Friday, August 21, 2015

2015 NFL Preview: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
2014 Record: 12-4
Head Coach: Jason Garrett (5th year)
Notable Additions: DE Greg Hardy, RB Darren McFadden,  ILB Jasper Brinkley
Notable Departures: RB DeMarco Murray, OLB Bruce Carter, DT Henry Melton
Offense:
The Cowboys suffered one of the biggest losses of the offseason when they lost running back DeMarco Murray to the Eagles in free agency. Murray, who led the league in rushing in 2014 with a ridiculous 1,845 yards, was the centerpiece of this offense and the primary reason the Cowboys were able to clinch their first playoff berth since 2009. Many experts have downplayed the loss of Murray due to the Cowboys elite offensive line who can create massive rushing lanes on just about every play. They may still have the best offensive line in football, but that doesn't mean their running attack will be anywhere near as deadly as it was a year ago. Their current running backs have either never started in the NFL (Joseph Randle, Lance Dunbar) or are more fragile than a box full of glassware (Darren McFadden). Randle is expected to get the starting job, but based on his poor training camp performance and limited sample size (he hasn't surpassed 55 carries in either of his first 2 NFL seasons), it's far from a guarantee that he'll thrive as the starter. Murray's effectiveness took pressure off quarterback Tony Romo and ate up a ton of clock time, which in turn kept their lackluster defense off the field. I'd be highly surprised if the Cowboys had the same luxury this year.
If the rushing attack doesn't come to fruition, Romo has the ability to carry this offense. With a receiving corps led by superstar Dez Bryant, grizzled veteran Jason Witten and TD magnet Terrence Williams, Romo could very well flirt with a 5,000-yard this season in 2015. The Cowboys have been a pass-first offense for most of the last decade and that should once again be the case in 2015.

Defense:
 Defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli deserve all the credit in the world for making this talent-barren defense respectable in 2014 (8th against the run, 26th against the pass,19th overall). The Cowboys rewarded Marinelli's inhuman display of coaching wizardry with a 3-year contract extension and the addition of some intriguing young talent that should make his job a little bit easier this season. 

The clear highlight of the Cowboys offseason haul was defensive end Greg Hardy. The signing of Hardy was extremely controversial in the wake of the domestic abuse charges that forced him to miss all but 1 game in 2015, but there's no denying that he's one hell of a football player. Hardy has picked up 23 sacks in his last 24 games played and barring some bizarre drop in production, should immediately wreak havoc on opposing quarterback once he returns from 4-game suspension against the Patriots in Week 5. The Cowboys also went out and used their 1st-round pick on an athletic freak in cornerback Byron Jones to help patch up their horrid secondary and hopefully take away top corner duties from veteran burnout Brandon Carr and brought in veterans Jasper Brinkley and Andrew Gachkar to sure up their depth at linebacker. The Cowboys didn't much cap space or high-draft picks to work,  but they managed to pull down a pretty impressive group of new players that should help this defense improve in 2015.   

The Cowboys success on defense is largely going to hinge on how well their young pass-rushers DeMarcus Lawernce and Randy Gregory fare. Hardy is the only consistent pass-rusher the Cowboys can out on at the moment and they're going to need a strong pass rush  to take pressure off of their awful secondary. The young duo have a lot to prove as Lawrence as largely ineffective in his rookie year (he didn't get a sack until the Wild Card round of the playoffs) and Gregory's draft stock took a nose dive due to his poor performance in pre-draft interviews and workouts. Both of these guys have sky-high ceilings and could eventually morph into one of the league's top pass-rushing duos, but for now they have to prove they can handle the speed and mental drain of the NFL. The Cowboys defense more than likely won't transform into a top-tier defense, but there's surely a lot more reasons to be excited about this unit than there was this time last year.

Bottom Line: 
Without a proven workhorse back to carry the load, The Cowboys will likely fail to reproduce their success from 2014 and revert back to the above-average team they've been for much of the past half-decade.

New York Giants
2014 Record: 6-10
Head Coach: Tom Coughlin (12th year)
Notable Additions: RB Shane Vereen, WR James Jones, CB Josh Gordy
Notable Departures: S Antrell Rolle, OLB Spencer Paysinger, S Stevie Brown

Offense:
There is arguably not another offense in the NFL with more question marks than the Giants. Can Victor Cruz return to form after tearing his patellae tendon? Can the offensive line hold up without veteran Will Beatty in the lineup for at least the first half of the season? Can rookie Ereck Flowers handle starting at left tackle out of the gate? Can Rashad Jennings, Andre Williams or the newly-acquired Shane Vereen emerge as a legit NFL starting running back? If all or most of these work out, this offense could contend to be the top offense in football-especially if they can lineup a healthy Cruz next to budding superstar Odell Beckham Jr. If not, the Giants will falter mightily and probably employ the "throw the ball to Odell 15-20 times a game" strategy they used once Cruz and Jennings went down last year. Since it's the Giants and you really never what the hell you're going to get from them, both of these options have about equal probability of coming true.

