Thursday, August 2, 2018

2018 NFL Preview: NFC East

Dallas Cowboys
2017 Record: 8-8 (2nd in NFC East)
Head Coach: Jason Garrett (8th season)
Notable Additions: WR Allen Hurns, WR Tavon Austin. T Cameron Fleming
Notable Departures: TE Jason Witten (retired), WR Dez Bryant, ILB Anthony Hitchens
-As much as Captain America Jerry Jones will try to deny it, the Cowboys are going to miss Dez Bryant and Jason Witten this season. Even with their diminishing speed and production, their familiarity with Scott Linehan's system made them reliable cogs that could be counted onto to make plays in clutch situations. Making matters worse is the lack of proven commodities they brought into replace these stalwart vets. Rookie Michael Gallup is a raw prospect that didn't have a lot of experience against top-tier competition while he was at Colorado State, Tavon Austin is a specialist that can only be deployed on gadget plays, Deonte Thompson is a journeyman veteran with limited upside as an outside receiver and nagging injuries have hampered Allen Hurns' ability to perform on a consistent basis since his 1,000+ yard campaign in 2015. Unless one of these guys can break out or returning vets Terrance Williams and Cole Beasley can greatly improve upon their traditionally average play, expect the Cowboys already suspect passing game (26th in the league a year ago) to regress even further in 2018.

-Speaking of the passing game, this is going to be a pivotal season for the development of Dak Prescott. There's some legitimate doubt surrounding the 2016 Offensive Rookie of the Year's ability to turn into a franchise QB after a 2017 season where his completion percentage (from 67.8% in 2015 to 62.8% in 2017), passing YDS (3,667 to 3,324) and TD's (23 to 22) decreased while his INT's nearly tripled (4 to 13). In addition to his weaker statistics, I felt that he looked far less confident running the offense and often failed to make plays when his team needed him to. Despite his disappointing 2017, it would be naïve to think that Prescott isn't capable of getting back on track. He's proven to be a pretty good decisionmaker, is a generally accurate passer when he's not under pressure and should benefit from having star running back Ezekiel Elliott available for the full 16-game slate this year.  However, the aforementioned lack of weapons in the passing game combined with the relatively vanilla playcalling of Linehan could potentially make his road back to being the Cowboys very productive, uncontested long-term starter pretty bumpy.

-Suddenly switching Byron Jones to cornerback is a very curious decision. I understand that they have been trying to sure up their secondary for years now and the powers that be are very high on Jeff Heath and Xavier Woods, but it seems counterintuitive to suddenly make the guy with the most starting safety experience on the roster switch to a position he hasn't played since his days at UConn- particularly when you have a pair of young guys (Chidobe Awuzie and Jourdan Lewis) that showed big flashes of potential at multiple corner spots during their rookie campaigns last season. Counting on Jones to start at outside corner is a head-scratching move for a team with a below-average defense that shouldn't be in the business of taking unnecessary personnel risks.  

-It's really hard to not consider the possibility that Jones' antics could end up having a serious effect on this team moving forward. His explosive comments to the media last week implying that his players will lose their jobs if they don't properly respect the National Anthem are now bringing a considerable level of heat towards the organization that could've been avoided completely had Jones simply answered the question in a more levelheaded (lol), non-hypocritical fashion. The last thing a relatively young team needs after a disappointing season is a massive distraction caused by the idiot owner's desire to sound off on an "issue" that would've been long dead if the NFL was ran by anyone with a shred of common sense. If this scrutiny continues into the regular season, it could very well end up forcing the Cowboys to have a complete meltdown.

Bottom Line:
A hole-filled roster combined with the potential internal problems stemming from Jones' antics makes me think that the Cowboys will be out of the playoff mix for a 2nd straight year.  

