Chicago Bears
2023 Record: 7-10 (4th in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt Eberflus (3rd season)
Notable Additions: WR Keenan Allen, S Kevin Byard, RB D'Andre Swift
Notable Departures: QB Justin Fields, S Eddie Jackson, G Cody Whitehair
Biggest Reason for Excitement: They Might Actually Be Good
I'm going through a bit of an internal crisis at the moment. Typically, this is the time of the year where I lament the current state of the Bears. This team has mostly provided me with nothing but pain, misery and disappointment during my 19 years as a fan, so gloom and doom is my default setting when thinking about or discussing them. This season, it's the polar opposite and I'm fucking SCARED.
How did I begin suffering from Bears Optimism Syndrome? Well, to be honest, it started at the end of last season. They were 3-8 heading into their Week 12 contest with the Vikings, which happened to be right before their bye. They won that game 12-10 after Cairo Santos hit a field goal as time expired that was set up by a 36-yard dart from Justin Fields to D.J. Moore and that kicked off a 4-2 run to close out the season. That might not sound all that impressive on paper, but they showed a lot of resolve over this period and were playing some of the most cohesive, intelligent football they've played in years. They completely different team than the one that started as an 0-4 doormat that couldn't hang with any of their opponents and that really all you want to see from a team that's in the early stages of a rebuild.
Then the offseason rolled around, and shit started to get really crazy. It all started with the firing of their bozo OC Luke Getsy and swift action to hire Shane Waldron as his replacement. Waldron is a Sean McVay acolyte who revived Geno Smith's career and reinvigorated a passing attack that Brian Schottenheimer had eviscerated during his 3 years in Seattle. He's had some missteps with playcalling at times and his redzone/3rd down efficiency numbers-particularly from last year-are potential causes for concern, but the odds of him being a huge upgrade over Getsy, Dowell Loggans, Bill Lazor and just about every other jabroni that's held this post over the past 20 years remain very good.
The good times kept rolling in March when they started being very aggressive in free agency. Bringing in 2x time All-Pro safety Kevin Byard as a replacement for Eddie Jackson at free safety? Awesome! He slots in great next to Jaquan Brisker and is a more consistent player than Jackson. 2023 All-Pro corner Jaylon Johnson hashing out his public issues with the front office and agreeing to a long-term deal? A very welcome surprise and well-deserved payday for one of the league's purest and most underrated true shutdown corners. Trading a 4th round pick for Keenan Allen? Wow, what an aggressive move that will provide their new QB with another proven weapon to place alongside Moore if he can stay healthy. I wasn't as crazy about the D'Andre Swift signing considering how inefficient he was last season with the Eagles and his extensive injury history, but maybe he can work well in more of a rotational role alongside the returning back tandem of Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson.
There was already a lot of excitement surrounding the draft since everybody knew Caleb Williams was arriving following the trade of Fields. While I have my reservations about the backyard style he plays and how long he holds onto the ball, this kid is a physical freak who can make absurd throw off platform throws and accurately attack every level of the field. The Bears have never had a QB prospect this highly touted before and if he pans out, Ryan Poles is going to look like a genius for dealing the #1 pick that turned out to be Bryce Young in 2023.
The surprising turn of the draft came in the lead up to their own first round pick at #9 overall. The Chargers electing to take Joe Alt at #5 and the Falcons dumbfounding selection of Michael Penix at #8 allowed top receiver prospect Rome Odunze to fall into their lap. Odunze was highly productive as a pure vertical threat/contested catch specialist at Washington, but he has some YAC/route running versatility that could be tapped into that could make him even more dangerous in the pros. Pairing a young receiver with massive upside with Williams is a brilliant move for the development of the rest of the team and I'm absurdly excited to watch them play together.
The trades for Allen and Montez Sweat left them with limited picks the rest of the way, but the 3 they made to close out their draft were also really savvy. Kiran Amegadjie's athleticism and power allowed him to clean up against Ivy League competition at Yale- which makes him the perfect developmental tackle prospect, Tory Taylor led the NCAA in punt average, attempts and overall yardage last season at Iowa and Austin Booker is a raw yet powerful pass rusher that effectively only has 1 year of college experience under his belt after barely playing at Minnesota before transferring to Kansas to earn a starting opportunity in 2023 who could turn into an impact player if he continues to build out his arsenal of rush tools.