The stabilizing figure in this offense is quarterback Eli Manning. Manning throws a lot of INT's and can be extremely erratic at times, but when he's on, this offense thrives and can outscore just about anyone in the league. Despite a trashy running game and basically no help from his offensive line, Manning's 2014 numbers were his best (4,440 YDS, 30 TD, 14 INT, 92.1 QBR) since their title run in 2011. If he can actually get some protection from his offensive line and Beckham Jr. and Cruz can stay healthy and continue to produce at a high level, those numbers should only improve this year. Even with all the murkiness that surrounds this offense, there's no denying that they're one of the most intriguing groups in the league heading in 2015 season 

Defense:
The offense may have a plethora of question marks surrounding it, but those uncertainties are nothing compared to the nightmares this defense is facing heading into 2015.

Unless you've been in a coma or vacationing on Mars for the past month, you're probably aware of the fact that defensive end Jason Pierre-Paul lost one of his fingers in a fireworks accident over the 4th of July weekend. Pierre-Paul-who was given the franchise tag in March-is the team's top pass-rusher by leaps and bounds and is one of the best run-stopping defensive ends in the NFL. As of today, there's no word if Pierre-Paul will return to the team this year or at all. With Pierre-Paul out of the mix indefinitely, their defensive line is basically screwed this season.

On top of the Pierre-Paul disaster, they didn't bring anyone into help fix their horrible rush defense that ranked 30th in the league a year ago and their safety situation became so grim after Antrell Rolle and Stevie Brown departed in free agency that they just brought in Brandon "The Party Starter" Merriwheather to potentially start alongside rookie Landon Collins. The organization is optimistic that Collins and fellow rookie defensive Owamagbe Odigizuwa will be able to remedy some of their defensive woes, but even if they both work out, they are only 2 guys on a defense that is almost completely full of holes. If they can't fix their inability to stop the run, find a pass-rusher and lock down 2 solid safeties, it could be a very long for the G-Men on defense.

About the only positives the Giants can relish in heading into 2015 is the return of former defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo and cornerback Prince Amukamara to the starting lineup. Spagnuolo was the architect of the horrifying pass rush that anchored the Giants 2007 Super Bowl run and could potentially unlock the talent in their raw young players like Odigizuwa and third-year defensive end Damontre Moore and further bolster the pass-rushing skills of defensive tackle Jonathan Hankins, who enjoyed a breakout 7-sack last season in 2014.

Amukamara is an even more welcome return. He was playing at an All-Pro-caliber level before going down with in early November with a torn bicep and his services will be needed more than ever with all of the other issues in the Giants secondary. Amukamara and his fellow starter Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie have the potential to be one of the better starting corner duos in the league and could really help this defense remain respectable as they try to figure out a solution to their front seven and safety woes.

Bottom Line:
The Giants are too well coached to be complete failures, but their plethora of question marks on both sides of the ball make them longshots to make the playoffs.

Philadelphia Eagles
2014 Record: 10-6
Head Coach: Chip Kelly (3rd year)
Notable Additions: RB DeMarco Murray, QB Sam Bradford, CB Byron Maxwell
Notable Departures: RB LeSean McCoy, WR Jeremy Maclin, QB Nick Foles
Offense:
Head coach Chip Kelly became the general manager in February and he made a hell of entrance into the world of general managing. Kelly used his newfound player personnel control to dump most of the key components from an offense that ranked in the top 10 every major offensive category a year ago. Kelly traded 2013 rushing champion LeSean McCoy to the Bills and starting quarterback Nick Foles to the Rams, let top wide receiver Jeremy Maclin walk in free agency and released both of their Week 1starting guards (Evan Mathis and Todd Herremans) from a year ago. These moves were drastic to say the least and the jury is still out on whether or not Kelly is a bold, risk-taking visionary or a complete lunatic for making them.

Kelly was equally aggressive in replacing his departed players with equally high-profile talent. Kelly made his intent to keep the Eagles as a run-first offense clear by bringing in 2 of the top free-agent running backs in 2014 rushing champion DeMarco Murray and former Chargers starter Ryan Matthews. Both Murray and Matthews are high-risk players with their lengthy injury histories (and in Murray's case, historic workload a year ago), but both are incredibly hard runners who fit perfectly in Kelly's power-run scheme.

