Houston Texans
2018 Record: 4-12 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (5th season)
Notable Additions: S Tyrann Mathieu, CB Aaron Colvin, G Zach Fulton
Notable Departures: ILB Brian Cushing, S Marcus Gilchrist, TE C.J. Fiedorowicz (retired)
-Despite being the 3rd QB drafted, Deshaun Watson ended up being the absolute darling of the 2017 QB class. He surpassed pretty much every reasonable expectation placed upon him by establishing himself as a big time playmaker that stifled defenses with his big arm and elusive running ability pretty much right away. Sadly for the Texans, Watson's dream season came to a sudden tragic end when he tore his ACL during a non-contract drill less than a week after setting a record for most TD's thrown by a rookie QB in a single month (16). Now a fully healthy Watson will look to pick back up where he left off during his 6 start run that thrust him into the forefront of the best young QB conversation. Considering how far they fell in his absence (they lost 7 of their last 8 games), the Texans 1000% need Watson to replicate the game-breaking, dual-threat success he displayed a year ago if they want to return to the playoffs in 2018. Being asked to carry a team pretty much squarely on your shoulders is a lot for guy whose played less than a half of season of professional football, especially since he's coming off an injury and his ability to handle this challenge will go long a way in answering the burning question of whether or not Watson was a flash-in-the-pan sensation or the true savior for an organization that hasn't had a truly great QB in its 17-year existence.
-If you take a look at the Pro Football Focus analytics, the 2017 Texans offensive line graded out as a bottom 5 line for the PAST 10 YEARS. Because some teams refuse to learn from their mistakes, 3 of the 5 guys (left tackle Julie'n Davenport, center Nick Martin, right guard Senio Kelemete) responsible for this horrendous performance are returning to their staring spots. Newly-hired GM Brian Gaine's idea of an improvement was swamping out draft bust Xavier Su'a-Filo for Zach Fulton, who was well below average as the Chiefs plug-and-play 6th offensive lineman for the past 4 seasons, at the left guard. The sad part is this move seems like its going to be legitimate upgrade. The lone reason for optimism upfront comes in the form of rookie right tackle Mathais Rankin. While he has a reputation for getting beat by powerful edge rushers in pass-protection, Rankin is a long, athletic tackle with a strong track record as a run-blocker. Watson's mobility will certainly help cover up some of the stink, but as the Seahawks have proved for the bulk of Russell Wilson's tenure with the team, horrific line play can prevent a talented offense from reaching its true potential.
-While injuries to prominent members of their defensive front early in the season (Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt) and the subsequent negative effect their absence had on the pass-rush certainly didn't help matters, the Texans secondary was an absolute disgrace last season. Kevin Johnson, who put together his worst season as a pro, was a complete liability in coverage, Jonathan Joseph finally started to show his age and the safeties not named Marcus Gilchrist were all pretty terrible. Unlike their offensive line, Cain decided to invest in some assets by signing Aaron Colvin and Tyrann Mathieau in free agency, and using their top draft pick on Stanford product Justin Reid. While the upside is there with all of these guys, their presence might not be enough to significantly improve this unit that ranked 24th against the pass a year ago. Colvin was a merely decent slot corner while he was with the Jaguars, Mathieau is a massive injury risk whose play has slipped a bit over the past couple of seasons and Reid's aggressive, downhill playing style could led to a ton of missed tackles at the next level. Pair these secondary issues with the very real possibility that back-to-back major injuries has effectively limited the explosiveness that made J.J. Watt such a destructive, unguardable force on the defensive line to and you have a previously feared defense that appears to be in the midst of a rapid decline.
-As a fantasy football nerd who has a particular affinity for the receiver position, nothing toys with my heart quite like a boom-or-bust option. Fantasy players opinions on guys like Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace and Kenny Stills shift between over-the-top praise and venomous hatred so often that they should all legally change their names to Dow Jones. Texans starter Will Fuller could very well be the king of this particularly frustrating portion of the WR population. If you're a cynic, you'll point to the fact that the Notre Dame product has displayed shaky hands, inconsistent play and a gift for suffering hamstring strains at inopportune times during his first 2 seasons in the league. If you have a sunnier disposition, you'll cite his top-end speed and 7 TD run while Watson was under center last season as reason why he'll breakout in 2018. As unbelievable as DeAndre Hopkins is, having a running mate that's a true threat as a playmaker could help establish this offense as a true juggernaut, but relying on Fuller to be that guy is as risky of a bet as you can possibly make in the league.