Rounding things out was just last week when they extended Moore for 4 more years. This deal will tie Moore to the Bears through the 2029 season and by extending him early (his current deal doesn't expire until after next season), the team gains more cap flexibility moving forward. These are the kind of win-win scenarios for the team and player that almost never happen with the Bears and it's just plain weird to see an offensive player of Moore's caliber willingly commit to the team for the long-term.
Could all this optimism prove to be for naught? Of fucking course. This is the Chicago Bears we're talking about here. Failure is in their DNA. But there's just no way I can't buy into a team that appears to be building something not just for this season, but for the long haul.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Offensive Line
One major hangup that is preventing my Bears Optimism Syndrome from becoming stronger is the state of the offensive line. Quite frankly, I'm perplexed about how much the national media has pushed aside the offensive line when talking about the potential of this offense. A big part of the reason Fields is no longer the QB of this team is the play of the offensive line and the group that allowed him to get sacked 44 times in 13 games last year is more or less the same group that will be out there blocking for Williams this season.
The only change from the Bears preferred o-line starting lineup from a year ago is the subtraction of Cody Whitehair. The center/guard finally got the boot from the team that drafted him after 8 seasons following a career-worst season in 2023. He was a stabilizing force on a line that lacked continuity for a long time, but those days have passed him by, and it was time for him to go. Replacing Whitehair will be one of two new veteran pickups: Ryan Bates or Coleman Shelton. Bates has been a backup guard for the Bills since 2019 and started 15 games in 2022 before being replaced by David Edwards last year while Shelton served as the Rams starting center last year. Neither guy is a particularly exciting option, but Shelton feels like a better choice since he's actually played center in the NFL before.
As for the rest of the line, it's a whole lot of blah. Braxton Jones has been a respectable left tackle that's far outplayed his 5th round draft position, but nobody is going to mistake him for Jonathan Ogden or Joe Thomas anytime soon. Nate Davis was the polar opposite of the reliable mauler that he was with the Titans as he was a huge liability at right guard last season. 2023 1st round pick Darnell Wright wasn't all that great as a rookie as his positive contributions as a run blocker were largely undone by his struggles as a pass blocker and gift for committing costly penalties (11, tied for 6th at his position). Left guard Teven Jenkins is the only proven commodity in this group, and I wish they could clone him. It also needs to be mentioned that all of these guys save for Wright missed time with injuries last season and Jenkins has missed 4+ games in each of his first 3 NFL seasons. Training camp has reenforced their durability as Davis is already dinged up to the point where Eberflus has labeled him week-to-week and Jenkins and Bates have had scares that held them out of portions of practice. Questionable talent and a consistent lack of continuity have been the thorn in the side of this group for at least 5 years now and it's going to take a whole host of good luck and some incredible coaching from Chris Morgan-who somehow managed to be one of the few holdovers from Getsy's staff-to reverse that trend in 2024.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Defense Picking Up Where They Left Off at the End of 2023
Over the last 8 weeks, a switch flipped with the Bears defense. During this stretch, they picked up 19 takeaways including a whopping 5 games with either 3 or 4 and allowed an average of 17.1 points per game. That's a far cry from a team that allowed an average 26.9 of over their first 9 games. Some would say the turnaround coincided with the arrival of Montez Sweat-who picked up 6.5 sacks in 9 games, but as valuable as he was to them, the positive change went well beyond him. Individual players put their early season struggles behind them (T.J. Edwards, Jaquon Brisker), Eberflus got into a better rhythm as a playcaller and most importantly, they started to play with a real fire. It's a credit to Eberflus for not giving up on his guys and to the players for buying in after a tough start to the year.
