Atlanta Falcons
2017 Record: 10-6 (3rd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (4th season)
Notable Additions: G Brandon Fusco, CB Justin Bethel, S Ron Parker
Notable Departures: WR Taylor Gabriel, DT Dontari Poe, DE Adrian Clayborn
-As I mentioned in my fantasy football sleeper column earlier this week, I'm baffled by the dark cloud of doubt that's surrounding Matt Ryan going into this season. Sure his TD total in 2017 was underwhelming as hell (20, which was less than future HOFer's Case Keenum and Andy Dalton) and he's not likely to match the eye-popping production he had under Kyle Shanahan with Steve Sarkisian running the offense, but to peg him as a guy who is on his last legs as a starting NFL quarterback is ridiculous to me. Ryan has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 7 consecutive seasons, hasn't completed less than 64.5% of his passes since 2011 and has the luxury of having enough weapons around him at the skill positions (including Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) that opposing defenses can't afford to hone in on just 1 player. I fully expect his numbers to be up across the board this season after his "down year" in 2017 and once again have this Falcons squad in the playoff hunt.
-Rookie wideout Calvin Ridley is a fascinating potential X-factor on this offense. His route-running prowess gives him a higher floor than recently-departed straight-line burner Taylor Gabriel, who was their #3 wideout for the past 2 seasons and elusiveness after-the-catch makes him a more exciting option than incumbent #2 WR Momhaed Sanu. If the playmaking ability and strong chemistry with Ryan he's flashed in the preseason carries over to the regular season, Ridley could be a legit Offensive ROTY contender.
-Settling the Julio Jones contract dispute early in camp was a very wise move by Thomas Dimitroff. Not having a receiver of his caliber on the field for an extended amount of time would've been highly detrimental to the offense plus keeping a veteran leader like him happy is essential to keeping overall team morale from falling off. Maybe Les Snead and Reggie McKenzie should take some notes from Dimitroff on how to deal with holdouts in a timely, levelheaded manner...
-The seemingly petty defensive coordinator change the Falcons made immediately after their historic Super Bowl 51 meltdown actually paid dividends in 2017. Marquand Manuel led this group to strong numbers across the board (8th in scoring defense, 9th in run defense, 12th in pass defense) and helped secure some wins in close games while their offense went through rough patches of varying lengths throughout the year. Upon examining their roster, you have to feel good about their odds of being even better in 2018. No members of their havoc-wreaking young corps (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Grady Jarrett, De'Vondre Campbell, Takk McKinnley) seems like they've hit their peak yet, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford are one of the best corner tandems in the game and with the possible exception of defensive end in the wake of Adrian Clayborn's departure, no position stands out as a truly crippling weakness. The Falcons very well could have the most underrated defense in the league right now and I believe that claim will only grow stronger following the conclusion of the 2018 season.
Bottom Line:
The Falcons have been a damn fine football team since Dan Quinn took over as head coach and it would be a surprise if they weren't very competitive once again this year.
-As I mentioned in my fantasy football sleeper column earlier this week, I'm baffled by the dark cloud of doubt that's surrounding Matt Ryan going into this season. Sure his TD total in 2017 was underwhelming as hell (20, which was less than future HOFer's Case Keenum and Andy Dalton) and he's not likely to match the eye-popping production he had under Kyle Shanahan with Steve Sarkisian running the offense, but to peg him as a guy who is on his last legs as a starting NFL quarterback is ridiculous to me. Ryan has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 7 consecutive seasons, hasn't completed less than 64.5% of his passes since 2011 and has the luxury of having enough weapons around him at the skill positions (including Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) that opposing defenses can't afford to hone in on just 1 player. I fully expect his numbers to be up across the board this season after his "down year" in 2017 and once again have this Falcons squad in the playoff hunt.
-Rookie wideout Calvin Ridley is a fascinating potential X-factor on this offense. His route-running prowess gives him a higher floor than recently-departed straight-line burner Taylor Gabriel, who was their #3 wideout for the past 2 seasons and elusiveness after-the-catch makes him a more exciting option than incumbent #2 WR Momhaed Sanu. If the playmaking ability and strong chemistry with Ryan he's flashed in the preseason carries over to the regular season, Ridley could be a legit Offensive ROTY contender.