Bottom Line:
I wish I had some more thoughtful analysis, but the Texans are the hardest team to gauge in the AFC right now. A division win or last finish would sincerely garner the same stoic, completely unsurprised reaction from me.
-Despite being the 3rd QB drafted, Deshaun Watson ended up being the absolute darling of the 2017 QB class. He surpassed pretty much every reasonable expectation placed upon him by establishing himself as a big time playmaker that stifled defenses with his big arm and elusive running ability pretty much right away. Sadly for the Texans, Watson's dream season came to a sudden tragic end when he tore his ACL during a non-contract drill less than a week after setting a record for most TD's thrown by a rookie QB in a single month (16). Now a fully healthy Watson will look to pick back up where he left off during his 6 start run that thrust him into the forefront of the best young QB conversation. Considering how far they fell in his absence (they lost 7 of their last 8 games), the Texans 1000% need Watson to replicate the game-breaking, dual-threat success he displayed a year ago if they want to return to the playoffs in 2018. Being asked to carry a team pretty much squarely on your shoulders is a lot for guy whose played less than a half of season of professional football, especially since he's coming off an injury and his ability to handle this challenge will go long a way in answering the burning question of whether or not Watson was a flash-in-the-pan sensation or the true savior for an organization that hasn't had a truly great QB in its 17-year existence.
-If you take a look at the Pro Football Focus analytics, the 2017 Texans offensive line graded out as a bottom 5 line for the PAST 10 YEARS. Because some teams refuse to learn from their mistakes, 3 of the 5 guys (left tackle Julie'n Davenport, center Nick Martin, right guard Senio Kelemete) responsible for this horrendous performance are returning to their staring spots. Newly-hired GM Brian Gaine's idea of an improvement was swamping out draft bust Xavier Su'a-Filo for Zach Fulton, who was well below average as the Chiefs plug-and-play 6th offensive lineman for the past 4 seasons, at the left guard. The sad part is this move seems like its going to be legitimate upgrade. The lone reason for optimism upfront comes in the form of rookie right tackle Mathais Rankin. While he has a reputation for getting beat by powerful edge rushers in pass-protection, Rankin is a long, athletic tackle with a strong track record as a run-blocker. Watson's mobility will certainly help cover up some of the stink, but as the Seahawks have proved for the bulk of Russell Wilson's tenure with the team, horrific line play can prevent a talented offense from reaching its true potential.
-While injuries to prominent members of their defensive front early in the season (Whitney Mercilus, J.J. Watt) and the subsequent negative effect their absence had on the pass-rush certainly didn't help matters, the Texans secondary was an absolute disgrace last season. Kevin Johnson, who put together his worst season as a pro, was a complete liability in coverage, Jonathan Joseph finally started to show his age and the safeties not named Marcus Gilchrist were all pretty terrible. Unlike their offensive line, Cain decided to invest in some assets by signing Aaron Colvin and Tyrann Mathieau in free agency, and using their top draft pick on Stanford product Justin Reid. While the upside is there with all of these guys, their presence might not be enough to significantly improve this unit that ranked 24th against the pass a year ago. Colvin was a merely decent slot corner while he was with the Jaguars, Mathieau is a massive injury risk whose play has slipped a bit over the past couple of seasons and Reid's aggressive, downhill playing style could led to a ton of missed tackles at the next level. Pair these secondary issues with the very real possibility that back-to-back major injuries has effectively limited the explosiveness that made J.J. Watt such a destructive, unguardable force on the defensive line to and you have a previously feared defense that appears to be in the midst of a rapid decline.
-As a fantasy football nerd who has a particular affinity for the receiver position, nothing toys with my heart quite like a boom-or-bust option. Fantasy players opinions on guys like Torrey Smith, Mike Wallace and Kenny Stills shift between over-the-top praise and venomous hatred so often that they should all legally change their names to Dow Jones. Texans starter Will Fuller could very well be the king of this particularly frustrating portion of the WR population. If you're a cynic, you'll point to the fact that the Notre Dame product has displayed shaky hands, inconsistent play and a gift for suffering hamstring strains at inopportune times during his first 2 seasons in the league. If you have a sunnier disposition, you'll cite his top-end speed and 7 TD run while Watson was under center last season as reason why he'll breakout in 2018. As unbelievable as DeAndre Hopkins is, having a running mate that's a true threat as a playmaker could help establish this offense as a true juggernaut, but relying on Fuller to be that guy is as risky of a bet as you can possibly make in the league.
