Baltimore Ravens
2023 Record: 13-4 (1st in AFC North)
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (17th season)
Notable Additions: RB Derrick Henry, S Eddie Jackson, T Josh Jones
Notable Departures: ILB Patrick Queen, G Kevin Zeitler, EDGE Jadeveon Clowney
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Adding Derrick Henry to Their Rushing Attack
Given how much talent they have under contract, their cap situation and prioritizing re-signing Justin Madubuike over anything else this offseason, the Ravens were pretty quiet in free agency. The lone truly notable signing they made before adding former Bears All-Pro safety Eddie Jackson right before the start of training camp was one that could have huge ramifications on how they operate this season: signing Derrick Henry. In terms of fit and usage possibilities, Henry couldn't have possibly landed in a better spot than the Ravens. The Ravens get to add a new element to their rushing attack with a power rusher that is capable of hitting home runs every time he touches the ball while Henry gets the benefit of no longer having to be a workhorse back at age 30 going on 31, which could possibly extend his career after enduring a prolonged stretch of handling a comically large workload that dates all the way back to his final year at Alabama in 2015. Seeing how Todd Monken attacks defenses with an RB rotation of Henry, trusted dual-threat option Justice Hill and shifty speedster Keaton Mitchell-who will likely be out to start the year as he recovers from the ACL tear he suffered last December-alongside Lamar Jackson should be very exciting and make a dynamic Ravens rushing attack that much more unpredictable and harder to defend.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Defense Regressing
The 2023 Ravens defense was the arguably the best the league has seen in a number of years. They were physical, fast and disciplined. They got after the quarterback, caused turnovers and made stops on 3rd down and in the redzone. Several guys from the group (Roquan Smith, Patrick Queen, Kyle Hamilton, Brandon Stephens, Geno Stone, Madubuike) put together the best seasons of their careers. Unsurprisingly, the exemplary efforts of this defense were noticed around the league and other teams came calling when the offseason rolled around.
DC Mike Macdonald became the new head coach of the Seahawks. Associate Head Coach/Defensive Line Coach Anthony Weaver interviewed for some head coaching positions and eventually filled the Dolphins DC vacancy. Defensive backs coach Dennard Wilson got hired to be the Titans DC under their new HC Brian Callahan. Key contributors Queen, Stone, Jadeveon Clowney and Ronald Darby signed with the Steelers, Bengals, Panthers and Jaguars respectively.
ILB coach/former Ravens player Zach Orr was the highest-ranking assistant left once the dust settled on the staff changes and he ended up with the DC promotion as a result. Also returning to the fold are pass game coordinator/secondary Chris Hewitt-who is also taking over the associated head coach role that Weaver vacated, OLB/pass rush coach Chuck Smith and assistant DL/OLB coach Matt Robinson. Orr should more or less be running the same system as Macdonald did last year and the public and private belief from the team is that Orr-who just turned 32-is another young coaching prodigy like Macdonald, so the expectations for him will be extremely high.
As for the on-field personnel turnover, there's varying levels of concern. The secondary shouldn't be a huge issue as Jackson is a reliable veteran safety who is capable of being an elite ballhawk (see 2018 and 2022) when healthy while Arthur Maulet is a scrappy player coming off a great 2023 in the slot and one of the rookies (Nate Wiggins, T.J. Tampa) should be able to handle the backup/spot starter outside corner role that Darby held down last year. The front 7, on the other hand, has the potential to be a real problem. Trenton Simpson is a big downgrade from Queen in terms of fluidity and athleticism and he could struggle to handle coverage assignments against shiftier players. Clowney's exit puts some serious pressure on 2022 2nd round pick David Ojabo or rookie Adissa Issac-who is currently on the NFI List- to step up as rotational pass rushers and for Odafe Oweh to finally take that next step as a player after three decent seasons as a sub-package player/occasional starter. Madubuike was playing for a contract last year and his past productivity (7.5 sacks and 15 TFL's combined in 2021/22) wasn't even in the vicinity of what he did in 2023 (13 sacks, 12 TFL's), so the Ravens will be hoping that last year was a breakout and not just a fluke brought on by bag-chasing.
