Quarterback: Anthony Richardson (Colts) (ADP: Yahoo: 46.1 ESPN: 50.8)
The logic behind Richardson being a QB1 option is sound in theory. Dual-threat quarterbacks are extremely valuable in fantasy, especially if they can put up TD's in the rushing game at a high clip like Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen have in recent years. There's one huge problem with Richardson that could easily knock him out of that conversation before he really gets the opportunity to enter it: the kid plays with an elite level of recklessness. He appeared in just 4 games last year as a rookie after a sustaining a string of injures that culminated in him getting season-ending shoulder surgery last October and his habit of actively running into instead of avoiding contact as a rusher is going to make him more suspectable to sustaining injuries than the bulk of his peers as long as he continues to do it. On top of the heightened injury risk, his limited playing time thus far makes him a complete enigma of a player and he wasn't sharp or accurate enough as a thrower when he was on the field last year to be confident in his ability to be a high-level passer in 2024. Kyler Murray is going a full round later than Richardson on average and comes with far less question marks attached to him, so I'd recommend rolling with him if you're looking to take a dual-threat QB in the first five rounds and miss out on Allen, Hurts or Lamar Jackson.
Dishonorable Mentions: Joe Burrow (Bengals), Dak Prescott (Cowboys), Aaron Rodgers (Jets)
Running Back: Isiah Pacheco (Chiefs) (ADP: Yahoo: 20.6 ESPN: 19.8)
The rapid erasure of no-brainer elite fantasy running back options over the past few years has caused the value chart at this former premium fantasy position to get just plain silly. Case in point: Isiah Pacheco finding himself in the RB1 conversation as a late 2nd round pick this season. Even if he does indeed finish as an RB1 this season-which is well within the realm of possibility given the current landscape of the position, what factors outside of playing time make him worthy of being selected so high? He didn't even hit 1,200 scrimmage YDS or 10+ total TD's last season (1,179 and 9 TD's were his exact numbers), doesn't have terrific pass catching numbers (44 receptions last year, 13 as a rookie) and most importantly, plays on an established offense that didn't even favor the run last season when they had one of the worst receiving corps in the league! Pacheco is a good back that has provided a good return on investment in back-to-back seasons, but his ceiling is nowhere near high enough to consider investing a top 20-ish pick on.
Dishonorable Mentions: Jonathan Taylor (Colts), Josh Jacobs (Packers), Alvin Kamara (Saints)
Wide Receiver: CeeDee Lamb (Cowboys) (ADP: Yahoo: 2.9 ESPN: 4.0)
Lamb is currently holding out for a new deal and has yet to report for Cowboys training camp. If a deal gets done in the next week or so and he shows up in good shape, then disregard this blurb and take him in the top 5. If an extension doesn't get done, the best-case scenario is that he reports right before Week 1 and is shaking off rust for an indefinite period before returning to form sometime in October or November. The worst case is that he sits out until the Week 8 reporting date deadline that is required for the current contract year to be honored and grant him the freedom to hit free agency after the year and 2024 is a wash. Selecting Lamb under these circumstances would be a completely unnecessary gamble that would have you playing catchup for the rest of the draft to atone for your questionable 1st round selection.
Dishonorable Mentions: Marvin Harrison Jr. (Cardinals), Davante Adams (Raiders), Tank Dell (Texans)
Tight End: Mark Andrews (Ravens) (ADP: Yahoo: 47.8 ESPN: 42.2)
This one pains me to say as Andrews has been a longtime favorite player of mine. He just has a gift for getting hurt seemingly every season at this juncture of his career and at his current ADP in the mid-to-late 4th round, his elite connection with Lamar Jackson and guaranteed key role in the Ravens passing attack isn't enough to cancel out the high probability that he'll be on the shelf for a notable portion of the season.
Dishonorable Mentions: Dalton Schultz (Texans), Cole Kmet (Bears), Pat Friermuth (Steelers)
Defense/Special Team: Buffalo (ADP: Yahoo: 127.5 ESPN: 164.8)
All of the turnover in the secondary along with Matt Milano suffering yet another major injury (torn bicep) in camp yesterdays puts the Bills D/ST in a really precarious spot heading into 2024. While Sean McDermott could very well get this group to perform at a high level, they're not worth investing in until the ambiguity surrounding them gets cleared up after at least a few weeks of regular season action.
Dishonorable Mentions: Miami, Philadelphia, Detroit
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