Bottom Line:
I wish I had some more thoughtful analysis, but the Texans are the hardest team to gauge in the AFC right now. A division win or last finish would sincerely garner the same stoic, completely unsurprised reaction from me.
Indianapolis Colts
2018 Record: 4-12 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Frank Reich (1st season)
Notable Additions: G Matt Slauson, TE Eric Ebron, T Austin Howard
Notable Departures: CB Rashaan Melvin, WR Donte Moncrief, RB Frank Gore
-How Andrew Luck fares in his long-awaited return from shoulder surgery is the only Colts narrative that really matters this season. As meaningless as the preseason is, Luck's sharp performance in the opener (6/9, 64 YDS) last Thursday should at least help put to rest some of the palpable unease that has built up within this organization and fanbase during his 21-month stint away from football. The road back to reestablishing himself as one of the game's premier QB's remains incredibly daunting, but even a small glimmer of hope like this prior to the start of the season make this team's 2018 forecast look a whole lot sunnier.
-An obstacle in Luck's comeback that is in no way his fault is the lack of continuity GM Chris Ballard has established at the receiver position. Sure he has an excellent rapport longtime top receiver T.Y.Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle, but asking a guy to get acquainted with a largely overhauled receiving corps while he's in the midst of trying to readjust to the nuanced complexities of playing quarterback after an extended absence just seems like a bad idea. In addition to the lack of familiarity these guys have with Luck, these new WR's/TE's just aren't very good. Eric Ebron has been consistently mediocre since he was drafted in 2014 and while Donte Moncrief wasn't exactly a stud, Chester Rodgers or newcomer Ryan Grant don't seem like they're qualified to fill his role as a legit redzone threat. This lack of depth and talent could very well prove to be irrelevant if #12 comes back firing on all cylinders, but this potential personnel issue has remained strangely under-the-radar as the season approaches.
-Josh McDaniels last-minute decision to refuse the Colts HC gig has dominated the narrative around this team to the point where I don't think a lot of people outside of Indy even know who ended up taking over for Chuck Pagano. This anonymity could be a blessing or a curse for Frank Reich, the long-time assistant who became an intriguing HC candidate after playing a role in the birth of the Eagles lethal offense over the past couple of seasons. In the wake of the McDaniels debacle, a situation where the locker room is highly motivated to buy into his philosophy to change the stigma that's surrounded this organization since the end of the Manning era or choose to ignore him because he was handed the job at the last minute both seem completely conceivable. I expect the front office to have a super short leash with him and if shit goes really south, he'll more than likely be out of the building by New Year's.
-For the first time since the Jeff Saturday/Ryan Diem/Ryan Lilja-era, there's reason for optimism when looking at the Colts offensive line. Center Ryan Kelly has played pretty well when healthy, new additions Austin Howard (right tackle) and Matt Slauson (right guard) are both respectable players with loads of starting experience, rookie left guard Quenton Nelson has the strength, footwork and nastiness to be a force on the interior line right away and this line's longtime ray of light in the darkness Anthony Castonzo is a borderline elite left tackle whose in the middle of his prime. It's absolutely imperative that this group keeps Luck upright while he is on the comeback trail and even the possibility of him not being under siege at all times is a welcome reprieve from the norm for this team.
-Matt Eberflus' inaugural season as an NFL defensive coordinator is going to be quite the challenge. With a shaky linebacking corps anchored by journeyman vets like Antonio Morrison and Najee Goode, a non-existent pass-rush and an unreliable corner group that just lost its only true asset (Rashaan Melvin) in free agency, the longtime Cowboys assistant is going to have to get super creative if he wants to build a unit that's even semi-passable, let alone competent. A pair of promising young safeties (Malik Hooker, T.J. Green) and the presence of a few respectable vets (John Simon, Jabbal Sheard, Al Woods) in his defensive line rotation is likely going to be the only thing that keeps him sane as he goes through the inevitable growing pains of overhauling a defense that is very short on talent and depth.
Bottom Line:
Even if Luck ends up seamlessly returning to form, the Colts don't seem to have enough talent to make a significant impact this season.
