Denver Broncos
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in AFC West)
Head Coach: Vance Joseph (2nd season)
Notable Additions: QB Case Keenum, P Marquette King, T Jared Veldheer
Notable Departures: CB Aqib Talib, RB C.J. Anderson, QB Trevor Siemian
-The 5-11 season Broncos had in 2017 can almost entirely be attributed to their horrific quarterback play. No matter which member of the Trevor Siemian/Brock Osweiler/Paxton Lynch tandem lined up under center, the offense often struggled to move the ball and developed a horrific tendency to turn the ball over at pivotal moments. Clearly GM John Elway wasn't going to let this horrible QB situation manifest for another season and decided to bring in veteran Case Keenum to be the team's new starter. While I'm skeptical about his ability to put together another sneaky great season like he had with the Vikings in 2017, Keenum is at the very least a significant upgrade over last year's tragic trio of signalcallers. He doesn't tend to turn the ball over a lot (only 7 INT's in 2017) and outside of a really bad string of games with the Texans in 2013, he's proven he can win games at this level (if you exclude that 0-8 run in 2013, he has a 20-10 record as a starter). The truth is that all Keenum needs to do is let this terrific defense make life difficult for their opponents and score enough points to win close games, and I believe he has what it takes to do just that.
-Call me soft if you want, but I'm glad that Vance Joseph ended up getting retained for a 2nd season. It's really hard to make your mark as a coach in the league when your offense is being run by a group of QB's that flat-out can't make plays and turn the ball over at will (34 giveaways, which was just behind the Browns for the league lead). However, his leash will undoubtedly be pretty short moving forward. He's a defensive-minded coach with a deep arsenal of talented players led by perennial standouts Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr. at his disposal that could be even more deadly in 2018 if their high-ceiling rookies (edge rusher Bradley Chubb, inside linebacker Josey Jewell) pan out and his offense has enough talent on it (Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, a few rookies that could end up being playmakers) that the addition of a QB who isn't a strong bet to either get a 3-and-out or throw an INT every time he takes the field should eliminate much of the limpness that caused them to finish in the league's basement in 2017. We can only hope that Joseph will figure this whole head coaching thing out in year 2 and finally get to have the time of his life on the sideline.
-With C.J. Anderson being a cap causality this offseason, there's now a vacancy at starting running back. With all due respect to 2017 6th round pick De'Angelo Henderson, the battle for this job will be between Devontae Booker and rookie Royce Freeman. Freeman has outshined Booker substantially during the preseason, but it wouldn't be a shocker if they were engaged in a (relatively) even timeshare to start off the year because of the rookie's problems in pass-protection and concerns over his workload while he was at the University of Oregon. However, based on Booker's struggles with health and fumbling since entering the NFL, Freeman will likely be the uncontested starter before too long regardless of who ends up getting most of the reps in Week 1. I didn't think Freeman's college tape was overly impressive, but running behind a pretty decent line that has a pair of superb run-blockers on the interior (center Matt Paradis, guard Ronald Leary) in an offense where he's a near-lock to get ample touches should give him a pretty shot of succeeding in the pro's.
Bottom Line:
The near-guarantee stronger play from the QB position makes improvement seemingly inevitable for the Broncos, but this unproven coaching staff makes a return to the playoffs seem far-fetched this season.
-The 5-11 season Broncos had in 2017 can almost entirely be attributed to their horrific quarterback play. No matter which member of the Trevor Siemian/Brock Osweiler/Paxton Lynch tandem lined up under center, the offense often struggled to move the ball and developed a horrific tendency to turn the ball over at pivotal moments. Clearly GM John Elway wasn't going to let this horrible QB situation manifest for another season and decided to bring in veteran Case Keenum to be the team's new starter. While I'm skeptical about his ability to put together another sneaky great season like he had with the Vikings in 2017, Keenum is at the very least a significant upgrade over last year's tragic trio of signalcallers. He doesn't tend to turn the ball over a lot (only 7 INT's in 2017) and outside of a really bad string of games with the Texans in 2013, he's proven he can win games at this level (if you exclude that 0-8 run in 2013, he has a 20-10 record as a starter). The truth is that all Keenum needs to do is let this terrific defense make life difficult for their opponents and score enough points to win close games, and I believe he has what it takes to do just that.