New York Giants
2017 Record: 3-13 (4th in NFC East)
Head Coach: Pat Shurmer (1st season)
Notable Additions: T Nate Solder, ILB Alec Ogletree, OLB Connor Barwin
Notable Departures: DE Jason Pierre-Paul, G Justin Pugh, C Weston Richburg
-No bad team from a year ago has higher rebound potential than the Giants. The bulk of their struggles can be attributed to the rash of major injuries they endured (Odell Beckham Jr., Janoris Jenkins, pretty much their entire offensive line) and the PR nightmares Ben McAdoo caused with his blasé approach to coaching. Plus if you look at the numbers, all of their big name players that appeared in double-digit games were able to put together excellent seasons (Damon Harrison, Olivier Vernon, Landon Collins) while everything burned around them. If their key players can remain healthy and Pat Shurmer doesn't end up being a complete dink, this team should be in the thick of playoff mix.

-Like the Cowboys and Jaguars before them, the Giants are hoping selecting a running back at the top of the 1st round will be enough to kickstart their sleepy offense. Based on what he did at Penn State, Saquon Barkley seems like he can be that guy. His speed, ability to make defenders miss and rare status as a true complete back (running, pass-catching and protection) in college makes him one of the most intriguing running back prospects to enter the league this decade. If he lives up to his hefty projections, Barkley is the kind of player that could relieve Eli Manning of the absurd burden he's bared in recent years and provide this offense with another explosive playmaker that could finally give this offense the much-needed diversity they've lacked since their last Super Bowl win in 2011.

-Left tackle Nate Solder was a great and necessary free agent pickup. The Ereck Flowers experiment had gone on for far too long and I'm sure Manning will appreciate not having to worry about getting decapitated on his blind side every time he drops back to pass. However, I'm not positive Solder will be enough to dramatically improve this line. The two most talented members from last year's group (guard Justin Pugh, center Weston Richburg) both walked in free agency and they're still burdened with having a shaky weakside guard/tackle combo in John Jerry and Flowers. Rookie left guard Will Hernandez, who was an absolutely dominant run-blocker at UTEP, could lead to this group overachieving, but it would be a huge shock if the Giants o-line suddenly became reliable, let alone dominant.

-The loss of DC Steve Spagnuolo was pretty much the only bad thing to come out of the firing of Diner Menu McAdoo. Thanks to his successful revival of the defense after a disastrous 2015 season where they finished near the bottom of the league in just about every major category and key role in the development of young players including Vernon, Collins and Dalvin Tomlinson, Spagnuolo was responsible for most of the silver linings of the McAdoo era. Thankfully, Shurmer brought in a similarly gifted defensive mind in James Bettcher to lead this pretty talented group. While there might be some early growing pains while they switch from a 4-3 to 3-4, Bettcher did an excellent job establishing a fearsome pass-rush and making the most out of a revolving door of personnel at multiple positions (cornerback, safety, inside linebacker, defensive end) during his 3 years as the Cardinals DC. This defense is in really good hands and unless the injury bug runs rampant again, the Giants should be in contention to be a top 10-12 scoring defense in 2018.

-While newly-acquired inside linebacker Alec Ogletree's mission to get his mojo back after an abysmal 2017 campaign will probably be a more important on-field narrative, the trade of Jason Pierre-Paul to the Buccaneers was a headline-generating move that can't be ignored. His well-publicized fireworks accident that cost him multiple fingers might have caused his sack numbers to dip a bit (he hasn't posted a double-digit sack season since 2014), but he's still an excellent run defender that has at least a couple of years left in his prime. Tasked with making up for JPP's production will be Kareem Martin and Tomlinson. Martin's, who was with the Cardinals for the first 4 years of his career, familiarity with Bettcher's defense should earn him a fair amount of reps, but his play has been consistently average while Tomlinson has been an excellent run defender in the early portion of his career, but he's not much of a pass-rusher and his transition to more of an outside end role in the 3-4 isn't a guarantee to be seamless. Vernon, Harrison and pass-rushing specialist Connor Barwin should be enough to keep this front 7 from completely falling apart, but Martin and/or Tomlinson exceeding their modest expectations would definitely help soften the blow of JPP's departure.

