Friday, January 19, 2024

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Wild Card Record: 2-4 (Correct: Chiefs, Bills Incorrect: Browns, Cowboys, Rams, Eagles)

Baltimore Ravens over Houston Texans: 

Despite being the top seed in the AFC, the Ravens are entering this postseason with a lot to prove. Lamar Jackson has a spotty track record in the playoffs to say the least with a 1-3 career record, John Harbaugh hasn't been much better himself of late-going just 2-5 in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl in 2012 and their top-ranked defense is mostly compromised of players who haven't played in a whole lot of high-leverage games during their professional careers. A hungry Texans team led by the scorching hot rookie QB C.J. Stroud that just flat-out demolished the Browns last weekend will provide an excellent test of their meddle. Ultimately, I'm pretty confident in the Ravens ability to pull this one out. Naive or not, I do believe this Ravens team has grown up and delivered tough, clutch performances in spots this year where they hadn't previously (Christmas Day in San Francisco against the 49ers being the best example)-which has sold me on their ability to perform on this stage, it would be stunning if the Ravens defense displayed the level of poor tackling and pass coverage that allowed the Texans to make so many huge plays against the Browns and like most young teams, the Texans haven't been as sharp on the road as they've been in their own building (4-5 versus their 7-3 makr in their own building).       

San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers: 

The Packers complete and utter domination of the Cowboys on Wild Card Weekend was the biggest endorsement of Matt LaFluer, Jordan and the unsung ability of their young talent on both sides of the ball yet. That being said, the 49ers don't have the same struggles with execution and mental toughness that the Cowboys have this time of year and Kyle Shanahan has absolutely given the business to his old friend LaFleur in both of their previous playoff meetings-which makes another shocking road upset feel highly unlikely.    

Detroit Lions over Tampa Bay Buccaneers:

Here's a sentence I never thought I'd write: I think the Detroit Lions are going to make the NFC Championship Game. While Tampa's excellent run/redzone D, Dan Campbell's erratic nature and the tragedy-fueled DNA of this team leaves plenty of room for things to go sideways, their defense's ability to make stops when it mattered in the redzone last week on a night where Matthew Stafford was absolutely dealing under center despite taking an absolute beating and Jared Goff's ability to step up and seal the deal when the Rams were threatening to pull off the upset showed that this team isn't too big for the moment and just might be able to go on the type of run that we haven't seen from them in over 30 years. Plus, The Bucs are a weaker team than the Rams in most facets of the game and it's more likely that their impressive offensive performance last week can be chalked up to just how bad the Eagles played than anything special that Baker Mayfield and OC Dave Canales did (although it does need to be noted that the Bucs probably would've scored 50+ points if the Bucs receivers didn't drop 5 or 6 passes that Mayfield couldn't have possibly thrown any better).      

Kansas City Chiefs over Buffalo Bills: 

The NFL got exactly what they wanted in yet another Chiefs/Bills matchup in the playoffs. What makes this particular showdown between these newly-minted rivals so exciting is that it's the first time that they've met in Upstate New York this time of the year. While the game being in Orchard Park and the Chiefs being the most vulnerable they've been during the Patrick Mahomes-era by far on account of the unreliable cast of pass-catchers the front office has surrounded him with gives the Bills a good chance to win this game, I still like Kansas City here. The combination of this being his 1st career road playoff game and the Kadarius Toney offsides debacle that cost them their meeting during the regular season should put Mahomes in a spot where he's extra motivated to ball out, the Bills really haven't looked all that sharp offensively for the majority of the past 4 weeks despite what the scoreboard has said when the game clock reached 0:00 and most importantly, the Bills are extremely banged-up on defense right now-which is not a great development when Andy Reid and Mahomes are coming into the town.        

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