Heading into 2024, they have a great opportunity to pick up where they left off. They officially hired a new DC in Eric Washington-who spent the past 4 years with the Bills and most recently served as their assistant head coach/DL coach- to fill the spot Alan Williams was forced to vacate early last year (Eberflus will continue to call the defense himself like he did following Williams' dismissal after 2 games last year) and there's a couple new starters in Byard and Gervon Dexter around, but that's about it in the change department. With the learning curves, growing pains and off-field turmoil following Williams sudden exit from the team that contributed to their early season issues in 2023 out of the way, they can now focus on growing together.
The best way for them to do that is to home in on the areas where they kept struggling while maintaining the precision and aggression they played with to close 2023. Young guys Tyrique Stevenson and Kyler Gordon are going to continue to get peppered with targets as teams shy away throwing towards Johnson and they need do to do a better job at not getting beat downfield. Somebody needs to help Sweat get after the QB. Dexter has to put forth better effort or he's going to continue to disappear for 95% of each game. Tremaine Edmunds needs to show that he's worth his contract and follow the lead of his running mate Edwards both in coverage and against the run. The foundation for one of the best defenses in the league is there. They just need to keep building that shit up so they can go from the basement to the penthouse.
Bottom Line:
If they can continue to build upon the progress they showed late last year and Caleb Williams proves to be the real deal, the Bears are going to be well-positioned to be a good football team that has a serious chance to make the playoffs this year.
Detroit Lions
2023 Record: 12-5 (1st in NFC North)
Head Coach: Dan Campbell (4th season)
Notable Additions: CB Carlton Davis, DT D.J. Reader, G Kevin Zeitler
Notable Departures: S C.J. Gardner-Johnson, G Jonah Jackson, CB Cameron Sutton
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Ben Johnson is Somehow Still Here
There was feeling of relief when Ben Johnson withdrew his name from the head coaching search last offseason and returned to the Lions for the 2023 season. After once again leading the Lions to a top 5 scoring offense and being a pretty huge part of their run to the NFC Championship game, Johnson's departure from Detroit this offseason felt inevitable. Despite being viewed as the top candidate in this coaching cycle and explicitly billed as the preferred hire for the Commanders and Panthers, Johnson will return as the Lions OC once again in 2024. Passing on a single head coaching cycle is one thing, but two in a row?!?! That's pretty much unheard of. Whether it's because of Johnson's desire to "see things through" with a Lions team that has grown considerably over the past couple seasons or simply not liking any of the situations is behind his decision is up for debate (it's probably a bit of both), but retaining an elite offensive playcaller/schemer is a tremendous stroke of good fortune for a Lions team that is still reeling from the heartbreak from their NFC Championship Game collapse. Hopefully this will provide the players with extra motivation to win this year because the odds of Johnson passing up HC opportunities for a third straight year-particularly with the potential for the Eagles and Cowboys jobs to be available-are seemingly very low.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Last Year Was Their Best Chance to Win
Watching the Lions go to the NFC Championship game was simply surreal. This team had been the downtrodden face of NFL doormats for decades now-not winning a playoff game since 1991 and then they suddenly strung together a run that got them within a game of the Super Bowl? I legitimately thought that I'd never see the day and I'm certain that the overwhelming majority of Lions fans felt the same way.
On paper, the Lions are in a great spot to keep winning. They've a pretty young roster that is in good shape for the foreseeable future following a flurry of extensions for key players (Jared Goff, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Penei Sewell, Taylor Decker, Graham Glasgow) over the past few months, Dan Campbell is a good coach that the players love to play for, and Brad Holmes has done an exceptional job of building this roster up through a combination of great drafts and the occasional smart veteran free agent pickup. However, there is a scary question that needs to be asked given this franchise's tortured history: What if last year was their best chance to win a Super Bowl and they blew it?
