Thursday, January 23, 2025

January R-Rated Comedies (2000-2025) Ranked

On this special edition of "Ranked", I'm ranking January R-Rated Comedies Released from 2000-2025 in honor of "One of Them Days"-which is in theaters now. 

January R-Rated Comedies (2000-Present) Ranked:

17.Movie 43 (D)

16.Take the 10 (C-)

15.Like a Boss (C-)

14.Mortdecai (C-)

13.House Party (C)

12.Shotgun Wedding (C+)

11.You People (C+)

10.Fifty Shades of Black (C+)

9.The Underdoggs (B-)

8.No Strings Attached (B-)

7.Youth in Revolt (B-)

6.Self Reliance (B)

5.Dirty Grandpa (B)

4.That Awkward Moment (B)

3.Next Friday (B)

2.The Wedding Ringer (B)

1.Grandma's Boy (A)

Top Dog: Grandma's Boy (2006)

A real degenerate cult classic for people that were between the ages of 12 and 25 in 2006, Grandma's Boy is a tremendous stoner comedy with immaculate hangout vibes, delightfully stupid gags and Linda Cardellini doing Linda Cardellini shit (being effortlessly charming, funny and hot). 

Bottom Feeder: Movie 43 (2013)

When people go off about January being a dumping ground for the biggest pieces of shit studios have kicking around in their vaults, they're referring to stuff like Movie 43. The only thing that's funny about this anthology comedy that features segments directed by the likes of future Oscar winner Peter Farrelly, James Gunn and Elizabeth Banks-who also stars in Gunn's sketch-is that someone was able to convince a small army of stars (Hugh Jackman, Halle Berry, Emma Stone, Gerard Butler, Kate Winslet, Naomi Watts, Richard Gere and Uma Thurman are among the 30+ recognizable faces that show up here) to appear in a collection of hacky gross-out bits that should've been quietly dumped onto YouTube.  

Most Underrated: The Wedding Ringer (2015)

I actually just rewatched this on Tuesday for the first time since I saw it in theaters 10 years ago and outside of a handful of questionable jokes, it's held up pretty well. Kevin Hart and Josh Gad make for a strong comedy odd couple, there's a surprising warmth underneath all of the vulgarity and the eulogy and family lunch scenes got me to have extended laughing fits.  

Most Overrated: None

We're dealing with a crop of movies here that mostly didn't do well at the box office or enjoy any kind of enduring popularity, which makes it impossible for me to label any of them overrated. 

Wednesday, January 22, 2025

Oscar Nomination Predictions

After a couple of delays on account of the wildfires currently devastating Los Angeles, the nominations for this year's Oscars will be announced tomorrow morning at 8:30 AM EST by Rachel Sennott and Bowen Yang. Here are the people and films I expect to be competing for the most prestigious awards in American cinema.   

Best Picture:

Anora

The Brutalist

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

A Real Pain

Sing Sing

The Substance

Wicked

Locks: Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Perez, The Substance, Wicked

Toss-Ups: Dune: Part Two, A Real Pain, Sing Sing

Other Possible Contenders: All We Imagine as Light, I'm Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, September 5

Best Director:

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Perez

Sean Baker, Anora

Edward Berger, Conclave

Brady Corbet, The Brutalist

Coralie Fargeat, The Substance

Locks: Jacques Audiard, Sean Baker, Edward Berger, Brady Corbet

Toss-Up: Coralie Fargeat

Other Possible Contenders: Jon M. Chu (Wicked), James Mangold (A Complete Unknown), Mohammad Rasoulouf (The Seed of the Sacred Fig), RaMell Ross (Nickel Boys), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Two)

Best Actor:

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist

Timothee Chalamet, A Complete Unknown

Daniel Craig, Queer

Colman Domingo, Sing Sing

Ralph Fiennes, Conclave  

Locks: Adrien Brody, Timothee Chalamet, Ralph Fiennes

Toss-Ups: Daniel Craig, Colman Domingo

Other Possible Contenders: Jesse Eisenberg (A Real Pain), Hugh Grant (Heretic), Glen Powell (Hit Man), Sebastian Stan (The Apprentice), Sebastian Stan (A Different Man)

