Last night marked the merciful conclusion of the NFL's always insufferable month-long exhibition slate, which means the return of legitimate game action is finally on the horizon. With the big 2018 season kickoff in Philadelphia just 6 days away, it's time to start my annual weekly power rankings with a look at where I believe the league hierarchy stands before any meaningful downs have been played. Stay tuned every Tuesday from September 11th-January 1st for a new batch of rankings and check back sometime in mid-October to see how comically wrong this initial entry was.
1.Philadelphia Eagles Week 1 opponent: Atlanta Falcons
2.New England Patriots Week 1 opponent: Houston Texans
3.Minnesota Vikings Week 1 opponent: San Francisco 49ers
4.Jacksonville Jaguars Week 1 opponent: New York Giants
5.New Orleans Saints Week 1 opponent: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6.Pittsburgh Steelers Week 1 opponent: Cleveland Browns
7.Los Angeles Rams Week 1 opponent: Oakland Raiders
8.Atlanta Falcons Week 1 opponent: Philadelphia Eagles
9.Green Bay Packers Week 1 opponent: Chicago Bears
10.Carolina Panthers Week 1 opponent: Dallas Cowboys
11.Los Angeles Chargers Week 1 opponent: Kansas City Chiefs
12.Kansas City Chiefs Week 1 opponent: Los Angeles Chargers
13.Baltimore Ravens Week 1 opponent: Buffalo Bills
14.Detroit Lions Week 1 opponent: New York Jets
15.Tennessee Titans Week 1 opponent: Miami Dolphins
16.Seattle Seahawks Week 1 opponent: Denver Broncos
17.Dallas Cowboys Week 1 opponent: Carolina Panthers
18.New York Giants Week 1 opponent: Jacksonville Jaguars
19.Houston Texans Week 1 opponent: New England Patriots
20.San Francisco 49ers Week 1 opponent: Minnesota Vikings
21.Washington Redskins Week 1 opponent: Arizona Cardinals
22.Denver Broncos Week 1 opponent: Seattle Seahawks
23.Buffalo Bills Week 1 opponent: Baltimore Ravens
24.Cincinnati Bengals Week 1 opponent: Indianapolis Colts
25.Chicago Bears Week 1 opponent: Green Bay Packers
26.Arizona Cardinals Week 1 opponent: Washington Redskins
27.Oakland Raiders Week 1 opponent: Los Angeles Rams
28.Tampa Bay Buccaneers Week 1 opponent: New Orleans Saints
29.Indianapolis Colts Week 1 opponent: Cincinnati Bengals
30.New York Jets Week 1 opponent: Detroit Lions
31.Miami Dolphins Week 1 opponent: Tennessee Titans
32.Cleveland Browns Week 1 opponent: Pittsburgh Steelers
Friday, August 31, 2018
Thursday, August 30, 2018
2018 NFL Preview: AFC West
Denver Broncos
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in AFC West)
Head Coach: Vance Joseph (2nd season)
Notable Additions: QB Case Keenum, P Marquette King, T Jared Veldheer
Notable Departures: CB Aqib Talib, RB C.J. Anderson, QB Trevor Siemian
-The 5-11 season Broncos had in 2017 can almost entirely be attributed to their horrific quarterback play. No matter which member of the Trevor Siemian/Brock Osweiler/Paxton Lynch tandem lined up under center, the offense often struggled to move the ball and developed a horrific tendency to turn the ball over at pivotal moments. Clearly GM John Elway wasn't going to let this horrible QB situation manifest for another season and decided to bring in veteran Case Keenum to be the team's new starter. While I'm skeptical about his ability to put together another sneaky great season like he had with the Vikings in 2017, Keenum is at the very least a significant upgrade over last year's tragic trio of signalcallers. He doesn't tend to turn the ball over a lot (only 7 INT's in 2017) and outside of a really bad string of games with the Texans in 2013, he's proven he can win games at this level (if you exclude that 0-8 run in 2013, he has a 20-10 record as a starter). The truth is that all Keenum needs to do is let this terrific defense make life difficult for their opponents and score enough points to win close games, and I believe he has what it takes to do just that.
-Call me soft if you want, but I'm glad that Vance Joseph ended up getting retained for a 2nd season. It's really hard to make your mark as a coach in the league when your offense is being run by a group of QB's that flat-out can't make plays and turn the ball over at will (34 giveaways, which was just behind the Browns for the league lead). However, his leash will undoubtedly be pretty short moving forward. He's a defensive-minded coach with a deep arsenal of talented players led by perennial standouts Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr. at his disposal that could be even more deadly in 2018 if their high-ceiling rookies (edge rusher Bradley Chubb, inside linebacker Josey Jewell) pan out and his offense has enough talent on it (Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, a few rookies that could end up being playmakers) that the addition of a QB who isn't a strong bet to either get a 3-and-out or throw an INT every time he takes the field should eliminate much of the limpness that caused them to finish in the league's basement in 2017. We can only hope that Joseph will figure this whole head coaching thing out in year 2 and finally get to have the time of his life on the sideline.
-With C.J. Anderson being a cap causality this offseason, there's now a vacancy at starting running back. With all due respect to 2017 6th round pick De'Angelo Henderson, the battle for this job will be between Devontae Booker and rookie Royce Freeman. Freeman has outshined Booker substantially during the preseason, but it wouldn't be a shocker if they were engaged in a (relatively) even timeshare to start off the year because of the rookie's problems in pass-protection and concerns over his workload while he was at the University of Oregon. However, based on Booker's struggles with health and fumbling since entering the NFL, Freeman will likely be the uncontested starter before too long regardless of who ends up getting most of the reps in Week 1. I didn't think Freeman's college tape was overly impressive, but running behind a pretty decent line that has a pair of superb run-blockers on the interior (center Matt Paradis, guard Ronald Leary) in an offense where he's a near-lock to get ample touches should give him a pretty shot of succeeding in the pro's.
Bottom Line:
The near-guarantee stronger play from the QB position makes improvement seemingly inevitable for the Broncos, but this unproven coaching staff makes a return to the playoffs seem far-fetched this season.
-The 5-11 season Broncos had in 2017 can almost entirely be attributed to their horrific quarterback play. No matter which member of the Trevor Siemian/Brock Osweiler/Paxton Lynch tandem lined up under center, the offense often struggled to move the ball and developed a horrific tendency to turn the ball over at pivotal moments. Clearly GM John Elway wasn't going to let this horrible QB situation manifest for another season and decided to bring in veteran Case Keenum to be the team's new starter. While I'm skeptical about his ability to put together another sneaky great season like he had with the Vikings in 2017, Keenum is at the very least a significant upgrade over last year's tragic trio of signalcallers. He doesn't tend to turn the ball over a lot (only 7 INT's in 2017) and outside of a really bad string of games with the Texans in 2013, he's proven he can win games at this level (if you exclude that 0-8 run in 2013, he has a 20-10 record as a starter). The truth is that all Keenum needs to do is let this terrific defense make life difficult for their opponents and score enough points to win close games, and I believe he has what it takes to do just that.
-Call me soft if you want, but I'm glad that Vance Joseph ended up getting retained for a 2nd season. It's really hard to make your mark as a coach in the league when your offense is being run by a group of QB's that flat-out can't make plays and turn the ball over at will (34 giveaways, which was just behind the Browns for the league lead). However, his leash will undoubtedly be pretty short moving forward. He's a defensive-minded coach with a deep arsenal of talented players led by perennial standouts Von Miller and Chris Harris Jr. at his disposal that could be even more deadly in 2018 if their high-ceiling rookies (edge rusher Bradley Chubb, inside linebacker Josey Jewell) pan out and his offense has enough talent on it (Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, a few rookies that could end up being playmakers) that the addition of a QB who isn't a strong bet to either get a 3-and-out or throw an INT every time he takes the field should eliminate much of the limpness that caused them to finish in the league's basement in 2017. We can only hope that Joseph will figure this whole head coaching thing out in year 2 and finally get to have the time of his life on the sideline.
