Atlanta Falcons
2014 Record: 6-10
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (1st year)
Notable Additions: OLB Brooks Reed, DE Adrian Clayborn, OLB Justin Durant
Notable Departures: WR Harry Douglas, RB Steven Jackson, ILB Sean Weatherspoon
Offense:
The Falcons offense is completely dominated by the passing game. Matt Ryan is arguably the best veteran quarterback in the league to never win a Super Bowl while Julio Jones continues to make a strong case for being the league's best receiver with his perennially ridiculous numbers. The passing offense is further aided by number two receiver, Roddy White-who is still putting up solid numbers into his 30's despite being hampered with a slew of injuries over his career.
As good as the Falcons passing offense is, they could even be even better if they had a competent offensive line in front. According to Pro Football Focus, their offensive line graded out as 8th worst offensive line in the league in 2014. Ryan consistently throws for over 4,000 yards, but the shoddy protection he receives forces him to throw double digit INT's and ruins his accuracy rating.
Unfortunately for Ryan, things don't look like their going to be any better in 2015. This is almost a mirror image of the unit that allowed Ryan to get pummeled last season and unless young guys like Jake Matthews and Joe Hawley can show some type of insane improvement, this offense will once again get not reach their full potential because of terrible offensive line play. Ryan's quick release and ability to throw under pressure keeps this offensive afloat, but when your under duress on just about every throw, your bound to not put your best numbers.
The Falcons offense is also held back by their inability to run the football. Aside from Michael Turner, the Falcons have not enjoyed the luxury of having a quality running back on their roster since the dawn of the new millennium and their fortune doesn't appear set to change in 2015. While the poor offensive line play certainly plays a factor in their ineffective rushing attack, the Falcons running backs just aren't very good. Current starter Devonta Freeman made a few nice plays in his rookie year, but was way too erratic to be effective and rookie Tevin Coleman is going to have to prove he can produce without getting the mack-truck sized rushing lanes he enjoyed during his time at Indiana University. Freeman and Coleman will likely undergo a pretty even split in carries, but unless one of them is hiding some crazy rushing ability, I don't expect either of them to do much damage this season.
As good as the Falcons passing offense is, they could even be even better if they had a competent offensive line in front. According to Pro Football Focus, their offensive line graded out as 8th worst offensive line in the league in 2014. Ryan consistently throws for over 4,000 yards, but the shoddy protection he receives forces him to throw double digit INT's and ruins his accuracy rating.
Unfortunately for Ryan, things don't look like their going to be any better in 2015. This is almost a mirror image of the unit that allowed Ryan to get pummeled last season and unless young guys like Jake Matthews and Joe Hawley can show some type of insane improvement, this offense will once again get not reach their full potential because of terrible offensive line play. Ryan's quick release and ability to throw under pressure keeps this offensive afloat, but when your under duress on just about every throw, your bound to not put your best numbers.
The Falcons offense is also held back by their inability to run the football. Aside from Michael Turner, the Falcons have not enjoyed the luxury of having a quality running back on their roster since the dawn of the new millennium and their fortune doesn't appear set to change in 2015. While the poor offensive line play certainly plays a factor in their ineffective rushing attack, the Falcons running backs just aren't very good. Current starter Devonta Freeman made a few nice plays in his rookie year, but was way too erratic to be effective and rookie Tevin Coleman is going to have to prove he can produce without getting the mack-truck sized rushing lanes he enjoyed during his time at Indiana University. Freeman and Coleman will likely undergo a pretty even split in carries, but unless one of them is hiding some crazy rushing ability, I don't expect either of them to do much damage this season.
Defense:
The primary reason the Falcons hired Dan Quinn as their new head coach was to fix their ailing defense. Quinn, who was previously the defensive coordinator for the Seahawks, certainly has the football IQ to create a winning defense, but he's going to have to work some serious magic to turn around a Falcons defense that finished near the bottom of the league in almost every major category in 2014.
While the entire defense is pretty much broken, the Falcons decided to focus a majority of their offseason efforts to fix their paltry pass rush that managed to pick a mere 22 sacks (tied for 31st in the NFL) a year ago. With all of the top free agent edge-rushers (Justin Houston, Jerry Hughes, Brandon Graham) choosing not to leave their respective teams from a year ago, the Falcons settled for picking up mid-tier options in ex-Texan Brooks Reed and ex-Buccaneer Adrian Clayborn. Reed and Clayborn aren't exactly world-beaters, but they are a big improvement for a team who's 2014 sack leader was Kory Effn' Biermann.