-An obstacle in Luck's comeback that is in no way his fault is the lack of continuity GM Chris Ballard has established at the receiver position. Sure he has an excellent rapport longtime top receiver T.Y.Hilton and tight end Jack Doyle, but asking a guy to get acquainted with a largely overhauled receiving corps while he's in the midst of trying to readjust to the nuanced complexities of playing quarterback after an extended absence just seems like a bad idea. In addition to the lack of familiarity these guys have with Luck, these new WR's/TE's just aren't very good. Eric Ebron has been consistently mediocre since he was drafted in 2014 and while Donte Moncrief wasn't exactly a stud, Chester Rodgers or newcomer Ryan Grant don't seem like they're qualified to fill his role as a legit redzone threat. This lack of depth and talent could very well prove to be irrelevant if #12 comes back firing on all cylinders, but this potential personnel issue has remained strangely under-the-radar as the season approaches.
-Josh McDaniels last-minute decision to refuse the Colts HC gig has dominated the narrative around this team to the point where I don't think a lot of people outside of Indy even know who ended up taking over for Chuck Pagano. This anonymity could be a blessing or a curse for Frank Reich, the long-time assistant who became an intriguing HC candidate after playing a role in the birth of the Eagles lethal offense over the past couple of seasons. In the wake of the McDaniels debacle, a situation where the locker room is highly motivated to buy into his philosophy to change the stigma that's surrounded this organization since the end of the Manning era or choose to ignore him because he was handed the job at the last minute both seem completely conceivable. I expect the front office to have a super short leash with him and if shit goes really south, he'll more than likely be out of the building by New Year's.
-For the first time since the Jeff Saturday/Ryan Diem/Ryan Lilja-era, there's reason for optimism when looking at the Colts offensive line. Center Ryan Kelly has played pretty well when healthy, new additions Austin Howard (right tackle) and Matt Slauson (right guard) are both respectable players with loads of starting experience, rookie left guard Quenton Nelson has the strength, footwork and nastiness to be a force on the interior line right away and this line's longtime ray of light in the darkness Anthony Castonzo is a borderline elite left tackle whose in the middle of his prime. It's absolutely imperative that this group keeps Luck upright while he is on the comeback trail and even the possibility of him not being under siege at all times is a welcome reprieve from the norm for this team.
-Matt Eberflus' inaugural season as an NFL defensive coordinator is going to be quite the challenge. With a shaky linebacking corps anchored by journeyman vets like Antonio Morrison and Najee Goode, a non-existent pass-rush and an unreliable corner group that just lost its only true asset (Rashaan Melvin) in free agency, the longtime Cowboys assistant is going to have to get super creative if he wants to build a unit that's even semi-passable, let alone competent. A pair of promising young safeties (Malik Hooker, T.J. Green) and the presence of a few respectable vets (John Simon, Jabbal Sheard, Al Woods) in his defensive line rotation is likely going to be the only thing that keeps him sane as he goes through the inevitable growing pains of overhauling a defense that is very short on talent and depth.
Bottom Line:
Even if Luck ends up seamlessly returning to form, the Colts don't seem to have enough talent to make a significant impact this season.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2018 Record: 11-5 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (2nd season)
Notable Additions: G Andrew Norwell, WR Donte Moncrief, TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins
Notable Departures: WR Allen Robinson, WR Allen Hurns, ILB Paul Pouslunzy (retired)
-The emergence of narratives questioning an upstart team ability to sustain success following an impressive season is an inevitable and easily justifiable part of the football world. I don't expect the Jaguars to be one of the teams that fizzles out after a surprisingly successful season. While I'll grant their detractors that they're a largely young team with big personalities that benefited from having a pretty soft schedule last season, their ballsy performances in both of their road playoff games (at Pittsburgh and New England) last season indicates to me that this team isn't intimidated by expectations or big moments. That fearlessness paired with their dedication to the defensive side of the football, a coach in Doug Marrone that seems like he knows what he's doing and the presence of numerous strong veteran leaders (Calias Campbell, Barry Church, Telvin Smith, Malik Jackson) that should help keep them grounded makes long-term success seems very attainable in Jacksonville.