-With C.J. Anderson being a cap causality this offseason, there's now a vacancy at starting running back. With all due respect to 2017 6th round pick De'Angelo Henderson, the battle for this job will be between Devontae Booker and rookie Royce Freeman. Freeman has outshined Booker substantially during the preseason, but it wouldn't be a shocker if they were engaged in a (relatively) even timeshare to start off the year because of the rookie's problems in pass-protection and concerns over his workload while he was at the University of Oregon. However, based on Booker's struggles with health and fumbling since entering the NFL, Freeman will likely be the uncontested starter before too long regardless of who ends up getting most of the reps in Week 1. I didn't think Freeman's college tape was overly impressive, but running behind a pretty decent line that has a pair of superb run-blockers on the interior (center Matt Paradis, guard Ronald Leary) in an offense where he's a near-lock to get ample touches should give him a pretty shot of succeeding in the pro's.
Bottom Line:
The near-guarantee stronger play from the QB position makes improvement seemingly inevitable for the Broncos, but this unproven coaching staff makes a return to the playoffs seem far-fetched this season.
Kansas City Chiefs
2017 Record: 10-6 (1st in AFC West)
Head Coach: Andy Reid (6th season)
Notable Additions: CB Kendall Fuller, WR Sammy Watkins, ILB Anthony Hitchens
Notable Departures: QB Alex Smith, CB Marcus Peters, ILB Derrick Johnson
-The decision to move on from Alex Smith right now is really ballsy for a couple of reasons: 1.The stability and consistency Smith brought to the position resulted in the Chiefs making 4 playoff appearances, winning 2 division titles and never winning less than 9 games during his 5 seasons with the team. 2.There's absolutely no indication that Patrick Mahomes, who was considered to be a project when he was drafted 10th overall in 2017 due to his shaky pocket presence and the notorious simplicity of the Air Raid offense he ran at Texas Tech, is comfortable enough under center to handle starting duties after only 1 season of learning the ropes behind Smith. While you have to respect the boldness of trading away a QB who is a near-lock to get you to the playoffs in the thin AFC to roll the dice on a big-armed gunslinger who could easily force your team to take a few steps back, I think that giving Mahomes another year to work on his mechanics and further develop an understanding of the many complexities of an NFL offense before trading Smith would've been a good move.
-Regardless of my skepticism surrounding Mahomes' ability to come in and be productive right away, it's hard to argue that he doesn't have a group of receivers around him that aren't ideal for his skill set. Mahomes has to be thrilled to that he has guys like Travis Kelce and top-end speedster Tyreek Hill that have proven time and time again that they can catch bombs down the field. This already stellar vertical attack got even more exciting with the addition of Sammy Watkins-who could prove to be a huge asset if he can bounce back from his down 2017 season with the Rams and solve the timing issues that him and Mahomes have had in the preseason. The depth beneath these 3 and running back Kareem Hunt, who hauled in 53 receptions as a rookie, is a little shaky now that Albert Wilson is out of the equation, but you still have to be intrigued and excited about all of the big-play potential this team has in the passing game with Mahomes under center.
-I've rambled on at length over the course of this series about how running backs are more susceptible to sophomore slumps than just about any other position on the field. Of this year's RB class, I'd give Hunt the highest odds of falling victim to this dreaded gridiron trend. The University of Toledo product's numbers were pretty frontloaded (1,060 of his 1,782 YDS from scrimmage came before November) a year ago and despite the continuity from last season, the Chiefs offensive line is below average and has more than enough vulnerabilities (particularly on the interior) that can be exposed by any half-decent run defense. His guaranteed high volume in Andy Reid's offense will provide plenty of opportunities to avoid this horrible fate I've predicted for him, but I don't expect him to win another rushing title or pick up nearly 1,800 yards from scrimmage again in year 2.
-While it's not as risky as swapping out a veteran QB with 5 playoff appearances on his resume for a 2nd-year guy with 1 career start, cutting ties with young star corner Marcus Peters was still a bold, unexpected move by the Chiefs. Peters may be a not-so-great locker room presence and get torched for easy TD's from time to time, but he's still an excellent player whose very good in coverage and might have the best ball skills of any defensive back in the game as evidenced by his staggering 19 INT's over the past 3 seasons. The silver lining for the Chiefs is they were able to acquire a promising young corner in Kendall Fuller, who graded out as a top 10 corner in the league in 2017, to replace Peters as part of the Smith trade with the Redskins. While he isn't quite the top-notch ballhawk that Peters was, Fuller is much more disciplined in coverage and possess zero character concerns. Given the uncertainty of the other corner slots (currently filled by the always erratic Steven Nelson and Raiders castoff David Amerson) and very realistic possibility that safety Eric Berry isn't the same all-around force he's been in the past as he tries to rebound from an Achilles tear at age 29 going on 30, the Chiefs absolutely need Fuller to cash-in on his immense potential to prevent their secondary from completely falling apart..
Bottom Line:
Unless Patrick Mahomes avoids the bulk of the speed bumps that tend to plague 1st-year starting QB's, the Chiefs win total is likely going to take a bit of a dip in 2018.
-Regardless of my skepticism surrounding Mahomes' ability to come in and be productive right away, it's hard to argue that he doesn't have a group of receivers around him that aren't ideal for his skill set. Mahomes has to be thrilled to that he has guys like Travis Kelce and top-end speedster Tyreek Hill that have proven time and time again that they can catch bombs down the field. This already stellar vertical attack got even more exciting with the addition of Sammy Watkins-who could prove to be a huge asset if he can bounce back from his down 2017 season with the Rams and solve the timing issues that him and Mahomes have had in the preseason. The depth beneath these 3 and running back Kareem Hunt, who hauled in 53 receptions as a rookie, is a little shaky now that Albert Wilson is out of the equation, but you still have to be intrigued and excited about all of the big-play potential this team has in the passing game with Mahomes under center.
-I've rambled on at length over the course of this series about how running backs are more susceptible to sophomore slumps than just about any other position on the field. Of this year's RB class, I'd give Hunt the highest odds of falling victim to this dreaded gridiron trend. The University of Toledo product's numbers were pretty frontloaded (1,060 of his 1,782 YDS from scrimmage came before November) a year ago and despite the continuity from last season, the Chiefs offensive line is below average and has more than enough vulnerabilities (particularly on the interior) that can be exposed by any half-decent run defense. His guaranteed high volume in Andy Reid's offense will provide plenty of opportunities to avoid this horrible fate I've predicted for him, but I don't expect him to win another rushing title or pick up nearly 1,800 yards from scrimmage again in year 2.
-While it's not as risky as swapping out a veteran QB with 5 playoff appearances on his resume for a 2nd-year guy with 1 career start, cutting ties with young star corner Marcus Peters was still a bold, unexpected move by the Chiefs. Peters may be a not-so-great locker room presence and get torched for easy TD's from time to time, but he's still an excellent player whose very good in coverage and might have the best ball skills of any defensive back in the game as evidenced by his staggering 19 INT's over the past 3 seasons. The silver lining for the Chiefs is they were able to acquire a promising young corner in Kendall Fuller, who graded out as a top 10 corner in the league in 2017, to replace Peters as part of the Smith trade with the Redskins. While he isn't quite the top-notch ballhawk that Peters was, Fuller is much more disciplined in coverage and possess zero character concerns. Given the uncertainty of the other corner slots (currently filled by the always erratic Steven Nelson and Raiders castoff David Amerson) and very realistic possibility that safety Eric Berry isn't the same all-around force he's been in the past as he tries to rebound from an Achilles tear at age 29 going on 30, the Chiefs absolutely need Fuller to cash-in on his immense potential to prevent their secondary from completely falling apart..