The Falcons waited until the draft to pick up a potential game-changing pass-rusher and that gamble could potentially pay dividends for them as they ended up with defensive end/outside linebacker Vic Beasley. Beasley lacks ideal size for a defensive end (6"3, 246 lbs), but he has an inhuman burst off the snap and has the strength to blow past lineman that are twice his size. If Beasley brings the same dominance that he showed during his time at Clemson and in pre-draft workouts to the NFL, he should make a huge impact on this defense and be one of the frontrunners for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
The Falcons waited until the draft to pick up a potential game-changing pass-rusher and that gamble could potentially pay dividends for them as they ended up with defensive end/outside linebacker Vic Beasley. Beasley lacks ideal size for a defensive end (6"3, 246 lbs), but he has an inhuman burst off the snap and has the strength to blow past lineman that are twice his size. If Beasley brings the same dominance that he showed during his time at Clemson and in pre-draft workouts to the NFL, he should make a huge impact on this defense and be one of the frontrunners for Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Unfortunately, the Falcons did not make the same effort to improve the rest of their defense. Their secondary outside of the highly underrated 3rd-year cornerback Desmond Trufant is a disaster (their pass-defense was dead-last in the league a year ago) and their linebackers are still below average, even with the addition of Justin Durant to their ranks. A couple of young players (rookie cornerback Jalen Collins, outside linebacker Tyler Starr) could make some noise, but are way too raw to be relied on as key contributors. The additions to their front and the presence of Quinn should allow them to improve from a year ago, but it's highly unlikely that this defense will amount to anything special in 2015.
Bottom Line:
Despite a new coaching staff, the Falcons should suffer from the same unbalanced offense and unreliable defense that haunted them during the Mike Smith-era. However, the potency of their passing attack could still keep them in the hunt for the crown in this weak division.
Carolina Panthers
2014 Record: 7-9
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (5th year)
Notable Additions: CB Charles Tillman, WR Jarret Boykin, T Michael Oher
Notable Departures: DE Greg Hardy, RB DeAngelo Williams, T Byron Bell
Offense:
The Panthers proved their allegiance to quarterback Cam Newton this offseason by giving him a massive contract extension (5 years/$103.8 mil/$60 mil guaranteed) that will keep with the team until 2020. Newton has been productive in his first 4 years in the league despite having consistently middling receivers, no rushing game and after Jordan Gross and Geoff Hangartner retired in 2013, a terrible offensive line that allows him no time to throw the ball.
2015 may prove be to Newton's toughest challenge to-date. His top wideout from a year ago, Kelvin Benjamin is now out for the season after tearing his ACL during practice 2 weeks ago. Benjamin's level of production (73 REC, 1,008 YDS, 9 TD) and knack for making spectacular catches and big plays is going to be sorely missed in 2015.
Newton's new de facto number one receiver is rookie Devin Funchess. Funchess was one of the most head-scratching picks of the 2nd round of the draft due to his lack of a polish as route runner, elite speed and inconsistent hands, but the Panthers are clearly very high on him as they traded up 16 picks to draft him. On the bright side, Funchess has a similarly imposing stature as Benjamin and will be so flooded with targets that he could be productive.
Newton's other receivers are similarly unproven. Corey Brown (formerly known as Philly Brown) is an intriguing yet raw speedster who could thrive in the slot, Jarret Boykin looked good at times in Green Bay, but it's unclear whether or not he impressed on his own or the excellence of Aaron Rodgers just made him look good, and Jerricho Cotchery and Ted Ginn Jr. are just too damn old to be relied on as starters. Regardless of who starts, at least 1 of these guys is going to have to step up and help take some of the burden off of Funchess.
Newton's new de facto number one receiver is rookie Devin Funchess. Funchess was one of the most head-scratching picks of the 2nd round of the draft due to his lack of a polish as route runner, elite speed and inconsistent hands, but the Panthers are clearly very high on him as they traded up 16 picks to draft him. On the bright side, Funchess has a similarly imposing stature as Benjamin and will be so flooded with targets that he could be productive.
