Fantasy "experts" on all of the major fantasy sites spend this time of year throwing out five or 10 point plans on how to dominate your league, win a guaranteed championship, etc. I'm hear to tell you that all of those columns and television segments are bullshit. In my 10 years of playing fantasy football, I've discovered that the only thing that guarantees titles is securing highly productive players (a.k.a sleeper picks) in the second half of the draft. Like everything else in fantasy football, you're going to strike out more often than you strike gold (To use an example from last year for every Emmanuel Sanders there's a Justin Hunter), but when you hit it big on two or three late-round picks, you'll be firmly at the top of your league come the end of December. Here are the guys I believe have the greatest odds of being late-round breakout candidates for the 2015 season.
Quarterback: Teddy Bridgewater (Vikings) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 119.0 NFL.Com: 122.6 ESPN: 120.7 )
Teddy Bridgewater's rookie campaign was marred with inconsistency (he finished the season with 14 TD's and 13 INT's in 13 games), but he showed enough flashes of greatness to lead me believe that 2015 could be the year he breaks out. According to Pro Football Focus, Bridgewater graded out as the best passer on the run in 2014 and his numbers down the stretch (8 TD's, 71.7 CMLP%, 105.5 Passer Rating in his final five games) seems to indicate that he's starting to find his groove in the NFL. Bridgewater also has the added bonus of having running back Adrian Peterson return to the starting lineup in 2015. Peterson's presence in the lineup all but assures that the defense will be stacking the box to stop him, which should allow Bridgewater more opportunities to thrive in the passing game and build on his impressive finish to the 2014 season. As long as he can cut down on his INT total from last season and develop a rapport with his revamped receiving corps led by the flashy albeit wildly inconsistent veteran Mike Wallace and highly-touted third-year player Charles Johnson, Bridgewater has the potential to be a top-10 fantasy QB in 2015.
Other Potential Sleepers: Derek Carr (Raiders), Nick Foles (Rams), Blake Bortles (Jaguars)
Running Back: Ameer Abdullah (Lions) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 91.3 NFL.Com: 134.8 ESPN: 84.0)
The pick may seem a little confusing since the Lions have veterans Joique Bell and Theo Riddick on their roster, but I believe Abdullah will rise above the pack and get the starting job. Bell is 29 years old and had pair of major surgeries on his Achilles and knee this offseason and Riddick is only effective as a situational pass-catching back. Bell's health problems and Riddick's limited skill set should open the door for the rookie out of Nebraska to get a majority of the workload. Abduallah has the versatility, durability and vision needed to be an everydown back in the NFL and with six games on the schedule against the horrid run defenses of the Vikings, Packers and Bears, he's on the right track for a highly successful 2015 campaign.
Other Potential Sleepers: Ryan Matthews (Eagles), Danny Woodhead (Chargers), David Johnson (Cardinals)
Wide Receiver: Allen Robinson (Jaguars) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 78.0 NFL.Com: 136.7 ESPN: 88.3)
The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't exactly synonymous with excellence in real or fantasy football of late, but second-year wide receiver Allen Robinson offers up a huge glimmer of hope. Robinson was extremely efficient in his rookie campaign a year ago, demonstrating sure hands and an ability to run any route asked of him before getting put on the injured reserve with a foot injury after the Jaguars Week 10 game with the Cowboys. Now 100% healthy with a quarterback in Blake Bortles hungry to prove he was worth a first-round pick, Robinson is in a great place heading into the 2015 season. The Jaguars have a legion of young receivers, but Robinson seems to be firmly in place as the number one and should get peppered with targets all season long. As long as Robinson stays healthy, he should be a consistent high-end WR3/low-end WR 2 with a high-end WR2/low-end WR1 ceiling, especially in PPR leagues.
Other Potential Sleepers: Marvin Jones (Bengals), Breshad Perriman (Ravens), Stevie Johnson (Chargers)
Tight End: Josh Hill (Saints) (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 91.7 NFL.Com: 149.9 ESPN: 129.2)
The loss of Jimmy Graham has been the clear top story coming out of New Orleans this offseason. Graham was arguably the most important part of the offense outside of quarterback Drew Brees and his towering presence in the redzone (37 TD's over the past 3 seasons) will be sorely missed. Thankfully for the Saints, the man replacing Graham, has a similar skill set. Josh Hill had 5 TD's a year ago as Graham's backup and with more extensive work and a lack of other big redzone targets on the Saints roster, those numbers should go way up. Hill may not put Graham-esque numbers, but a 700+yard, 10-TD campaign is well within the realm of possibility.
Other Potential Sleepers: Charles Clay (Bills), Vernon Davis (49ers), Tyler Eifert (Bengals)
Defense: Denver Broncos (Average Draft Position: Yahoo!: 124.4 NFL.Com: 143.5 ESPN: 115.8)
Not a single preseason ranking baffled me more than the Broncos being projected as the 17th best fantasy defense on Yahoo!, behind defenses like the Lions, Browns and Colts who all either suffered major losses in the offseason or just aren't particularly good. This defense was ranked just outside the top 10 scoring fantasy defenses last year (11th to be exact) and only lost two starters (defensive tackle Terrence Knighton and safety Rahim Moore) from 2014. The Broncos defense retained all five of their Pro Bowlers from a year ago (Von Miller, Chris Harris Jr., T.J. Ward, DeMarcus Ware, Aqib Talib) and still have one of the best secondaries and pass rushes in the league. Anything less than a top 10-12 finish for them would be fairly shocking.
Other Potential Sleepers: Miami Dolphins, New York Jets, Minnesota Vikings
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