Bottom Line:
Unless Patrick Mahomes avoids the bulk of the speed bumps that tend to plague 1st-year starting QB's, the Chiefs win total is likely going to take a bit of a dip in 2018.
Los Angeles Chargers
2017 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Anthony Lynn (2nd season)
Notable Additions: C Mike Pouncey, TE Virgil Green, K Caleb Sturgis
Notable Departures: TE Antonio Gates, G/C Matt Slauson, DE Jeremiah Attaochu
-From a pure talent perspective, the Chargers appear to have the ammo to contend for a Super Bowl appearance in this notoriously thin conference as early as this season. Phillip Rivers is still playing pretty well as he creeps towards the big 4-0, they have enough offensive playmakers (Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin) to keep opposing defenses off-balance, their pretty loaded defense might possess the most underrated secondary (Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, Desmond King, Jahleel Addae) and edge-rushing tandem in the league (Joey Bosa/Melvin Ingram) and they closed out 2017 season on a 6-1 run full of decisive wins that would seem to indicate that this team is ready to anoint itself as this division's new top dog. All that being said, I know better than to place any lofty expectations on this team because their luck is so remarkably awful. Hell, they've already lost 3 players (tight end Hunter Henry, cornerback Jason Verrett, safety Jaylen Watkins) that were expected to be valuable contributors to their team and the threat of them losing multiple games on last-second missed field goals by the time mid-October rolls around (I'm still blown away that they're going with another journeyman in Caleb Strugis at this position that has burned them more than anything else over the past decade) remains a very realistic possibility. I legitimately feel bad for all 18 Chargers fans who have to deal with the seemingly unescapable, often unbelievable heartbreak that plagues this team year after year.
-With Henry likely out for the season after tearing his ACL at mini-camp back in May and 82-year old Antonio Gates not being on the roster for the 1st time since 2002, the Chargers might have some serious problems on their hands at tight end. Blocking specialist Virgil Green, who was inked to a 3-year deal in free agency, has become the de facto starter due to the lack of experience elsewhere, but his numbers as a receiver over the course of his 7-year career thus far aren't particularly impressive (807 YDS and 4 TD's on 71 receptions) and I wouldn't expect him to become a frequent target in the passing game. As unexciting as Green is as a pass-catcher, you at least know what to expect from him. If he were to go down, true calamity could break out on this offense. Every backup option they currently have on their roster is either a pinball practice squad guy that has bounced around the league and spent little-to-no-time on an active NFL roster (Sean Culkin, Je'Reon Hamm, Bradedon Bowman or an undrafted rookie free agent (Cole Hunt, Ben Johnson) trying to cling onto a roster spot. OC Ken Wisenhunt is going to have to get creative with target shares and multi-receiver sets to work around this sizable deficiency at a spot where he's used to generating a lot of offense from.
-As much as I like this defense on the whole, I don't think they did enough to address their deficiencies as a run defense this offseason. While the 2017 Jaguars proved you could get away with allowing some chunk plays on the ground without compromising your overall dominance as a group, the Chargers tendency to get dominated on the ground likely prevented them from finishing as a top-ranked scoring defense a year ago. The 3 rookies joining their front 7 (defensive tackle Justin Jones, outside linebackers Uchenna Nwosu and Kyzir White) all have decent upside, but I doubt any of them will be able to make enough of an impact to make up for the odd combination of over-the-hill defensive lineman (Brandon Mebane, Corey Liguet, Damion Square) and shaky linebackers (Jatavis Brown, Denzel Perryman, Kyle Emanuel) with poor track records as downhill tacklers they have playing prominent roles upfront that resulted in them allowing a gaudy 131.4 YDS per game last season (2nd-worst in the league). In a division full of teams that love to run the hell out of the ball, this is the absolute worst backbreaking problem the Chargers D could possibly have.
-Outside of the Colts and Seahawks, no team has had more notorious offensive lines problems over the last 5 years than the Chargers. However, unlike those organizations, there's no signs that improvement could be on the horizon in LA. Once you get past their respectable starting tackle combo (Russell Okung, Joe Barksdale), it's a god damn house of horrors down there in Costa Mesa. 2nd-year guard Forrest Lamp appears to have a chronic knee issue that's going to keep him off-the-field for at least the initial chunk of the season, bum's bum Michael Schofield has miraculously secured another starting job in the NFL as the Bolts new starting right guard and replacing Matt Slauson with Mike Pouncey at center might've made them younger, but it sure as hell didn't make them better. Thankfully Rivers is a tough SOB who can get rid of the ball pretty quickly because a more brittle QB in his age range would probably be out of the league if they had a revolving door of turnstiles like this upfront for 5+ years.
-From a pure talent perspective, the Chargers appear to have the ammo to contend for a Super Bowl appearance in this notoriously thin conference as early as this season. Phillip Rivers is still playing pretty well as he creeps towards the big 4-0, they have enough offensive playmakers (Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Tyrell Williams, Travis Benjamin) to keep opposing defenses off-balance, their pretty loaded defense might possess the most underrated secondary (Casey Hayward, Trevor Williams, Desmond King, Jahleel Addae) and edge-rushing tandem in the league (Joey Bosa/Melvin Ingram) and they closed out 2017 season on a 6-1 run full of decisive wins that would seem to indicate that this team is ready to anoint itself as this division's new top dog. All that being said, I know better than to place any lofty expectations on this team because their luck is so remarkably awful. Hell, they've already lost 3 players (tight end Hunter Henry, cornerback Jason Verrett, safety Jaylen Watkins) that were expected to be valuable contributors to their team and the threat of them losing multiple games on last-second missed field goals by the time mid-October rolls around (I'm still blown away that they're going with another journeyman in Caleb Strugis at this position that has burned them more than anything else over the past decade) remains a very realistic possibility. I legitimately feel bad for all 18 Chargers fans who have to deal with the seemingly unescapable, often unbelievable heartbreak that plagues this team year after year.
-With Henry likely out for the season after tearing his ACL at mini-camp back in May and 82-year old Antonio Gates not being on the roster for the 1st time since 2002, the Chargers might have some serious problems on their hands at tight end. Blocking specialist Virgil Green, who was inked to a 3-year deal in free agency, has become the de facto starter due to the lack of experience elsewhere, but his numbers as a receiver over the course of his 7-year career thus far aren't particularly impressive (807 YDS and 4 TD's on 71 receptions) and I wouldn't expect him to become a frequent target in the passing game. As unexciting as Green is as a pass-catcher, you at least know what to expect from him. If he were to go down, true calamity could break out on this offense. Every backup option they currently have on their roster is either a pinball practice squad guy that has bounced around the league and spent little-to-no-time on an active NFL roster (Sean Culkin, Je'Reon Hamm, Bradedon Bowman or an undrafted rookie free agent (Cole Hunt, Ben Johnson) trying to cling onto a roster spot. OC Ken Wisenhunt is going to have to get creative with target shares and multi-receiver sets to work around this sizable deficiency at a spot where he's used to generating a lot of offense from.
-As much as I like this defense on the whole, I don't think they did enough to address their deficiencies as a run defense this offseason. While the 2017 Jaguars proved you could get away with allowing some chunk plays on the ground without compromising your overall dominance as a group, the Chargers tendency to get dominated on the ground likely prevented them from finishing as a top-ranked scoring defense a year ago. The 3 rookies joining their front 7 (defensive tackle Justin Jones, outside linebackers Uchenna Nwosu and Kyzir White) all have decent upside, but I doubt any of them will be able to make enough of an impact to make up for the odd combination of over-the-hill defensive lineman (Brandon Mebane, Corey Liguet, Damion Square) and shaky linebackers (Jatavis Brown, Denzel Perryman, Kyle Emanuel) with poor track records as downhill tacklers they have playing prominent roles upfront that resulted in them allowing a gaudy 131.4 YDS per game last season (2nd-worst in the league). In a division full of teams that love to run the hell out of the ball, this is the absolute worst backbreaking problem the Chargers D could possibly have.
