Thursday, August 9, 2018

2018 NFL Preview: AFC North

Baltimore Ravens
2018 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC North)
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (11th season)
Notable Additions: WR Michael Crabtree, WR Willie Snead, WR John Brown
Notable Departures: C Ryan Jensen, WR Mike Wallace, S Lardarius Webb 
-After a couple years of relying on Mike Wallace as their top wideout and crossing their fingers Breshad Perriman would suddenly turn into the premier deep threat they thought they were getting when they drafted him 26th overall back in 2015, the Ravens have finally significantly retooled their receiving corps. Outside of Perriman and Chris Moore, no receivers from their active roster a year ago are still on the team. The men tasked with turning around a flaccid passing attack that finished 29th in the league last year will be led by a platoon of familiar veterans including Michael Crabtree, Willie Snead and John Brown. While all of these guys have (predominantly injury-related) baggage that can't be ignored, they also have legitimate talent that could be brought out by John Harbaugh and his solid coaching staff. Brown is a borderline stellar deep threat when he's healthy, Snead was a nice contributor on the Saints offense before he fell out of favor with Sean Payton last season and despite his shaky hands, Crabtree has been one of the best redzone threats in the league over the past several years (25 TD's since the start of 2015). This overhaul could very well end up yielding poor results, but I salute Ozzie Newsome for at least putting forth a well-conceived, high-risk/high reward attempt to address one of his team's most prominent recurring issues.

-The "Lamar Jackson is going to take Joe Flacco's job" narrative that has been making the rounds since the start of the OTA's strikes me as nothing more than baseless offseason fodder. Don't get it twisted, I completely understand why this narrative has gained traction. Jackson was an electric college quarterback with a Heisman Trophy on his resume and Flacco is coming off arguably his poorest season as a pro (3,141 YDS, 18 TD, 13 INT, 64.1 CMP%). However, Jackson's passing mechanics, timing and pocket presence are going to need some serious work before he's tasked with being a full-time starting quarterback in the NFL. Flacco could very well be on his way out of Baltimore before too long, but I just can't envision a non-dire scenario where Jackson surpasses him on the depth chart this season.

-Continuing with what seems to quickly becoming a recurring theme in this series, the Ravens offensive line could prove to be a serious problem. Considering the fact that this offense is largely devoid of playmakers and appears set to be centered around a running back (Alex Collins) with less than a full season of starting experience under his belt, poor offensive line play could sink this team from wild card contender to the bowels of the league. Outside of promising young left tackle Ronnie Stanley, every position is a question mark. Matt Skura is shifting over to center after starting 12 games at guard season, right guard Alex Lewis has limited starting experience (8 games as a rookie) and missed all of last season with a separated shoulder and after a nightmarish stretch at guard last year, the Ravens are hoping that a return to his natural position of right tackle will help James Hurst improve. Even future Hall-of-Fame guard Marshal Yanda, who is trying to bounce back from a broken ankle that sidelined for just about all of 2017, can't be relied on for his usual brilliance. For a team that has been blessed to have an abundance of top-tier talents including Jonathan Ogden, Kelechi Osemele, Eugene Monroe, Matt Birk and Yanda line up on their o-line over the years, 2018 could offer up the horrors in the trenches that this organization has largely avoided during its 23-year existence.

-Despite not having a feared enforcer like Ray Lewis or Ed Reed stalking the middle of the field, the Ravens defense has remained one of the most reliably strong groups in the NFL for the bulk of this decade. Even with longtime coordinator Dean Pees departing for the Titans this offseason, there doesn't seem to be any reason to believe that's going to change this season. Their key contributors (Eric Weddle, Tony Jefferson, Jimmy Smith, C.J. Mosley, Brandon Williams, Michael Pierce and ageless wonder Terrell Suggs) are all back and new DC Don Martindale, whose been with team since 2012 as a linebackers coach, is familiar enough with the personnel to (conceivably) make the transition as smooth as possible. Considering the slew of question marks surrounding their offense, they're going to need to this defense to play well in order to keep the hopes of ending their 4 year- playoff drought alive.    