Could this prove to be a silly alarmist point? Absolutely. Until the NFC Championship game last year, they were about as far removed from the average Lions team as possible and the turnover from that team to this one is relatively minimal. But this is a franchise that has been tethered to bad luck, sadness and tragedy forever. Curses that span multiple decades are damn near impossible to break, especially in sports. It would be the most Lions thing in the world to squander all of this talent and never even sniff the Conference Championship, let alone the Super Bowl again.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Legit Improvement from Their Corners
The only true crippling weakness the Lions had in 2023 was their corner group. Top outside corners Cam Sutton and Jerry Jacobs in particular got absolutely obliterated-allowing a combined 1,526 YDS and 11 TD's on 113 completions/173 targets (65.2 CMP%, 104.4 QBR allowed). Their weaknesses were particularly on display in the playoffs when they allowed a pair of 145+ YD receivers (Puka Nacua-181, Mike Evans-147) over 3 games (Deebo Samuel led the 49ers with 89 YDS in their NFC Championship loss).
After this corner group proved to key contributors to their dismal 27th pass defense, a couple of big changes were made. RFA Jacobs wasn't tendered a contract offer and ended up signing with the Rams 11 days ago to compete for a backup job while Sutton got waived following a domestic violence arrest in late March (he signed the Steelers-where he previously played from 2017-22- in June and has since been suspended for 8 games as a result of the arrest). Late season fill-in starter Kindle Vildor also appears to be line to be demoted and might even be a cut candidate considering how many new faces are around now.
Following all of this shuffling, the only corner returning to a starting role is 2nd year player Brian Branch-who was generally pretty good as a rookie outside of allowing a few big plays/long TD's. Rounding the rest of the depth chart at the moment is Carlton Davis-their new projected top corner who was acquired from the Buccaneers via a trade in March, Amik Robertson-a 26-year old free agent pickup who racked up 21 starts during 4 years with the Raiders (19 of which were over the past 2 seasons and rookies Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr.-who were selected with the Lions first two picks in the draft this year at #24 and #61 overall respectively. 2023 free agent pickup Emmanuel Moseley was also expected to have a role after playing just 2 snaps last season before tearing his ACL, but he suffered a tore pec at practice on Tuesday and is likely out for the year once again.
Based on capital spent to land them, Davis and Arnold seem like the most likely options to join Branch in the starting lineup. Regardless of how it shakes out, this group does seem poised to take a step forward. Arnold and Rakestraw Jr. are the perfect corners for a Campbell-coached team given the grit and speed that they play with, Robertson showed steady improvement each year during his time with the Raiders and while he's admittedly coming off a down year, Davis was a top 15-20 corner in the league during the bulk of his stint with the Bucs. If this overhauled group of corners can do their part to elevate this previously terrible pass defense and the run defense-which was already tough and added another elite run stuffer in D.J. Reader in free agency-can remain great, the Lions defense should not only escape the bottom 10 of scoring defenses but have a real chance of sniffing the top 10-15.
Bottom Line:
Last year was an encouraging sign of what the Lions are about right now, and it would be pretty stunning if they didn't win 10+ games and contend for the NFC crown again in 2024.
Green Bay Packers
2023 Record: 9-8 (2nd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Matt LaFluer (6th season)
Notable Additions: S Xavier McKinney, RB Josh Jacobs, K Greg Joseph
Notable Departures: RB Aaron Jones, ILB De'Vondre Campbell, S Darnell Savage
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Joe Barry is Finally Gone
The numbers aren't overly damning for Joe Barry's time as Packers DC, but his time in Green Bay had to come to an end after 3 seasons. Their run D was trash for 2 straight years (26th in 2022, 28th in 2023) he didn't properly utilize his pass-rushing talent (Rashan Gary, Preston Smith) and their 3rd down defense was shockingly bad last season (25th in the league) for a team that was good against the pass and in the redzone. On top of that, their fans seem to hate him almost as much as they hated Dom Capers and Mike Pettine.
Whether or not Jeff Hafley is the right guy to elevate this pretty talented group of players is another question entirely. His NFL track record is spotty at best (he spent 6 years as a DB coach with the Buccaneers, Browns and 49ers under Greg Schiano, Pettine and Chip Kelly/Kyle Shanahan respectively) and this will be his first-year coaching in the pros after a 5-year stint in college as the Ohio State DC and Boston College HC. But for now at least, Packers fans should relish in Barry's departure while they still can.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Jordan Love's Extension Blowing Up in Their Faces
Making Love the highest paid quarterback in the league (4 years/$220 mil/$155 mil guaranteed) after just 1 season as a starter is a real leap of faith by the Packers. It was also completely necessary. They've invested a ton of time in developing this kid, he put together a mighty impressive 2023 that culminated in two strong performances in road playoff games and he's a 25 going on 26-year-old that had just 1 year remaining on his deal.