Best Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked

Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez

Mikey Madison, Anora

Demi Moore, The Substance

Fernanda Torres, I'm Still Here 

Locks: Karla Sofia Gascon, Mikey Madison, Demi Moore

Toss-Ups: Cynthia Erivo, Fernanda Torres

Other Possible Contenders: Pamela Anderson (The Last Showgirl), Marianne Jean-Baptiste (Hard Truths), Angelina Jolie (Maria), Nicole Kidman (Babygirl), Saoirse Ronan (The Outrun)

Best Supporting Actor:

Yura Borisov, Anora

Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain

Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown

Guy Pearce, The Brutalist 

Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Locks: Yura Borisov, Kieran Culkin

Toss-Ups: Edward Norton, Guy Pearce, Jeremy Strong

Other Possible Contenders: Jonathan Bailey (Wicked), Mark Eydelshteyn (Anora), Clarence Maclin (Sing Sing), Stanley Tucci (Conclave), Denzel Washington (Gladiator II)

Best Supporting Actress:

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown

Jamie Lee Curtis, The Last Showgirl

Ariana Grande, Wicked

Isabella Rossellini, Conclave

Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez

Locks: Ariana Grande, Zoe Saldana

Toss-Ups: Monica Barbaro, Jamie Lee Curtis, Isabella Rossellini

Other Possible Contenders: Danielle Deadwyler (The Piano Lesson), Elle Fanning (A Complete Unknown), Selena Gomez (Emilia Perez), Felicity Jones (The Brutalist), Margaret Qualley (The Substance) 

Best Original Screenplay:

Anora

The Brutalist

A Real Pain

September 5

The Substance

Locks: Anora, The Brutalist, A Real Pain, The Substance

Toss-Up: September 5

Other Possible Contenders: All We Imagine as Light, Challengers, Hard Truths, Juror #2, The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Best Adapted Screenplay:

A Complete Unknown

Conclave

Emilia Perez

Nickel Boys

Sing Sing

Locks: A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Emilia Perez

Toss-Ups: Nickel Boys, Sing Sing

Other Possible Contenders: Dune: Part Two, Hit Man, I'm Still Here, Nosferatu, Wicked

Best Animated Feature:

Flow

Inside Out 2

Memoir of a Snail

Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl 

The Wild Robot

Locks: Flow, Inside Out 2, Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl, The Wild Robot

Toss-Up: Memoir of a Snail

Other Possible Contenders: Chicken for Linda, Moana 2, Transformers One 

Best Documentary Feature:

Black Box Diaries

Daughters

No Other Land

Soundtrack to a Coup D'Etat

Sugarcane 

Locks: No Other Land, Sugarcane

Toss-Ups: Black Box Diaries, Daughters, Soundtrack to a Coup D'Etat

Other Possible Contenders: The Bibi Files, Dahomey, Porcelain War, The Remarkable Life of Ibelin, Will & Harper

Best International Feature:

Emilia Perez

I'm Still Here

Kneecap

The Seed of the Sacred Fig

Vermiglio 

Locks: Emilia Perez, I'm Still Here

Toss-Ups: Kneecap, The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Vermiglio 

Other Possible Contenders: Flow, From Ground Zero, The Girl with the Needle, How to Make Millions Before Grandma Dies, Universal Language 

Best Cinematography:

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nickel Boys

Nosferatu

Locks: The Brutalist, Conclave, Dune: Part Two

Toss-Ups: Nickel Boys, Nosferatu

Other Possible Contenders: A Complete Unknown, Emilia Perez, The Girl with the Needle, Maria, Wicked

Best Film Editing:

Anora

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Locks: Anora, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez

Toss-Up: The Brutalist

Other Possible Contenders: A Complete Unknown, Challengers, September 5, The Substance, Wicked

Best Original Score:

The Brutalist

Challengers

Conclave

Emilia Perez

The Wild Robot

Locks: The Brutalist, Conclave, Emilia Perez

Toss-Ups: Challengers, The Wild Robot

Other Possible Contenders: Blitz, Gladiator II, Nosferatu, The Room Next Door, Wicked

Best Original Song:

"El Mal", Emilia Perez

"The Journey", The Six Triple Eight

"Kiss the Sky", The Wild Robot

 "Mi Camino", Emilia Perez

"Never Too Late", Elton John: Never Too Late

Locks: "El Mal", "Kiss the Sky", "Mi Camino"

Toss-Ups: "The Journey", "Never Too Late"

Other Possible Contenders: "Beyond" (Moana 2), "Compress/Repress" (Challengers), "Harper and Will Go West" (Will & Harper), "Like a Bird (Sing Sing), "Sick in the Head" (Kneecap)

Best Costume Design:

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II 

Nosferatu

Wicked 

Locks: Dune: Part Two, Nosferatu, Wicked

Toss-Ups: Conclave, Gladiator II

Other Possible Contenders: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blitz, The Brutalist, A Complete Unkown, Maria

Best Makeup & Hairstyling:

Beetlejuice Beetlejuice 

A Different Man

Nosferatu

The Substance 

Wicked

Locks:  Nosferatu, The Substance, Wicked

Toss-Ups: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, A Different Man

Other Possible Contenders: Dune: Part Two, Emilia Perez, Waltzing with Brando 

Best Production Design:

The Brutalist

Conclave

Dune: Part Two

Nosferatu

Wicked

Locks: The Brutalist, Dune: Part Two, Wicked

Toss-Ups: Conclave, Nosferatu

Other Possible Contenders: Beetlejuice Beetlejuice, Blitz, A Complete Unknown, Gladiator II, The Substance

Best Sound:

A Complete Unknown

Dune: Part Two

Emilia Perez

Gladiator II

Wicked

Best Visual Effects:

Better Man

Dune: Part Two

Gladiator II 

Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes

Wicked

Best Animated Short:

A Bear Named Wojtek 

A Crab in the Pool

Me

Yuck!

Wander to Wonder 

Best Documentary Short:

Chasing Roo

Incident 

Makayla's Voice: A Letter to the World 

Once Upon a Time in Ukraine 

A Swim Lesson

Best Live Action Short:

Anjua 

An Orange from Jaffa 

Dovecote

The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

The Masterpiece 

Tuesday, January 21, 2025

Quick Movie Reviews: Better Man, Den of Thieves 2: Pantera, Wolf Man, Presence

Better Man: The best musical of the year isn't Wicked and it sure as shit isn't Emilia Perez, it's a biopic about British pop singer Robbie Williams. Starting with the choice to portray Williams as a CGI monkey (it makes total sense narratively, but I'm not going to spoil why this is the case here), Better Man spices up the routine structure of a music biopic with some huge creative swings and having the huge luxury of a subject that is unafraid to look like a huge asshole or be truly vulnerable while telling their story on screen. Michael Gracey (The Greatest Showman) directs with a mixture of go-for-broke energy, gonzo surrealism and astounding technical prowess as he weaves a compelling speed run through Williams unlikely path to superstardom and the depression/substance abuse/infidelity/narcissism that caused him to completely lose his way once he got to the top. The musical numbers-which are seamlessly mixed into the story-are a particularly strong showcase for what Gracey and Williams wanted to do here as they are these consistently huge, elaborate sequences that are overflowing with style and precision that also manage to really drive home the emotional high and lows of the story. Seeing a music biopic that is so daring and carefully crafted is kind of a small miracle and I really hope that this will eventually find the audience that it failed to during its theatrical run.         

Grade: B+

Den of Thieves 2: Pantera: Big Nick (Gerard Butler) and Donnie (O'Shea Jackson Jr.) are back in the big game heist saddle with Den of Thieves 2 and just like it's terrific predecessor, it's a new January movie classic. The embrace of a looser, sillier tone fits the European vacation vibe of the movie without losing sight of the unapologetic macho sleaze factor that made the original so appealing, having Butler's Big Nick switch from cop to thief is a genius choice that takes great advantage of the character's pervasive natural dirtbaggery and the combative frenemy chemistry he has with Jackson Jr. and writer/director Christan Gudegast once again crafts the hell out of the film's wildly tense heist/action sequences (the final shootout/car chase through the winding tunnels and oceanside roads of the France/Italy border is IMMENSE). A 3rd round with Big Nick, Donnie and co. would be a gift, especially given the absolutely fucking insane note that this one ends on.         