-Call me soft if you want, but I'm glad that Vance Joseph ended up getting retained for a 2nd season. It's really hard to make your mark as a coach in the league when your offense is being run by a group of QB's that flat-out can't make plays and turn the ball over at will (34 giveaways, which was just behind the Browns for the league lead). However, his leash will undoubtedly be pretty short moving forward. He's a defensive-minded coach with a deep arsenal of talented players led by perennial standouts Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr. at his disposal that could be even more deadly in 2018 if their high-ceiling rookies (edge rusher Bradley Chubb, inside linebacker Josey Jewell) pan out and his offense has enough talent on it (Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, a few rookies that could end up being playmakers) that the addition of a QB who isn't a strong bet to either get a 3-and-out or throw an INT every time he takes the field should eliminate much of the limpness that caused them to finish in the league's basement in 2017. We can only hope that Joseph will figure this whole head coaching thing out in year 2 and finally get to have the time of his life on the sideline.
-With C.J. Anderson being a cap causality this offseason, there's now a vacancy at starting running back. With all due respect to 2017 6th round pick De'Angelo Henderson, the battle for this job will be between Devontae Booker and rookie Royce Freeman. Freeman has outshined Booker substantially during the preseason, but it wouldn't be a shocker if they were engaged in a (relatively) even timeshare to start off the year because of the rookie's problems in pass-protection and concerns over his workload while he was at the University of Oregon. However, based on Booker's struggles with health and fumbling since entering the NFL, Freeman will likely be the uncontested starter before too long regardless of who ends up getting most of the reps in Week 1. I didn't think Freeman's college tape was overly impressive, but running behind a pretty decent line that has a pair of superb run-blockers on the interior (center Matt Paradis, guard Ronald Leary) in an offense where he's a near-lock to get ample touches should give him a pretty shot of succeeding in the pro's.
Bottom Line:
The near-guarantee stronger play from the QB position makes improvement seemingly inevitable for the Broncos, but this unproven coaching staff makes a return to the playoffs seem far-fetched this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
2017 Record: 10-6 (1st in AFC West)
Head Coach: Andy Reid (6th season)
Notable Additions: CB Kendall Fuller, WR Sammy Watkins, ILB Anthony Hitchens
Notable Departures: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, ILB Derrick Johnson
-The decision to move on from Alex Smith right now is really ballsy for a couple of reasons: 1.The stability and consistency Smith brought to the position resulted in the Chiefs making 4 playoff appearances, winning 2 division titles and never winning less than 9 games during his 5 seasons with the team. 2.There's absolutely no indication that Patrick Mahomes, who was considered to be a project when he was drafted 10th overall in 2017 due to his shaky pocket presence and the notorious simplicity of the Air Raid offense he ran at Texas Tech, is comfortable enough under center to handle starting duties after only 1 season of learning the ropes behind Smith. While you have to respect the boldness of trading away a QB who is a near-lock to get you to the playoffs in the thin AFC to roll the dice on a big-armed gunslinger who could easily force your team to take a few steps back, I think that giving Mahomes another year to work on his mechanics and further develop an understanding of the many complexities of an NFL offense before trading Smith would've been a good move.
-Regardless of my skepticism surrounding Mahomes' ability to come in and be productive right away, it's hard to argue that he doesn't have a group of receivers around him that aren't ideal for his skill set. Mahomes has to be thrilled to that he has guys like Travis Kelce and top-end speedster Tyreek Hill that have proven time and time again that they can catch bombs down the field. This already stellar vertical attack got even more exciting with the addition of Sammy Watkins-who could prove to be a huge asset if he can bounce back from his down 2017 season with the Rams and solve the timing issues that him and Mahomes have had in the preseason. The depth beneath these 3 and running back Kareem Hunt, who hauled in 53 receptions as a rookie, is a little shaky now that Albert Wilson is out of the equation, but you still have to be intrigued and excited about all of the big-play potential this team has in the passing game with Mahomes under center.
-I've rambled on at length over the course of this series about how running backs are more susceptible to sophomore slumps than just about any other position on the field. Of this year's RB class, I'd give Hunt the highest odds of falling victim to this dreaded gridiron trend. The University of Toledo product's numbers were pretty frontloaded (1,060 of his 1,782 YDS from scrimmage came before November) a year ago and despite the continuity from last season, the Chiefs offensive line is below average and has more than enough vulnerabilities (particularly on the interior) that can be exposed by any half-decent run defense. His guaranteed high volume in Andy Reid's offense will provide plenty of opportunities to avoid this horrible fate I've predicted for him, but I don't expect him to win another rushing title or pick up nearly 1,800 yards from scrimmage again in year 2.