-Outside of the Colts and Seahawks, no team has had more notorious offensive lines problems over the last 5 years than the Chargers. However, unlike those organizations, there's no signs that improvement could be on the horizon in LA. Once you get past their respectable starting tackle combo (Russell Okung, Joe Barksdale), it's a god damn house of horrors down there in Costa Mesa. 2nd-year guard Forrest Lamp appears to have a chronic knee issue that's going to keep him off-the-field for at least the initial chunk of the season, bum's bum Michael Schofield has miraculously secured another starting job in the NFL as the Bolts new starting right guard and replacing Matt Slauson with Mike Pouncey at center might've made them younger, but it sure as hell didn't make them better. Thankfully Rivers is a tough SOB who can get rid of the ball pretty quickly because a more brittle QB in his age range would probably be out of the league if they had a revolving door of turnstiles like this upfront for 5+ years.
Bottom Line:
I'm predicting the Chargers to win the division because I think they're the most complete team in the AFC West, but I'm positive they'll receive a lethal, season-ending kick to their metaphorical dick once the playoffs start, if not sooner.
I'm predicting the Chargers to win the division because I think they're the most complete team in the AFC West, but I'm positive they'll receive a lethal, season-ending kick to their metaphorical dick once the playoffs start, if not sooner.
Oakland Raiders
2017 Record: 6-10 (3rd in AFC West)
Head Coach: Jon Gruden (1st season)
Notable Additions: WR Jordy Nelson, CB Rashaan Melvin, ILB Derrick Johnson
Notable Departures: WR Michael Crabtree, K Sebastian Janikowski, CB David Amerson
-After years of rumors about a coaching comeback, Mark Davis and his majestic bowl cut ended up being the person that was able to lure Jon Gruden out of the broadcast booth. Turns out all you needed to do to get Gruden to leave Monday Night Football was to offer him $100 million for his services. While fans seem to be eating up the redemption narrative of a once-beloved coach returning to the team that mercilessly traded him after the 2001 season , this just screams of a face-saving PR move to give Bay Area Raiders fans some warm nostalgic memories of the good ol'days before they take off for Las Vegas in 2-3 years. I understand that he was watching film on a weekly basis as preparation for MNF, but this guy has been away from coaching for a fucking decade!!!! Coaching icons like Joe Gibbs and Mike Ditka had a hard time evolving to the game after spending a significant amount of time away from the sidelines and Gruden doesn't seem like he's going to be the guy to suddenly break that trend. His public dismissal of analytics, frequent references to his past success and prominent role he played in the signings of multiple aging former stars (Jordy Nelson, Derrick Johnson, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) in free agency this offseason only further confirmed the suspicion that his mindset is too primitive to enjoy success in the modern NFL. The NFL is a better place with Gruden in it, but I don't think his return to the sideline will do anything but damage the clout and prestige that was once associated with his name.
-Another early red flag from the Gruden regime is how he's handled the holdout of Khalil Mack. Mack is understandably looking for his big payday a year early after racking up 40.5 sacks, 2 1st-team All-Pro appearances and a Defensive Player of the Year honor in his first 4 years in the league, but Mr."I want to take football back to 1998" won't sign off on giving him the $50+ mil in guaranteed money he's commanding as the league's most dominant young edge defender. The 2 sides reportedly haven't had a meaningful discussion in months and the Raiders now have to face the very real possibility of starting the year without the best player on their roster by a wide margin-which I'm sure will do wonders for this reclamation project they're currently embarking on. If I were Mack, I would refuse to step foot on the field for this organization again and put the full-court press on for a trade right away. The Raiders locker room environment could real ugly real quick if they continue to lose and as an elite player whose likely to be coveted by any team who has cap space and is looking to add a game-changing front 7 piece to their roster, even the threat of a situation like that breaking out would be enough for me to want out.
-The popular opinion around Derek Carr started to shift a bit after a rough 2017 season where he often lacked poise, made questionable throws and failed to show up for big games. I have a gut feeling that those bad tendencies will only get worse with this new coaching staff. As he proved with Blake Bortles during his time with the Jaguars, OC Greg Olson is a poor playcaller who doesn't seem to know how to help QB's fix their bad habits and this receiving corps is led by guys who either have shaky hands (Amari Cooper, who is also coming an awful season), blasé work ethics (Martavis Bryant, who the Steelers finally traded away after yet another wildly inconsistent campaign in 2017) or old men that look like they're moving in slow motion every time they break on a route (Nelson). Throwing a struggling QB surrounded by questionable receiving talent into a new offensive system just seems like a failure in the making and is without question one of the main reasons I expect the Raiders to be such an epic dumpster fire this season.
-Even without the prospect of Mack terrorizing opponents at the line of scrimmage for at least the near future, defense is the lone area where the Raiders seem likely to improve under Gruden. New defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, whose has spent the past 4 season seasons as the Bengals DC, should help bolster the development of their key young players (safety Karl Joseph, cornerback Gareon Conley, inside linebacker Marquel Lee) and while the aforementioned geriatric additions were head-scratching, they also brought in some solid veterans (outside linebacker Tahir Whitehead, cornerbacks Rashaan Melvin and Shareece Wright) that should help sure up the depth at positions where they had consistent problems last year. Real shame about the rest of the team and coaching staff though.
Bottom Line:
The Raiders currently don't have Khalil Mack, hired a coach who hasn't been on an NFL sideline since 2007 and have a considerably older roster than they did a year ago. Definitely no way this could end up going horribly wrong!
Projected Standings:
1.Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
2.Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
3.Denver Broncos (7-9)
4.Oakland Raiders (4-12)
-After years of rumors about a coaching comeback, Mark Davis and his majestic bowl cut ended up being the person that was able to lure Jon Gruden out of the broadcast booth. Turns out all you needed to do to get Gruden to leave Monday Night Football was to offer him $100 million for his services. While fans seem to be eating up the redemption narrative of a once-beloved coach returning to the team that mercilessly traded him after the 2001 season , this just screams of a face-saving PR move to give Bay Area Raiders fans some warm nostalgic memories of the good ol'days before they take off for Las Vegas in 2-3 years. I understand that he was watching film on a weekly basis as preparation for MNF, but this guy has been away from coaching for a fucking decade!!!! Coaching icons like Joe Gibbs and Mike Ditka had a hard time evolving to the game after spending a significant amount of time away from the sidelines and Gruden doesn't seem like he's going to be the guy to suddenly break that trend. His public dismissal of analytics, frequent references to his past success and prominent role he played in the signings of multiple aging former stars (Jordy Nelson, Derrick Johnson, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie) in free agency this offseason only further confirmed the suspicion that his mindset is too primitive to enjoy success in the modern NFL. The NFL is a better place with Gruden in it, but I don't think his return to the sideline will do anything but damage the clout and prestige that was once associated with his name.
-Another early red flag from the Gruden regime is how he's handled the holdout of Khalil Mack. Mack is understandably looking for his big payday a year early after racking up 40.5 sacks, 2 1st-team All-Pro appearances and a Defensive Player of the Year honor in his first 4 years in the league, but Mr."I want to take football back to 1998" won't sign off on giving him the $50+ mil in guaranteed money he's commanding as the league's most dominant young edge defender. The 2 sides reportedly haven't had a meaningful discussion in months and the Raiders now have to face the very real possibility of starting the year without the best player on their roster by a wide margin-which I'm sure will do wonders for this reclamation project they're currently embarking on. If I were Mack, I would refuse to step foot on the field for this organization again and put the full-court press on for a trade right away. The Raiders locker room environment could real ugly real quick if they continue to lose and as an elite player whose likely to be coveted by any team who has cap space and is looking to add a game-changing front 7 piece to their roster, even the threat of a situation like that breaking out would be enough for me to want out.