While keeping Love in the fold was a no-brainer, having to pay him so much so soon after becoming a starter opens the door for a very uncomfortable situation if last year proves to be a fluke. We've seen multiple guys in recent years stumble immediately after cashing out (Nick Foles, Carson Wentz, Russell Wilson) and it put the teams that signed them to those deals in an incredibly precarious position once it became clear that they could no longer start for that team (Daniel Jones will join this list if the Giants jettison him following this season). With the significantly higher number in guaranteed money attached to Love's deal, severing ties with him based on a performance downgrade would make those aforementioned divorces look like mild headaches by comparison. Right now, all signs are pointing towards Love being a great QB in Green Bay for a long time, but the pressure for him to deliver is going to be significant now that the Packers have a serious financial stake in him.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Jordan Love Maintaining the Level of Play He Displayed Late Last Season
When the Packers were 3-6 following a Week 10 loss last season, I thought Love's tenure in Green Bay was going to be real short. As a Bears fan, this was great news. Aaron Rodgers and Brett Favre hammered my team for decades and the mere thought of the Packers possibly enduring prolonged QB struggles like an average NFL team brought a huge smile to my face. The joy that came from entertaining this theory proved to be short lived. Love flipped the switch and became a stone-cold killer from that point on. Over the final 8 games of the regular season, the Packers went 6-2 with Love throwing 18 TD's against just 1 INT. He also put together the aforementioned pair of strong playoff performances including a legitimately flawless outing against the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round where he hung 272 YDS and 3 TD's on them on only 16 completed passes and 21 attempts.
While Love's play before this season-ending run was erratic at best, I believe that he's set up for sustained success in Green Bay. The game appeared to really slow down for him beginning in mid-November as his decision-making and accuracy improved significantly, Matt LaFluer has really proven himself to be a very good coach over the past few seasons, adding Josh Jacobs at running back should conceivably provide him with a more reliable option than the talented but oft-injured Aaron Jones and he has this unique opportunity to grow alongside a young group of pass catchers-several of whom (Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave) flashed major potential last season. If this kid does end up picking up where he left off late last season, then watch the fuck out because the Packers might fuck around and make it all the way to the Super Bowl.
Bottom Line:
As long as Jordan Love maintains the course he was on late last season, they should be really, really good.
Minnesota Vikings
2023 Record: 7-10 (3rd in NFC North)
Head Coach: Kevin O'Connell (3rd season)
Notable Additions: EDGE Jonathan Greenard, RB Aaron Jones, EDGE Andrew Van Ginkel
Notable Departures: QB Kirk Cousins, EDGE Danielle Hunter, ILB Jordan Hicks
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Long-Term Commitment from Justin Jefferson
After it became abundantly clear that Kirk Cousins wasn't going to return to the Vikings in 2024, rumors surrounding Justin Jefferson's future with the team started swirling. Several pundits around the country believed that the Vikings would go full reset mode by dealing Jefferson for a plethora of draft picks and/or that he didn't want to deal with the growing pains that tend to come from playing with a young QB. The logic behind that didn't really make sense as Jefferson had never voiced discontent with the Vikings organization and a generational talent like him would be invaluable to whoever was set to play QB for the Vikes post-Cousins. That narrative began to lose steam after the draft came and went with no movement and died for good once Jefferson signed a deal that made him the highest paid WR in the league (4 years/$140 million/$110 mil guaranteed) on June 3rd.
