2015 NFL Preview: AFC South

Houston Texans

2014 Record: 9-7

Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (2nd year)

Notable Additions: QB Brian Hoyer, DT Vince Wilfork, S Rahim Moore

Notable Departures: WR Andre Johnson, OLB Brooks Reed, QB Ryan Fitzpatrick
Offense:

The big story in Houston this offseason was their decision to re-sign Ryan Mallet and bring in Brian Hoyer to compete for the starting quarterback job.Whoever wins the job is going to have to prove they can be a starting quarterback in the league. Hoyer proved to be a solid game manager last season in Cleveland and Mallet has excellent arm strength, but Hoyer's inability to make throws downfield and frequent turnovers and Mallet's issues with accuracy and throwing mechanics make them both risky propositions.  While neither of these guys are great options, the Texans can take solace in the fact that either of these guys should be able to put similar numbers as their 2014 starter Ryan Fitzpatrick. Personally, the more intriguing position battles on this team is for the job of number 2 receiver and running back now that Arian Foster is all but confirmed to be out for at least the first 6 weeks of the season after sustaining a severe groin injury in training camp last week. Veteran free agent pickups Nate Washington and Cecil Shorts seems to be the frontrunners for the number 2 reciever based on their track records of putting up solid numbers with less-than-stellar quarterbacks, but the freakishly athletic rookie Jaelen Strong could pull off the upset if he can solidify his route-running and keep his number of dropped passes to a minimum. Top wide out DeAndre Hopkins proved  he's something special last season and if another one of these guys can break out, the Texans should have a pretty scary aerial attack. As for running back, second-year back Alfred Blue appears to be the frontrunner to take over the starting job in Foster's absence. Blue did a decent job filling in for Foster last season and his two-way abilities give him the edge over the rest of the field despite his mediocre 3.1 YPC average in 2014. However, Blue's job is far from secure. Jonathan Grimes has reportedly been impressive in training camp and newly-acquired Chris Polk is a big, physical runner who showed flashes of greatness during his time with the Eagles. While the Texans offense is buried with question marks, O'Brien is one of the most impressive offensive minds in the league and should be able to get the maximum amount of production out of this unit.

Defense:

With a once-in-a-generation talent in defensive end J.J. Watt suiting up for them every week, the Texans defense will always be imposing. That being said, this defense has made clear improvements at just about every level heading into 2015. The below-average safety play that played a large role in their 21st-ranked pass defense a year ago has been rectified with the addition of elite coverage safety Rahim Moore, solid veteran Stevie Brown and promising rookie Kurtis Drummond. The rebuilt safety corps paired with the re-signing of top corner Kareem Jackson should prevent this unit from finishing in the bottom of the league for a second year in a row. The Texans defensive line also received a boost this offseason with the addition of nose tackle Vince Wilfork. Wilfork's best days on the field are well behind him, but he should be a great influence on second-year nose tackle Louis Nix III-who struggled mightily throughout his rookie campaign last year- and help out a bit in stopping the run. About the only serious concern on this defense is the health of Jadeveon Clowney. After a terrible rookie year in which he only registered 7 tackles and 0 sacks  in 5 games, Clowney under microfracture surgery on his knee last December. Microfracture surgery is notoriously difficult to come back from-especially for a pass-rusher who relies on explosiveness and speed, so it's entirely possible that Clowney will never regain the rare burst that made him the number 1 pick a year ago. The Texans defense was one of the best in the league in 2014 and it would be a huge surprise if they weren't in that elite camp again in 2015.

Bottom Line:

The Texans are a solid team who should be able to at least match their record from a year ago, but their lack of a solid quarterback and offensive weapons will keep them from contending in the AFC.

