Thursday, August 13, 2015

2015 NFL Preview: AFC West

Denver Broncos
2014 Record: 12-4
Head Coach: Gary Kubiak (1st year)
Notable Additions: TE Owen Daniels, DE Antonio Smith, DT Vance Walker
Notable Departures: TE Julius Thomas, DT Terrence Knighton, G/T Orlando Franklin

Offense:
 After putting up numbers that were in-line with their record-breaking 2013 campaign for the first 11 games of the year, the Broncos offense hit a wall in the last 5 weeks of the 2014 season after Peyton Manning sustained a quad injury. Manning's injury caused his accuracy to take a nosedive and forced the Broncos to become one-dimensional offense with running back C.J. Anderson to carry the load for their offense. Manning's ineffectiveness didn't really cost them (they went 4-1 in the regular season after he suffered his injury) until the team's ugly playoff loss at the Colts when Manning seemingly couldn't complete a pass after throwing a quick touchdown on the opening drive.

The 2015 season will likely be even more of a struggle for the future Hall-of-Famer. Manning is now 39 years old and with his play deteriorating the way it did at the end of the year, it's unlikely he'll return to the dominant form he showed throughout 2013 and the first half of last season. Even if Manning returns in peak physical form this season, their entirely rebuilt offensive line is a major reason for concern. Aside from guard Louis Vazquez, there's not a single starter returning from the end of last season. As of today, the new starters will be Ryan Harris (left tackle), Chris Clark (right tackle), Shelley Smith (left guard) and Gino Gradkowski (center), who all come with serious red flags. Harris is a once-dominant tackle who just got cut by the offensive line-deficient Chiefs, Clark was the starting right tackle for all of 2013 and part of 2014, but his poor play got him benched around the halfway mark last year and both Smith and Gradkowski were nothing short of abysmal in their previous starting jobs with the Dolphins and Ravens respectively. A great offensive line allowed Manning to put up the numbers he did during his 3 years with the Broncos and with that no longer in the equation, his descent from greatness could happen faster than expected.

The offensive line woes are also likely to hinder the running game. Departed center/guard Manny Ramirez and guard/tackle Orlando Franklin were excellent run blockers who played pivotal roles in helping Anderson and Ronnie Hillman enjoy breakout seasons last year. With them gone, it's going to be incredibly difficult for any back in this offense to match their production from a year ago. Anderson is also completely unproven as a starting running back. While his play in the second half of last season was impressive, he did most of his damage against run defenses that ranked near the bottom of the league and he ended the year on a cold note by failing to rush for 100 yards in the last 5 games of the year. There's a lot of hype surrounding Anderson going into this season, I just haven't enough from him yet to buy into it.

What will prevent the Broncos offense from completely imploding is their receiving corps. Even with the loss of tight end Julius Thomas in free agency, the Broncos still have one of the most gifted groups of pass-catchers in the league. Demaryius Thomas is one of the most lethal, well-rounded number 1 wideouts in the league, Emmanuel Sanders keeps getting better by the season, and new starting tight end Owen Daniels is a reliably productive player who should nicely take over Thomas's role. The Broncos offensive production will likely take a significant step back from the past couple of years, but they should still be able to put up a solid amount of points per game.   

Defense:
What gets buried under all the accolades and praise the Broncos offense over the past few years is just how good this defense is They finished 3rd in total defense (2nd against the run, 9th against the pass) and sent 5 guys to the Pro Bowl (Von Miller, Chris Harris Jr., Aqib Talib, T.J Ward and DeMarcus Ware) in 2014 and yet still no one gives them the respect they deserve. With all of the uncertainty looming within their offense, this could very well be the year when people begin to recognize how the good this unit is.

Even with the losses of key contributors in defensive tackle Terrence Knighton and safety Rahim Moore and a switch from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme under new defensive coordinator Wade Phillips, the Broncos defense should still have one of the best defenses in the league. Harris Jr. and Talib are arguably the top corner tandem in the league, Miller is the most well-rounded and consistently dominant outside linebacker in football,  their pass-rush is very solid and should only better with 2015 1st-round pick Shane Ray in the mix, and the return of inside linebacker Danny Trevathan-a top contributor in 2013 who missed 13 games last year with a knee injury- to the starting lineup should make the linebacking corps that anchors their stout run defense even stronger this year.