Bottom Line:
As stagnant as they are offensively, the Ravens have enough defensive talent and intelligent coaches to contend for a playoff spot in the piss-poor AFC.

Cincinnati Bengals
2018 Record: 7-9 (3rd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Marvin Lewis (16th season)
Notable Additions: T Cordy Glenn, DT Chris Baker, ILB Preston Brown
Notable Departures: QB AJ McCarron, C Russell Bodine, CB Adam Jones
-The Bengals made one of the funniest and least surprising moves of the offseason by deciding to retain Marvin Lewis as head coach. While you could make a respectable argument that Lewis gets more than shit than he deserves, the fact remains that he's had a plethora of golden opportunities to turn this team into a viable contender and for a myriad of reasons (lack of discipline, poor decisionmaking, costly turnovers by his players, flat-out bad luck), he's squandered every single one of them. If Mike Brown even wants a chance of getting his franchise out of the gutter of perpetual disappointment they've been in since the early 90's, he needs to move past the comfort of mediocrity that Lewis provides and hand the reigns over to someone new.

-After several years of downturns that were set in motion by the departures of All-Pros Andrew Whitworth and Kevin Zeitler, the arrow might finally be pointing up on the Bengals o-line.  Rookie center Billy Price was one of the most polished lineman in this year's draft class and despite his so-so 2017 season, Cordy Glenn has quietly been one of the most reliable left tackles in the league over the past 4-5 years. The right tackle is admittedly kind of sketchy with Giants castoff Bobby Hart currently projected to start and right guard Trey Hopkins was pretty unimpressive during his 12 starts a year ago, but this group should still mark a notable improvement over the last couple years where there were pretty much no rushing lanes and Andy Dalton was getting acquainted with the turf on at least 60-65% of his dropbacks.

Any hope this offense has of improving in 2018 is going to come down to how much their young players can contribute. We know that Dalton is a functional albeit far from exceptional veteran quarterback and A.J. Green is one of the league's most productive wideouts, but they've proven over the last couple of seasons that they can't carry this team by themselves. Out of Cincy's large contingent of whippersnappers, starting running back Joe Mixon easily has the best shot of making an impact. While his rookie campaign wasn't particularly encouraging from a yardage standpoint (626 yards on 178 carries, which averages out to a pretty dismal 3.5 yards per carry), he showed enough promise down the stretch to indicate that he could turn into a solid 3-down back at some point in the near future. When you move on to their young wideouts, the outlook becomes much cloudier. Tyler Boyd has shown some encouraging flashes during his first 2 years in the league, but he hasn't been consistent enough to prove he's anything more than a #4 option in the passing game and even though there's no reason to have any confidence in his ability to develop after being designated as a healthy scratch for half of his rookie season, John Ross' absurd athleticism should at least give  him a chance to make some plays if he can start to wrap his head around the playbook. There's a lot of pressure for these young guys to step up and if they all end up underwhelming, the Bengals extended run of misery has basically zero chance of coming to an end in 2018.

-Like their counterparts in Baltimore, the Bengals defense has been a fixture among the league leaders for quite some time now. If they live up to their potential, they could be even more stout than usual this season. New DC Teryl Austin emerged as one of the more respected defensive minds in the league during his tenure with the Lions, their pass defense seems in line to improve with promising young corner William Jackson III replacing the aging Adams Jones in the starting lineup and most notably, they bolstered their already strong front 7 led by perennial Pro Bowler Geno Atkins with the additions of Chris Baker and Preston Brown. A top 5 finish in scoring defense is well within the realm of possibility.  

Bottom Line:
Different season, same average-to-below-average Bengals.     