Grade: B+

Wolf Man: Despite operating in similar territory as his excellent remake of The Invisible Man, Leigh Whannell's second trip to the Universal Monsters well didn't go nearly as smoothly as the first. What makes Wolf Man particularly frustrating is that it doesn't just have a good idea (following a car accident in the rural Oregon woods in which he is scratched by a mysterious creature, a man begins to rapidly transform into a violent monster- putting his wife and daughter in imminent danger) for a fresh spin on the classic werewolf tale, quite a bit of it really works. The gruesome practical effects along with the "infected" human/wolf hybrid monster design look awesome, the sound design is crunchy and visceral, and Whannell's signature stylistic flourishes are on full display as he regularly puts the viewer directly into the shoes of the shocking transformations that Christopher Abbott's character goes through as his entire perception of the world shifts to that of a wolf (thermal vision, growing of claws, loss of the ability to speak or understand human languages) via some inventive camerawork, shot selections and CGI use. Where Wolf Man goes wrong is in its clunky attempts to merge the creature horror with a domestic drama. The human elements of the story-which deals with generational trauma and how it can impact your behavior and ability to build healthy relationships for a lifetime-are really underdeveloped and since so much of the story is grounded in the pain of a family seeing someone they love become a monster and a man whose been fighting his whole life to become a better person succumb to the same demons that scarred him, it lacks any form of real emotional punch. It's pretty clear that the script needed a rewrite or two to get it where it needed to be, and it really sucks that it didn't happen because there is a really great movie buried in Wolf Man that's begging to be extracted from below its merely decent surface.     

Grade: B-

Presence: Marketing Steven Soderbergh's Presence as a horror movie is a really odd choice by Neon. It is very explicitly a family drama that just happens to be told from the POV perspective of a ghost that haunts a house in New Jersey that was recently purchased by a family (Lucy Liu, Chris Sullivan, Callina Liang, Eddy Maday) that's in a state of serious personal turmoil. Despite its questionable genre billing, Presence is another admirably unique dice roll from Soderbergh. The way that film is shot and cut together gives the film a voyeuristic feel that provides an intimate look at the various dynamics that exist in this fractured family as they navigate some really major shit that threatens to tear them apart forever and the performances from all four leads are all chillingly authentic. Honestly, everything was going pretty great until its abrupt, ridiculous ending occurs and takes a huge dump on what preceded it. While I still would've been puzzled by it, I would've been much more willing to accept such a jarringly cartoonish ending to an otherwise pretty grounded movie if it didn't elect to suddenly abandon several key plot threads without even providing the viewer with a sincere opportunity to draw their own conclusions in the process. Vets like Soderbergh and screenwriter David Koepp pulling off something so lazy and poorly conceived is kind of shocking and it's what I'll ultimately associate Presence with above anything else.             

Grade: B-

Saturday, January 18, 2025

NFL Divisional Round Predictions

Wild Card Record: 4-2 (Correct: Ravens, Bills, Eagles, Rams Incorrect: Chargers, Buccaneers)

Kansas City Chiefs over Houston Texans:

The Texans deserve a ton for credit for the way they played last week against the Chargers. Their defense allowed to them overcome their early turnovers/offensive ineffectiveness by keeping the Chargers out of the endzone when they had short fields on three drives in the first half and the relentless pressure they put on Justin Herbet forced him to have one of the worst games of his career while C.J. Stroud put up a big time performance that was full of clutch plays that allowed them to blow the game wide open in the second half. Despite coming off such an impressive effort that shut up a lot of doubters (myself included), playing the Chiefs is a whole different beast that I don't think they'll be able to overcome. Andy Reid-coached teams are incredibly difficult to beat when they're coming off a bye, the Chiefs offense were in their finest form of the season in the 2 games before the Week 18 finale against the Broncos where they rested their starters and perhaps most importantly, the Texans lack of experience playing in cold weather games (the projected temperature in Kansas City this afternoon is 20 degrees) could end up biting them in the ass.     