-Settling the Julio Jones contract dispute early in camp was a very wise move by Thomas Dimitroff. Not having a receiver of his caliber on the field for an extended amount of time would've been highly detrimental to the offense plus keeping a veteran leader like him happy is essential to keeping overall team morale from falling off. Maybe Les Snead and Reggie McKenzie should take some notes from Dimitroff on how to deal with holdouts in a timely, levelheaded manner...
-The seemingly petty defensive coordinator change the Falcons made immediately after their historic Super Bowl 51 meltdown actually paid dividends in 2017. Marquand Manuel led this group to strong numbers across the board (8th in scoring defense, 9th in run defense, 12th in pass defense) and helped secure some wins in close games while their offense went through rough patches of varying lengths throughout the year. Upon examining their roster, you have to feel good about their odds of being even better in 2018. No members of their havoc-wreaking young corps (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Grady Jarrett, De'Vondre Campbell, Takk McKinnley) seems like they've hit their peak yet, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford are one of the best corner tandems in the game and with the possible exception of defensive end in the wake of Adrian Clayborn's departure, no position stands out as a truly crippling weakness. The Falcons very well could have the most underrated defense in the league right now and I believe that claim will only grow stronger following the conclusion of the 2018 season.
Bottom Line:
The Falcons have been a damn fine football team since Dan Quinn took over as head coach and it would be a surprise if they weren't very competitive once again this year.
Carolina Panthers
2017 Record: 11-5 (2nd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (8th season)
Notable Additions: RB C.J. Anderson, DT Dontari Poe, S Da'Norris Searcy
Notable Departures: G Andrew Norwell, DT Star Lotulelei, RB Jonathan Stewart
-Panthers fans seem to be very excited about the firing of OC Mike Shula. While it might be a case of me romanticizing a team that I'm mostly watching from afar, I was pretty impressed with what Shula was able to do throughout his 4-year tenure as the architect of the Panthers offensive attack. His playcalling is perhaps a little too conservative at times, but he was always to field a group that was at the very least competent, despite not always having a particularly deep or impressive arsenal of talent at his disposal. What's confusing me even more than the joy over Shula's dismissal is how jazzed up they are about Norv F'n Turner taking over. Turner is a primitive-minded retread who hasn't exactly fared super well in either of the OC gigs he's had (Browns in 2013, Vikings from 2014-16) since he was let go as Chargers HC following the 2012 season. Only 1 of the past 4 offenses he's ran have finished in the top half of the league in scoring and even if Greg Olsen bounces back after an injury-plagued 2017 and rookie wideout D.J. Moore is able to make an impact right away, something tells me that this not-so-deep-or-talented group will be able to him break him out of the rut he's been in since he planted the seeds for the Cowboys Triplets-era dynasty in the early-90's. I'll be fascinated to see how long this Turner lovefest in Charlotte lasts if this offense ends up sputtering out of the gate.
-The departure of star guard Andrew Norwell in free agency delivered a huge blow to this offensive line before they even stepped on the field for their 1st OTA of the season . Now that reigning All-Pro right tackle Daryl Williams is done for the year after suffering a torn MCL during the 1st week of training camp, this line all of a sudden looks it might not even been functional in 2018. Trai Turner has been pretty inconsistent for much of the past 2 seasons, center Ryan Kalil is a brittle shell of his former self that's on the brink of retirement, his brother Matt, who plays left tackle, is a well below-average player who also has a hard time staying healthy and the less said about the collection of jabronis (Taylor Moton, Jeremiah Sirles, Amini Silatolu) that are going to be tasked with taking the spots Norwell and Williams held in 2017, the better. Given the coaching staff's commitment to protecting Cam Newton from the dangers of improvised downfield runs resulting from broken plays whenever possible at this point in his career, increased uncertainty along the offensive line was the last thing they needed.