Indianapolis Colts

2014 Record: 11-5

Head Coach: Chuck Pagano (4th year)

Notable Additions: RB Frank Gore, WR Andre Johnson, OLB Trent Cole

Notable Departures: WR Reggie Wayne, DE Corey Redding, WR Hakeem Nicks

Offense:

After two impressive seasons as a starter, Andrew Luck finally became the unstoppable franchise quarterback he was touted to be in 2014. Luck put together a ridiculous 4,761 yard, 40 TD season and led the Colts to their first AFC Championship game since 2009. Luck has the potential to be even better in 2015. Luck's completion percentage and QBR has gone up each year he's in the league and the Colts receiving corps already loaded receiving corps got even better with the offseason additions of rookie deep threat Phillip Dorsett and surehanded veteran Andre Johnson. If he can cut down his turnovers and finally put an end to his woes against the Patriots, this could be the year that Luck guides the Colts back to the Super Bowl. The Colts could also potentially have their first legitimate running back since Joesph Addai in Frank Gore. Gore may be 32 years old, but he's managed to stay healthy (he hasn't missed a game since 2010) and has proven to be one of the more consistent backs in the league, rushing for 1,000+ yards in 8 of the last 9 seasons. The Colts pass-heavy offense should help Gore stay fresh and the fact that he's in a division full of mostly weak rush defenses of the AFC South- a nice reprieve from the powerhouse NFC West defenses he faced 6 times a year with the 49ers-could very well lead to Gore's best season in ages. The Colts are an offensive powerhouse that could very well being the best in the league if everything materializes as planned.   

Defense:

For as good as the Colts are on offense, their defense leaves a lot to be desired. While there are definitely much weaker defenses out there, this defense can not be relied to protect a lead and can easily get dumped on when facing an elite offense (just look at what the Steelers and Patriots did to them last year.) They added a couple of nice veteran pieces in edge-rusher Trent Cole and defensive end Kendall Langford this offseason, but neither of them are going to significant enough of an impact to make this unit notably better than they were in 2014. Most importantly, they did next to nothing to address the leaky rush defense that has gotten them bounced from the playoffs 2 years in a row or the pitiful secondary they have put around shutdown corner Vontae Davis and quality strong safety Mike Adams. The Colts did used their both of their 3rd-round picks on defenders (corner D'Joun Smith and defensive end Henry Anderson), but they're both incredibly raw prospects who are going to need time to develop before they make a sizable impact on the field. The play of the Colts defense is ultimately going to be deciding the factor of whether or not they become title contenders or suffer another agonizing loss to the Patriots in January.  

Bottom Line:
With a mostly returning starting lineup and favorable schedule, there's no reason to believe that the Colts won't win the AFC South and contend for a Super Bowl appearance in 2015.

Jacksonville Jaguars

2014 Record: 3-13

Head Coach: Gus Bradley (3rd year)

Notable Additions: TE Julius Thomas, DT Jared Odrick, CB Davon House

Notable Departures: WR Cecil Shorts III, CB Alan Ball, RB Jordan Todman
Offense:
 Quarterback Blake Bortles had a rough start to his NFL career in 2014. Only 2 quarterbacks had more turnovers than him (Jay Cutler and Andy Dalton) and he graded out as the worst starting quarterback in the league according to Pro Football Focus. Despite his slew of struggles, Bortles also showed flashes of serious promise along the way. The Jaguars reaffirmed their belief that Bortles is their franchise quarterback by going out and picking up potential difference makers this offseason in tight end Julius Thomas and rookie T.J. Yeldon. Thomas may have overachieved in Denver with Peyton Manning throwing him the ball and be a complete liability as a run-blocker, but he's a top-flight receiving tight end who is damn near impossible to cover in the redzone and Yeldon has the potential to be a legitimate all-purpose, everydown back in the league. Thomas and Yeldon alongside their promising young wide receivers Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee gives the Jaguars one of the more intriguing offenses to watch in 2015. The Jaguars also went out and improved the porous offensive line (they allowed a league-high 70 sacks last season) that played a huge role in Bortles' poor performance a year ago. Tackle Jeremy Parnell did reasonably well in his 8 starts for the Cowboys last season and should at the very least act as a stabilizing presence on the right side of the line, center Stefan Wisnewski is a solid offensive line anchor with a ton of starting experience, and rookie guard A.J. Cann is an excellent run-blocker who should get a chance to start immediately. How well this offensive line plays is going to play a huge part of whether or not Bortles can regain his confidence and live up to his hype as a 1st-round draft pick. As for Bortles himself, he's apparently spent the offseason diligently  working on the mechanics and timing issues that plagued his rookie season. Time will tell if the changes stick, but if Bortles can build on the positives he showed last season, he'll morph into a solid NFL starter. 

