Denver Broncos
2023 Record: 8-9 (3rd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (2nd season)
Notable Additions: EDGE John Franklin-Myers, WR Josh Reynolds, LB Cody Barton
Notable Departures: QB Russell Wilson, S Justin Simmons, WR Jerry Jeudy
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Bo Nix
To say the Russell Wilson era in Denver didn't go as planned would be a massive understatement. The trade for Wilson and subsequent massive contract extension (5 years/$245 mil) they signed him to will be weighing the Broncos organization down for years to come. The divorce between the Broncos and Wilson following the conclusion of the 2023 was telegraphed last December when Sean Payton abruptly benched him for Jarrett Stidham in Week 17 so he wouldn't hit a playing time threshold that triggered a bonus for him. Wilson's parting gift to Denver upon his release in March: an $85 million dead cap hit in 2024 and his contract remaining on the books through the 2028 season (that's right gang, the extension starts this season!!!). How George Paton remains employed with the team is completely beyond comprehension, particularly in the modern NFL where executives and coaches have been fired for far less damaging moves.
Heading into 2024 with Stidham penciled in as their starting QB, the Broncos didn't have many paths they could go down to add another QB that could compete to start. They couldn't sign a veteran of any consequence given their cap situation and their limited draft capital effectively locked them into a situation where they were taking whatever QB remained on the board when they picked at #12 overall or be forced to commit to starting Stidham for a full season and try their luck in the 2025 draft. The former ended up playing out as they pulled the semi-shocking move of taking Oregon product Bo Nix-who was a 2nd round prospect in the eyes of most evaluators-at #12. Nix was never anything more than a solid QB during his time at Auburn and Oregon, which earned him a lot of heat since he had been starting since he was a true freshman in 2019 (he currently holds the record for most starts by a QB in NCCA history with 61) and put a cap on his pro projections.
In recent weeks, a lot of the skepticism surrounding Nix has quieted down quite a bit. He's displayed full command of the offense during the preseason games, been accurate and decisive with his throws and efficiently moved the offense down the field on most of the drives he was out there for. Unsurprisingly, his performances this summer led to him officially being named the Broncos Week 1 starter last week. As deeply unsexy as Nix was coming out of the draft, his unflashy style is exactly what made him so appealing to Payton. Nix's presence pretty much allows them to run the same simple, checkdown-driven offense they did with Wilson last year, except with the added threat of mobility and a better handling of pressure than Wilson at this juncture of his career and not having a "star" QB allows the spotlight to return to him and his offensive genius reputation. This team was able to win 8 games last year with the burden of having Wilson under center. The downgrades on the roster overall may prevent them from getting to that threshold again, but this offense could very well improve with Nix running it.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Wide Receivers
One of the biggest reasons why the Broncos appear to be in a position to regress in 2024 despite Wilson leaving is what they have at the receiver spot. The main source of concern is how they're going to go about replacing Jerry Jeudy. Jeudy may have failed to live up to his 1st round draft pick status (him going just 2 picks before CeeDee Lamb in 2020 will haunt this organization forever) and pissed off hardass Payton for whatever reason (if you recall, they made a strong effort to trade him at the deadline last year over his feuding with Payton), but he was at least a proven, functional NFL starter-which is more than can be said about his potential replacements.
Topping the list of Jeudy replacements is journeyman Josh Reynolds. The 8th year pro is coming off his clear best season since his 2020 mini-breakout with the Rams-putting up 40 receptions for 608 YDS and 5 TD's across 17 games. The major caveat with those numbers is that he did that while lining up alongside Amon-Ra St.Brown, Sam LaPorta, David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit. He will not have the luxury of being the beneficiary of such soft coverage on a team that boasts literally 1 proven threat among its pass-catchers and backs (Courtland Sutton).
They are also seemingly putting a lot on the plate of Tim Patrick. The veteran slot receiver has been a nice little weapon for the Broncos offense in the past, clearing 700+ YDS and 5+ TD's in 2020 and 2021. Patrick hasn't gotten the chance to build off those campaigns as he hasn't seen even a snap of regular season action since 2021 after suffering a torn ACL and torn Achillies in the opening days of training camp in 2022 and 2023 respectively. While his long-overdue return to action in the preseason has showed some encouraging signs, he's going to be 31 in November and it remains to be seen if he can get open and contribute when the intensity/effort level ratchets up considerably in the regular season. (Update: Patrick got cut!)