Defensive dominance has been at the heart of the best Ravens teams over the years and if this team slips even a bit under the new regime/starting lineup, their contending window could very well get prematurely slammed shut.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Offense Showing Up in the Playoffs
I'll start by stating the obvious: Jackson hasn't been good enough in the playoffs. Outside of the 2nd half of the Texans game last year and the 2020 Wild Card Round win over the Titans, he's looked overwhelmed by playing on such a big stage. But the horrendous loss the Ravens took to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game last year went beyond Jackson. Monken called a horrendous game that played right into the hands of the Chiefs blitz-heavy, excellent coverage defense (37 passing attempts in a close game!) as he didn't even really try to utilize the varied rushing attack (16 rushing attempts the whole game and 8 of them were from Jackson on non-designed runs) that makes his offense so special. Zay Flowers killed a drive that could've won the Ravens the game with a taunting penalty and idiotic attempt to stretch the ball over the goalline that resulted in a fumble out of the back of the endzone. Odell Beckham Jr., Isaiah Likely and Rashod Bateman did absolutely nothing (neither did Mark Andrews, but he gets a pass since he was playing hurt).
Nobody will be surprised if the Ravens are back at the top of the AFC this year, but no amount of regular season wins will matter if they bow out of the playoffs in embarrassing fashion yet again. This is team too talented, and John Harbaugh is too good of a coach to keep falling short of the Super Bowl. Jackson is 27 now. Greg Roman is gone. The pass catchers are good enough to compete. The defense is among the most talented in the league. All of the excuses that existed for them as recently as 2 years ago are out the window and now is the time for them to show up and win or they'll forever be known as the 2020's answer to the Marthy Schottenheimer-era Chargers teams or the mid-to-late 2010's Steelers teams with Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell.
Bottom Line:
While it would be pretty surprising if the Ravens didn't put together another excellent regular season, they're going to have start winning in January/February if they want to truly be taken seriously as a contender.
Cincinnati Bengals
2023 Record: 9-8 (4th in AFC North)
Head Coach: Zac Taylor (6th season)
Notable Additions: DT Sheldon Rankins, T Trent Brown, S Geno Stone
Notable Departures: DT D.J. Reader, CB Chidobe Awuzie, RB Joe Mixon
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Tee Higgins Returning to the Fold
The long-term prospects of Higgins remaining with the Bengals are not good. No progress has been made on an extension and the prospect of Mike Brown paying him when he already paid Joe Burrow a zillion dollars and is going to have to pay Ja'Marr Chase another zillion sometime next year feels highly unlikely. But for now, Higgins has committed to the Bengals for 2024 after rescinding his trade request and signing the franchise tag in mid-June. Considering the state of the Bengals offensive weapons now that longtime reliable options Joe Mixon and Tyler Boyd are gone, Higgins' playmaking presence will be particularly welcome in 2024. This is only a minor victory for the team, but it's a victory nonetheless and that's something worth celebrating amidst a quietly terrible offseason for the organization.
Biggest Reason for Concern: The State of Their Secondary
The devastation caused by Burrow getting knocked out for the year covered up and excused a lot of the other things the Bengals did poorly last season. While their spotty offensive line play received some attention since their QB's continued to get lit up most weeks and the rushing lanes were never consistently there, they skated on their poor defensive play-particularly on the back end. They actually ranked 28th in the league against the pass and dead last in net yards allowed per pass attempt. In true Bengals fashion, these shortcomings inspired them to make some minor tweaks. For the 2nd straight year, they're changing out both of their starting safeties with Vonn Bell-who is returning to Cincy after spending the past 2 seasons with the Panthers and Geno Stone-who led the league in INT's last year with 7-coming over in free agency. Safeties coach Robert Livingston also bolted for the college ranks-joining Deion Sanders' staff at Colorado as their new DC. Livingston was replaced internally by assistant LB coach and former NFL safety/special teamer Jordan Kovacs. On the more significant end of the change spectrum, top corner Chidobe Awuzie left for the Titans in free agency.
So where does this leave an already not good group heading into the 2024? Not in a good place at all. Putting more reasonability onto the plate of Cam Taylor-Britt in the wake of Awuzie's departure feels like an awful idea given how much he's struggled against #2 options in his inaugural 2 NFL seasons while inserting D.J Turner II into the starting lineup after his awful rookie campaign (693 YDS allowed on 40 receptions, 4 TD's allowed, 111.6 passing rating against) feels like an unnecessary dice roll. On the safety front, Bell was allowed to walk from Carolina for a reason as he was mediocre in both of his years there and Stone's ballhawk title may not be earned yet as he had just 1 career INT before last season and played more of a 3rd safety role behind Marcus Williams and Kyle Hamilton in Baltimore-which granted him the freedom to be hyperaggressive and jump routes without worrying about blowing coverage assignments At least the consistently good, if not great Mike Hilton is still around to patrol the slot.