-2017 was a huge season in the development of Blake Bortles. After earning himself a reputation as one of the league's most erratic, turnover-prone quarterbacks over the first 3 years of his career, the 26-year old came into his own last season by displaying vastly improved decisionmaking (exemplified by his career-low 13 INT's) and poise under pressure. The next hurdle Bortles needs to clear in 2018 will be applying that improved decisionmaking to downfield throws without reverting to his terrible old habit of mindlessly chucking passes into crowds of opposing defenders 20+ yards away. Bortles' arm is too valuable of a weapon to not utilize and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett needs to work with him to refine it then eventually trust him to use it in big spots to help make this offense more versatile. This addition to his game isn't likely to turn him into a Hall-of-Famer overnight, but it would absolutely help him evolve past the "game manager" tag that's currently being applied to him.
-If you caught any Jaguars games last season, you probably noticed that they had a hard time scoring TD's when Leonard Fournette was getting stuffed in the redzone. Top receivers Marqise Lee and Keelan Cole both put together fine seasons (702 and 748 YDS respectively), but neither of them are physical enough to consistently create space and make contested catches in the endzone. The front office addressed this matter extensively during the offseason by adding Donte Moncrief, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and rookie D.J. Chark to the fold. While Chark has the top-end speed that could allow him to turn into something more at the next level, these guys are all non-flashy, big-bodied receivers who aren't afraid to get into all-out wars with defenders and have a pretty strong track record of reeling-in TD's. Committing this many capital to what should technically be secondary redzone options might not have the been best asset-managing move ever concocted by the Dave Caldwell/Tom Coughlin braintrust, but it should end up paying dividends for this offense.
-As expected, Fournette was the focal point of this offense last season. Despite missing 3 games with an ankle injury, he still managed to touch the ball a whopping 304 times during his rookie season. The front office further affirmed their commitment to the 23-year old running back by handing Andrew Norwell the heftiest contract in the history of the guard position (5 years/$66.5 million/$30 mil guaranteed). Norwell has been one of the most well-rounded, consistently dominant guards in the league over the past few seasons and adding him to a line that displayed considerable improvement a year ago could help this unit flirt with greatness this year. Plus putting a reportedly fully healthy Fournette behind an improved offensive line could allow him to easily spit in the face of the dreaded sophomore slump that tends to plague this position.
Bottom Line:
While I'm not ready to anoint them the new kings of the AFC quite yet, I believe the Jags moxie, intelligence and defensive talent will be enough to make them legit contenders for the foreseeable future.
-The emergence of narratives questioning an upstart team ability to sustain success following an impressive season is an inevitable and easily justifiable part of the football world. I don't expect the Jaguars to be one of the teams that fizzles out after a surprisingly successful season. While I'll grant their detractors that they're a largely young team with big personalities that benefited from having a pretty soft schedule last season, their ballsy performances in both of their road playoff games (at Pittsburgh and New England) last season indicates to me that this team isn't intimidated by expectations or big moments. That fearlessness paired with their dedication to the defensive side of the football, a coach in Doug Marrone that seems like he knows what he's doing and the presence of numerous strong veteran leaders (Calias Campbell, Barry Church, Telvin Smith, Malik Jackson) that should help keep them grounded makes long-term success seems very attainable in Jacksonville.
-2017 was a huge season in the development of Blake Bortles. After earning himself a reputation as one of the league's most erratic, turnover-prone quarterbacks over the first 3 years of his career, the 26-year old came into his own last season by displaying vastly improved decisionmaking (exemplified by his career-low 13 INT's) and poise under pressure. The next hurdle Bortles needs to clear in 2018 will be applying that improved decisionmaking to downfield throws without reverting to his terrible old habit of mindlessly chucking passes into crowds of opposing defenders 20+ yards away. Bortles' arm is too valuable of a weapon to not utilize and offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett needs to work with him to refine it then eventually trust him to use it in big spots to help make this offense more versatile. This addition to his game isn't likely to turn him into a Hall-of-Famer overnight, but it would absolutely help him evolve past the "game manager" tag that's currently being applied to him.