Newton's other receivers are similarly unproven. Corey Brown (formerly known as Philly Brown) is an intriguing yet raw speedster who could thrive in the slot, Jarret Boykin looked good at times in Green Bay, but it's unclear whether or not he impressed on his own or the excellence of Aaron Rodgers just made him look good, and Jerricho Cotchery and Ted Ginn Jr. are just too damn old to be relied on as starters. Regardless of who starts, at least 1 of these guys is going to have to step up and help take some of the burden off of Funchess.
The one luxury Newton has is the ability to check down to tight end Greg Olsen. Olsen is one of the most consistent tight ends in the game and enjoyed a career year in 2014 (84 REC, 1,008 YDS, 6 TD). Olsen is an especially valuable asset to have given the lack of weapons and experience among the team's wide receivers and he should help this offense overcome some of the adversity their facing in the passing game at the moment.
With all of the red flags in their receiving corps, the Panthers are going to be forced to rely on the running game more than ever. Jonathan Stewart is being touted around the league as a breakout candidate simply because he has a firm grasp on the starting job, but I'm not buying it. While Stewart looked good down the stretch in 2014, his lengthy injury history is cause for major concern. Stewart has not played a full season since 2011 and with the near-guarantee of receiving a heavy workload this season , it's very likely that he gets banged up yet again.
Aside from Stewart, the rest of the running depth chart is a little shaky. Veterans Fozzy Whitaker and Jordan Todman are respectable situational runners, but have struggled anytime they've been asked to step into the starting role and rookie Cameron Artis-Payne lacks the burst and vision to handle a brunt of the carries at the NFL-level. If Stewart can remain healthy and produce, the running game will be fine. If not, the Panthers could be going yet another season without having a viable running back on their roster.
Aside from Stewart, the rest of the running depth chart is a little shaky. Veterans Fozzy Whitaker and Jordan Todman are respectable situational runners, but have struggled anytime they've been asked to step into the starting role and rookie Cameron Artis-Payne lacks the burst and vision to handle a brunt of the carries at the NFL-level. If Stewart can remain healthy and produce, the running game will be fine. If not, the Panthers could be going yet another season without having a viable running back on their roster.
Defense:
The Panthers have established their identity as a defensive football team since Ron Rivera took over as head coach in 2011. While the team struggled out of the gate without defensive end Greg Hardy- who was deactivated for the entire season after being found guilty of domestic abuse- in the first half of the year, they eventually regained their mojo and finished in the top 10 in overall defense. Without almost all of their starters returning, there's no reason to believe that this unit won't be one of the best in the league again in 2015.
The Panthers front 7 is one of the most terrifying in the league and even with star outside linebacker Thomas Davis turning 32 and defensive end Charles Johnson end turning 29 during the offseason, I don't expect them to lose any traction in 2015. Their pass-rush led by Johnson and Mario Addison is one of the most relentless in the league, their starting defensive tackle combo of Kawann Short and Star Lotulelei is a massive brick in the wall in the middle of the defensive line and inside linebacker Luke Kuchely is a bona fide superstar who is only becoming more dominant by the year. Even with pass-rushing specialist Frank Alexander set to miss the miss the entire season with a torn Achilles, the Panthers are one of the most well-rounded and deep defensive fronts in the league.
While the front 7 gets a majority of the attention, the secondary flies under the radar and has just as much, if not more talent than their counterparts up front. Cornerback Bene Benwikere and safety Tre Boston are 2 of the most unheralded and gifted young defensive backs in the league. These guys didn't enter the starting lineup until the latter stages of the 2014 season, but once they got there, they made a huge impact. Benwikerie and Boston helped right the ship after veterans Thomas DeCoud and Charles Godfrey struggled mightily in the first half of the year and ended up grading out as 2 of the 30 best defensive backs in the NFL for the 2014 season according to Pro Football Focus. Throw in the talent of veteran Charles Tillman, who is hungry to prove he can still play at age 34 after tearing his tricep 2 years in a row, and the Panthers could have the makings of a top-tier pass defense in 2015.