-I strongly believe that C.J. Anderson was one of the more underrated free agent acquisitions of the entire offseason. The 27-year old's power-based running style makes for an excellent complement to the flashiness of Christian McCaffery and his effectiveness as a starter with the Broncos means you can preserve the freshness of and/or limit the beatings the slight, 2nd-year speedster takes over the course of a 16-game season by giving Anderson a healthy number of touches (10+) per game. If decaying artifact Jonathan Stewart can scoop up 680 YDS and 6 TD's as McCaffery's sidekick, Anderson should be able to finish the year with numbers that are least at slightly better than that.
For the 2nd straight year, the Panthers are heading into the season with a new defensive coordinator after Steve Wilks was hired to be the new head coach of the Cardinals. Fortunately for them, they once again were blessed with the luxury of filling that important vacancy by promoting a longtime assistant from within their organization. Eric Washington has been the defensive line coach since Ron Rivera was hired as HC in 2011 and while he's no lock to be some kind of virtuoso as a shotcaller for the whole defense, the abundance of familiarity he has with the personnel along with the level of talent that's present through the bulk of this defense (Luke Kuechly, Kawann Short, Thomas Davis, Mike Adams, Shaq Thompson, newcomer Dontari Poe) should make the change in power pretty seamless.
Bottom Line:
The Panthers are a talented, hard-nosed squad with a winning pedigree, but their potentially serious issues along the offensive line could be enough to keep them out of the playoffs
-Panthers fans seem to be very excited about the firing of OC Mike Shula. While it might be a case of me romanticizing a team that I'm mostly watching from afar, I was pretty impressed with what Shula was able to do throughout his 4-year tenure as the architect of the Panthers offensive attack. His playcalling is perhaps a little too conservative at times, but he was always to field a group that was at the very least competent, despite not always having a particularly deep or impressive arsenal of talent at his disposal. What's confusing me even more than the joy over Shula's dismissal is how jazzed up they are about Norv F'n Turner taking over. Turner is a primitive-minded retread who hasn't exactly fared super well in either of the OC gigs he's had (Browns in 2013, Vikings from 2014-16) since he was let go as Chargers HC following the 2012 season. Only 1 of the past 4 offenses he's ran have finished in the top half of the league in scoring and even if Greg Olsen bounces back after an injury-plagued 2017 and rookie wideout D.J. Moore is able to make an impact right away, something tells me that this not-so-deep-or-talented group will be able to him break him out of the rut he's been in since he planted the seeds for the Cowboys Triplets-era dynasty in the early-90's. I'll be fascinated to see how long this Turner lovefest in Charlotte lasts if this offense ends up sputtering out of the gate.
-The departure of star guard Andrew Norwell in free agency delivered a huge blow to this offensive line before they even stepped on the field for their 1st OTA of the season . Now that reigning All-Pro right tackle Daryl Williams is done for the year after suffering a torn MCL during the 1st week of training camp, this line all of a sudden looks it might not even been functional in 2018. Trai Turner has been pretty inconsistent for much of the past 2 seasons, center Ryan Kalil is a brittle shell of his former self that's on the brink of retirement, his brother Matt, who plays left tackle, is a well below-average player who also has a hard time staying healthy and the less said about the collection of jabronis (Taylor Moton, Jeremiah Sirles, Amini Silatolu) that are going to be tasked with taking the spots Norwell and Williams held in 2017, the better. Given the coaching staff's commitment to protecting Cam Newton from the dangers of improvised downfield runs resulting from broken plays whenever possible at this point in his career, increased uncertainty along the offensive line was the last thing they needed.
-I strongly believe that C.J. Anderson was one of the more underrated free agent acquisitions of the entire offseason. The 27-year old's power-based running style makes for an excellent complement to the flashiness of Christian McCaffery and his effectiveness as a starter with the Broncos means you can preserve the freshness of and/or limit the beatings the slight, 2nd-year speedster takes over the course of a 16-game season by giving Anderson a healthy number of touches (10+) per game. If decaying artifact Jonathan Stewart can scoop up 680 YDS and 6 TD's as McCaffery's sidekick, Anderson should be able to finish the year with numbers that are least at slightly better than that.