-While it's not as risky as swapping out a veteran QB with 5 playoff appearances on his resume for a 2nd-year guy with 1 career start, cutting ties with young star corner Marcus Peters was still a bold, unexpected move by the Chiefs. Peters may be a not-so-great locker room presence and get torched for easy TD's from time to time, but he's still an excellent player whose very good in coverage and might have the best ball skills of any defensive back in the game as evidenced by his staggering 19 INT's over the past 3 seasons. The silver lining for the Chiefs is they were able to acquire a promising young corner in Kendall Fuller, who graded out as a top 10 corner in the league in 2017, to replace Peters as part of the Smith trade with the Redskins. While he isn't quite the top-notch ballhawk that Peters was, Fuller is much more disciplined in coverage and possess zero character concerns. Given the uncertainty of the other corner slots (currently filled by the always erratic Steven Nelson and Raiders castoff David Amerson) and very realistic possibility that safety Eric Berry isn't the same all-around force he's been in the past as he tries to rebound from an Achilles tear at age 29 going on 30, the Chiefs absolutely need Fuller to cash-in on his immense potential to prevent their secondary from completely falling apart..
Bottom Line:
Unless Patrick Mahomes avoids the bulk of the speed bumps that tend to plague 1st-year starting QB's, the Chiefs win total is likely going to take a bit of a dip in 2018.
-Regardless of my skepticism surrounding Mahomes' ability to come in and be productive right away, it's hard to argue that he doesn't have a group of receivers around him that aren't ideal for his skill set. Mahomes has to be thrilled to that he has guys like Travis Kelce and top-end speedster Tyreek Hill that have proven time and time again that they can catch bombs down the field. This already stellar vertical attack got even more exciting with the addition of Sammy Watkins-who could prove to be a huge asset if he can bounce back from his down 2017 season with the Rams and solve the timing issues that him and Mahomes have had in the preseason. The depth beneath these 3 and running back Kareem Hunt, who hauled in 53 receptions as a rookie, is a little shaky now that Albert Wilson is out of the equation, but you still have to be intrigued and excited about all of the big-play potential this team has in the passing game with Mahomes under center.
-I've rambled on at length over the course of this series about how running backs are more susceptible to sophomore slumps than just about any other position on the field. Of this year's RB class, I'd give Hunt the highest odds of falling victim to this dreaded gridiron trend. The University of Toledo product's numbers were pretty frontloaded (1,060 of his 1,782 YDS from scrimmage came before November) a year ago and despite the continuity from last season, the Chiefs offensive line is below average and has more than enough vulnerabilities (particularly on the interior) that can be exposed by any half-decent run defense. His guaranteed high volume in Andy Reid's offense will provide plenty of opportunities to avoid this horrible fate I've predicted for him, but I don't expect him to win another rushing title or pick up nearly 1,800 yards from scrimmage again in year 2.
-While it's not as risky as swapping out a veteran QB with 5 playoff appearances on his resume for a 2nd-year guy with 1 career start, cutting ties with young star corner Marcus Peters was still a bold, unexpected move by the Chiefs. Peters may be a not-so-great locker room presence and get torched for easy TD's from time to time, but he's still an excellent player whose very good in coverage and might have the best ball skills of any defensive back in the game as evidenced by his staggering 19 INT's over the past 3 seasons. The silver lining for the Chiefs is they were able to acquire a promising young corner in Kendall Fuller, who graded out as a top 10 corner in the league in 2017, to replace Peters as part of the Smith trade with the Redskins. While he isn't quite the top-notch ballhawk that Peters was, Fuller is much more disciplined in coverage and possess zero character concerns. Given the uncertainty of the other corner slots (currently filled by the always erratic Steven Nelson and Raiders castoff David Amerson) and very realistic possibility that safety Eric Berry isn't the same all-around force he's been in the past as he tries to rebound from an Achilles tear at age 29 going on 30, the Chiefs absolutely need Fuller to cash-in on his immense potential to prevent their secondary from completely falling apart..
Bottom Line:
Unless Patrick Mahomes avoids the bulk of the speed bumps that tend to plague 1st-year starting QB's, the Chiefs win total is likely going to take a bit of a dip in 2018.