Bottom Line:
Even with all of the question marks on offense, the Panthers are still the most talented team in the NFC South and should remain the frontrunners to win the division barring a mass amount of injuries or a complete implosion by Newton.
New Orleans Saints
2014 Record: 6-10
Head Coach: Sean Payton (8th year)
Notable Additions: RB C.J. Spiller, C Max Unger, CB Brandon Browner
Notable Departures: TE Jimmy Graham, OLB Junior Gallette, WR Kenny Stills
Offense:
The national media has spent most of the offseason saying that Drew Brees time as an elite NFL quarterback is officially over with. Personally, I'm not buying this propaganda for a second. Yes Brees is now 36. Yes, the offseason trades of star tight end Jimmy Graham and deadly slot receiver Kenny Stills hurt the quality of the receiving. Yes, he threw an uncharacteristically-high 17 INT's last year. However, none of these things mean he's lost his edge. Brees may have had a "down year" in 2014, but he still tied for the league lead in passing yards (4,952) and threw 33 TD's, despite the fact that his offensive line was less-than-stellar and his defense's ineptness undermined his quality performances for a majority of the season.
As for the receiving corps, there's more than enough talent here to aid Brees in getting another 4,500-yard season. 2nd-year wideout Brandin Cooks should lead the charge and has the potential to put up massive numbers if utilized properly, Marques Colston is a reliable veteran option who can still put up 2 or 3 huge games a year and Brandon Coleman is a massive redzone target (6"6, 220 lbs) who could make waves after buried on the depth chart last season (he was a healthy scratch for a majority of last season). The bottom line is that it's way too early to bury Brees and I'd be completely surprised if he didn't retain his elite form in 2015.
As for the receiving corps, there's more than enough talent here to aid Brees in getting another 4,500-yard season. 2nd-year wideout Brandin Cooks should lead the charge and has the potential to put up massive numbers if utilized properly, Marques Colston is a reliable veteran option who can still put up 2 or 3 huge games a year and Brandon Coleman is a massive redzone target (6"6, 220 lbs) who could make waves after buried on the depth chart last season (he was a healthy scratch for a majority of last season). The bottom line is that it's way too early to bury Brees and I'd be completely surprised if he didn't retain his elite form in 2015.
While Brees' alleged demise and the revamped receiving corps have taken most of the headlines this offseason, the Saints quietly improved their rushing game. The Saints brought in C.J. Spiller in free agency to split carries with Mark Ingram, who pick up a new contract after posting is 1st career 1,000-yard season in 2014, and got center Max Unger in the trade that sent Graham to the Seahawks. Spiller has the potential to thrive like he did in his early years in Buffalo as a complementary option to Ingram and Unger is one of the best pure run-blocking centers in the league and should help stabilize an interior line that struggled at times last season. I still don't believe Sean Payton's vows that they're going to become a run-first team this year, but they certainly have the tools to have a much more balanced and competent rushing attack in 2015.
Defense:
Bottom Line:
The Saints abysmal defensive play was the primary reason the team fell from grace in 2014. While the Saints clearly recognized this problem and took action this offseason, I don't believe the moves they made are going to be able patch up the abundance of issues they have.
Their defensive front was the root of a lot of their problems a year ago as star defensive end Cameron Jordan had an off-year and their rushing defense could not stop anyone they faced. Their front going into this year could be even worse now that outside linebacker Junior Gallette is gone. Gallette was basically the sole pass-rusher the Saints had last year and losing him is a devastating blow to a front that was already hurting for talent. Gallete's replacement, rookie Hau'oil Kikaha, has plenty of upside, but it's highly unlikely he'll be the destructive edge-rushing force Gallete was.
Elsewhere on the front, the Saints are either relying on guys that struggled last year (John Jenkins, Akiem Hicks, David Hawthorne), veterans whose best days are well behind them (Kevin Williams, Dannell Ellerbe, Anthony Spencer) and raw rookies (Stephone Anthony, Davis Tull, Tyeler Davison) to stabilize the front. Unless the rookies are all breakout stars, I don't see how this front can come together and become something formidable this season.