Kelly made an even riskier move at quarterback by acquiring Sam Bradford to take over for Foles. While Bradford is admittedly a perfectly competent starting quarterback, he's coming off 2 straight seasons that have been shortened by torn ACL's, making him a far from safe bet for success in 2015. The good news is that Bradford only has 1 year left on his current contract. The bad news is that if he doesn't end up returning to his pre-injury levels of production and/or gets injured for a 3rd straight year, the Eagles will once again be forced to look for a new starting quarterback in 2016.

However, the losses of Mathis and Herremans could prove to be the loss that hurts the Eagles the most in 2015. Mathis is the best pure run-blocking guard in the league and Herremans is a solid veteran starter who rarely misses blocking assignments. For whatever reason, the Eagles didn't draft any offensive lineman this season and had no contingency plan in place when they cut Mathis in late June after a contract dispute. Their current starting guard competition is between a pair of undrafted rookies (Malcolm Bunche, Brett Boyko) a 2014 practice squad player (Josh Andrews), a below-average veteran who didn't play in 2014 (John Moffit) and a converted tackle who's started a whopping 8 games in his 7-year career (Andrew Gardner). The Eagles having 3 of the best lineman in the league in Jason Peters, Lane Johnson and Jason Kelce in the other spots on the line should help ease the pan of the transition, but the lack of proven guards to help aid the running game could really hurt them in the long run.

Wide receiver is easily the spot that inspires the most confidence on this offense. Rookie Nelson Agoholor was arguably the most pro-ready receiver in this year's draft outside of Amari Cooper and Jordan Matthews should be able to build off his excellent finish last season to nicely fill the top receiver role vacated by Maclin. Throw in the presence of a rock-solid tight end who's about to enter his prime in Zach Ertz, speedster Josh Huff and respectable albeit unremarkable veterans in Miles Austin and Serij Ajirotutu, and you have one of the most quietly loaded receiving corps in the league.

Defense:
Kelly's moves on defense were nowhere near as drastic as the ones he made on offense, as outside linebacker Trent Cole, cornerback Brandon Boykin and safety Nate Allen are the only quality starters from 2014 not returning to the team in 2015. Out of these departures, only Boykin will really sting as he is one of the best slot corners in the league and the Eagles don't have anyone set to take his place.

Kelly's other moves were actually pretty good. He spent a majority of his attention addressing the porous secondary that repeatedly cost them them games in his first 2 years with the team. First off, he dumped the starting corner tandem of Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher. These guys got burnt in almost every game over the past 2 years and it's a blessing for the entire team that Kelly decided not to trot them as his starting outside corners for a 3rd consecutive year.

Of the new additions, cornerback Byron Maxwell was easily the flashiest pickup. The Eagles have been widely criticized for giving Maxwell such a huge deal (6 years/$63 mil/$25 mil guaranteed) after only starting for 1 season, but I don't really see the issue with it. Maxwell got regularly tested last season in Seattle due to  opposing quarterback's fear of throwing to Richard Sherman's side of the field and he did a pretty damn good job facing a heavy workload, grading out as a top-15 corner in 2014 according to Pro Football Focus. While Maxwell isn't a guaranteed slam dunk, he showed enough during his time with the Seahawks to lead me to believe he can be a number 1 corner in this league. The other moves lacked the name recognition of Maxwell, but they should all be able to help in the effort to turn this secondary around. Walter Thrumond is a versatile defensive back that can be lined up at corner and safety while cornerback E.J. Biggers is a respectable veteran who can be a stopgap starter in the slot (rookie JaCorey Shepard was slated to get the gig before he tore his ACL in training camp.) However,  the most intriguing addition aside from Maxwell to this secondary is rookie Eric Rowe. Rowe was one of the most underrated defensive backs in this year's draft and with his versatility to play any position in the secondary and strong ball and tackling skills, he should be able to come in and be a productive starter right away. If this rebuilt secondary can come together as planned, this defense will no longer have to worry about their secondary costing them games.

While the secondary was the primary focus of the Eagles defensive rebuilding effort, Kelly also landed a very talented piece for his front 7 when the Bills sent over inside linebacker Kiko Alonso in the trade for McCoy. Alonso had an excellent rookie year in 2013 (he finished 2nd in voting behind Jets defensive end Sheldon Richardson for Defensive Rookie of the Year) before being sidelined for all of 2014 with a torn ACL. Alonso- who played under Kelly at Oregon- is a perfect fit for this fast, instinctive front and should be in line for an excellent year if he's the same player he was prior to the ACL tear. Pairing Alonso with edge-rushing savage Connor Barwin and premier run-stopping defensive end Fletcher Cox makes this front a nightmare in the making for opposing offenses. 