Competing for playing time behind Reynolds is a pretty ragtag group of young guys headed up by Marvin Mims Jr. and rookie Troy Franklin. Mims Jr. started off his rookie year in 2023 red hot-logging 9 REC for 242 YDS and a TD across his first 4 games before tailing off in a big way over the final 12 games he played in and finishing the year with a 22 REC/377 YDS/TD line.
Franklin was a polarizing prospect (it's been a minute since we've seen a receiver that was considered anywhere between a 1st and 6th round talent depending on who you talked to) whose established rapport with Nix from their time together at Oregon likely landed him on the team. Early impressions for Franklin in the pros have been pretty poor as he was being considered a cut candidate as recently as last week, which is awful for a high 4th round pick.
Trotting out such a questionable set of WR's in an offense led by a rookie QB is playing with fire and arguably proof that Payton has learned nothing from his past history with the Saints where his offenses were regularly held back by running the passing game through just one guy.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Young Players Performing
The crushing reality about the Broncos right now is that Wilson's comically high dead cap hit is going to be impacting their ability to add and re-sign players to at least some degree over the next 5 seasons. Since they won't be able to afford to re-sign most of their players (see this offseason where they couldn't retain center Lloyd Cushenberry after a career year) or go after impact free agents, they have to hit on draft picks at a higher-than-average clip.
Since Patton took over in 2021, they have 2 confirmed hits (Patrick Surtain II, Quinn Minerz) and 1 that's up for debate (Baron Browning). All 3 of those guys were selected in 2021 and only Minerz is confirmed to be in the fold long-term after inking an extension in July. That's pretty bleak shit for a team whose young guys are of such heightened importance to their success level in the near future.
2024 will be a deeply important year for Patton as several of his draft picks/UDFA pickups will now be joining the starting lineup after this year's round of roster shuffling. Nix (quarterback), Luke Wattenberg (center), Riley Moss (outside corner) and Ja'Quan McMillian (slot corner) are all slated to become full-starters for the first time this year. Wattenberg and Moss are of particular concern as they were both relatively unsung draft picks with minimal playing time thus far that are being forced to step into starting roles.
In addition to the first-time starters, young guys like Browning (outside linebacker), Jonathon Cooper (outside linebacker), Greg Dulcich (tight end), Javonte Williams (running back), Nik Bonitto (outside linebacker/pass rushing specialist), and free agent pickup Brandon Jones (free safety) will all play key roles. All of these guys are enigmas at this point of their careers and making reasonable projections about them in either direction really isn't possible. Payton, particularly during his Super Bowl run in 2009 and in the late 2010's, found success by building a strong young corps. Doing the same thing in Denver is his ticket to proving the doubters wrong and making his unretirement from coaching a worthwhile endeavor and we'll find out whether they have one here or not in the coming months.
Bottom Line:
How the young players on this team play will be the difference between this team being in the running for a high draft pick and competing for a Wild Card spot.
Kansas City Chiefs:
2023 Record: 11-6 (1st in AFC West)
Head Coach: Andy Reid (12th season)
Notable Additions: WR Hollywood Brown, P Matt Araiza, WR JuJu Smith-Schuster
Notable Departures: CB L'Jarius Sneed, P Tommy Townsend, LB Willie Gay
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Hollywood Brown's Arrival
Look, I'm no fan of Marquise "Hollywood" Brown. I thought he had no business being a 1st round pick when he was coming out of Oklahoma in 2019 and nothing about his play in the NFL has convinced me otherwise. He disappears whenever he's greeted with contact, doesn't have elite traits beyond his speed and has a knack for timely, ugly drops. With all of this being said, Brown is such a huge upgrade over what the Chiefs had at receiver last season that his arrival should be greeted with a small parade around the team's facility. He won't lose track of the ball in mid-air like Marquez Valdez-Scantling, runs cleaner routes than Mecole Hardman and won't line up offsides or knock the ball into the opponents' hands like Kadarius Toney. He's a competent, unremarkable wide receiver and that should make him a legit weapon in a Kansas City offense that rewards just about anybody who can clear that low bar for a professional football player.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Rashee Rice's Productive Offseason
Rashee Rice, what the hell were you thinking man? All he had to do to remain one of the most promising players to come out of the 2023 draft was to not be an idiot and/or a complete piece of shit and he did both of those things when he committed a hit-and-run in downtown Dallas back in late March while allegedly street racing a friend of his that spawned a chain reaction crash involving four other vehicles that left two people hospitalized and left a couple of others with minor injuries.