Elsewhere on the front, the Saints are either relying on guys that struggled last year (John Jenkins, Akiem Hicks, David Hawthorne), veterans whose best days are well behind them (Kevin Williams, Dannell Ellerbe, Anthony Spencer) and raw rookies (Stephone Anthony, Davis Tull, Tyeler Davison) to stabilize the front. Unless the rookies are all breakout stars, I don't see how this front can come together and become something formidable this season.
The fate of the secondary doesn't look quite as grim, but there's no guarantee they're going to be excellent. A lot of their success is going to come depend on how well safety Jarius Byrd recovers from the torn meniscus he suffered early last season. Byrd was one of the best safeties in the league prior to the Saints signing him last season and if he can get back to the level he was during his tenure with the Bills, the secondary should be greatly improved in 2015.
The rest of the Saints secondary doesn't have nearly as much as upside as Byrd. Free agent pickup and projected starter cornerback Brandon Browner is useless if he doesn't lock up his receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, safety Kenny Vaccaro got benched last season because of his poor play and top corner Kennan Lewis, while very talented, has not been able to stay healthy since he came to the Saints in 2013. There's a decent shot that Vaccaro can return to the dominant form of his rookie year and Lewis avoid injury and have a hell of a season, but those are not bets you can rely on this point in time. The Saints secondary is equally likely to return to the top 10-15 form they had in 2013 or maintain their bottom-10 standing from last season.
The rest of the Saints secondary doesn't have nearly as much as upside as Byrd. Free agent pickup and projected starter cornerback Brandon Browner is useless if he doesn't lock up his receivers within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage, safety Kenny Vaccaro got benched last season because of his poor play and top corner Kennan Lewis, while very talented, has not been able to stay healthy since he came to the Saints in 2013. There's a decent shot that Vaccaro can return to the dominant form of his rookie year and Lewis avoid injury and have a hell of a season, but those are not bets you can rely on this point in time. The Saints secondary is equally likely to return to the top 10-15 form they had in 2013 or maintain their bottom-10 standing from last season.
Bottom Line:
The Saints have a potent offense that can run up 28+ points a game without breaking a sweat, but I don't see how they can make the playoffs with their current defensive personnel.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2014 Record: 2-14
Head Coach: Lovie Smith (2nd year)
Notable Additions: DT Henry Melton, OLB Bruce Carter, DE George Johnson
Notable Departures: DE Michael Johnson, S Dashon Goldson, QB Josh McCown
Offense:
After watching their 2014 season go up in flames due to the collective failures of quarterbacks Josh McCown and Mike Glennon, general manager Jason Licht decided to use the number 1 overall pick in the 2015 draft on Jameis Winston. While Winston isn't a exactly a slam dunk pick, he's the best chance the Buccaneers have of reversing their fortunes in 2015.
In all my 5 years of deeply assessing NFL-bound quarterbacks, Winston is the single most polarizing prospect I've ever seen. Winston has the look of a great quarterback with his fantastic pocket presence, arm strength and the remarkable football IQ he demonstrated during the pre-draft process. On the other hand, his gunslinger mentality leads to a ton of INT's, his throwing mechanics are inconsistent and his inconsistency while throwing on the run could lead to failure at the next level.
In addition to his on-the-field problems, Winston brings a whole hell of a lot off-the-field baggage that implies he doesn't have the maturity or focus to be successful in the NFL. Winston was reportedly very transparent and genuine in pre-draft interviews about the various off-the-field incidents that got him national headlines and backlash during his time at Florida State. Those interviews were clearly enough to convince the Bucs to roll the dice on him, but Winston is going to have to prove early on that the transparency and maturity he showed in those interviews wasn't just a facade to preserve his status as a high-draft pick.
In addition to his on-the-field problems, Winston brings a whole hell of a lot off-the-field baggage that implies he doesn't have the maturity or focus to be successful in the NFL. Winston was reportedly very transparent and genuine in pre-draft interviews about the various off-the-field incidents that got him national headlines and backlash during his time at Florida State. Those interviews were clearly enough to convince the Bucs to roll the dice on him, but Winston is going to have to prove early on that the transparency and maturity he showed in those interviews wasn't just a facade to preserve his status as a high-draft pick.