-If you caught any Jaguars games last season, you probably noticed that they had a hard time scoring TD's when Leonard Fournette was getting stuffed in the redzone. Top receivers Marqise Lee and Keelan Cole both put together fine seasons (702 and 748 YDS respectively), but neither of them are physical enough to consistently create space and make contested catches in the endzone. The front office addressed this matter extensively during the offseason by adding Donte Moncrief, Austin Seferian-Jenkins and rookie D.J. Chark to the fold. While Chark has the top-end speed that could allow him to turn into something more at the next level, these guys are all non-flashy, big-bodied receivers who aren't afraid to get into all-out wars with defenders and have a pretty strong track record of reeling-in TD's. Committing this many capital to what should technically be secondary redzone options might not have the been best asset-managing move ever concocted by the Dave Caldwell/Tom Coughlin braintrust, but it should end up paying dividends for this offense.
-As expected, Fournette was the focal point of this offense last season. Despite missing 3 games with an ankle injury, he still managed to touch the ball a whopping 304 times during his rookie season. The front office further affirmed their commitment to the 23-year old running back by handing Andrew Norwell the heftiest contract in the history of the guard position (5 years/$66.5 million/$30 mil guaranteed). Norwell has been one of the most well-rounded, consistently dominant guards in the league over the past few seasons and adding him to a line that displayed considerable improvement a year ago could help this unit flirt with greatness this year. Plus putting a reportedly fully healthy Fournette behind an improved offensive line could allow him to easily spit in the face of the dreaded sophomore slump that tends to plague this position.
Bottom Line:
While I'm not ready to anoint them the new kings of the AFC quite yet, I believe the Jags moxie, intelligence and defensive talent will be enough to make them legit contenders for the foreseeable future.
Tennessee Titans
2018 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (1st season)
Notable Additions: CB Malcolm Butler, RB Dion Lewis, DT Bennie Logan
Notable Departures: RB DeMarco Murray (retired), ILB Avery Williamson, S Da'Norris Searcy
-Many tears were shed in the Greater Nashville-area when Mike Mularkey was fired after the Titans blowout loss against the Patriots. As much as I clowned on the architect of the Exotic Smashmouth offense since he was promoted to head coach in 2016, firing him at the end of a season where he made the playoffs and led the team to an improbable comeback win against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round was an unwarranted, coldblooded move by GM Jon Robinson. Making the abrupt head coaching change even more questionable was the decision to replace Mularkey with someone like Mike Vrabel. As poor as his track record was prior to his tenure with the Titans, at least Mularkey had multiple head coaching stints and over 20 years of experience as an assistant on his resume before he landed the gig. Vrabel is a retired player whose only been coaching in the NFL for a hot minute (4 seasons) who oversaw a well below average albeit somewhat banged-up defense during his 1 season as a coordinator with the Texans. Throw in the fact that he's known for being a temperamental hardass and you have an ideal formula for a bust of a head coach hire. I'll give him credit for bringing in some talented assistants to help him out (Matt LaFluer, Dean Pees), but that isn't enough to erase the heavy skepticism I have towards Vrabel's coaching prowess and leadership skills.
-Robinson's infatuation with all things Patriots also carried over to his free-agent signings. After inking Logan Ryan to a 4-year deal last offseason, he doubled down on ex-Belichick guys by giving multi-year deals to running back Dion Lewis and cornerback Malcolm Butler. As gimmicky as it seems given Robinson's lengthy past employment with that organization, these signings did help address some of the Titans of the biggest needs. Lewis should be an ideal shifty, dual-threat complement to power back Derrick Henry while the arrival of Butler, who was a borderline top 10 corner before his underwhelming 2017 campaign, gives them the top-flight man coverage guy they lacked a year ago. Stay tuned next year when Robinson breaks the proverbial bank to sign Shaq Mason and Chris Hogan.
-Despite earning the 1st playoff appearance and victory of his career, Marcus Mariota just wasn't very good last year. A shakier pocket presence, poor touch in the redzone and more erratic decisionmaking resulted in the 24-year old easily posting the worst numbers of his career to-date (13 TD's, 15 INT, 79.3 QBR, 7.14 YPA). New offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur could prove to be exactly the kind of shakeup Mariota needs to get his swag back. LaFluer was able to get an unexpectedly great season out of Jared Goff in 2017, so there's no reason to believe that he couldn't help Mariota get back to the sound albeit relatively conservative style of quarterbacking he displayed in the past after a season that was nowhere near as bad as Goff's horrific rookie year.