This is the kind of move that reaffirms the Vikings commitment to winning. Jefferson hasn't gotten less than 1,400 YDS when he's played a full season, has the most receiving YDS of any player in NFL history through 4 seasons (5,899) and set an NFL record for fewest games played (10) to reach 1,000+ YDS in his injury-shortened 2023 campaign. Letting that kind of game-altering weapon walk out the door would've been unforgivable. What's crazy to think about is that Jefferson just turned 25 in June and his best days could very well be in front of him. If his first 4 seasons prove to just be the warmup for Jefferson, he'll be considered underpaid before his new deal is up.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Secondary
It's not a secret that Brian Flores likes to blitz the shit out of his opponents. He blitzed on 47.9% of all snaps last season, which was the 10th highest rate of any team since 2006 according to ESPN's Stats and Information. That approach provided mixed results as the group finished tied for 20th in sacks (43), but 9th in run defense. Given Flores' love of bringing pressure, the Vikings invested heavily in pass rushers this offseason. Free agent pickups Jonathan Greenard and Andrew Van Ginkel are both coming off career years and they made Dallas Turner-widely believed to be the top edge rusher in this class-the third defensive player off the board at #17 overall.
Attempting to bolster the pass rush isn't just the strategy for upping the sack totals, it's apparently also their approach to fixing the secondary. That's right, despite finishing with the 24th ranked pass defense in 2023, the Vikings dedicated no significant assets to bringing in secondary help. Veteran corners Shaq Griffin-who was cut mid-season by the Texans last year before finishing out the year with the Panthers, Duke Shelley-who is returning to Minnesota after spending last year with the Rams, Fabian Moreau-who allowed 628 YDS on 39 receptions (60 targets, 65 CMP%) in just 11 starts with the Broncos last year- and Bobby McCain-who almost exclusively played on special teams last year with the Giants are the only new faces here and the latter three signed at the end of July! Digging through the scrap heap for veteran journeyman to put alongside de facto top corner Byron Murphy so close to the start of the season does not inspire a lot of confidence in the entire operation-especially when it comes to the standing of young corners Andrew Booth Jr. and Akayleb Evans, who've struggled to earn playing time in each of their first two NFL seasons.
Safety is a little bit less of a problem as Harrison Smith, Josh Metellus and especially Camryn Byum are coming off solid enough years, but there's still some real room for error with this group. Smith is at the age (35) where his play could bottom out at any point, Metellus really didn't do much before last season and the depth behind Bynum is concerning as Lewis Cine has barely played since entering the league in 2022. Playing constant zone coverage on the back end can only cover up for so many talent problems and the failure to invest in the back end of the defense could thwart Flores' plans to further elevate this defense in his second year with the Vikings.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: QB Play
There are really only 4 true QB competitions heading into 2024 (Broncos, Patriots, Raiders, Vikings) and this one may be most interesting of all. Unlike the other aforementioned teams, the Vikings have an elite offensive line that will be able to prevent whoever starts from getting killed and as Kevin O'Connell proved during last year's relentless QB carousel, he's capable of putting any QB that's plugged into his system in the best situation to win. Adding to the intrigue are the guys competing for the gig. Sam Darnold may be the single greatest case of a top QB prospect being dragged down by shitty coaching and o-line play/weapons in recent memory-which would make this situation an interesting test for his skills while rookie J.J. McCarthy has been touted as the kind of high floor prospect that can start right away.
Regardless of who gets the nod, they need to come in and run the offense efficiently. They have dynamic weapons at receiver in Jefferson and Jordan Addison (T.J. Hockenson is out indefinitely as he recovers from the torn ACL and MCL he suffered in late December). They have a 1-2 punch at RB in Aaron Jones and Ty Chandler that is shifty and explosive. They have the aforementioned powerhouse offensive line that will provide them with the time they need to make plays. It's sincerely one of the best situations in the league for a QB to walk into, all they need to do is step up and make plays and this team will be in business.
Bottom Line:
Kevin O'Connell had this team playing competitive football until about Week 16 despite having the trio of Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall playing QB. There's no reason to think they aren't capable of putting together a winning record if Darnold and/or McCarthy are even half decent this year.
Predicted Standings:
1.Green Bay Packers (12-5)
2.Detroit Lions (11-6)
3.Chicago Bears (10-7)
4.Minnesota Vikings (9-8)
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