There are of course a few wild cards that could lead this group to take some steps forward. Turner could very well figure things out in year 2 as he was a highly touted prospect coming out of Michigan, Stone could take nicely to his elevated responsibility and maybe Jordan Battle-who was a pleasant surprise as a rookie-can continue to have a meaningful role on the back end despite the additions of Bell and Stone. But they're putting an awful lot of faith in a young group to turn around a terrible pass defense and that'll always be a huge gamble, especially in a conference that is so loaded with elite QB talent.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Joe Burrow's Health
Jake Browning really did an admirable job of holding down the fort once Burrow went on a season-ending IR with a wrist injury on his throwing hand. The 5th year undrafted player out of the University of Washington went 4-3 as a starter, completed an impressive 70.4 of his passes and put together a respectable 12/7 TD:INT split. Browning's play in relief of Burrow-which was enough to earn him a new 2-year deal with the Bengals this offseason. As respectable as he was, he's still a backup and the team took a noticeable dip without Burrow at the helm. They ran the ball more and the pass attack went from vertical to a more conservative, dip-and-dunk approach, which limited their effectiveness at times (particularly in their losses to the Steelers and Chiefs in Weeks 16 and 17).
As Burrow returns at full go for 2024, his importance to the Bengals has never been higher. Zac Taylor could be on the hot seat with another disappointing season, especially if the offense tanks following the departure of longtime OC Brian Callahan. Both Chase and Higgins are seeking new deals and need to have great years to ensure they can max out the money they get. The rushing attack is facing all sorts of uncertainty now that Mixon is gone and being replaced by some combination of journeyman Zack Moss and 2nd year back Chase Brown-who remains a complete enigma given how little he played last year. Losing him to injury this season would be catastrophic and as long as this offensive line remains unreliable (as Raiders and Patriots fans will tell you, bringing in Trent Brown to replace Jonah Williams at RT is far from guaranteed to stabilize things), his risk to get seriously hurt again will remain heightened.
Bottom Line:
Between their potential issues on the o-line, with their secondary and in the locker room with several players upset about their contract situations (Higgins, Chase, Trey Hendrickson), I don't like where the Bengals are at all right now and wouldn't be even remotely surprised to see them completely unravel if things don't go their way early on.
Cleveland Browns
2023 Record: 11-6 (2nd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski (5th season)
Notable Additions: WR Jerry Jeudy, ILB Jordan Hicks, QB Jameis Winston
Notable Departures: QB Joe Flacco, ILB Anthony Walker Jr., ILB Sione Takitaki
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Nearly All of Last Year's 11-Win Team is Back
Continuity helps build winning teams and the Browns have a whole lot of it carrying over into 2024. A whopping 19 out of 22 their offensive and defensive starters along with their top special teamers (Dustin Hopkins, Corey Bojorquez) from last year's 11-win team will be returning for 2024. How did this remarkable feat happen? A combination of good fortune with many top players not being up for new contracts after last season and aggressively re-upping the few key guys that did hit the market (Za'Darius Smith, Shelby Harris, Bojorquez). The foundation for building a true winner is in place and now it's up to Kevin Stefanski, Jim Schwartz and Ken Dorsey to help take them there.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Deshaun Watson (Again)
One of the more impressive things that happened in the NFL last season was watching how the Browns were able to win in spite of Deshaun Watson. In his 6 starts before being placed on season-ending IR with a broken bone in his throwing shoulder, the 2017 1st round pick was below average at best and yet the team was still able to string together a 5-1 record during that time. His completion percentage was only 61.4%, his YPA was equal to his dreadful return to the field in 2023 (6.5) and perhaps most concerningly, he only threw 7 TD's against 4 INT's. The eventual miracle run to the playoffs spearheaded by fresh off the couch 38-year-old Joe Flacco made Watson's struggles feel like a fleeting memory from a shittier existence, but the Flacco comeback tour is now over with him departing for the Colts in free agency and the spotlight has now returned to Watson and the hollow shell of his former self that he's become.