-Where the hell did this Corey Davis breakout season hype come from? Did that crazy TD catch against the Patriots in the playoffs suddenly set off a relatively widespread belief that he was going to be the next TO or Moss? Like a lot of people, I was bullish on Davis when he came out of Western Michigan, but nothing he did last year outside of that postseason game against the Patriots was particularly impressive, and the stats pretty much back that up (375 YDS and 0 TD's on 33 receptions in 11 regular season games). While playing in LaFluer's pretty aggressive offense should result in an uptick in targets, a 1,000+ yard breakout campaign seems like a far-fetched fantasy at the moment-especially when you consider Mariota's rushing ability and the strong likelihood of their running backs being prominently featured in the passing game.
Bottom Line:
This team fell ass backwards into the playoffs a year ago and I quite simply don't think Vrabel has what it takes to get them back there this season.
Projected Standings:
1.Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
2.Houston Texans (8-8)
3.Tennessee Titans (7-9)
4.Indianapolis Colts (6-10)
-Many tears were shed in the Greater Nashville-area when Mike Mularkey was fired after the Titans blowout loss against the Patriots. As much as I clowned on the architect of the Exotic Smashmouth offense since he was promoted to head coach in 2016, firing him at the end of a season where he made the playoffs and led the team to an improbable comeback win against the Chiefs in the Wild Card round was an unwarranted, coldblooded move by GM Jon Robinson. Making the abrupt head coaching change even more questionable was the decision to replace Mularkey with someone like Mike Vrabel. As poor as his track record was prior to his tenure with the Titans, at least Mularkey had multiple head coaching stints and over 20 years of experience as an assistant on his resume before he landed the gig. Vrabel is a retired player whose only been coaching in the NFL for a hot minute (4 seasons) who oversaw a well below average albeit somewhat banged-up defense during his 1 season as a coordinator with the Texans. Throw in the fact that he's known for being a temperamental hardass and you have an ideal formula for a bust of a head coach hire. I'll give him credit for bringing in some talented assistants to help him out (Matt LaFluer, Dean Pees), but that isn't enough to erase the heavy skepticism I have towards Vrabel's coaching prowess and leadership skills.
-Robinson's infatuation with all things Patriots also carried over to his free-agent signings. After inking Logan Ryan to a 4-year deal last offseason, he doubled down on ex-Belichick guys by giving multi-year deals to running back Dion Lewis and cornerback Malcolm Butler. As gimmicky as it seems given Robinson's lengthy past employment with that organization, these signings did help address some of the Titans of the biggest needs. Lewis should be an ideal shifty, dual-threat complement to power back Derrick Henry while the arrival of Butler, who was a borderline top 10 corner before his underwhelming 2017 campaign, gives them the top-flight man coverage guy they lacked a year ago. Stay tuned next year when Robinson breaks the proverbial bank to sign Shaq Mason and Chris Hogan.
-Despite earning the 1st playoff appearance and victory of his career, Marcus Mariota just wasn't very good last year. A shakier pocket presence, poor touch in the redzone and more erratic decisionmaking resulted in the 24-year old easily posting the worst numbers of his career to-date (13 TD's, 15 INT, 79.3 QBR, 7.14 YPA). New offensive coordinator Matt LaFleur could prove to be exactly the kind of shakeup Mariota needs to get his swag back. LaFluer was able to get an unexpectedly great season out of Jared Goff in 2017, so there's no reason to believe that he couldn't help Mariota get back to the sound albeit relatively conservative style of quarterbacking he displayed in the past after a season that was nowhere near as bad as Goff's horrific rookie year.
-Where the hell did this Corey Davis breakout season hype come from? Did that crazy TD catch against the Patriots in the playoffs suddenly set off a relatively widespread belief that he was going to be the next TO or Moss? Like a lot of people, I was bullish on Davis when he came out of Western Michigan, but nothing he did last year outside of that postseason game against the Patriots was particularly impressive, and the stats pretty much back that up (375 YDS and 0 TD's on 33 receptions in 11 regular season games). While playing in LaFluer's pretty aggressive offense should result in an uptick in targets, a 1,000+ yard breakout campaign seems like a far-fetched fantasy at the moment-especially when you consider Mariota's rushing ability and the strong likelihood of their running backs being prominently featured in the passing game.
Bottom Line:
This team fell ass backwards into the playoffs a year ago and I quite simply don't think Vrabel has what it takes to get them back there this season.
Projected Standings:
1.Jacksonville Jaguars (10-6)
2.Houston Texans (8-8)
3.Tennessee Titans (7-9)
4.Indianapolis Colts (6-10)
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