Detroit Lions over Washington Commanders:

Not to be the asshole that takes the wind out of the sails of a long-suffering franchise that picked up their first playoff win in almost 20 years, but I just wasn't all that impressed with how the Commanders played in their win over the Bucs last Sunday night. Jayden Daniels simply just did his job as an NFL starting quarterback well as he had plenty of time to throw and the Bucs depleted, horseshit secondary couldn't cover their receivers (especially on 3rd down), their defense got run over on just about every drive where the Bucs offense had the decency to not shoot themselves in the foot with penalties and an absurd fumble on a botched handoff from Baker Mayfield with their backs against their own endzone in the 4th quarter is the top reason Dan Quinn embracing his inner Dan Campbell by going for it on 4th down (and failing) twice while in chip shot field goal territory didn't cost them the game. They're not likely to be presented with such a favorable scenario when take on the Lions tonight. Quite frankly, I think the Commanders below average defense are going to get knocked on their ass by the physicality, firepower and dynamism the Lions offense possesses and it's not really going to matter what Daniels and co. can or can't do against whatever version of the banged-up Lions defense shows up.   

Philadelphia Eagles over Los Angeles Rams:

With snow in the forecast for Philadelphia, running the ball and defending the run is likely going to dictate the outcome of Eagles/Rams. While the Rams are better in these areas than their regular season stats indicate (24th in rushing offense, 22nd in rushing defense), I just can't pick against the Eagles in a game with these conditions. Saquon Barkley has been the most dominant back in the league this year running behind the best o-line in football and the Eagles front full of behemoths were built for ugly, trenches-driven January football.    

Baltimore Ravens over Buffalo Bills:

Much is being made about how cold it is going to be in Orchard Park tomorrow (roughly 10 degrees at kickoff at 6:30 PM EST) and how the Ravens-specifically Lamar Jackson-could struggle in those conditions. Whatever the outcome of this game ends up being, I don't think the cold is going to be a factor. Maryland isn't a place that's shielded from winter weather (nor are the outdoor home stadiums of all 3 of their rivals in the AFC North) and while as a native of southern Florida I'm sure he's no fan of the cold; Jackson has been playing in these types of conditions since his college days at Louisville.

What I do believe will likely determine who moves onto the AFC Championship Game is whose defense will be able to do a better job of slowing down the opposing offense. On those grounds, I believe the Ravens have the edge and that's why I'm picking to them win here. As exploitable as Brandon Stephens and Nate Wiggins are at corner, the Ravens defense has been among the best in the league in nearly every important category (points/YDS allowed, takeaways, 3rd down % percentage allowed, red zone defense) since mid-November when they shifted Kyle Hamilton back to safety full-time and I think they're well-equipped to contain the Bills varied RB committee and take away a lot of the slot looks from Khalil Shakir and Mack Hollins that are such a big part of their passing attack. On the other side, I just don't think the Bills have the grit or the discipline in the front 7 to slow down the freight train of a rushing attack that allows the Ravens to dictate the entire pace of the game and gradually wear down their opponents through the combination of speed and power they're putting on the field. And if Josh Allen has his number of possessions limited by ball control, the Bills probably aren't going to win that game.    

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Cameron Diaz Ranked

Welcome to "Ranked", a weekly series where I rank a franchise or filmography from worst to best and hand out assorted related superlatives. This week, I'm profiling the work of Cameron Diaz-whose latest project "Back in Action" releases on Netflix this Friday.  

Cameron Diaz's Filmography Ranked:

20.The Other Woman (D-)

19.Very Bad Things (D)

18.The Counselor (D+)

17.What to Expect When You're Expecting (D+)

16.The Sweetest Thing (C-)

15.Any Given Sunday (C-)

14.Sex Tape (C)

13.Charlie's Angels (C)

12.Charlie's Angels: Full Throttle (C+)

11.The Green Hornet (B-)

10.Knight and Day (B-)

9.Bad Teacher (B-)

8.Gangs of New York (B-)

7.The Holiday (B-)

6.Being John Malkovich (B-)

5.Shrek 2 (B)

4.The Mask (B)

3.There's Something About Mary (B+)

2.Shrek (B+)

1.Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (A)

Top Dog: Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas (1998)

Just the ultimate adaptation of Hunter S. Thompson's borderline unadaptable material. Terry Gilliam flawlessly captures the psychedelic, paranoid absurdist comedy of Thompson's fragmented substance-fueled writing via a wildly entertaining episodic narrative and Johnny Depp and Benicio del Toro fully embrace the madness their characters get into with their demented, hilarious performances.     