The only real flaw this defense has is their lack of quality replacements for Knighton and Moore. Their projected replacements in the starting lineup- nose tackle Sylvester Williams and free safety Darian Stewart- have underwhelmed in their careers so far. Williams has never morphed into the line-disrupting defensive tackle the Broncos thought he would be when they drafted him in the first round in 2013 and Stewart was one of the weakest members of a Ravens secondary that ranked 23rd in the league against the pass last season. If Williams and to a greater extent, Stewart fail to improve, the Broncos defense could be in line for a steep regression in 2015.

Bottom Line:
Although they are not quite as strong as they've been the past couple of years, the Broncos have enough talent to be a more than respectable team and win the AFC West.

Kansas City Chiefs
2014 Record: 9-7
Head Coach: Andy Reid (3rd year)
Notable Additions: WR Jeremy Maclin, G Ben Grubbs, S Tyvon Branch
Notable Departures: C Rodney Hudson, WR Dwayne Bowe, DT Vance Walker

Offense:
 The Chiefs smartly went out and used what little cap space they had this offseason to pick up free-agent wide receiver Jeremy Maclin. Maclin's familiarity with Andy Reid's system (Maclin played under Reid for 4 years with the Eagles) and proficiency in the short-passing game makes him the perfect fit for the Chiefs conservative passing attack. Maclin may not be able to put up the eye-popping numbers he did with the Eagles last year, but he'll almost certainly be a major improvement over last year's number 1 wideout Dwayne Bowe and should become the first Chiefs wide receiver to find the endzone since December 8, 2013, in which Bowe caught an early touchdown in a 45-10 blowout win over the Browns.

Aside from the addition of Maclin, this is the basically the exact same same vanilla offense the Chiefs have had since Reid arrived in Kansas City in 2013. The offense will mostly go through workhorse running back Jammal Charles and quarterback Alex Smith will throw the ball over 15 yards no more than 3 times per game. While Charles has successfully carried this offense in the past, I have a feeling this is going to be the year where he finally starts to shows signs of wear. The workload he's taken over the past 3 seasons has been brutal,especially for a running back that's approaching 30 and the Chiefs piss-poor offensive line managed to get even worse this offseason when they lost their only reliable starter-center Rodney Hudson- to free agency. If Charles breaks 1,200 yards at age 28 going on 29 with a line anchored by an over-the-hill Ben Grubbs and all-but confirmed draft bust Eric Fisher, it'll be a miracle of Biblical proportions.

With Charles's downfall merely being speculation at this point, the biggest issue this offense needs to address is finding someone to lineup alongside Maclin at wide receiver. Someone other than Maclin and tight end Travis Kelce is going to have to emerge as a reliable receiving option if they want to avoid a repeat of last year's wildly inept passing game and as of right now, they don't appear to have anyone that can do that. Their current projected starter De'Anthony Thomas is good for a splash play here and there, but is too small (5"10, 174 lbs) to be a starter in the NFL. The other options they currently have on the roster aren't much  better. Jason Avant is a below-average veteran who brings nothing noteworthy to the table and rookie Chris Conley, while extreme athletic, is about as unpolished as a receiver selected in the 3rd round can possibly be. If none of these guys can grab a solid hold on the starting job during the preseason, the Chiefs will end up regretting passing on the likes of Nelson Agholor, Breshad Perriman and Dorial Green-Beckham in the draft once the season starts. 

Defense:
Before I break down the defense as a whole, I have to give a major shoutout to safety Eric Berry. The 3-time Pro Bowler will be returning to football less than a year after being diagnosed with Hodgkin's lymphoma. Berry is the epitome of a warrior and I hope he kicks a whole lot of ass this season.