So far, he's faced zero real consequences. Rice's criminal case which includes 8 felony charges is pending, and the league has yet to discipline him, nor do they seem poised to as the Chiefs kick off the NFL regular season a week from tomorrow night. My advice to Rice is simple: Stay away from driving, take a seminar on critical thinking or some shit and learn from this boneheaded incident that luckily didn't kill anybody and just get back to playing WR for the best team in football man. You're going to have a good career if you don't end up in jail!
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Keep Delivering
What else is there to say about the Chiefs at this point? They've won 3 Super Bowls in the last 5 years, have Advanced to atlLeast the AFC Championship Game every year since Patrick Mahomes became the starter in 2018 and basically just killed any lingering questions surrounding their greatness during their Super Bowl run last season that included multiple road wins and an all-time gusty comeback victory to win the Lombardi over the 49ers. We know exactly who they are and what they're capable of at this point.
Are there a few areas of concern surrounding them? Of course. Intending to start a raw rookie in Kingsley Suamatia at left tackle is a hell of a gamble considering their past struggles when not having at least a semi-respectable veteran lined up at that spot, any discipline being handed down towards Rice this season would be devastating to the functionality of their passing attack and reshuffling the corner group once again following the trade of L'Jarius Sneed opens up the possibility of them finally getting burned by their refusal to pay their top guy. But at the end of the day, their track record of overcoming adversity has been remarkable and I'm not going to suddenly start betting against them now. Their offense is run by a future Hall of Fame coach who remains on the cutting edge of playcalling/scheming at 66. Steve Spagnuolo has turned their defense into one of the most relentlessly physical and aggressive yet disciplined units in the league. They have a quarterback with a dynamic set of physical tools and level of killer instinct that we've only seen a few times in history at this position. As long as these guys keep delivering, the Chiefs are going to be great and if the Chiefs keep being great, their dynasty is going to be really difficult to bring down.
Bottom Line:
Sorry if this is a hot take but I think the Chiefs are going to be in contention for the Super Bowl this year and have a very good chance of winning it.
Las Vegas Raiders
2023 Record: 8-9 (2nd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Antonio Pierce (1st full-time season)
Notable Additions: DT Christian Wilkins, QB Gardner Minshew, G Cody Whitehair
Notable Departures: RB Josh Jacobs, QB Jimmy Garoppolo, T Jermaine Eluemunor
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Antonio Pierce Being Promoted to HC Full-Time
Mark Davis prevented another Rich Bisaccia situation from happening in Vegas when he officially promoted interim head coach Antonio Pierce to full time head coach in late January. Pierce is the first coach since Doug Marrone in Jacksonville back in 2017 to be elevated from interim to head coach, which is huge since it felt like it may never happen again after what transpired with Bisaccia and Steve Wilks over the past few seasons. While the Raiders record with Pierce wasn't overly impressive (5-4), the team embraced him in a way that they never did with Josh McDaniels and that led to a considerably higher level of play than what we saw from them over the opening 8 games of the 2023 season when McDaniels was at the helm. We'll find out in due time if they made the right move, but in the interim, Pierce's promotion keeps buy-in on this team high and a strong defensive coordinator in Patrick Graham around to keep building a group that is quietly becoming one of the stouter units in the league and should be in line to improve this year now that star interior defensive lineman Christian Wilkins is on their roster.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Luke Getsy Being Hired as OC
Most people probably didn't even notice this narrative being spun this offseason and rightfully so, it wouldn't be on the radar of the average football fan for reasons that will be obvious in a matter of moments: There was a concerted effort among some prominent members of the NFL media (particularly from Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated) to pin Luke Getsy's struggles as Bears OC over the past 2 seasons entirely on Justin Fields. This narrative was supported but not officially confirmed by the heavy interest Getsy drew in offensive coordinator searches around the league during this hiring cycle which culminated in his hiring by the Raiders.