Bottom Feeder: The Other Woman (2014)

The first of the three Diaz films released in 2014 before she elected to go on a decade-long hiatus from acting, The Other Woman is an awful movie full of unfunny jokes and bad performances from an ensemble cast (Diaz, Leslie Mann, Kate Upton, Nikolaj Coster-Waldau, Nicki Minaj, Don Johnson) that have zero chemistry together.  

Most Underrated: Bad Teacher (2011)

Are there plenty of other R-rated comedies that I'd rather watch than Bad Teacher? Absolutely. I just happen to think this movie is far funnier than it's given credit for. Diaz is a hoot as the titular selfish, disengaged shitbag teacher who goes to great lengths to try and woo her new co-worker (Justin Timberlake) and Jason Segel does some of the most underrated comedic work of his career as the affable gym teacher who has a crush on her.  

Most Overrated: Any Given Sunday (1999)

Oliver Stone's barrage of frantic editing and camerawork techniques become exhausting before this bloated below average soap opera about a flailing football team whose fortunes reserve when their third-string quarterback (Jamie Foxx) is forced into action reaches the one-hour mark. Adding to its grating nature is Al Pacino turning in his Mona Lisa of ineffective overacting as the team's aging legendary coach Tony D'Amato and a breathtakingly stupid ending that makes the finale of Draft Day look completely grounded.       

Monday, January 13, 2025

2024 NFL All-Pro Team

Quarterback

1st team: Lamar Jackson (Ravens)

2nd team: Joe Burrow (Bengals)

Running Back

1st team: Saquon Barkley (Eagles), Derrick Henry (Ravens)

2nd team: Josh Jacobs (Packers), Bijan Robinson (Falcons)

Wide Receiver

1st team: Ja'Marr Chase (Bengals), Justin Jefferson (Vikings)

2nd team: Amon-Ra St. Brown (Lions), Drake London (Falcons)

Tight End

1st team: George Kittle (49ers)

2nd team: Brock Bowers (Raiders)

Tackle

1st team: Jordan Mailata (Eagles), Zach Tom (Packers)

2nd team: Rashawn Slater (Chargers), Penei Sewell (Lions)   

Guard

1st team: Chris Lindstrom (Falcons), Kevin Zeitler (Lions)

2nd team: Quenton Nelson (Colts), Quinn Minerz (Broncos)

Center

1st team: Creed Humphrey (Chiefs)

2nd team: Frank Ragnow (Lions)

Defensive End

1st team: Myles Garrett (Browns), Trey Hendrickson (Bengals)

2nd team: Nick Bosa (49ers), Leonard Williams (Seahawks)

Defensive Tackle

1st team: Cameron Heyward (Steelers), Chris Jones (Chiefs)

2nd team: Jeffrey Simmons (Titans), Dexter Lawrence (Giants)

Outside Linebacker

1st team: T.J. Watt (Steelers), Jonathan Greenard (Vikings)

2nd team: Jared Verse (Rams), Khalil Mack (Chargers)

Inside Linebacker

1st team: Zack Baun (Eagles), Fred Warner (49ers)

2nd team: Bobby Wagner (Commanders), Jordyn Brooks (Dolphins)

Cornerback

1st team: Patrick Surtain II (Broncos), Trent McDuffie (Chiefs)

2nd team: Christian Benford (Bills), Marlon Humphrey (Ravens)

Safety

1st team: Kerby Joseph (Lions), Xavier McKinney (Packers)

2nd team: Kyle Hamilton (Ravens), Brandon Jones (Broncos)

Kicker

1st team: Chris Boswell (Steelers)

2nd team: Cameron Dicker (Chargers)

Punter

1st team: Jack Fox (Lions)

2nd team: Logan Cooke (Jaguars)

Return Specialist:

1st team: KaVontae Turpin (Cowboys), Marvin Mims Jr. (Broncos)

2nd team: Austin Ekeler (Commanders), Kalif Raymond (Lions)

Special Teamer:

1st team: Brenden Schooler (Patriots)

2nd team: J.T. Gray (Saints)