For the 2nd straight year, the Panthers are heading into the season with a new defensive coordinator after Steve Wilks was hired to be the new head coach of the Cardinals. Fortunately for them, they once again were blessed with the luxury of filling that important vacancy by promoting a longtime assistant from within their organization. Eric Washington has been the defensive line coach since Ron Rivera was hired as HC in 2011 and while he's no lock to be some kind of virtuoso as a shotcaller for the whole defense, the abundance of familiarity he has with the personnel along with the level of talent that's present through the bulk of this defense (Luke Kuechly, Kawann Short, Thomas Davis, Mike Adams, Shaq Thompson, newcomer Dontari Poe) should make the change in power pretty seamless.
Bottom Line:
The Panthers are a talented, hard-nosed squad with a winning pedigree, but their potentially serious issues along the offensive line could be enough to keep them out of the playoffs
New Orleans Saints
2017 Record: 11-5 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (12th season)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (12th season)
Notable Additions: CB Patrick Robinson, ILB Demario Davis, WR Cameron Meredith
Notable Departures: WR Willie Snead, S Kenny Vaccaro, TE Coby Fleener
-I'm completely indifferent on the Saints, but that didn't stop me from getting irrationally confused and pissed off by the Minneapolis Miracle. Getting eliminated from a playoffs on a play that can only be attributed as a tremendous stroke of luck for their opponent is about the worst possible break you can have in the NFL. As the 2015 Seahawks, 2017 Falcons and countless others have proved over the years, tough losses like that can absolutely bleed into the following season. Hell, Alvin Kamara just went off about it at length in his Bleacher Report profile that was published earlier this month. Even with Kamara's expletive-filled outburst, I think the Saints have enough dynamic talent on both sides of the ball and experienced, level-headed individuals on their roster to not let that crushing Divisional Round defeat from 2017 have a significant effect on their play in 2018.
-Speaking of Kamara, his electric, dual-threat playmaking ability made him a force of nature in the pro's right away. Now the biggest challenge for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year will be sustaining that success moving forward. With running mate Mark Ingram suspended for the 4 games of the year for "illegally" taking Adderall, his ability to replicate his success will be tested right away. As versatile and elusive as Kamara is, he isn't exactly built to handle the workload of your typical workhorse back . Plus with the guarantee of Kamara securing the vast majority of the backfield touches while Ingram is away from the team, there's a predictability factor that will allow opposing defenses to make stopping him the focal point of their gameplan. Even when Ingram returns to the fold in early October, expecting Kamara to match or exceed the absurd YDS per touch (8.1 on 201 touches) he averaged he a year ago would be unfair and unrealistic. All this cynicism is basically a drawn-out way of saying that despite his immense talent and a near-guarantee that he'll get more touches, there's a very good chance that Kamara's numbers will take a hit in 2018.
-The starting receiver slot alongside budding star Michael Thomas is wide open and given Ted Ginn's well-known limitations as a receiver, Cameron Meredith has a golden opportunity to take it. Prior to missing all of 2017 with a torn ACL, the 25-year old, ex-Bears wideout turned some heads around the league by putting together a nice 2016 campaign (66 REC, 888 YDS, 4 TD) with a legit carousel of QB's (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley) throwing him the ball. Could those numbers be attributed to him being the only member of the receiving corps to appear in all 16 games that year? Possibly. Is it alarming that Bears didn't match the incredibly modest offer sheet the Saints signed him to (2 year/$9 million/$4.5 mil guaranteed)? Absolutely. Regardless of these potential red flags, he's still a fairly intriguing, low-risk/high-reward player that could sneak up on people and gain a semi-prominent role on this already stacked offense.
-The Saints fielding a pretty good defense (10th in points against, 17th in total yards allowed, tied for 7th in sacks, tied for 9th in takeaways) was honestly one of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season. Blown coverages and a staggering inability to slow down the running game has been such a common theme of Sean Payton's post-Super Bowl victory years in New Orleans that its absence was almost surreal. Call me naïve given their inability to sustain anything that even resembles consistent productivity on this side of the ball, but I actually think this D is going to be even better in 2018. They addressed a couple of glaring problem areas in free agency (slot corner, inside linebacker) with the additions of unheralded veterans Patrick Robinson and Demario Davis-who are both coming off career years, placing a high-ceiling rookie like Marcus Davenport alongside established wrecking ball Cameron Jordan at defensive end could elevate this already solid pass-rush to another level and I believe that they're young defensive back corps led by Ken Crawley, Marcus Williams and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore is absolutely legit. Only widespread regression or the return of DC Dennis Allen's pre-2017 stoogery could get in the way of stunting this group's immense potential.