As a Bears fan, Fields being the scapegoat for Getsy's struggles drove me completely fucking bananas. About the only positive thing Getsy did for the Bears offense during his time there was call some designed runs for Fields, which was nice after Matt Nagy absolutely refused to do so in 2021. Other than that, his offense an absolute nightmare to watch. He often refuses to dial up passing plays that are more than 0.3 YDS downfield, doesn't know to scheme receivers open and really shows zero feel for the game with the way that he handles his playcalling. I personally believe that he's a bozo coach whose only getting another crack at being an OC because he's still benefitting from the magical Packers/Aaron Rodgers aura that has allowed the likes of Nathaniel Hackett to remain employed despite their stunning incompetence. Maybe getting away from the Bears will prove to be some kind of magic elixir for Getsy, but I honestly think he'll embrace his archaic dumpoff pass/rushing the ball tendencies even more now that he has a checkdown magnet with limited athleticism in Gardner Minshew as his quarterback and this will go down as one of the worst coordinator hires in recent history.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting the Run Game Going
As I alluded to above, rushing the ball is a signature of Getsy's offense and to be fair to him, it worked out very well in Chicago as the Bears rushing offense (unsurprisingly) finished 1st in 2022 and 2nd in 2023 (they were 2nd in rushing attempts in each of these seasons). Now, having an elite rushing threat in Fields-who ran for over 1,700 YDS over these 2 seasons and a limited passing attack were huge factors in these totals, but regardless, they had a ground game that was varied, persistent and consistent every single week.
Getsy's arrival in Vegas is coming at a time where their rushing game is in desperate need of a boost. Josh Jacobs crashed back to Earth in a major way following an excellent 2022 campaign, rushing for just 805 YDS on 233 carries over 13 games (an anemic average of 3.5 YDS per carry) and his lackluster efforts spearheaded a ground game that ranked 30th in the league in 2023. Re-establishing the ground game is of particular importance given Minshew's status as a game manager good for 18-25 passing attempts per game whose success with the Colts last season was largely brought on by their 10th ranked rushing offense.
With Jacobs leaving for the Packers in free agency and Minshew being not being much of a rusher himself (344 YDS is his career high and that was during his rookie year in Jacksonville in 2019), Getsy's rushing game restoration efforts will be centered around Zamir White and Alexander Mattison. White is currently slated to start after filling in for Jacobs during the final 4 games of last season. He fared pretty well in these games, clearing 100 YDS on the ground twice and averaging 4.67 YDS per carry. Much has been made about his heavy usage in the preseason being a sign that his job is in danger, but nobody from Mattison to Ameer Abdullah to rookie Dylan Laube has looked good enough during this stretch to pose a clear imminent threat to his workload.
Mattison, however, does make for an interesting complementary piece. He performed admirably as Dalvin Cook's backup/fill-in starter from 2019-22 and has logged 19 career starts including 13 in 2023. He does represent a bit of redundancy as he runs in a similar deliberate, unflashy manner as White and his dismal 2023 where the Vikings reluctantly kept him on as starter until Ty Chandler finally took the job from him late in the year was a damning strike against his ability to handle a full workload, but Getsy looks to rotate backs a bit and he should fare at least slightly better in a return to the 1B/3rd down back role he inherited during the bulk of his time in Minnesota.
There's also the fair question of whether or not the offensive line is equipped to handle this inevitable shift to a run-driven attack. Run blocking was their weakness as a group last year and they're returning 4 of 5 starters from their final 2023 lineup (Kolton Miller, Andre James, Dylan Parham, Thayer Munford) with the only new starter being Cody Whitehair at right guard-who can't be relied on to even make onto the field for kickoff, let alone block well at this point in his career. Maybe new OL coach James Cregg-who spent the past 2 years with the 49ers-will come over with some pointers from Trent Williams and co. that will unlock something these guys didn't have last year and give Minshew the ground game he needs to thrive.