-The popular opinion around Derek Carr started to shift a bit after a rough 2017 season where he often lacked poise, made questionable throws and failed to show up for big games. I have a gut feeling that those bad tendencies will only get worse with this new coaching staff. As he proved with Blake Bortles during his time with the Jaguars, OC Greg Olson is a poor playcaller who doesn't seem to know how to help QB's fix their bad habits and this receiving corps is led by guys who either have shaky hands (Amari Cooper, who is also coming an awful season), blasé work ethics (Martavis Bryant, who the Steelers finally traded away after yet another wildly inconsistent campaign in 2017) or old men that look like they're moving in slow motion every time they break on a route (Nelson). Throwing a struggling QB surrounded by questionable receiving talent into a new offensive system just seems like a failure in the making and is without question one of the main reasons I expect the Raiders to be such an epic dumpster fire this season.
-Even without the prospect of Mack terrorizing opponents at the line of scrimmage for at least the near future, defense is the lone area where the Raiders seem likely to improve under Gruden. New defensive coordinator Paul Guenther, whose has spent the past 4 season seasons as the Bengals DC, should help bolster the development of their key young players (safety Karl Joseph, cornerback Gareon Conley, inside linebacker Marquel Lee) and while the aforementioned geriatric additions were head-scratching, they also brought in some solid veterans (outside linebacker Tahir Whitehead, cornerbacks Rashaan Melvin and Shareece Wright) that should help sure up the depth at positions where they had consistent problems last year. Real shame about the rest of the team and coaching staff though.
Bottom Line:
The Raiders currently don't have Khalil Mack, hired a coach who hasn't been on an NFL sideline since 2007 and have a considerably older roster than they did a year ago. Definitely no way this could end up going horribly wrong!
Projected Standings:
1.Los Angeles Chargers (10-6)
2.Kansas City Chiefs (8-8)
3.Denver Broncos (7-9)
4.Oakland Raiders (4-12)
Tuesday, August 28, 2018
As We Proceed Episodes #22 and #23
On a pair of action-packed August episodes of As We Proceed, Feliciano and I discuss the mysterious disappearance of Lil Pump's Harverd Dropout LP, Nicki Minaj's Trump-esque Twitter rant after failing to debut at #1 on the Billboard Top 200 album chart, Denzel Curry's TAB1300, Minaj's Queen and much, much more. Both hour-long take quakes can be streamed on the audio platform of your choice below:
Soundcloud:
"Finish Em' Zel!" (Recorded July 31st):
"SWAE LEE IS AUTOTUNE SWEDISH CHEF?" (Recorded August 21st):
iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/as-we-proceed/id1122163104?mt=2
Soundcloud:
"Finish Em' Zel!" (Recorded July 31st):
"SWAE LEE IS AUTOTUNE SWEDISH CHEF?" (Recorded August 21st):
iTunes: https://itunes.apple.com/us/podcast/as-we-proceed/id1122163104?mt=2
Monday, August 27, 2018
The Best and Worst of Zoe Kravitz
“The Best and Worst of” series chronicles the career
highlights and lowlights of an actor starring in one of the week's
new theatrical releases. This week, I take a look at the filmography
of “Kin” star Zoe Kravitz.
Films starring Zoe Kravitz that I've seen:
It's Kind of a Funny Story
X-Men: First Class
After Earth
Divergent
Insurgent
Mad Max: Fury Road
Dope
Allegiant
The Lego Batman Movie
Rough Night
Gemini
Best Performance: Dope (2015)
Shamiek Moore, Tony Revolori, Kiersey Clemons, Blake Anderson and Chanel Iman may have had showier and/or more comedically-rich roles, but Kravitz may be the unsung hero among Dope's terrific ensemble. As Nakia-the love interest of Malcolm (Moore) who indirectly sets the primary plot into motion, Kravitz's wise, even-keeled presence helps ground this (mostly) implausible coming-of-age-story in some sort of reality.
Worst Performance: Mad Max: Fury Road (2015)
The failure of this performance honestly has nothing to do with Kravitz. Every character that wasn't named Max, Furiousa, Nux or Immortan Joe in this vastly overrated action flick was a completely disposable presence that sat idly in the background while an extensive, rarely-exciting straight line chase scene played out in front of them.
Best Film: Dope (2015)
After putting out a string of mediocre romantic comedies, writer/director Rick Famuyiwa (The Wood) gloriously returned to his coming-of-age story roots here. Dope's entertaining characters, oddball sense of humor and aforementioned top-notch efforts from its ensemble cast made it a true standout in a genre that has seen its fair share of excellence in recent years.
Worst Film: After Earth (2013)
I actually feel kind of bad picking After Earth to fill this slot because I sincerely don't think it's anywhere near as bad as the popular opinion has made it out to be. However, I'm not going to pretend like I view Will Smith's passion project in a particularly positive light either. Thanks to some uneven pacing and a pretty horrendous performance from Will's beloved son Jaden in the co-leading role, After Earth ends up being a below average post-apocalyptic survival story that has all but completely disintegrated from my memory.
Thank you for reading this week's edition of “The Best and Worst of”. The next victim of my praise and ire will be “The Nun” star Demian Bichir.
Films starring Zoe Kravitz that I've seen:
It's Kind of a Funny Story
X-Men: First Class
After Earth
Divergent
Insurgent
Mad Max: Fury Road
Dope
Allegiant
The Lego Batman Movie
Rough Night
Gemini
Best Performance: Dope (2015)
Shamiek Moore, Tony Revolori, Kiersey Clemons, Blake Anderson and Chanel Iman may have had showier and/or more comedically-rich roles, but Kravitz may be the unsung hero among Dope's terrific ensemble. As Nakia-the love interest of Malcolm (Moore) who indirectly sets the primary plot into motion, Kravitz's wise, even-keeled presence helps ground this (mostly) implausible coming-of-age-story in some sort of reality.
Worst Performance: Mad Max: Fury Road (2015)
The failure of this performance honestly has nothing to do with Kravitz. Every character that wasn't named Max, Furiousa, Nux or Immortan Joe in this vastly overrated action flick was a completely disposable presence that sat idly in the background while an extensive, rarely-exciting straight line chase scene played out in front of them.
Best Film: Dope (2015)
After putting out a string of mediocre romantic comedies, writer/director Rick Famuyiwa (The Wood) gloriously returned to his coming-of-age story roots here. Dope's entertaining characters, oddball sense of humor and aforementioned top-notch efforts from its ensemble cast made it a true standout in a genre that has seen its fair share of excellence in recent years.
Worst Film: After Earth (2013)
I actually feel kind of bad picking After Earth to fill this slot because I sincerely don't think it's anywhere near as bad as the popular opinion has made it out to be. However, I'm not going to pretend like I view Will Smith's passion project in a particularly positive light either. Thanks to some uneven pacing and a pretty horrendous performance from Will's beloved son Jaden in the co-leading role, After Earth ends up being a below average post-apocalyptic survival story that has all but completely disintegrated from my memory.
Thank you for reading this week's edition of “The Best and Worst of”. The next victim of my praise and ire will be “The Nun” star Demian Bichir.
Friday, August 24, 2018
Highly Ranked Players to Avoid in Fantasy Football: 2018 Edition
Going through each site's fantasy rankings is always an interesting experience. You get to scope out the range where the players you covet are going, peg potential sleepers and of course, occasionally get taken aback by where certain players you don't trust are being selected. This list is dedicated to the latter. Hope you enjoy!
Quarterback: Deshaun Watson (Texans) (ADP: Yahoo!: 37.8 ESPN: 52.5 NFL.com: 44.3)
The Deshaun Watson fantasy hype train is easily the strongest of any non-RB going into the draft. He's near-universally projected to be the #1 fantasy QB and his ADP is currently only behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady on all 3 major fantasy sites. As impressive as he was as a rookie, expecting a (nearly) 23-year old coming off a torn ACL with limited starting experience (7 games) to put up 4,500+ total yards and 30+ TD is a pretty bonkers leap of faith. If you want to spend a high pick on a dual-threat QB, wait a little bit and take Russell Wilson or Cam Newton instead.