Cleveland Browns
2018 Record: 0-16 (4th in AFC North)
Head Coach: Hue Jackson (3rd season)
Notable Additions: WR Jarvis Landry, ILB Mychal Kendricks, QB Tyrod Taylor
Notable Departures: T Joe Thomas (retired), CB Jason McCourty, RB Isaiah Crowell
-Thought it was impossible for a team coming off a historically bad season to have a sizable hype train? Well the 2018 Cleveland Browns are spitting in the face of common logic with pundits and fans alike expecting a significant turning of the tide to occur a mere 9 months after they became the 2nd team in NFL history to have a winless season. Personally, I think this notion is absolutely fucking ludicrous. Sure they overhauled their front office with the hiring of GM John Dorsey, who did a pretty job drafting during his tenure with the Chiefs and brought in some talented players in free agency, but as far as I see it, the majority of these moves have the familiar wretched stench of the Browns written all over them. Make a possession receiver (Jarvis Landry) with a limited route tree and average YAC ability one of the highest paid players at his position? Sounds like the same old Browns to me. Draft a physically-gifted receiver (Antonio Callaway) with questionable character and dedication to football? Sounds like the same old Browns to me. Throw a rookie quarterback whose attitude was considered his biggest flaw coming out of college (Baker Mayfield) into a toxic environment that seems destined to bring out the worst in him? Sounds like the same old Browns to me. Pair an offensive coordinator who has a history of feuding with his peers (Todd Haley) with an arrogant, condescending head coach (Hue Jackson) who seems to revel in throwing his players under the bus? Sound like the same old Browns to me. Decide to retain the aforementioned King Dink Jackson as head coach after winning 1 game in his first 2 years as coach? Sounds like the same old Browns to me.  If Dez Bryant decides to put a halt to his "I'M STILL AN ELITE WR" power trip and accept their contract offer, the Browns facility could very well turn into a real-life version of The Running Man by the end of September. To put all of this rambling garbage more concisely, no amount of talent in the world can make up for a group full of combustible individuals that are capable of dragging down the team's effort, morale and cohesiveness at any time.

-The battle between Mayfield and Tyrod Taylor for the starting quarterback job should prove to be one of the more interesting competitions in the league. On one hand, it's pretty clear that Dorsey acquired Taylor from the Bills with the intent of having him be the stopgap starter while they developed whatever young QB they drafted. On the other, Mayfield has been the darling of camp thus far and recent history has shown us that teams almost always bail out on their plans (Jared Goff, Mitch Trubisky, Deshaun Watson, several others) to wait to start their young, potential franchise signalcallers. Taylor's sharp decisionmaking along with the cache he earned last year from breaking a long-suffering franchise's lengthy playoff drought makes him a sensible opening day starter, but it wouldn't surprised me at all if he gets the hook around mid-season if when the Browns aren't racking up the W's.

-An ESPN report came out last week that Taylor and Mayfield purchased an RV that they're using as a QB's-only hangout spot during training camp. If that camper wasn't purchased as a safe place for them to lament being brought to Cleveland involuntarily and subsequently drowning their sorrows with various substances in between practices, I'll be severely disappointed and legitimately surprised.

-While they seem to have enough talent upfront (Kevin Zeitler, Joel Bitonio, JC Tretter) to not completely fall apart without him on the field, the retirement of Joe Thomas still seems destined to cast a gloomy shadow over this team. Thomas was just about the only steady presence in that locker room over the past 11 seasons and the absence of his positive influence in a locker room that just brought in a sizable band of hot-headed, egotistical clowns could lead to this dumpster fire burning even brighter than usual this season.

-It took me 4 paragraphs and roughly 700 words to do so, but I'm finally going to say something nice about the Browns: this defense is actually pretty damn good! While their turnover-happy offense helped sink their scoring defense (25.6 points allowed per game, 2nd worst in the league),  DC/gridiron masochist Gregg Williams was able to otherwise turn this unit into a pretty formidable group last year (17th against the pass, 7th against the rush) and their array of new additions should only further aid their ascent up the league hierarchy. Former Eagles inside linebacker Mychal Kendricks should mark a massive improvement over Christian Kirksey, whose poor tackling and coverage skills really hurt this group last year and their slew of new additions in the secondary (E.J. Gaines, Damarious Randall, Terrance Mitchell, rookie Denzel Ward) should give them the depth that they lacked on the back end last season. Bolstering most of their problem areas with the addition of established veteran talent while simultaneously trusting their young players to continue on their currently promising trajectory (Myles Garrett, Carl Nassib, Larry Ogunjobi) is pretty much the smartest thing Dorsey has done since he took over as GM last December.

Bottom Line:
Flashy new additions aren't enough to convince me that this Browns team isn't going to be hot garbage again.    