Bottom Line:
While the Raiders are strong enough on defense to keep things interesting, I don't have much faith in their ability to make this offense work with Gardner Minshew and Luke Getsy at the helm.
Los Angeles Chargers
2023 Record: 5-12 (4th in AFC West)
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (1st season)
Notable Additions: RB Gus Edwards, EDGE Bud Dupree, C Bradley Bozeman
Notable Departures: WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, C Corey Linsley (retired)
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Jim Harbaugh
Following the ouster of Marty Schottenheimer, the Spanos family has made a habit of not paying head coaches top dollar. Let's take a quick look at the murder's row of coaches that didn't command high salaries that have held the Chargers top job since Schottenheimer was axed after the 2006 season:
Norv Turner
Mike McCoy
Anthony Lynn
Brandon Staley
Only Turner and Lynn finished their tenures with winning records and the team made 6 playoff appearances over these 17 seasons-wracking up a 5-6 overall record. Talk about great value on return!
Spanos' track record of bargain shopping for head coaches is what made the hiring of Jim Harbaugh so unexpected. It was going to take a fat fucking check for Harbaugh to leave the college ranks behind and while his NFL return was inevitable, it's shocking that Spanos was the one that made it happen.
The hiring of Harbaugh also signals that Spanos is sick of the status quo with the Chargers after almost 2 straight decades of underachieving (GM Tom Telesco also got fired this offseason after 11 years on the job). While Harbaugh comes with plenty of personal baggage (more on that in a minute), his resume is incredible. It's become an overplayed cliche to refer to him as a guy who's won everywhere he's been, but there really isn't a more succinct way to sum up his coaching accomplishments. He turned San Diego University into a D1A powerhouse, brought Stanford from the basement of the PAC-12 all the way to the BCS, guided the 49ers to their 1st Super Bowl appearance since the days when Steve Young was under center and ended Michigan's run of being a perineal disappointment by leading them to their first National Championship since 1997. Combating the immense institutional stench of the Chargers organization is a tough fight that might be too much for any coach to overcome, but if anybody can, it's the guy that's changed the culture and won at every single stop he's made at the 3 highest levels of competitive football in the United States.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Jim Harbaugh
Let's not waste any time: Harbaugh comes with a level of baggage that is basically unmatched in the modern coaching rankings. His last 2 coaching stops with the 49ers and Michigan ended in a 5-alarm fire for very different reasons. In San Francisco, his hardass routine began to wear on everybody from his players to GM Trent Baalke after just 4 seasons, so they shitcanned him after an 8-8 season that followed 3 straight appearances in the NFC Championship Game and the aforementioned Super Bowl trip. At Michigan, he got embroiled in several controversies including a string of recruiting violations and cheating allegations that got him suspended last year, may lead to the stripping of Michigan's title and is believed to be the primary reason he opted to go to the NFL this year after turning down several previous offers to make his pro coaching comeback. Mind you this man was WINNING at a high clip, and everybody still had enough of him. I shudder to think of what kind of bedlam would be unleashed if Harbaugh was going through his daily grit routine and the team wasn't winning.
Then, there's bizarrely underdiscussed issue of Harbaugh being out of NFL for a full fucking decade. Do you know much the NFL has changed in a decade? Harbaugh doesn't seem to think so as he's hashing through his "building a bully" talking points and constructing rosters like he's preparing to go against Rex Ryan, Tom Coughlin and Jeff Fisher every week. What if his whole "when they go for speed and athleticism, we punch them in the mouth with TOUGHNESS" routine gains no traction and the teams with superior talent win? Then, you're just stuck with the angry guy with the Wal-Mart khakis on that's preaching about the importance of packing your hard hat and lunch pail for game day while the Chiefs are kicking their teeth in for the 12th consecutive time because no one can stop Mahomes, Greg Roman's wing-T formation has yielded 109 total yards of offense against Steve Spagnuolo's defense and Joe Alt is turning into the next Joe Thomas-racking up All-Pros on a garbage team while Malik Nabers is putting up 1,500+ YDS every year in East Rutherford. Expecting Harbaugh's whole schtick to keep playing simply on the grounds of him not failing yet is completely asinine. The NFL has passed plenty of great coaches by before. Why it would be shocking if Harbaugh was next on that list?