Dishonorable Mentions: Carson Wentz (Eagles), Drew Brees (Saints), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
Running Back: Jerick McKinnon (49ers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 30.6 ESPN: 30.9 NFL.com: 31.2)
Kyle Shanahan's lauded scheme allowed Carlos Hyde to enjoy a quietly productive season as a dual-threat back (1,290 YDS from scrimmage and 8 TD's) in 2017. The 49ers new starting back Jerick McKinnon is far from a lock to enjoy a similar level of success. McKinnon has failed to reach 1,000 YDS from scrimmage in all of his 4 NFL season to-date, has no experience as an uncontested starter and despite having a frame that seems ideal for breaking through piles on the goal line (5'9, 216 lbs), he seems to be immune to crossing the plain (only 12 TD's on 611 career touches). Even with the position's questionable depth, there are higher upside RB2 options (Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard, Alex Collins) going around the same time as McKinnon, if not a bit later.
Dishonorable Mentions: Dalvin Cook (Vikings), LeSean McCoy (Bills), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper (Raiders) (ADP: Yahoo!: 38.2 ESPN: 41.2 NFL.com: 52.1)
Despite hauling in a career-high 7 TD's, 2017 was a nightmare for Amari Cooper as he finished the year with a paltry 680 YDS on 48 receptions and dropped 5+ passes for a 3rd straight season. Coming off an absolute bust of season like that, there's absolutely no reason to even consider paying a WR2 price for him this year. Shaky hands aren't something that go away plus I have absolutely no faith in the new Raiders coaching regime's (Jon Gruden, offensive coordinator Greg Olsen) ability to put an efficient, reliable product on the field.
Dishonorable Mentions: Josh Gordon (Browns), Corey Davis (Titans), Allen Robinson (Bears)
Tight End: Jimmy Graham (Packers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 48.9 ESPN: 54.8 NFL.com: 51.4)
Even though he's lost a step in his early 30's, Graham is still a legit redzone threat (16 over the past 2 season) and his TD total could get even higher now that he has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. However, his low yardage total (520 on 57 REC) and pretty high volume of duds (5 games with 10 yards or less and only 3 with 50+ yards) during the 2015 season makes him a poor value at his current early-to-mid 5th round ADP.
Dishonorable Mentions: Greg Olsen (Panthers), Evan Engram (Giants), Jordan Reed (Redskins)
Defense/Special Teams: Houston Texans (ADP: Yahoo!: 94.4 ESPN: 120.8 NFL.com: 80.0)
Fantasy sites seems to be very confident that J.J. Watt can come back in and make a monstrous impact right away after missing the bulk of the last 2 seasons with major back and leg injuries. Even if he does, the talent around him outside of fellow pass-rushers Whitney Mercilus and Jadevon Clowney isn't exactly abundant. Their secondary is incredibly suspect, they don't have a lot of takeaway threats on the roster and most importantly, they are coming off a 2017 season where they ranked dead last in scoring defense. They might turn out to be a decent group when the dust settles on the season, but projecting them as a top-5 fantasy defense heading into the season is an incredibly optimistic take that you should probably ignore if your someone who likes to take defenses somewhere between the 7th and 10th round.
Dishonorable Mentions: Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks
Quarterback: Deshaun Watson (Texans) (ADP: Yahoo!: 37.8 ESPN: 52.5 NFL.com: 44.3)
The Deshaun Watson fantasy hype train is easily the strongest of any non-RB going into the draft. He's near-universally projected to be the #1 fantasy QB and his ADP is currently only behind Aaron Rodgers and Tom Brady on all 3 major fantasy sites. As impressive as he was as a rookie, expecting a (nearly) 23-year old coming off a torn ACL with limited starting experience (7 games) to put up 4,500+ total yards and 30+ TD is a pretty bonkers leap of faith. If you want to spend a high pick on a dual-threat QB, wait a little bit and take Russell Wilson or Cam Newton instead.
Dishonorable Mentions: Carson Wentz (Eagles), Drew Brees (Saints), Jimmy Garoppolo (49ers)
Running Back: Jerick McKinnon (49ers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 30.6 ESPN: 30.9 NFL.com: 31.2)
Kyle Shanahan's lauded scheme allowed Carlos Hyde to enjoy a quietly productive season as a dual-threat back (1,290 YDS from scrimmage and 8 TD's) in 2017. The 49ers new starting back Jerick McKinnon is far from a lock to enjoy a similar level of success. McKinnon has failed to reach 1,000 YDS from scrimmage in all of his 4 NFL season to-date, has no experience as an uncontested starter and despite having a frame that seems ideal for breaking through piles on the goal line (5'9, 216 lbs), he seems to be immune to crossing the plain (only 12 TD's on 611 career touches). Even with the position's questionable depth, there are higher upside RB2 options (Devonta Freeman, Jordan Howard, Alex Collins) going around the same time as McKinnon, if not a bit later.
Dishonorable Mentions: Dalvin Cook (Vikings), LeSean McCoy (Bills), Joe Mixon (Bengals)
Wide Receiver: Amari Cooper (Raiders) (ADP: Yahoo!: 38.2 ESPN: 41.2 NFL.com: 52.1)
Despite hauling in a career-high 7 TD's, 2017 was a nightmare for Amari Cooper as he finished the year with a paltry 680 YDS on 48 receptions and dropped 5+ passes for a 3rd straight season. Coming off an absolute bust of season like that, there's absolutely no reason to even consider paying a WR2 price for him this year. Shaky hands aren't something that go away plus I have absolutely no faith in the new Raiders coaching regime's (Jon Gruden, offensive coordinator Greg Olsen) ability to put an efficient, reliable product on the field.
Dishonorable Mentions: Josh Gordon (Browns), Corey Davis (Titans), Allen Robinson (Bears)
Tight End: Jimmy Graham (Packers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 48.9 ESPN: 54.8 NFL.com: 51.4)
Even though he's lost a step in his early 30's, Graham is still a legit redzone threat (16 over the past 2 season) and his TD total could get even higher now that he has Aaron Rodgers throwing to him. However, his low yardage total (520 on 57 REC) and pretty high volume of duds (5 games with 10 yards or less and only 3 with 50+ yards) during the 2015 season makes him a poor value at his current early-to-mid 5th round ADP.
Dishonorable Mentions: Greg Olsen (Panthers), Evan Engram (Giants), Jordan Reed (Redskins)
Defense/Special Teams: Houston Texans (ADP: Yahoo!: 94.4 ESPN: 120.8 NFL.com: 80.0)
Fantasy sites seems to be very confident that J.J. Watt can come back in and make a monstrous impact right away after missing the bulk of the last 2 seasons with major back and leg injuries. Even if he does, the talent around him outside of fellow pass-rushers Whitney Mercilus and Jadevon Clowney isn't exactly abundant. Their secondary is incredibly suspect, they don't have a lot of takeaway threats on the roster and most importantly, they are coming off a 2017 season where they ranked dead last in scoring defense. They might turn out to be a decent group when the dust settles on the season, but projecting them as a top-5 fantasy defense heading into the season is an incredibly optimistic take that you should probably ignore if your someone who likes to take defenses somewhere between the 7th and 10th round.