Pittsburgh Steelers
2018 Record: 13-3 (1st in AFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (12th season)
Notable Additions: S Morgan Burnett, ILB Jon Bostic, S Nat Berhe
Notable Departures: WR Martavis Bryant, S Mike Mitchell, CB William Gay
-Kevin Colbert's decision to select Mason Rudolph appears to have awakened the fierce competitor buried deep within Ben Roethlisberger. It's funny what drafting a potential successor will do to motivate someone like Roethlisberger-who has been out of shape and seemingly indifferent towards playing football for most of this decade. This team has been a force in the AFC with a semi-lethargic  Roethlisberger under center, so it's kind of frightening to think what could they accomplish when he's motivated and constantly looking over his shoulder. Don't be stunned if Big Ben enjoys a bump to similar what Tom Brady had following the Patriots drafting of Jimmy Garoppolo back in 2014.

-Le'Veon Bell has played an integral part in the success the Steelers have enjoyed over the past 4 seasons. Even with the plethora of injuries of varying severity he's amassed during that time, Bell has totaled a ridiculous 6,737 yards from scrimmage (4,476 rushing, 2,261 receiving) in 49 games since 2014. However, his days as the most feared dual-threat running back in the league could very well be numbered. The 26-year old has again displayed his shaky commitment to the game by failing to report to training camp for the 2nd straight year after turning down a pretty lucrative long-term extension offer (5 years/$70 million/$30+ mil guaranteed) from the Steelers and after setting a new career high in touches (406) last season, it's only a matter of time before that absurd workload causes his play to deteriorate. While Bell passing on their extension will likely end going down as a dodged bullet for them, the Steelers better hope that Bell doesn't hit that proverbial wall and/or miss a significant amount of time this season. They simply don't have a DeAngelo Williams-type player that will allow them to run their offense without any serious hiccups like they did when Bell tore his MCL in 2015. As much as you want to root for him to succeed, James Conner wasn't overly impressive as a rookie (144 yards on 32 carries) and him being thrust into the starting job would likely take away from the dynamism that makes the Steelers offense so deadly. The options behind Conner are arguably even less trustworthy. Stevan Ridley has been a ghost since his 1,263-yard season with the Patriots back in 2012, rookie Jaylen Samuels, who played tight end at NC State, doesn't seem like he's elusive or powerful enough to make much of an impact in the pros and Fitzgearald Toussiant's only notable NFL contribution to-date was losing the fumble that helped seal a Divisional Round win (and eventually a Lombardi Trophy) for the 2015 Broncos. Top receivers Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are enough to keep this offense humming along regardless of Bell's contributions or health, but there's no denying that this well-oiled machine would take a pretty substantial hit in production if Bell doesn't put up his typical monster numbers.

-Keith Butler has done a very good job of turning this defense around since he took over as DC in 2015. He's inserted some much needed diversity into the soft zone-driven schemes his predecessor Dick LaBeau ran and the secondary, which was a huge crutch once Troy Polamalu and Ike Taylor started to show their age, has significantly improved under his tutelage. However, filling the gap left by Ryan Shazier is going to be the one of the steepest challenges of his tenure thus far. Their defense regressed significantly once the up-and-coming inside linebacker suffered a horrific spine injury against the Bengals last December and that gap in the middle of their defense definitely helped contribute to the relentless beatdown the Jaguars offense put on them in their Divisional Round loss. As evidenced by his play in relief of Shazier, Tyler Matakevich isn't suited to be a starter at this level and journeyman Jon Bostic likely won't be much of an improvement if he ends up taking his spot in the starting lineup. This void at left inside linebacker along with the continued struggles of returning starter Vince Williams at the other spot gives Butler a lot to work at this crucial position in the month before the next season.        

Bottom Line:
Barring a sudden break in their Groundhog Day-esque loop, the Steelers should have another dominant regular season followed by a disheartening playoff exit in 2018.

Projected Standings:
1.Pittsburgh Steelers (11-5)
2.Baltimore Ravens (8-8)
3.Cincinnati Bengals (6-10)
4.Cleveland Browns (4-12)   

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