Winston is entering a pretty ideal situation offensively as he gets to throw to the deadly 1-2 receiver punch of Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson and work with a proven pass-happy offensive coordinator in Dirk Koetter (Koetter was with the Falcons for the past 3 seasons) right out of the gate. I honestly can't remember the last time a rookie quarterback got to work with that much talent around him at the start of his career. The receiving corps should also benefit from Winston's presence. Both Evans and Jackson put up over 1,000 yards with horrid quarterback play last year. Unless Winston ends up completely tanking, it's highly unlikely that they can't improve upon those numbers in 2015.
The factor that could ultimately decide how Winston fares this year is the play of the offensive line. The Buccaneers line has been an abomination the past and their play played a huge role in the offense's ineffectiveness last season. As I stated earlier, Winston is at his best as a pocket passer. If he's forced to run for his life, the team will suffer and be on the fast track to the bottom of the league yet again.
As of right now, the prospects of this line being good this year are not very high. Left tackle Demar Dotson, who has the only reliable member of this line this past 2 seasons, is already out for the first month of the year with a severe knee sprain and they're relying on 3 first-time NFL starters in guard Garrett Gilkey, tackle Patrick Omameh and rookie tackle Donovan Smith to step up and fix the o-line problems that has ruined the franchise over the past few years. Making matters is worse the 2 proven veterans on the line, guard Logan Mankins and center Evan Smith, are both coming off the worst years of their careers and haven't shown any signs in the preseason that they've returned to form. If Winston can keep his head screwed on and his offensive line can prevent him from getting lit up, he could very well turn into a viable franchise quarterback.
As of right now, the prospects of this line being good this year are not very high. Left tackle Demar Dotson, who has the only reliable member of this line this past 2 seasons, is already out for the first month of the year with a severe knee sprain and they're relying on 3 first-time NFL starters in guard Garrett Gilkey, tackle Patrick Omameh and rookie tackle Donovan Smith to step up and fix the o-line problems that has ruined the franchise over the past few years. Making matters is worse the 2 proven veterans on the line, guard Logan Mankins and center Evan Smith, are both coming off the worst years of their careers and haven't shown any signs in the preseason that they've returned to form. If Winston can keep his head screwed on and his offensive line can prevent him from getting lit up, he could very well turn into a viable franchise quarterback.
Defense:
For whatever reason, head coach Lovie Smith thought it would be a smart idea to snatch up every free agent that played for him while he was with the Bears. Smith brought in defensive tackle Henry Melton, safety Chris Conte, outside linebacker Khaseem Greene, cornerback Isiah Frey and re-signed safety Major Wright this offseason. Outside of Melton and Wright, none of these guys made much of an impact when they played for Smith in Chicago, so bringing them to Tampa Bay doesn't make a whole hell of a lot of sense.
Aside from bringing in some scrap-heap Bears players, The Buccaneers made some subtle tweaks that should help this defense perform more consistently this year. They went out and added veterans at almost every position on defense, bringing in defensive end George Johnson, defensive tackle Tony McDaniel, inside/outside linebacker Bruce Carter, safety D.J. Swearinger and cornerback Sterling Moore through free agency and trades. Only Johnson and Carter are slated to start, but all of those guys should help boost the depth problems that plagued this defense a year ago.
In order for the Buccaneers defense to live up to their immense potential, players aside from stud defensive tackle Gerald McCoy and outside linebacker Lavonte David are going to have step up and perform each and every week. Defensive tackle Clinton McDonald, cornerback Alterraun Verner and Wright are among the best in the league at their respective positions when they're are on their game. All 3 of these guys had their moments in 2014 (especially Verner who was downright dominant in a few games), but couldn't parlay those bursts of strong play into long-term success and it ultimately led to the Bucs losing a lot of close games (9 of the 14 Bucs losses were by a touchdown or less) and having a defense that ranked near the bottom of the league in every major category. The Buccaneers have the 2-3 marquee players necessary to be a powerhouse similar to what Smith had during most of his tenure with the Bears, the supporting cast around them just needs to play with a consistent edge.
Bottom Line:
This squad wasn't nearly as bad as their 2-14 record a year ago suggests and with some definite improvements made this offseason, they should improve by a notable margin in 2015. I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to see them take the division if Winston plays well.
Projected Standings for the NFC South:
1.Carolina Panthers (9-7)
2.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-8)
3.New Orleans Saints (7-9)
4.Atlanta Falcons (6-10)
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