Dishonorable Mentions: Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos, Seattle Seahawks
Thursday, August 23, 2018
2018 NFL Preview: NFC South
Atlanta Falcons
2017 Record: 10-6 (3rd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dan Quinn (4th season)
Notable Additions: G Brandon Fusco, CB Justin Bethel, S Ron Parker
Notable Departures: WR Taylor Gabriel, DT Dontari Poe, DE Adrian Clayborn
-As I mentioned in my fantasy football sleeper column earlier this week, I'm baffled by the dark cloud of doubt that's surrounding Matt Ryan going into this season. Sure his TD total in 2017 was underwhelming as hell (20, which was less than future HOFer's Case Keenum and Andy Dalton) and he's not likely to match the eye-popping production he had under Kyle Shanahan with Steve Sarkisian running the offense, but to peg him as a guy who is on his last legs as a starting NFL quarterback is ridiculous to me. Ryan has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 7 consecutive seasons, hasn't completed less than 64.5% of his passes since 2011 and has the luxury of having enough weapons around him at the skill positions (including Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) that opposing defenses can't afford to hone in on just 1 player. I fully expect his numbers to be up across the board this season after his "down year" in 2017 and once again have this Falcons squad in the playoff hunt.
-Rookie wideout Calvin Ridley is a fascinating potential X-factor on this offense. His route-running prowess gives him a higher floor than recently-departed straight-line burner Taylor Gabriel, who was their #3 wideout for the past 2 seasons and elusiveness after-the-catch makes him a more exciting option than incumbent #2 WR Momhaed Sanu. If the playmaking ability and strong chemistry with Ryan he's flashed in the preseason carries over to the regular season, Ridley could be a legit Offensive ROTY contender.
-Settling the Julio Jones contract dispute early in camp was a very wise move by Thomas Dimitroff. Not having a receiver of his caliber on the field for an extended amount of time would've been highly detrimental to the offense plus keeping a veteran leader like him happy is essential to keeping overall team morale from falling off. Maybe Les Snead and Reggie McKenzie should take some notes from Dimitroff on how to deal with holdouts in a timely, levelheaded manner...
-The seemingly petty defensive coordinator change the Falcons made immediately after their historic Super Bowl 51 meltdown actually paid dividends in 2017. Marquand Manuel led this group to strong numbers across the board (8th in scoring defense, 9th in run defense, 12th in pass defense) and helped secure some wins in close games while their offense went through rough patches of varying lengths throughout the year. Upon examining their roster, you have to feel good about their odds of being even better in 2018. No members of their havoc-wreaking young corps (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Grady Jarrett, De'Vondre Campbell, Takk McKinnley) seems like they've hit their peak yet, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford are one of the best corner tandems in the game and with the possible exception of defensive end in the wake of Adrian Clayborn's departure, no position stands out as a truly crippling weakness. The Falcons very well could have the most underrated defense in the league right now and I believe that claim will only grow stronger following the conclusion of the 2018 season.
Bottom Line:
The Falcons have been a damn fine football team since Dan Quinn took over as head coach and it would be a surprise if they weren't very competitive once again this year.
-As I mentioned in my fantasy football sleeper column earlier this week, I'm baffled by the dark cloud of doubt that's surrounding Matt Ryan going into this season. Sure his TD total in 2017 was underwhelming as hell (20, which was less than future HOFer's Case Keenum and Andy Dalton) and he's not likely to match the eye-popping production he had under Kyle Shanahan with Steve Sarkisian running the offense, but to peg him as a guy who is on his last legs as a starting NFL quarterback is ridiculous to me. Ryan has thrown for over 4,000 yards in 7 consecutive seasons, hasn't completed less than 64.5% of his passes since 2011 and has the luxury of having enough weapons around him at the skill positions (including Julio Jones, Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman) that opposing defenses can't afford to hone in on just 1 player. I fully expect his numbers to be up across the board this season after his "down year" in 2017 and once again have this Falcons squad in the playoff hunt.
-Rookie wideout Calvin Ridley is a fascinating potential X-factor on this offense. His route-running prowess gives him a higher floor than recently-departed straight-line burner Taylor Gabriel, who was their #3 wideout for the past 2 seasons and elusiveness after-the-catch makes him a more exciting option than incumbent #2 WR Momhaed Sanu. If the playmaking ability and strong chemistry with Ryan he's flashed in the preseason carries over to the regular season, Ridley could be a legit Offensive ROTY contender.
-Settling the Julio Jones contract dispute early in camp was a very wise move by Thomas Dimitroff. Not having a receiver of his caliber on the field for an extended amount of time would've been highly detrimental to the offense plus keeping a veteran leader like him happy is essential to keeping overall team morale from falling off. Maybe Les Snead and Reggie McKenzie should take some notes from Dimitroff on how to deal with holdouts in a timely, levelheaded manner...
-The seemingly petty defensive coordinator change the Falcons made immediately after their historic Super Bowl 51 meltdown actually paid dividends in 2017. Marquand Manuel led this group to strong numbers across the board (8th in scoring defense, 9th in run defense, 12th in pass defense) and helped secure some wins in close games while their offense went through rough patches of varying lengths throughout the year. Upon examining their roster, you have to feel good about their odds of being even better in 2018. No members of their havoc-wreaking young corps (Deion Jones, Keanu Neal, Grady Jarrett, De'Vondre Campbell, Takk McKinnley) seems like they've hit their peak yet, Desmond Trufant and Robert Alford are one of the best corner tandems in the game and with the possible exception of defensive end in the wake of Adrian Clayborn's departure, no position stands out as a truly crippling weakness. The Falcons very well could have the most underrated defense in the league right now and I believe that claim will only grow stronger following the conclusion of the 2018 season.
Bottom Line:
The Falcons have been a damn fine football team since Dan Quinn took over as head coach and it would be a surprise if they weren't very competitive once again this year.
Carolina Panthers
2017 Record: 11-5 (2nd in NFC South)
Head Coach: Ron Rivera (8th season)
Notable Additions: RB C.J. Anderson, DT Dontari Poe, S Da'Norris Searcy
Notable Departures: G Andrew Norwell, DT Star Lotulelei, RB Jonathan Stewart
-Panthers fans seem to be very excited about the firing of OC Mike Shula. While it might be a case of me romanticizing a team that I'm mostly watching from afar, I was pretty impressed with what Shula was able to do throughout his 4-year tenure as the architect of the Panthers offensive attack. His playcalling is perhaps a little too conservative at times, but he was always to field a group that was at the very least competent, despite not always having a particularly deep or impressive arsenal of talent at his disposal. What's confusing me even more than the joy over Shula's dismissal is how jazzed up they are about Norv F'n Turner taking over. Turner is a primitive-minded retread who hasn't exactly fared super well in either of the OC gigs he's had (Browns in 2013, Vikings from 2014-16) since he was let go as Chargers HC following the 2012 season. Only 1 of the past 4 offenses he's ran have finished in the top half of the league in scoring and even if Greg Olsen bounces back after an injury-plagued 2017 and rookie wideout D.J. Moore is able to make an impact right away, something tells me that this not-so-deep-or-talented group will be able to him break him out of the rut he's been in since he planted the seeds for the Cowboys Triplets-era dynasty in the early-90's. I'll be fascinated to see how long this Turner lovefest in Charlotte lasts if this offense ends up sputtering out of the gate.
-The departure of star guard Andrew Norwell in free agency delivered a huge blow to this offensive line before they even stepped on the field for their 1st OTA of the season . Now that reigning All-Pro right tackle Daryl Williams is done for the year after suffering a torn MCL during the 1st week of training camp, this line all of a sudden looks it might not even been functional in 2018. Trai Turner has been pretty inconsistent for much of the past 2 seasons, center Ryan Kalil is a brittle shell of his former self that's on the brink of retirement, his brother Matt, who plays left tackle, is a well below-average player who also has a hard time staying healthy and the less said about the collection of jabronis (Taylor Moton, Jeremiah Sirles, Amini Silatolu) that are going to be tasked with taking the spots Norwell and Williams held in 2017, the better. Given the coaching staff's commitment to protecting Cam Newton from the dangers of improvised downfield runs resulting from broken plays whenever possible at this point in his career, increased uncertainty along the offensive line was the last thing they needed.