The harsh reality is that Watson just has not been the same player he was in Houston since arriving in Cleveland. He's looking like a journeyman who stumbled into the starting job instead of the franchise QB he was in Houston. Maybe it's all the rust he's accumulated from playing in 12 football games over the past 3 seasons or the whole being outed as a serial sexual predator that's led to his regression on the field, but the Browns have to be getting very close to the point where they'll consider cutting ties with their latest awful football decision if he can't turn it around this season. There's almost zero chance that Jimmy Haslam and Andrew Berry want to create their own version of the Russell Wilson albatross that's going to kill the Broncos cap situation for the next 5 years, but what choice will they have if their $230-year million investment continues to perform like a $2.3 million stopgap that flailing teams employ when they need a sacrificial lamb to go out there while their rookie QB takes some additional time to get acclimated to the pros?
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting Anything Positive Out of the QB Position
As Flacco proved once he was inserted into the starting job for the final 5 games of the regular season, having somebody who can sling the football does wonders for the flow of their offense. Sure, the Browns can grind out wins by running the ball and playing defense, but that's not as fun or pragmatic as being able to be a complete modern football team with aerial capabilities.
Flacco's aforementioned departure takes away the guarantee of the late season Browns offense showing up to start the year, but they'll certainly be looking to replicate that style, especially with a pass-happy psycho like Dorsey now on board as OC. Given their financial commitments to Watson, the Browns would definitely prefer if he started to look like the player he was in Houston and proficiently aired the shit out of the ball from the jump. But there's just no way that anybody can feel confident in his ability to do so after watching him play over the following 2 seasons.
The backup plan in case Watson stumbles or gets hurt again is none other than Jameis Winston. Can Winston slide into the exact role Flacco played last year? Sure, the results will just be more erratic and hilarious since Winston's gunslinger status is so advanced that he makes Flacco look like Alex Smith or Tyrod Taylor.
It doesn't really matter if it's Watson or Winston under center. The Browns just need somebody who can throw the god damn ball effectively and make this team something more than a scrappy thorn-in-your side team that can win 13-10 games in October.
Bottom Line:
This is a really talented team with strong upside, but quite frankly, I think they used up a lot of their luck surviving all of the injuries that they endured last year and will fall back to the middle of the pack this year.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2023 Record: 10-7 (3rd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (18th season)
Notable Additions: QB Russell Wilson, QB Justin Fields, ILB Patrick Queen
Notable Departures: QB Kenny Pickett, WR Diontae Johnson, T Chukwuma Okorafor
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Arrival of Russell Wilson and Justin Fields
Over 17 games last season, the Steelers QB tandem of Kenny Pickett (12 starts), Mitch Trubisky (2 starts) and Mason Rudolph (3 starts) put together some pretty dire numbers. The trio combined to throw for 3,427 YDS/13 TD's/9 INT's and completed just 63.8% of their passes. What's even more alarming is that Rudolph's relatively impressive 3-game run at the end of the season (716 YDS, 3 TD's, 0 INT's, 76 CMP%) boosted those numbers considerably.
In typical post-prime Roethlisberger fashion, being burdened by poor QB play didn't really hurt the team until the playoffs rolled around. They actually went 10-7 with this group that ranked 25th in passing offense and had the 4th least passing attempts in the league because fucking of course they did. Despite continuing their winning ways, Omar Khan decided it was time to overhaul the QB position this offseason when he cut Trubisky and let Rudolph leave for the Titans in free agency. Pickett decided to join the fun when he requested a trade and ended up heading to the other side of Pennsylvania to back up Jalen Hurts in Philly.