As for the rest of the Chiefs defense, they appear to be line for another solid season. Their excellent secondary was further bolstered by the selection of cornerback Marcus Peters-who was arguably the most pro-ready corner in the 2015 class-in the first round of the draft and the re-signing of 2014 NFL sack leader Justin Houston assures that the Chiefs will have a devastating pass rush once again in 2015.

In addition to Berry's remarkable return, the Chiefs will also be getting inside linebacker Derrick Johnson back on the field in 2015 after he missed almost the entire 2014 season with a torn Achilles. Their defense did fine without him in 2014, but Johnson's leadership and ability to make plays over the field was sorely missed last season. If the 32 year old gracefully recovers and returns to the perennial All-Pro form he displayed before suffering this severe injury, he could be the X-factor that leads the Chiefs defense to a top 5-10 overall defensive ranking in 2015.  

Bottom Line:
The Chiefs aren't without their fair share of really gifted players, but the cloudy state of their offense should force them to miss the playoffs for a 2nd straight year.

Oakland Raiders
2014 Record: 3-13
Head Coach: Jack Del Rio (1st year)
Notable Additions: C Rodney Hudson, WR Michael Crabtree, DT Dan Williams
Notable Departures: WR James Jones, S Tyvon Branch, RB Darren McFadden
Offense:
Don't look now but the Oakland Raiders might have their first legitimate offense since their Super Bowl run in 2002. Derek Carr showed some real potential in his rookie season, even with a lackluster receiving corps around him. To rectify the lack of weapons around their young QB, the Raiders went out and revamped the receiving corps this offseason by drafting Amari Cooper in the 1st round of the draft and signing Michael Crabtree in free agency. Cooper has the size, speed and route-running ability needed to be a number 1 wideout in this league and he'll get ample opportunity to prove his worth right out of the gate while Crabtree gives this young group a solid veteran presence who can be really effective when he's on his game.

The Raiders also finally dumped oft-injured starter Darren McFadden in favor of third-year back Latavius Murray. Murray has never had a heavy volume of carries in his career and his injury history is a bit disconcerting (he missed his entire rookie year with a foot injury), but he showed excellent elusiveness and speed when he was on the field last year and could end up being something special if he proves to be durable enough to take on the brunt of the carries in this offense.

The Raiders further took advantage of their massive amount of cap space to fortify their offensive line with the addition of former Chiefs center Rodney Hudson. Hudson was one of the best centers in the league a year ago and should be able to take this already respectable offensive line to the next level. If the Carr/Cooper/Murray trio ends up delivering and this offensive line holds up, the Raiders offense could end up turning a lot of heads in 2015.

Defense:
The Raiders weren't able to use their substantial amount of cap space to bring in any elite level defensive talent on the open market, but general manager Reggie McKenzie did bring in some solid veterans to add their promising young front led by outside linebacker Sio Moore and defensive end Khalil Mack. Dan Williams is a highly underrated defensive tackle who became one of the top run-stuffers in the league during his 5-year tenure with the Cardinals, Inside linebacker Curtis Lofton is a tackling machine and Super Bowl XLVII MVP Malcolm Smith is a solid outside linebacker with a winning pedigree (he spent his first 4 seasons with the Seahawks) who adds depth to this talented linebacking corps.

A majority of the Raiders problems lie in their secondary. Even with the continuously strong play from the  seemingly ageless Charles Woodson and the addition of competent cover safety (and one of the lone standouts from the terrible 2014 Eagles secondary) Nate Allen in free agency, this secondary doesn't appear to be set to turn things around due to their awful cornerback group. Their top corner right now is former 1st round pick D.J. Hayden, who has been nothing but terrible since he entered the league in 2013 and the guys battling for the other starting spot are either extremely inexperienced (T.J. Carrie, Keith McGill) or journeyman who have failed to make any impact along the way (Ras-l Dowling, Chimdi Chewka). While the Raiders defense is far from terrifying, their free agent pickups and addition of a defensive-savvy head coach in Del Rio should help this unit noticeably improve from last season.

Bottom Line:
While there's optimism in Oakland for the first time in what seems like forever, it's going to be a few years before this team can be viewed as a legitimate threat.