Bottom Line:
As long as this coaching staff isn't completely inept, the Giants have more than enough talent on both sides of the ball to compete for a playoff spot this season.
   
Philadelphia Eagles
2017 Record: 13-3 (1st in NFC East)
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (3rd season)
Notable Additions: DE Michael Bennett, DT Haloti Ngata, WR Mike Wallace
Notable Departures: ILB Mychal Kendricks, CB Patrick Robinson, TE Trey Burton
-After winning a Super Bowl with Nick Foles under center, the Eagles have every reason to be incredibly optimistic about what they can do with Carson Wentz at quarterback. While there's no denying Foles' brilliance throughout last year's improbable playoff run, Wentz was the frontrunner to win MVP when he tore his ACL in a shootout victory over the Rams in early December and helped this offense come out of nowhere to be one of the most electric groups in the NFL. Of course you have to keep the possibility that he's a single season wonder in the back of your mind, but I believe that Wentz should have no problem returning to ripping up defenses at will whenever he returns to the field this season.

-Considering how quiet he was last season, it's easy to forget that Jay Ajayi is just 2 years removed from a nearly 1,300-yard rushing campaign. The relatively recent proof that Ajayi can be a highly productive back in the league combined with the benefits of having a full offseason program to further learn Doug Pederson's system and primary carry-stealer LeGarrette Blount leave for the Lions in free agency, make him a very intriguing sleeper back this season. Considering the level of talent the Eagles have on their offensive line, bursts of brilliance he showed down the stretch (particularly in the Super Bowl) and strong possibility of being the uncontested lead back, a return to the dominant form he displayed is completely attainable if he can remain patient as a runner and stave off the effects of his lingering knee issues.

-Since they wisely chose to invest in long-term deals for Alshon Jeffrey and Zach Ertz over the past 2 seasons, they were forced to sever ties with a couple of secondary receiving threats in veteran WR Torrey Smith and tight end/Philly Special QB Trey Burton this offseason. Per usual, GM Howie Roseman devised a pretty good contingency plan for his departed assets.  Fellow stone-handed deep threat Mike Wallace probably serves as an upgrade over Smith while rookie Dallas Goedert is a massive, athletic tight end with an absurd catch-radius that is perfectly-suited for Pederson's largely vertical passing attack. Placing these guys alongside Jeffery, Ertz and the suddenly respectable Nelson Agholor should help the Eagles retain the explosiveness and spread-the-wealth mentality that helping their passing game flourish a year ago.

-Is it crazy to say that the Eagles D has gotten better since last season? Outside of the unsettled situation at inside linebacker following the surprising release of Mychal Kendricks, this group that finished 4th in the league in scoring defense in 2017 seems they like they took a universal step forward. Michael Bennett and Haloti Ngata gives them another pair of fierce run-stuffers with championship pedigrees to add to their already loaded defensive line rotation, Sidney Jones, who was only active for last season's regular season finale following an Achilles tear during his Pro Day, is a high-upside young corner that could end up winning the vacant slot corner job and a 100% healthy Ronald Darby at the top corner slot should bolster this secondary that finished 17th in pass defense last season considerably. Anything can happen in this wild league, but a defending Super Bowl Champion with an improved defense would be REALLY hard to unseat come playoff time.

Bottom Line:
With Wentz returning from injury and the bulk of their key players returning, another Super Bowl run seems like its well within the realm of possibility for the Eagles.  

Washington Redskins
2017 Record: 7-9 (3rd in NFC East)
Head Coach: Jay Gruden (5th season)
Notable Additions: QB Alex Smith, WR Paul Richardson, CB Orlando Scandrick
Notable Departures: QB Kirk Cousins, CB Kendall Fuller, S DeAngelo Hall (retired)
-Swamping out Kirk Cousins for Alex Smith is the type of baffling decision that only petty clowns like Bruce Allen and Dan Snyder would make. Why give the solid, 30-year quarterback that's been in your building for 6 years a lucrative extension when you can give that money to a guy who's 4 years older and trade a young, potential stud corner (Kendall Fuller) in the process? Another flawlessly conceived move by the Allen/Snyder braintrust! Can Smith's leadership and playoff experience benefit this locker room? Sure. Is he going to come in and cause this offense to regress horrifically? Probably not. However, giving up legit assets to acquire another veteran starter to succeed Cousins makes the decision to not give him a long-term deal when his rookie contract expired following the 2015 season even more confusing. For now, Cousins-for-Smith is a lateral move at best that could turn into an all-time gaffe if Cousins goes onto have significant success with the Vikings.