Los Angeles Chargers
2017 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Anthony Lynn (2nd season)
Notable Additions: C Mike Pouncey, TE Virgil Green, K Caleb Sturgis
Notable Departures: TE Antonio Gates, G/C Matt Slauson, DE Jeremiah Attaochu
-From a pure talent perspective, the Chargers appear to have the ammo to contend for a Super Bowl appearance in this notoriously thin conference as early as this season. Phillip Rivers is still playing pretty well as he creeps towards the big 4-0, they have enough offensive playmakers (Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin) to keep opposing defenses off-balance, their pretty loaded defense might possess the most underrated secondary (Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, Desmond King, Jahleel Addae) and edge-rushing tandem in the league (Joey Bosa/Melvin Ingram) and they closed out 2017 season on a 6-1 run full of decisive wins that would seem to indicate that this team is ready to anoint itself as this division's new top dog. All that being said, I know better than to place any lofty expectations on this team because their luck is so remarkably awful. Hell, they've already lost 3 players (tight end Hunter Henry, cornerback Jason Verrett, safety Jaylen Watkins) that were expected to be valuable contributors to their team and the threat of them losing multiple games on last-second missed field goals by the time mid-October rolls around (I'm still blown away that they're going with another journeyman in Caleb Strugis at this position that has burned them more than anything else over the past decade) remains a very realistic possibility. I legitimately feel bad for all 18 Chargers fans who have to deal with the seemingly unescapable, often unbelievable heartbreak that plagues this team year after year.
-With Henry likely out for the season after tearing his ACL at mini-camp back in May and 82-year old Antonio Gates not being on the roster for the 1st time since 2002, the Chargers might have some serious problems on their hands at tight end. Blocking specialist Virgil Green, who was inked to a 3-year deal in free agency, has become the de facto starter due to the lack of experience elsewhere, but his numbers as a receiver over the course of his 7-year career thus far aren't particularly impressive (807 YDS and 4 TD's on 71 receptions) and I wouldn't expect him to become a frequent target in the passing game. As unexciting as Green is as a pass-catcher, you at least know what to expect from him. If he were to go down, true calamity could break out on this offense. Every backup option they currently have on their roster is either a pinball practice squad guy that has bounced around the league and spent little-to-no-time on an active NFL roster (Sean Culkin, Je'Reon Hamm, Bradedon Bowman or an undrafted rookie free agent (Cole Hunt, Ben Johnson) trying to cling onto a roster spot. OC Ken Wisenhunt is going to have to get creative with target shares and multi-receiver sets to work around this sizable deficiency at a spot where he's used to generating a lot of offense from.
-As much as I like this defense on the whole, I don't think they did enough to address their deficiencies as a run defense this offseason. While the 2017 Jaguars proved you could get away with allowing some chunk plays on the ground without compromising your overall dominance as a group, the Chargers tendency to get dominated on the ground likely prevented them from finishing as a top-ranked scoring defense a year ago. The 3 rookies joining their front 7 (defensive tackle Justin Jones, outside linebackers Uchenna Nwosu and Kyzir White) all have decent upside, but I doubt any of them will be able to make enough of an impact to make up for the odd combination of over-the-hill defensive lineman (Brandon Mebane, Corey Liguet, Damion Square) and shaky linebackers (Jatavis Brown, Denzel Perryman, Kyle Emanuel) with poor track records as downhill tacklers they have playing prominent roles upfront that resulted in them allowing a gaudy 131.4 YDS per game last season (2nd-worst in the league). In a division full of teams that love to run the hell out of the ball, this is the absolute worst backbreaking problem the Chargers D could possibly have.
-Outside of the Colts and Seahawks, no team has had more notorious offensive lines problems over the last 5 years than the Chargers. However, unlike those organizations, there's no signs that improvement could be on the horizon in LA. Once you get past their respectable starting tackle combo (Russell Okung, Joe Barksdale), it's a god damn house of horrors down there in Costa Mesa. 2nd-year guard Forrest Lamp appears to have a chronic knee issue that's going to keep him off-the-field for at least the initial chunk of the season, bum's bum Michael Schofield has miraculously secured another starting job in the NFL as the Bolts new starting right guard and replacing Matt Slauson with Mike Pouncey at center might've made them younger, but it sure as hell didn't make them better. Thankfully Rivers is a tough SOB who can get rid of the ball pretty quickly because a more brittle QB in his age range would probably be out of the league if they had a revolving door of turnstiles like this upfront for 5+ years.
