Tomorow morning is the Super Bowl for the small group of movie nerds that actually get invested in awards shows as the Oscar nominations are set to be announced live at 8:30 AM EST. Here are the films and individuals I expect to be competing for Hollywood's highest honors this year.
Best Picture:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TAR
Top Gun: Maverick
The Whale
Women Talking
Locks: The Banshees of Inisherin, Elvis, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, TAR, Top Gun: Maverick
Toss-Ups: All Quiet on the Western Front, Avatar: The Way of Water, The Whale, Women Talking
Other Viable Contenders for a Nomination: Aftersun, Babylon, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, Glass Onion, RRR, Triangle of Sadness, The Woman King
Best Director:
Edward Berger, All Quiet on the Western Front
Daniels, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Todd Field, TAR
Martin McDonagh, The Banshees of Inisherin
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Locks: Daniels, Martin McDonagh, Steven Spielberg
Toss-Up: Edward Berger, Todd Field
Other Viable Contenders for a Nomination: James Cameron, Avatar: The Way of Water, Joseph Kosinski, Top Gun: Maverick, Baz Luhrmann, Elvis, Gina Prince-Bythewood, The Woman King, Sarah Polley, Women Talking, Charlotte Wells, Aftersun
Best Actor:
Austin Butler, Elvis
Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
Paul Mescal, Aftersun
Bill Nighy, Living
Locks: Austin Butler, Colin Farrell, Brendan Fraser, Bill Nighy
Toss-Up: Paul Mescal
Other Viable Contenders for a Nomination: Diego Calva, Babylon, Tom Cruise, Top Gun: Maverick, Tom Hanks, A Man Called Otto, Felix Kammerer, All Quiet on the Western Front, Gabriel LaBelle, The Fabelmans, Jeremy Pope, The Inspection, Adam Sandler, Hustle
Best Actress:
Cate Blanchett, TAR
Viola Davis, The Woman King
Danielle Deadwyler, Till
Ana de Armas, Blonde
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Locks: Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh
Toss-Ups: Viola Davis, Danielle Deadwyler, Ana de Armas
Other Viable Contenders for a Nomination: Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie, Margot Robbie, Babylon, Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
Best Supporting Actor:
Brendan Gleeson, The Banshees of Inisherin
Paul Dano, The Fabelmans
Barry Keoghan, The Banshees of Inisherin
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Eddie Redmayne, The Good Nurse
Locks: Brendan Gleeson, Barry Keoghan, Ke Huy Quan
Toss-Ups: Paul Dano, Eddie Redmayne
Other Viable Contenders for a Nomination: Tom Hanks, Elvis, Woody Harrelson, Triangle of Sadness, Brian Tyree Henry, Causeway, Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans, Brad Pitt, Babylon, Albrecht Schuch, All Quiet on the Western Front, Ben Whishaw, Women Talking
Best Supporting Actress:
Angela Bassett, Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Hong Chau, The Whale
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
Jamie Lee Curtis, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Stephanie Hsu, Everything Everywhere All at Once
Locks: Angela Bassett, Kerry Condon
Toss-Ups: Hong Chau, Jamie Lee Curtis, Stephanie Hsu
Other Viable Contenders for a Nomination: Jessie Buckley, Women Talking, Dolly de Leon, Triangle of Sadness, Janelle Monae, Glass Onion, Carey Mulligan, She Said
Best Original Screenplay:
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere All at Once
The Fabelmans
TAR
Triangle of Sadness
Best Adapted Screenplay:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Glass Onion
Living
The Whale
Women Talking
Best Animated Feature Film:
Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell with Shoes On
My Father's Dragon
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
Turning Red
Best Documentary Feature:
All That Breathes
All the Beauty and the Bloodshed
Descendant
Fire of Love
Navalny
Best International Feature Film:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Argentina, 1985
Close
Decision to Leave
The Quiet Girl
Best Cinematography:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
Empire of Light
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Film Editing:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All at Once
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Score:
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
The Fabelmans
Gullermo del Toro's Pinocchio
Women Talking
Best Original Song:
"Applause", Tell It Like a Woman
"Ciao Papa", Guillermo del Toro's Pinocchio
"Hold My Hand", Top Gun: Maverick
"Lift Me Up", Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
"Natu Natu", RRR
Best Costume Design:
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
Mrs. Harries Goes to Paris
The Woman King
Best Production Design:
Avatar: The Way of Water
Babylon
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Fabelmans
Best Makeup and Hairstyling:
All Quiet on the Western Front
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Elvis
The Whale
Best Sound:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Visual Effects:
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar: The Way of Water
The Batman
Black Panther: Wakanda Forever
Top Gun: Maverick
Best Animated Short:
An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think Believe It
The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse
The Flying Sailor
New Moon
Save Ralph
Best Documentary Short:
38 at the Garden
The Elephant Whispers
The Flagmakers
How Do You Measure a Year?
Nuisance Bear
Best Live Action Short:
An Irish Goodbye
Le Pupille
Nakam
The Red Suitcase
Warsha
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