Bottom Line:
If they can keep their heads screwed on and the improvement their defense showed last season wasn't a fluke, the Saints should be in contention for their 2nd straight division title and subsequent deep playoff run.
-I'm completely indifferent on the Saints, but that didn't stop me from getting irrationally confused and pissed off by the Minneapolis Miracle. Getting eliminated from a playoffs on a play that can only be attributed as a tremendous stroke of luck for their opponent is about the worst possible break you can have in the NFL. As the 2015 Seahawks, 2017 Falcons and countless others have proved over the years, tough losses like that can absolutely bleed into the following season. Hell, Alvin Kamara just went off about it at length in his Bleacher Report profile that was published earlier this month. Even with Kamara's expletive-filled outburst, I think the Saints have enough dynamic talent on both sides of the ball and experienced, level-headed individuals on their roster to not let that crushing Divisional Round defeat from 2017 have a significant effect on their play in 2018.
-Speaking of Kamara, his electric, dual-threat playmaking ability made him a force of nature in the pro's right away. Now the biggest challenge for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year will be sustaining that success moving forward. With running mate Mark Ingram suspended for the 4 games of the year for "illegally" taking Adderall, his ability to replicate his success will be tested right away. As versatile and elusive as Kamara is, he isn't exactly built to handle the workload of your typical workhorse back . Plus with the guarantee of Kamara securing the vast majority of the backfield touches while Ingram is away from the team, there's a predictability factor that will allow opposing defenses to make stopping him the focal point of their gameplan. Even when Ingram returns to the fold in early October, expecting Kamara to match or exceed the absurd YDS per touch (8.1 on 201 touches) he averaged he a year ago would be unfair and unrealistic. All this cynicism is basically a drawn-out way of saying that despite his immense talent and a near-guarantee that he'll get more touches, there's a very good chance that Kamara's numbers will take a hit in 2018.
-The starting receiver slot alongside budding star Michael Thomas is wide open and given Ted Ginn's well-known limitations as a receiver, Cameron Meredith has a golden opportunity to take it. Prior to missing all of 2017 with a torn ACL, the 25-year old, ex-Bears wideout turned some heads around the league by putting together a nice 2016 campaign (66 REC, 888 YDS, 4 TD) with a legit carousel of QB's (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley) throwing him the ball. Could those numbers be attributed to him being the only member of the receiving corps to appear in all 16 games that year? Possibly. Is it alarming that Bears didn't match the incredibly modest offer sheet the Saints signed him to (2 year/$9 million/$4.5 mil guaranteed)? Absolutely. Regardless of these potential red flags, he's still a fairly intriguing, low-risk/high-reward player that could sneak up on people and gain a semi-prominent role on this already stacked offense.
-The Saints fielding a pretty good defense (10th in points against, 17th in total yards allowed, tied for 7th in sacks, tied for 9th in takeaways) was honestly one of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season. Blown coverages and a staggering inability to slow down the running game has been such a common theme of Sean Payton's post-Super Bowl victory years in New Orleans that its absence was almost surreal. Call me naïve given their inability to sustain anything that even resembles consistent productivity on this side of the ball, but I actually think this D is going to be even better in 2018. They addressed a couple of glaring problem areas in free agency (slot corner, inside linebacker) with the additions of unheralded veterans Patrick Robinson and Demario Davis-who are both coming off career years, placing a high-ceiling rookie like Marcus Davenport alongside established wrecking ball Cameron Jordan at defensive end could elevate this already solid pass-rush to another level and I believe that they're young defensive back corps led by Ken Crawley, Marcus Williams and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore is absolutely legit. Only widespread regression or the return of DC Dennis Allen's pre-2017 stoogery could get in the way of stunting this group's immense potential.