-From a pure talent perspective, the Chargers appear to have the ammo to contend for a Super Bowl appearance in this notoriously thin conference as early as this season. Phillip Rivers is still playing pretty well as he creeps towards the big 4-0, they have enough offensive playmakers (Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin) to keep opposing defenses off-balance, their pretty loaded defense might possess the most underrated secondary (Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, Desmond King, Jahleel Addae) and edge-rushing tandem in the league (Joey Bosa/Melvin Ingram) and they closed out 2017 season on a 6-1 run full of decisive wins that would seem to indicate that this team is ready to anoint itself as this division's new top dog. All that being said, I know better than to place any lofty expectations on this team because their luck is so remarkably awful. Hell, they've already lost 3 players (tight end Hunter Henry, cornerback Jason Verrett, safety Jaylen Watkins) that were expected to be valuable contributors to their team and the threat of them losing multiple games on last-second missed field goals by the time mid-October rolls around (I'm still blown away that they're going with another journeyman in Caleb Strugis at this position that has burned them more than anything else over the past decade) remains a very realistic possibility. I legitimately feel bad for all 18 Chargers fans who have to deal with the seemingly unescapable, often unbelievable heartbreak that plagues this team year after year.
-With Henry likely out for the season after tearing his ACL at mini-camp back in May and 82-year old Antonio Gates not being on the roster for the 1st time since 2002, the Chargers might have some serious problems on their hands at tight end. Blocking specialist Virgil Green, who was inked to a 3-year deal in free agency, has become the de facto starter due to the lack of experience elsewhere, but his numbers as a receiver over the course of his 7-year career thus far aren't particularly impressive (807 YDS and 4 TD's on 71 receptions) and I wouldn't expect him to become a frequent target in the passing game. As unexciting as Green is as a pass-catcher, you at least know what to expect from him. If he were to go down, true calamity could break out on this offense. Every backup option they currently have on their roster is either a pinball practice squad guy that has bounced around the league and spent little-to-no-time on an active NFL roster (Sean Culkin, Je'Reon Hamm, Bradedon Bowman or an undrafted rookie free agent (Cole Hunt, Ben Johnson) trying to cling onto a roster spot. OC Ken Wisenhunt is going to have to get creative with target shares and multi-receiver sets to work around this sizable deficiency at a spot where he's used to generating a lot of offense from.
-As much as I like this defense on the whole, I don't think they did enough to address their deficiencies as a run defense this offseason. While the 2017 Jaguars proved you could get away with allowing some chunk plays on the ground without compromising your overall dominance as a group, the Chargers tendency to get dominated on the ground likely prevented them from finishing as a top-ranked scoring defense a year ago. The 3 rookies joining their front 7 (defensive tackle Justin Jones, outside linebackers Uchenna Nwosu and Kyzir White) all have decent upside, but I doubt any of them will be able to make enough of an impact to make up for the odd combination of over-the-hill defensive lineman (Brandon Mebane, Corey Liguet, Damion Square) and shaky linebackers (Jatavis Brown, Denzel Perryman, Kyle Emanuel) with poor track records as downhill tacklers they have playing prominent roles upfront that resulted in them allowing a gaudy 131.4 YDS per game last season (2nd-worst in the league). In a division full of teams that love to run the hell out of the ball, this is the absolute worst backbreaking problem the Chargers D could possibly have.
-Outside of the Colts and Seahawks, no team has had more notorious offensive lines problems over the last 5 years than the Chargers. However, unlike those organizations, there's no signs that improvement could be on the horizon in LA. Once you get past their respectable starting tackle combo (Russell Okung, Joe Barksdale), it's a god damn house of horrors down there in Costa Mesa. 2nd-year guard Forrest Lamp appears to have a chronic knee issue that's going to keep him off-the-field for at least the initial chunk of the season, bum's bum Michael Schofield has miraculously secured another starting job in the NFL as the Bolts new starting right guard and replacing Matt Slauson with Mike Pouncey at center might've made them younger, but it sure as hell didn't make them better. Thankfully Rivers is a tough SOB who can get rid of the ball pretty quickly because a more brittle QB in his age range would probably be out of the league if they had a revolving door of turnstiles like this upfront for 5+ years.