Saturday, January 11, 2025

NFL Wild Card Predictions

Los Angeles Chargers over Houston Texans:

Wild Card Weekend wouldn't be quite the same if the Texans weren't playing in the 4:30 PM EST slot on Saturday. Unfortunately for them, they drew the shittiest matchup they possibly could in this round in the Chargers. A Texans offense that has been stagnant as hell for much of the past month is going to have their work cut out for them against a Chargers defense that is physical and fast at all 3 levels and Justin Herbert-whose quietly been playing the best football of his career this year despite being in Greg Roman's ultraconservative system-should be eager to prove his doubters wrong in his 1st playoff game since the infamous debacle against the Jaguars 2 years ago.  

Balitmore Ravens over Pittsburgh Steelers:

Anything can happen when divisional opponents meet for the 3rd time in a season. However, it would be a major shock if the Ravens didn't take this game-even with top wideout Zay Flowers out of the lineup with a knee sprain and the very legit concerns that remain over Lamar Jackson's ability to deliver in the playoffs. The Steelers have looked overmatched and completely rudderless during their current 4-game losing game streak while the Ravens have been rolling over the same stretch-going 4-0 and beating their opponents by a combined score of 135-43 (including a 34-17 win over the Steelers on December 21st). It's going to take a major change of fortune for this Steelers team to win this game given how terrible they've played over the last month and I just don't see them being able to do that against a Ravens offense that can wear you down with Derrick Henry or attack you through the air in a variety of ways and a defense that has really tightened up over the last 8 weeks or so after a rough start to the year.   

Buffalo Bills over Denver Broncos:

This is a sneaky prime upset spot on this slate. As much as everybody in Buffalo would like to forget that it happened, it was just 2 short years ago on Wild Card Weekend that they narrowly defeated the Skylar Thompson-led Dolphins on their home field and it would be the most Bills thing in the world to overlook a Broncos team that isn't overly talented on paper and is led by a rookie quarterback that most people think is just fine as a player. Despite the plausibility of this scenario playing out, I'm just not confident enough in the Broncos as an operation to pick them to win. Josh Allen is a dynamic enough quarterback to potentially shred their solid but overrated defense that has gotten torched by great QB's including Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert this season, Sean Payton has gone 4-7 in the playoffs since winning the Super Bowl with the Saints in 2009 and excluding last week's win against the Chiefs backups, the Broncos are a horrid 1-5 against playoff teams during the 2024 campaign.    

Philadelphia Eagles over Green Bay Packers:

Can the Packers knock off a heavily favored NFC East team as the #7 seed for a 2nd straight season? Sure. Their run defense-which has been great since roughly the halfway point of the season-has what it takes to slow down Saquon Barkley-who is the undisputed focal point of their offense and Matt LaFluer is capable of coaching circles around Nick Sirianni. But just like the Broncos, I'm just not quite sold on them having the horses required to beat a loaded Eagles team. The Packers secondary is very exploitable if Jalen Hurts can settle into a groove as a passer after missing the past 2.5 games with a concussion and while Josh Jacobs could find some room to run like he did in their Week 1 matchup in Sao Paulo, Jordan Love being asked to throw against the Eagles top-ranked pass D amidst his current struggles feels like a tall order that he probably won't be able to deliver on.  

Tampa Bay Buccaneers over Washington Commanders:

Picking the Bucs here feels like I'm really playing with fire. Their defense cannot defend the pass at all and their stupid, sloppy performances in 2 of their past 3 games doesn't provide much optimism about their ability to go on a run in the playoffs. It really just comes down to me liking the way Baker Mayfield plays in playoff games and having absolutely zero confidence in Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury's ability to call the right plays in a high leverage situation like this.     

Los Angeles Rams over Minnesota Vikings:

Setting aside the potential for an emotional boost or drain on account of the devastating wildfires ravaging through LA for a moment, I really like the Rams in this spot. Sean McVay most likely knows everything his protege Kevin O'Connell is going to cook up on offense, the Vikings continued struggles at slot corner opens the door for Puka Nacua to go absolutely wild and despite his recent stretch of poor play, I still trust Matthew Stafford way more than Sam Darnold in a game like this-especially after Darnold's horrendous performance against the Lions last week.