-Smith will greeted be in Washington by a group of receivers that's quite a bit weaker than what he had with the Chiefs over the past few years. The closest thing this group has to reliable pass-catching options are Jamison Crowder, who was pretty much god awful until the last 6 or 7 games last season and Chris Thompson, who is coming off of a fractured fibia. Elsewhere you have well below average veteran Brian Quick, semi-competent relic tight end Vernon Davis and a trio of admittedly talent players (Josh Doctson, Jordan Reed and free agent pickup Paul Richardson) that have missed a ton of time over the course of their young careers thus far. There's a decent chance this group will be solid if they can stay healthy, but unless Smith possess some kind of hidden power that will prevent these guys from blowing out their knees, ankles and feet, he could be dealing with quite the revolving door of receiving options during his inaugural season with the 'Skins.

-The Redskins rushing game was largely a dumpster fire last season. Outside of a few good late-season efforts from Samjae Perine, this committee headed by Rob Kelley was comically ineffective, which was evidenced by their paltry average of 90.5 yds per game on the ground (5th worst in the league). Allen drafted the potential solution to these ground game woes in Derrius Guice. Before questions surrounding his character and work ethic caused to him to slide to the end of the 2nd round (59th overall), Guice was pretty much universally touted as a 1st-round talent. He's a powerful, patient runner in the similar vein of his college teammate and current Jaguars running back Leonard Forunette who also flashed some improved pass-catching skills during his combine. If he can stay dialed-in, Guice could prove to be a massive steal and end up becoming one of the better young backs in the league.

-As I mentioned earlier, the Redskins secondary could be in serious trouble. Trading away a super promising piece in Fuller has created another gaping hole on a unit that was fortunate to finish as a top 10 pass defense. In a particularly shocking development, they dedicated pretty much no assets to addressing this issue over the offseason. The best strategy they could come up with was drafting a couple of guys on Day 3 (safety Troy Apike, cornerback Greg Storman) and signing oft-injured, ex-Cowboy Orlando Scandrick as a cheap, possibly competent running mate for top corner Josh Norman. Aside from that, it's all the suspect members of last year's group (DeShazor Everett, Fabian Moreau, Quinton Dunbar, pretty much everybody not named Norman or D.J. Swearinger) being thrust into more prominent roles. It's going to take a superhuman effort from the front 7 or a high volume of surprising play from the bulk of the names above to prevent this unit from finishing outside of the bottom of the league in pass defense.

-The saving grace of Greg Manusky's defense is the front 7. To be honest, the Redskins are in contention for the title of the league's most underrated defensive front. Their vicious pass-rush led by Ryan Kerrigan and Preston Smith registered 42 sacks a year ago (tied for 7th most in the league), Jonathan Allen appears to be on track to morph into a dominant, well-rounded force upfront within the next couple of years and while he was arguably overdrafted at #14 overall, Da'Ron Payne is the type of space-eating, interior defensive lineman that could help put a stop to their long-running woes against the run. When the curtain closes on this season, don't be surprised if the Redskins finish as one of the most productive defensive fronts in the league.

Bottom Line:
The Redskins are stuck in a realm of mediocrity that will more than likely keep them out of a top 10 draft pick as well as the playoffs for the foreseeable future.  

Projected Standings:
1.Philadelphia Eagles (12-4)
2.New York Giants (9-7)
3.Washington Redskins (7-9)
4.Dallas Cowboys (6-10)

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