Bottom Line:
I'm predicting the Chargers to win the division because I think they're the most complete team in the AFC West, but I'm positive they'll receive a lethal, season-ending kick to their metaphorical dick once the playoffs start, if not sooner.
I'm predicting the Chargers to win the division because I think they're the most complete team in the AFC West, but I'm positive they'll receive a lethal, season-ending kick to their metaphorical dick once the playoffs start, if not sooner.
Oakland Raiders
2017 Record: 6-10 (3rd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Jon Gruden (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Jordy Nelson, CB Rashaan Melvin, ILB Derrick Johnson
Notable Departures: WR Michael Crabtree, K Sebastian Janikowski, CB David Amerson
-After years of rumors about a coaching comeback, Mark Davis and his majestic bowl cut ended up being the person that was able to lure Jon Gruden out of the broadcast booth. Turns out all you needed to do to get Gruden to leave Monday Night Football was to offer him $100 million for his services. While fans seem to be eating up the redemption narrative of a once-beloved coach returning to the team that mercilessly traded him after the 2001 season , this just screams of a face-saving PR move to give Bay Area Raiders fans some warm nostalgic memories of the good ol'days before they take off for Las Vegas in 2-3 years. I understand that he was watching film on a weekly basis as preparation for MNF, but this guy has been away from coaching for a fucking decade!!!! Coaching icons like Joe Gibbs and Mike Ditka had a hard time evolving to the game after spending a significant amount of time away from the sidelines and Gruden doesn't seem like he's going to be the guy to suddenly break that trend. His public dismissal of analytics, frequent references to his past success and prominent role he played in the signings of multiple aging former stars (Jordy Nelson, Derrick Johnson, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) in free agency this offseason only further confirmed the suspicion that his mindset is too primitive to enjoy success in the modern NFL. The NFL is a better place with Gruden in it, but I don't think his return to the sideline will do anything but damage the clout and prestige that was once associated with his name.
-Another early red flag from the Gruden regime is how he's handled the holdout of Khalil Mack. Mack is understandably looking for his big payday a year early after racking up 40.5 sacks, 2 1st-team All-Pro appearances and a Defensive Player of the Year honor in his first 4 years in the league, but Mr."I want to take football back to 1998" won't sign off on giving him the $50+ mil in guaranteed money he's commanding as the league's most dominant young edge defender. The 2 sides reportedly haven't had a meaningful discussion in months and the Raiders now have to face the very real possibility of starting the year without the best player on their roster by a wide margin-which I'm sure will do wonders for this reclamation project they're currently embarking on. If I were Mack, I would refuse to step foot on the field for this organization again and put the full-court press on for a trade right away. The Raiders locker room environment could real ugly real quick if they continue to lose and as an elite player whose likely to be coveted by any team who has cap space and is looking to add a game-changing front 7 piece to their roster, even the threat of a situation like that breaking out would be enough for me to want out.
-The popular opinion around Derek Carr started to shift a bit after a rough 2017 season where he often lacked poise, made questionable throws and failed to show up for big games. I have a gut feeling that those bad tendencies will only get worse with this new coaching staff. As he proved with Blake Bortles during his time with the Jaguars, OC Greg Olson is a poor playcaller who doesn't seem to know how to help QB's fix their bad habits and this receiving corps is led by guys who either have shaky hands (Amari Cooper, who is also coming an awful season), blasé work ethics (Martavis Bryant, who the Steelers finally traded away after yet another wildly inconsistent campaign in 2017) or old men that look like they're moving in slow motion every time they break on a route (Nelson). Throwing a struggling QB surrounded by questionable receiving talent into a new offensive system just seems like a failure in the making and is without question one of the main reasons I expect the Raiders to be such an epic dumpster fire this season.
-Even without the prospect of Mack terrorizing opponents at the line of scrimmage for at least the near future, defense is the lone area where the Raiders seem likely to improve under Gruden. New defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, whose has spent the past 4 season seasons as the Bengals DC, should help bolster the development of their key young players (safety Karl Joseph, cornerback Gareon Conley, inside linebacker Marquel Lee) and while the aforementioned geriatric additions were head-scratching, they also brought in some solid veterans (outside linebacker Tahir Whitehead, cornerbacks Rashaan Melvin and Shareece Wright) that should help sure up the depth at positions where they had consistent problems last year. Real shame about the rest of the team and coaching staff though.