Bottom Line: 
2015 will be the season in which we figure out if Chip Kelly is a mad genius or just a madman. Whatever the results ends up being, the Eagles will be the single most fun team to watch this season.

 

Washington Redskins
2014 Record: 4-12
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (2nd year)
Notable Additions: DT Terrence Knighton, OLB Junior Galette, CB Chris Culliver
Notable Departures: OLB Brian Orakpo, RB Roy Helu Jr., DE Jarvis Jenkins

Offense:
If you take a good look at the Redskins offense, you'll probably be surprised by the amount of talent they have. Alfred Morris is a consistent 1,000+ yard rusher, Trent Williams is an athletic freak who ranks among the best tackles in the league, rookie Jamison Crowder was one of the most impressive slot receiver prospects in this year's draft and wide receiver DeSean Jackson is arguably the best pure deep threat in the league. There's just one major problem: They don't have a quarterback that can be counted on.

Unless a miracle happens, poor quarterback will once again sink the Redskins offense. As of today, 4th-year trainwreck Robert Griffin III is penciled in as the starter. His confidence, throwing mechanics and dynamic running ability all went out the window after he tore his ACL in the Wild Card playoff game against the Seahawks at the end of his rookie year in 2012 and they don't appear to be coming back. The Redskins decision this past April to exercise his 5th-year option for 2016 is a complete head-scratcher. I know that they gave away an insane amount of draft picks to trade up and draft him, but the ship on RG3 being a franchise quarterback has long since sailed (the regression he's displayed since his spectacular rookie season is unprecedented) and it's time for the Redskins to start exploring other options. 

If RG3 goes down with an injury for the 46th time in 4 years, their other options at quarterback aren't much better. Kirk Cousins-who has long been touted as the franschise's savior if RG3 didn't work out- showed flashes of promise in the early part of his tenure as starter last season while RG3 was out with an ankle injury before completely crapping out and throwing 9 INT's in his last 4 starts before going down with an injury himself. Their 3rd stringer is none other than Colt McCoy, a veteran journeyman who is lucky to still be in the league at age 29. When a low-tier backup like McCoy is the best quarterback on your roster, you have some serious problems.

Defense:
 New general manager Scot McCaughlin worked under John Schneider during his first 4 years as the Seahawks general manger (McCaughlin resigned from the job prior to the 2014 season to seek treatment for his alcoholism). McCaughlin spent his first year as the Redskins general manager mimicking Schneider's formula for success by making major changes to a defense that desperately needed them.

McCaughlin took advantage of the team's healthy amount of cap space to bring in talented veterans who can come in and contribute right away. The most drastic changes were done on the defensive line as they dumped aging starters Barry Cofield and Stephen Bowen for Terrence Knighton and Stephen Paea. Knighton and Paea give the Redskins young, versatile weapons up front who can stop the run and get to the quarterback with equally proficiency. The Redskins further beefed up the front 7 by selecting promising pass-rusher Preston Smith in the 2nd round of this year's draft and signing troubled yet talented outside linebacker Junior Gallette right around the start of training camp. Pairing the new additions alongside incumbent stars Jason Hatcher and Ryan Kerrigan makes this front 7 a potential powerhouse in 2015.

While McCaughlin made a lot of great pickups on the front seven, his moves (or lack thereof) in the secondary leave a lot to be desired. Aside from cornerback Chris Culliver- who was very impressive last season with the 49eers, none of the new additions seem primed to make much of an impact on this secondary. Safety Dashon Goldson is not even a quarter of the player he was when in his early years with the 49ers and has been one of the worst coverage safeties in the league during his past 2 seasons with the Buccaneers, Jerron Johnson rarely played anything besides special teams during his tenure with the Seahawks and rookies Kyshoen Jarrett and Deshaor Everett will be lucky to make the team. With guys like the ancient and oft-injured cornerback DeAngelo Hall and atrocious safety Duke Ihenacho projected to be in the starting lineup, it's kind of astonishing that McCaughlin didn't use a high-draft pick or sign a big-ticket free agent on a safety or cornerback that could potentially turn this unit around. Culliver and second-year cornerback Bashaud Breeland could be a surprisingly stout corner pairing, but their lack of depth and horrible safeties will more than likely keep this secondary in the bottom half of the league for a 3rd straight year.

Bottom Line: 
The Redskins made some definite improvements in the offseason, but their lack of a quarterback and question marks on the back end of their defense makes them one of the least threatening teams in the NFC.

Projected Standings for the NFC East:
1.Philadelphia Eagles (10-6)
2.Dallas Cowboys (9-7)
3.New York Giants (7-9)
4.Washington Redskins (5-11)

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