22 from 2015-18 with an assortment of injures-got himself a 2-year deal to play alongside Eric Kendricks at inside linebacker. Harrison Phillips may be a much younger fella at 26, but he's also an inactive list regular (he's missed multiple games in all but 1 of his 4 NFL seasons to date and suffered a torn ACL in 2019) that got himself a multi-year contract. Staking some key parts of the defensive rebuild on guys with concerning injury histories is a bold move that will either make Adofo-Mensa the new king of spreadsheets or just the latest in a line of analytical bozos that are in over their heads.
Tasked with overseeing this somewhat overhauled operation is Ed Donatell-who was Vic Fangio's top lieutenant in San Francisco, Chicago and Denver over the 11 seasons. Like with Zimmer before him, the overall quality of the coaching isn't likely to be an issue considering the strength of his pedigree, but one advantage he does have is a better track record with young players. During Donatell's time as the DC in Denver, Justin Simmons greatly improved, Patrick Surtain II got off to a great start and several other injury-prone guys (Bradley Chubb, Josey Jewell, Bryce Callahan) flashed in between IR stints. There's a lot of youth present in this group that figure to earn sizable roles right away (Dantzler, rookies Lewis Cine, Andrew Booth Jr. and Brian Asamoah) and Donatell's ability to get them valuable reps alongside an established corps of vets (Smith, Hunter, Kendricks, Peterson, Dalvin Tomlinson) could be really key for getting this group back on track.
Whether it comes through the play of the young guys they drafted, the refurbished free agent or the returning players, some degree of tangible improvement is imperative for the trajectory of this team. A finish in the bottom third of scoring defenses and being poor against both the run and pass has torpedoed their playoff chances for 2 straight seasons. A modest, attainable rise to the middle of the pack could greatly change their standing in the NFC hierarchy and send the longships back to the glorious waters of the playoffs for the 1st time since 2019.
Bottom Line:
With an explosive offense and a fortunate placement in a terrible division, the Vikings have a golden opportunity to become the Kings of the NFC middlers and earn a Wild Card spot.
Projected Standings:
1.Green Bay Packers (11-6)
2.Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
3.Detroit Lions (5-12)
4.Chicago Bears (4-13)