With the 2023 QB room completely cleared out, it was time for Khan to bring in some contenders for the starting gig and given the Steelers roster construction and Pickett's failure, they elected to go the veteran route. In kind of an atypical move, they were able to land a pair of 2023 starters in Russell Wilson and Justin Fields to compete for the starting job on the cheap (Wilson is getting the vet minimum from the Steelers since the Broncos are still paying him a shit ton of money, Fields was acquired from the Bears for a conditional 6th round pick in the 2025 Draft that could turn into a 4th if he hits a playing time threshold and is in the last year of his rookie deal). While both of these men have their problems (Wilson's dynamism has regressed considerably over the past couple of years and Fields has been an inconsistent passer who has struggled in some crunch time situations), both of them represent an upgrade over what the Steelers have had in recent years. Wilson can still be an efficient game manager in his current physical condition as he showed with his 66.4 CMP% and 26/8 TD INT campaign in Denver last season while Fields is a terrific athlete that can provide a big play spark with his legs or his arm. Either one of these guys would provide the most juice the Steelers have had at the QB spot in at least 5 years and considering how this team has been able to grind out wins in recent years, this is the kind of development that should get people in Western PA to swing the shit out of their Terrible Towels.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Arthur Smith Being Hired as OC
Firing Matt Canada felt like a godsend for the Steelers organization. His system and playcallling were so wretched that Mike Tomlin elected to make the Steelers first in-season coaching staff move since 1941. All of the joy of being liberated from a boring, inept offense went away in short order when Arthur Smith got announced as the new OC in January. Of all the guys on the market this offseason, the Steelers went with the guy who just spent 3 years embarrassing himself on a near weekly basis? Seriously?
During his stint as the Falcons HC/offensive playcaller, Smith misused star passing game personnel (namely Kyle Pitts and Drake London), displayed a constant overreliance on running the ball and routinely bungled the playcalls, clock management, etc. in close games. Inheriting the guy that just got gleefully booted for his crimes against football is a sinking, shitty feeling as a fan, particularly when you're still reeling from the last doofus that cratered your team's offense. There's this hope that Smith will return to the form he displayed with the Titans from 2019-20, which is reasonable to an extent since he's now returning to being just an OC and the Steelers longtime run-first philosophy nicely aligns with his approach. But it needs to be kept in mind that Derrick Henry led the league in rushing during both of Smith's seasons at the helm of the Titans offense and everything Ryan Tannehill was doing right at that time was predicated off the running game. Najee Harris is an alright back, but he sure as hell isn't Henry and so far, we've yet to see Smith's offense thrive without an elite running back.
Could Smith's struggles in Atlanta over the past 2 season be at least partially chalked up to the play of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinecke? Absolutely, but that still doesn't excuse his brutal misuse of dynamic passcatchers in London and Pitts-who was used more as a decoy/blocker than a pass-catcher in each of the previous 2 season despite clearing 1,000 YDS as a rookie in 2021 and refusal to go away from the running game even when the game script demanded it. It's going to take a lot of targets to George Pickens and good game management for me to believe that Smith will be better in Pittsburgh.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Picking the Right QB and Sticking with Them
Tomlin's steadiness at the helm of this team has created a series of near guarantees when it comes to this team. The defense will be fine regardless of talent level as long as they can get after the QB and generate takeaways (which shouldn't be an issue for this team as long as T.J. Watt, Alex Highsmith and Minkah Fitzpatrick remain healthy). Efficiency be damned, this team is going to find a way to have a 1,000+ YD rusher and 10+ TD scorer leading their backfield. They'll win some games against superior teams and lose some against inferior ones in the ugliest fashion possible.
Really the only differentiator between a passable Steelers team and a good-to-great one is QB play. This is precisely why getting the QB selection right this season is so imperative. They've put together back-to-back winning with some of the most brutal QB play you'll see in this league. Just imagine what they could accomplish if they got even semi-respectable play from that position.
Fields makes more sense to me to earn the job given his age, development potential and physical gifts, but it wouldn't surprise me if Tomlin elects to go with Wilson based on his experience level. Regardless of who they choose, they need to be sure that they've selected the right guy and stick with him for as long as he's healthy. The whole QB carousel routine didn't help them last season and they should be eager to move away from that shit this year. Both of these guys have gotten enough reps in the league for people to have an idea of who they are as players, just go with the guy you think can get this team to the next level and trust him with running the operation as long as he's able to. This is a huge choice for Tomlin and his staff to make and how it plays out will likely be the difference between another respectable season and a great one.
Bottom Line:
If their QB play is above dogshit this season and they don't get wiped out by the injury bug, the Steelers have an excellent chance to return to the playoffs.
Predicted Standings:
1.Baltimore Ravens (12-5)
2.Pittsburgh Steelers (11-6)
3.Cleveland Browns (8-9)
4.Cincinnati Bengals (7-10)
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