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Making Stops on Defense
As I just outlined above, Harbaugh's way of doing business meant radically changing the personnel the Chargers had on their roster and that mostly meant cutting bait with offensive talent. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, Gerald Everett, Jaylen Guyton and Joshua Kelley all got sent their walking papers upon or shortly after Harbaugh's arrival. Replacing them will be the likes of Gus Edwards, J.K. Dobbins, D.J. Chark, Will Dissly, Hayden Hurst and rookie Ladd McConkey. Pair these names with the few other stragglers left over from the 2023 squad (Joshua Palmer, Quention Johnston, Derius Davis) and Roman running the offense and you have an offense that is not scaring a single fucking soul despite having the dynamic Justin Herbert under center.
What Harbaugh is setting this team up to do is to win games on defense and in theory, it's not an awful idea. This group has legit a solid core of holdover talent at all 3 levels of the defense (Khalil Mack, Joey Bosa, Derwin James, Asante Samuel Jr., Alohi Gilman, Tuli Tuipulotu) and a lot of their issues were caused more by Brandon Staley's staggering ineptitude than any actual talent deficiency. On top of that, their 3rd down (16th) and redzone efficiency numbers (13th) were pretty good relative to their bad overall finishes in several key areas (24th in scoring defense, 30th in passing defense, 24th in passing TD's allowed, 26th in rushing TD's allowed) and they have some pass rushing juice as Mack, Bosa and Tuipulotu combined for 28 sacks, 42 QB hits and 74 pressures across 43 games (Bosa only in 9 games *gasp*).
DC Jesse Minter's primary objective for 2024 has to be finding a way to turn these promising pieces into a more cohesive unit while simultaneously improving their glaring issues. Blitzing even more than Staley did a year ago (they ranked 8th in the league with 31.5% blitz rate on opposing dropbacks) seems like a strong potential jumping off point for their retooling efforts considering Minter's track record at Michigan and time spent with the Ravens working alongside Wink Martindale-who had the 2nd highest rate with the Giants last season. Putting less pressure on their DB's while more prominently featuring their potentially elite pass-rushing trio feels like the kind of thing that lay down the foundation for something special.
Minter is also going to have tap into his DB coach past to work on their corner group-which was an abject disaster last year outside of Samuel Jr. The good news is that their biggest liability from a year ago in Michael Davis is now on the Commanders. The bad news is that he's expected to be replaced by Kristian Fulton-who allowed a 75.5% CMP a year ago and posted a dismal PFF grade of 44.4 with the Titans last year. Slot corner Ja'Sir Taylor also needs to be coached up significantly after faring pretty poorly during his first stretch of significant game action in 2023-whiffing 5 tackles and allowing 401 YDS on just 31 receptions.
Linebacker may prove to be the key to this whole new look defense as they're trading in the veteran pairing of Murray and Kendricks for a projected starting duo of 2nd year LB Daiyan Henley and journeyman Denzel Perryman (Troy Dye and rookie Junior Colson could also be in contention for the job). Henley and Perryman have this interesting yin-and-yang dynamic with Henley being a hyper athletic box safety-type player and Perryman being more of the imposing old school thumper type. Having two vastly different types of linebackers on the field at the same time is a completely different look than what you'll see elsewhere in the league, and it could allow the Chargers to get creative with how they deploy coverages, run gap assignments, etc.
This is all a very drawn-out way of saying the Chargers need to make some damn defensive stops or this entire Harbaugh experiment may be doomed before it even really begins.
Bottom Line:
Will be they be better than last year under Staley? Definitely. Harbaugh's game management skills are good, and he's probably already thrown the entire analytics department into the Pacific Ocean. Whether or not they'll be "good" is another question entirely. Their offense has such a profound lack of talent that I just can't them being better than like 25th in the league even if the o-line takes another step forward with Joe Alt at RT and Greg Roman's post-SF track record as an OC outside of his first couple years with Lamar Jackson in Baltimore is just awful.
Predicted Standings:
1.Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
2.Las Vegas Raiders (8-9)
3.Los Angles Chargers (7-10)
4.Denver Broncos (6-11)
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