Bottom Line:
If they can keep their heads screwed on and the improvement their defense showed last season wasn't a fluke, the Saints should be in contention for their 2nd straight division title and subsequent deep playoff run.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (3rd season)
Notable Additions: DE Jason Pierre-Paul, C Ryan Jensen, DE Vinny Curry
Notable Departures: RB Doug Martin, DT Chris Baker, G J.R. Sweezy
-Outside of Hue Jackson, no coach stands a greater chance of being fired mid-season than Dirk Koetter. Almost all the good will he built up from his inaugural 9-7 campaign in 2016 quickly vanished following a disastrous 2017 season where the team squandered its lofty preseason expectations thanks to questionable offensive playcalling, largely horrific defensive play and down years from a number of their most valuable players (Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Doug Martin). How he deals with the adversity of Winston's 3-game suspension and figuring out how the touches will be distributed in their questionable running committee (Jaquizz Rodgers, rookie Ronald Jones and current projected "starter" Peyton Barber) could end up playing a huge factor in deciding how long Koetter sticks around the good ol' Pirate Ship.
-Even if you set aside the necessary morality questions that come with the decision of making a man who has a checkered history of both alleged (sexual assault) and admitted (groping an Uber driver without consent) predatory sexual behavior the face of your franchise for the next decade, committing to Winston long-term would be a massive mistake. The 24-year old's raw statistics are far from awful (4,000+ yards and 20+ TD's in 2 of his 3 seasons in the league), but his accuracy woes, habit of turning the ball over in key situations and lengthy struggles against quality competition have to call his ability to be a reliable franchise quarterback into question. While his 3-game suspension stemming from the aforementioned Uber groping will likely table long-term extensions for the rest of the season, a strong 2018 from Winston would force the front office to make a decision on his future with the franchise sooner than they'd probably like to.
-Offensive line play has been a massive crutch for this team over the past several years and with a pair of notorious, turnover prone QB's currently topping the depth chart (Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick) and weak rushing attack trying to establish some momentum after a very 2017 season where they ran for the 5th-least yards in the league, it's imperative that they take some steps forward in 2018. GM Jason Licht understood something needed to be done to help get this line out of their extended funk and did his part by cutting ties with free agent bust J.R. Sweezy, and signing center free agent Ryan Jensen to a lucrative deal (4 years/$42 million/$22 mil guaranteed) in free agency. However, I don't know if these moves will be enough to right the ship. Demar Dotson and Ali Marpet are reliable starters that have been downright dominant at times, but the rest of the group offers up varying degrees of concern. Donovan Smith has failed to materialize into a good, let alone passable left tackle since he was selected 34th overall back in 2015, Caleb Benenoch is a converted tackle who has yet to start a regular season game at guard over the course of 3 year career so far and as great he was with the Ravens last season, Jensen has only 1 year of full-time starting experience under his belt and absolutely fits the profile of a guy who could immediately flame out after signing a big contract. Competent o-line play is essential for an offense that's trying to get back on track and I just don't have any level of confidence that this group is strong or consistent enough as a whole to get the job done.
-No amount of plays made by their respected veteran stars (Lavonte David, Brent Grimes, Gerald McCoy) could prevent this defense from being comically bad last season. They surrendered the most yards in the league (dead last against the pass, 23rd against the run), registered the least sacks (22) and thanks to a surprisingly strong takeaway total (26, tied for 7th in the league), fared slightly better in the scoring defense category (23.9 PPG, tied for 22nd in the league). How they're going to fare in 2018 is a serious coin flip. A slew of new additions (Beau Allen, Vinny Curry, Mitch Unrein, rookie Vita Vea and most notably, former Giants dynamo Jason Pierre-Paul) along the defensive line should help improver their run defense and pass rush, but a largely unchanged secondary (all 4 starters are returning and rookie corner Carlton Davis is the only new addition that appears set to receive any notable amount of playing time) will likely limit how many steps forward this group takes this season. The NFC South is not a fun division to have a poor defense in and it's going to take a series of miracles for the Bucs to not get routinely lit up again in 2018.