Defense:

Gus Bradley has slowly been turning this defense around in his first 2 years with the team and this year he appears to be closer than ever to making this defense legitimately formidable. Free-agent pickup Jared Odrick and rookie Michael Bennett should help sure up a rush defense that got trounced for a majority of  last season while Davon House gives this up-and-down secondary a reliably productive slot corner who can be counted on week in and week out. The new talent gives the Jagaurs some nice pieces to put alongside their pair of under-the-radar centerpieces in defensive tackle Sen'Derrick Marks and outside linebacker Telvin Smith, who who was arguably the best rookie linebacker outside of Khalil Mack last year. The Jaguars still have sizable question marks at linebacker- especially with their projected starting outside linebacker and 2015 first-round pick Dante Fowler Jr. out for the season after suffering an ACL in OTA's- and both safety spots, but they appear set to be a vastly improved defense in 2015.

Bottom Line:
The Jaguars are continuing to make steps in the right direction, but they still don't have enough proven talent on either side of the ball to get out of the NFL's basement. 

 Tennessee Titans

2014 Record: 2-14
Head Coach: Ken Wisenhunt (2nd year)

Notable Additions: OLB Brian Orakpo, S Da'Norris Searcy, WR Harry Douglas

Notable Departures: QB Jake Locker (retired), OLB Kamerion Wimbley (retired), WR Nate Washington

Offense:

The Titans decided to roll the dice on another young quarterback by drafting Oregon product Marcus Mariota with the 2nd overall pick this past April.On paper, Mariota seems like a slam dunk pick. His college stats (66.8 COMP %, 10,796 YDS, 105 TD, 14 INT in his 3 years as a starter ) are excellent and he won the Heisman Trophy and led Oregon to an appearance in the BCS title game in 2014. However, Mariota is about as risky as a quarterback prospect can get. He ran a spread offense in college, which means he never took snaps from under center or called his own plays and goes into a full-blown panic when he faces pressure or his first read isn't open, which is a very bad sign considering how terrible the Titans offensive line is. Making matters worse for Mariota is that he doesn't have a strong run game to lean on like he did during his time at Oregon. Bishop Sankey failed to be the everydown phenom back he was billed to be when prior to his 2014 rookie campaign and while rookie David Cobb has some upside, there's nothing about his game that really standouts. The early training camps reviews from his teammates and national reporters seem to indicate that Mariota is adjusting to the NFL seamlessly, but that hype doesn't mean anything until he's able to show he can handle the speed and complexity of the game in the regular season. Mariota does have the luxury of having an excellent quarterback developer in Wisenhunt as his head coach and a promising group of receivers led by Kendall Wright, newly-acquired slot receiver ace Harry Douglas and rookie Dorial Green-Beckham-who was an absolute steal at the top of the 2nd round, but he has to overcome some lofty obstacles if he wants to succeed at the professional level. 

Defense:

For some inexplicable reason, the Titans paid very little attention to improving a defense that was 27th in the league in yards allowed, tied for 29th in points against and 29th in takeaways in 2014. They only used 2 of their 8 draft picks (the first of which was in the 4th round) on defensive players and their biggest free-agent pickup was outside linebacker Brian Orakpo, who spends more time on the injured reserve than he does on the field. This team was completely helpless against the run last season (31st in the league) and I don't expect that to change this year. None of their linebackers are more than adequate run defenders and their defensive line is loaded with pass-rush first guys (Jurrell Casey, Karl Klug, Sammie Lee Hill, Mike Martin) who are wildly inconsistent at stopping the run. Their secondary isn't quite as bad and the addition of underrated safety Da'Norris Searcy and cornerback Perish Cox in free agency makes them better than there were a year ago. That being said, this unit doesn't scare anyone and they would very fortunate to finish in the top half of the league against the pass. The Titans may have added renowned defensive coach Dick LeBeau to their staff this offseason, but it will take an abundance of coaching wizardry to prevent this unit from being one of the worst in the league.

Bottom Line:
Armed with a rookie quarterback and arguably the most talent-barren roster in the NFL, the Titans will need a series of monumental miracles if they want to be competitive in 2015.

Projected Standings
1.Indianapolis Colts (12-4)
2.Houston Texans (9-7)
3.Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
4.Tennessee Titans (3-13)