Bottom Line:
The Raiders currently don't have Khalil Mack, hired a coach who hasn't been on an NFL sideline since 2007 and have a considerably older roster than they did a year ago. Definitely no way this could end up going horribly wrong!
Projected Standings:
1.Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
2.Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
3.Denver Broncos (7-9)
4.Oakland Raiders (4-12)
-After years of rumors about a coaching comeback, Mark Davis and his majestic bowl cut ended up being the person that was able to lure Jon Gruden out of the broadcast booth. Turns out all you needed to do to get Gruden to leave Monday Night Football was to offer him $100 million for his services. While fans seem to be eating up the redemption narrative of a once-beloved coach returning to the team that mercilessly traded him after the 2001 season , this just screams of a face-saving PR move to give Bay Area Raiders fans some warm nostalgic memories of the good ol'days before they take off for Las Vegas in 2-3 years. I understand that he was watching film on a weekly basis as preparation for MNF, but this guy has been away from coaching for a fucking decade!!!! Coaching icons like Joe Gibbs and Mike Ditka had a hard time evolving to the game after spending a significant amount of time away from the sidelines and Gruden doesn't seem like he's going to be the guy to suddenly break that trend. His public dismissal of analytics, frequent references to his past success and prominent role he played in the signings of multiple aging former stars (Jordy Nelson, Derrick Johnson, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) in free agency this offseason only further confirmed the suspicion that his mindset is too primitive to enjoy success in the modern NFL. The NFL is a better place with Gruden in it, but I don't think his return to the sideline will do anything but damage the clout and prestige that was once associated with his name.
-Another early red flag from the Gruden regime is how he's handled the holdout of Khalil Mack. Mack is understandably looking for his big payday a year early after racking up 40.5 sacks, 2 1st-team All-Pro appearances and a Defensive Player of the Year honor in his first 4 years in the league, but Mr."I want to take football back to 1998" won't sign off on giving him the $50+ mil in guaranteed money he's commanding as the league's most dominant young edge defender. The 2 sides reportedly haven't had a meaningful discussion in months and the Raiders now have to face the very real possibility of starting the year without the best player on their roster by a wide margin-which I'm sure will do wonders for this reclamation project they're currently embarking on. If I were Mack, I would refuse to step foot on the field for this organization again and put the full-court press on for a trade right away. The Raiders locker room environment could real ugly real quick if they continue to lose and as an elite player whose likely to be coveted by any team who has cap space and is looking to add a game-changing front 7 piece to their roster, even the threat of a situation like that breaking out would be enough for me to want out.
-The popular opinion around Derek Carr started to shift a bit after a rough 2017 season where he often lacked poise, made questionable throws and failed to show up for big games. I have a gut feeling that those bad tendencies will only get worse with this new coaching staff. As he proved with Blake Bortles during his time with the Jaguars, OC Greg Olson is a poor playcaller who doesn't seem to know how to help QB's fix their bad habits and this receiving corps is led by guys who either have shaky hands (Amari Cooper, who is also coming an awful season), blasé work ethics (Martavis Bryant, who the Steelers finally traded away after yet another wildly inconsistent campaign in 2017) or old men that look like they're moving in slow motion every time they break on a route (Nelson). Throwing a struggling QB surrounded by questionable receiving talent into a new offensive system just seems like a failure in the making and is without question one of the main reasons I expect the Raiders to be such an epic dumpster fire this season.
-Even without the prospect of Mack terrorizing opponents at the line of scrimmage for at least the near future, defense is the lone area where the Raiders seem likely to improve under Gruden. New defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, whose has spent the past 4 season seasons as the Bengals DC, should help bolster the development of their key young players (safety Karl Joseph, cornerback Gareon Conley, inside linebacker Marquel Lee) and while the aforementioned geriatric additions were head-scratching, they also brought in some solid veterans (outside linebacker Tahir Whitehead, cornerbacks Rashaan Melvin and Shareece Wright) that should help sure up the depth at positions where they had consistent problems last year. Real shame about the rest of the team and coaching staff though.
Bottom Line:
The Raiders currently don't have Khalil Mack, hired a coach who hasn't been on an NFL sideline since 2007 and have a considerably older roster than they did a year ago. Definitely no way this could end up going horribly wrong!
Projected Standings:
1.Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
2.Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
3.Denver Broncos (7-9)
4.Oakland Raiders (4-12)
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