Bottom Line:
Much of the Bucs history has been defined by underachieving and with Koetter still steering the ship, I expect that not-so-proud tradition to remain in tact for 2018.
-Outside of Hue Jackson, no coach stands a greater chance of being fired mid-season than Dirk Koetter. Almost all the good will he built up from his inaugural 9-7 campaign in 2016 quickly vanished following a disastrous 2017 season where the team squandered its lofty preseason expectations thanks to questionable offensive playcalling, largely horrific defensive play and down years from a number of their most valuable players (Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Doug Martin). How he deals with the adversity of Winston's 3-game suspension and figuring out how the touches will be distributed in their questionable running committee (Jaquizz Rodgers, rookie Ronald Jones and current projected "starter" Peyton Barber) could end up playing a huge factor in deciding how long Koetter sticks around the good ol' Pirate Ship.
-Even if you set aside the necessary morality questions that come with the decision of making a man who has a checkered history of both alleged (sexual assault) and admitted (groping an Uber driver without consent) predatory sexual behavior the face of your franchise for the next decade, committing to Winston long-term would be a massive mistake. The 24-year old's raw statistics are far from awful (4,000+ yards and 20+ TD's in 2 of his 3 seasons in the league), but his accuracy woes, habit of turning the ball over in key situations and lengthy struggles against quality competition have to call his ability to be a reliable franchise quarterback into question. While his 3-game suspension stemming from the aforementioned Uber groping will likely table long-term extensions for the rest of the season, a strong 2018 from Winston would force the front office to make a decision on his future with the franchise sooner than they'd probably like to.
-Offensive line play has been a massive crutch for this team over the past several years and with a pair of notorious, turnover prone QB's currently topping the depth chart (Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick) and weak rushing attack trying to establish some momentum after a very 2017 season where they ran for the 5th-least yards in the league, it's imperative that they take some steps forward in 2018. GM Jason Licht understood something needed to be done to help get this line out of their extended funk and did his part by cutting ties with free agent bust J.R. Sweezy, and signing center free agent Ryan Jensen to a lucrative deal (4 years/$42 million/$22 mil guaranteed) in free agency. However, I don't know if these moves will be enough to right the ship. Demar Dotson and Ali Marpet are reliable starters that have been downright dominant at times, but the rest of the group offers up varying degrees of concern. Donovan Smith has failed to materialize into a good, let alone passable left tackle since he was selected 34th overall back in 2015, Caleb Benenoch is a converted tackle who has yet to start a regular season game at guard over the course of 3 year career so far and as great he was with the Ravens last season, Jensen has only 1 year of full-time starting experience under his belt and absolutely fits the profile of a guy who could immediately flame out after signing a big contract. Competent o-line play is essential for an offense that's trying to get back on track and I just don't have any level of confidence that this group is strong or consistent enough as a whole to get the job done.
-No amount of plays made by their respected veteran stars (Lavonte David, Brent Grimes, Gerald McCoy) could prevent this defense from being comically bad last season. They surrendered the most yards in the league (dead last against the pass, 23rd against the run), registered the least sacks (22) and thanks to a surprisingly strong takeaway total (26, tied for 7th in the league), fared slightly better in the scoring defense category (23.9 PPG, tied for 22nd in the league). How they're going to fare in 2018 is a serious coin flip. A slew of new additions (Beau Allen, Vinny Curry, Mitch Unrein, rookie Vita Vea and most notably, former Giants dynamo Jason Pierre-Paul) along the defensive line should help improver their run defense and pass rush, but a largely unchanged secondary (all 4 starters are returning and rookie corner Carlton Davis is the only new addition that appears set to receive any notable amount of playing time) will likely limit how many steps forward this group takes this season. The NFC South is not a fun division to have a poor defense in and it's going to take a series of miracles for the Bucs to not get routinely lit up again in 2018.
Bottom Line:
Much of the Bucs history has been defined by underachieving and with Koetter still steering the ship, I expect that not-so-proud tradition to remain in tact for 2018.
Projected Standings:
1.New Orleans Saints (11-5)
2.Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
3.Carolina Panthers (8-8)
4.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
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