San Diego Chargers
2014 Record: 9-7
Head Coach: Mike McCoy (3rd year)
Notable Additions: WR Stevie Johnson, G/T Orlando Franklin, S Jimmy Wilson 
Notable Departures: RB Ryan Matthews, WR Eddie Royal, C Nick Hardwick (retired)
Offense:
The Chargers found themselves in the middle of the pack in terms of offense last season (18th to be exact) despite injuries that kept running backs Ryan Matthews and Danny Woodhead out for a majority of the year and an underwhelming sophomore season from top wideout Keenan Allen. Their success last season (especially in the passing game, where they ranked 10th in the league) is a testament to how good quarterback Phillip Rivers is at dealing with adversity and the fact that their 34-year old tight end Antonio Gates refuses to age.

With very little changeover and an improved offensive line, the Chargers should be able to easily top their 2014 output. Rivers is still in the middle of his prime and the addition of Stevie Johnson-who was highly efficient in his limited playing time with the 49ers last season- gives him another solid veteran wideout that can be counted to make plays when called upon. If Allen can bounce back and Ladarius Green can finally live up to his potential while Gates is suspended for the first 4 games of the year, Rivers should be in line for a season that rivals his career-best 2013 campaign.

The Chargers ability to achieve greatness this season is going to hinge on whether or not rookie running back Melvin Gordon lives up to to the hype. The Chargers have enjoyed their best seasons in the Rivers-era when they've had a dominant running back to lean on (see: Ladainian Tomlinson or 2013 Matthews). Just look at last season, the team's rushing attack ranked 30th in the league due to absence of Matthews and Woodhead and they ultimately finished just shy of making the playoffs. They clearly believe Gordon can be their next go-to guy in the backfield, but he is going to have become a more consistent receiver out of the backfield, improve in pass protection and fix the major fumbling problem that haunted throughout his college career at Wisconsin if he wants to be the next workhorse Chargers running back. If Gordon's potential is fully realized, this offense is going to be something special.

Defense:
The Chargers defense is arguably the most bizarre one to gauge in the entire NFL. On the one hand, their front seven is awful and ranked near the bottom of the league in run defense (26th) and sacks (29th). On the other hand, their secondary was remarkable last season ranking 4th in the league behind yet another All-Pro year for star safety Eric Weddle and a gigantic bounceback for cornerback Brandon Flowers. Look for this once again to be the case in 2015.

Due to their decision to give Flowers a long-term deal and bring in free agent offensive lineman Orlando Franklin from the Broncos (which were both good moves), they couldn't afford to bring in a game-changing piece to sure up their front 7. Their 2nd round draft pick Denzel Perryman is a hard-hitting enforcer who could help turn the run defense around, but didn't bring in anyone to help out their anemic pass-rush. The only way their pass rush can become respectable in 2015 is if Melvin Ingram and Jeremiah Attaochu step their game up big time. While both have their struggled, they've shown flashes of production. Attaochu picked up 2 sacks in his injury-riddle rookie year in 2014 and Ingram was a pass-rushing demon in college who's been hampered by injuries in the first 4 years of his NFL career, but picked up 4 sacks in 9 games played in 2014. If these two can live to their potential and stay healthy, their whole front 7 will improve dramatically. 

Meanwhile, the secondary appears to be great shape this season. Free-agent pickup Jimmy Wilson is a definite improvement over Marcus Gilchrist, who was the only weak link in the secondary last season, and 2nd year corner Jason Verrett appears set to flourish after his promising rookie season was cut short due to a shoulder injury. As long as Flowers revitalization wasn't a 1-year fluke, this secondary will be among the league's best once again. If the Chargers can solve their problems in their front 7 and keep playing well on the back end, this defense could very well surprise in 2015.
Bottom Line: 
While the Chargers have a reliable veteran quarterback and great coaching staff, their rough schedule, weak defensive front and lack of a proven starting running back should keep them on the wrong side of the playoff bubble in the AFC.

Projected AFC West Standings:
1.Denver Broncos (10-6)
2.San Diego Chargers (8-8)
3.Kansas City Chiefs (7-9)
4.Oakland Raiders (6-10)

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