-I strongly believe that C.J. Anderson was one of the more underrated free agent acquisitions of the entire offseason. The 27-year old's power-based running style makes for an excellent complement to the flashiness of Christian McCaffery and his effectiveness as a starter with the Broncos means you can preserve the freshness of and/or limit the beatings the slight, 2nd-year speedster takes over the course of a 16-game season by giving Anderson a healthy number of touches (10+) per game. If decaying artifact Jonathan Stewart can scoop up 680 YDS and 6 TD's as McCaffery's sidekick, Anderson should be able to finish the year with numbers that are least at slightly better than that.
For the 2nd straight year, the Panthers are heading into the season with a new defensive coordinator after Steve Wilks was hired to be the new head coach of the Cardinals. Fortunately for them, they once again were blessed with the luxury of filling that important vacancy by promoting a longtime assistant from within their organization. Eric Washington has been the defensive line coach since Ron Rivera was hired as HC in 2011 and while he's no lock to be some kind of virtuoso as a shotcaller for the whole defense, the abundance of familiarity he has with the personnel along with the level of talent that's present through the bulk of this defense (Luke Kuechly, Kawann Short, Thomas Davis, Mike Adams, Shaq Thompson, newcomer Dontari Poe) should make the change in power pretty seamless.
Bottom Line:
The Panthers are a talented, hard-nosed squad with a winning pedigree, but their potentially serious issues along the offensive line could be enough to keep them out of the playoffs
-Panthers fans seem to be very excited about the firing of OC Mike Shula. While it might be a case of me romanticizing a team that I'm mostly watching from afar, I was pretty impressed with what Shula was able to do throughout his 4-year tenure as the architect of the Panthers offensive attack. His playcalling is perhaps a little too conservative at times, but he was always to field a group that was at the very least competent, despite not always having a particularly deep or impressive arsenal of talent at his disposal. What's confusing me even more than the joy over Shula's dismissal is how jazzed up they are about Norv F'n Turner taking over. Turner is a primitive-minded retread who hasn't exactly fared super well in either of the OC gigs he's had (Browns in 2013, Vikings from 2014-16) since he was let go as Chargers HC following the 2012 season. Only 1 of the past 4 offenses he's ran have finished in the top half of the league in scoring and even if Greg Olsen bounces back after an injury-plagued 2017 and rookie wideout D.J. Moore is able to make an impact right away, something tells me that this not-so-deep-or-talented group will be able to him break him out of the rut he's been in since he planted the seeds for the Cowboys Triplets-era dynasty in the early-90's. I'll be fascinated to see how long this Turner lovefest in Charlotte lasts if this offense ends up sputtering out of the gate.
-The departure of star guard Andrew Norwell in free agency delivered a huge blow to this offensive line before they even stepped on the field for their 1st OTA of the season . Now that reigning All-Pro right tackle Daryl Williams is done for the year after suffering a torn MCL during the 1st week of training camp, this line all of a sudden looks it might not even been functional in 2018. Trai Turner has been pretty inconsistent for much of the past 2 seasons, center Ryan Kalil is a brittle shell of his former self that's on the brink of retirement, his brother Matt, who plays left tackle, is a well below-average player who also has a hard time staying healthy and the less said about the collection of jabronis (Taylor Moton, Jeremiah Sirles, Amini Silatolu) that are going to be tasked with taking the spots Norwell and Williams held in 2017, the better. Given the coaching staff's commitment to protecting Cam Newton from the dangers of improvised downfield runs resulting from broken plays whenever possible at this point in his career, increased uncertainty along the offensive line was the last thing they needed.
-I strongly believe that C.J. Anderson was one of the more underrated free agent acquisitions of the entire offseason. The 27-year old's power-based running style makes for an excellent complement to the flashiness of Christian McCaffery and his effectiveness as a starter with the Broncos means you can preserve the freshness of and/or limit the beatings the slight, 2nd-year speedster takes over the course of a 16-game season by giving Anderson a healthy number of touches (10+) per game. If decaying artifact Jonathan Stewart can scoop up 680 YDS and 6 TD's as McCaffery's sidekick, Anderson should be able to finish the year with numbers that are least at slightly better than that.
For the 2nd straight year, the Panthers are heading into the season with a new defensive coordinator after Steve Wilks was hired to be the new head coach of the Cardinals. Fortunately for them, they once again were blessed with the luxury of filling that important vacancy by promoting a longtime assistant from within their organization. Eric Washington has been the defensive line coach since Ron Rivera was hired as HC in 2011 and while he's no lock to be some kind of virtuoso as a shotcaller for the whole defense, the abundance of familiarity he has with the personnel along with the level of talent that's present through the bulk of this defense (Luke Kuechly, Kawann Short, Thomas Davis, Mike Adams, Shaq Thompson, newcomer Dontari Poe) should make the change in power pretty seamless.
Bottom Line:
The Panthers are a talented, hard-nosed squad with a winning pedigree, but their potentially serious issues along the offensive line could be enough to keep them out of the playoffs
New Orleans Saints
2017 Record: 11-5 (1st in NFC South)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (12th season)
Head Coach: Sean Payton (12th season)
Notable Additions: CB Patrick Robinson, ILB Demario Davis, WR Cameron Meredith
Notable Departures: WR Willie Snead, S Kenny Vaccaro, TE Coby Fleener
-I'm completely indifferent on the Saints, but that didn't stop me from getting irrationally confused and pissed off by the Minneapolis Miracle. Getting eliminated from a playoffs on a play that can only be attributed as a tremendous stroke of luck for their opponent is about the worst possible break you can have in the NFL. As the 2015 Seahawks, 2017 Falcons and countless others have proved over the years, tough losses like that can absolutely bleed into the following season. Hell, Alvin Kamara just went off about it at length in his Bleacher Report profile that was published earlier this month. Even with Kamara's expletive-filled outburst, I think the Saints have enough dynamic talent on both sides of the ball and experienced, level-headed individuals on their roster to not let that crushing Divisional Round defeat from 2017 have a significant effect on their play in 2018.
-Speaking of Kamara, his electric, dual-threat playmaking ability made him a force of nature in the pro's right away. Now the biggest challenge for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year will be sustaining that success moving forward. With running mate Mark Ingram suspended for the 4 games of the year for "illegally" taking Adderall, his ability to replicate his success will be tested right away. As versatile and elusive as Kamara is, he isn't exactly built to handle the workload of your typical workhorse back . Plus with the guarantee of Kamara securing the vast majority of the backfield touches while Ingram is away from the team, there's a predictability factor that will allow opposing defenses to make stopping him the focal point of their gameplan. Even when Ingram returns to the fold in early October, expecting Kamara to match or exceed the absurd YDS per touch (8.1 on 201 touches) he averaged he a year ago would be unfair and unrealistic. All this cynicism is basically a drawn-out way of saying that despite his immense talent and a near-guarantee that he'll get more touches, there's a very good chance that Kamara's numbers will take a hit in 2018.
-The starting receiver slot alongside budding star Michael Thomas is wide open and given Ted Ginn's well-known limitations as a receiver, Cameron Meredith has a golden opportunity to take it. Prior to missing all of 2017 with a torn ACL, the 25-year old, ex-Bears wideout turned some heads around the league by putting together a nice 2016 campaign (66 REC, 888 YDS, 4 TD) with a legit carousel of QB's (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley) throwing him the ball. Could those numbers be attributed to him being the only member of the receiving corps to appear in all 16 games that year? Possibly. Is it alarming that Bears didn't match the incredibly modest offer sheet the Saints signed him to (2 year/$9 million/$4.5 mil guaranteed)? Absolutely. Regardless of these potential red flags, he's still a fairly intriguing, low-risk/high-reward player that could sneak up on people and gain a semi-prominent role on this already stacked offense.
-The Saints fielding a pretty good defense (10th in points against, 17th in total yards allowed, tied for 7th in sacks, tied for 9th in takeaways) was honestly one of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season. Blown coverages and a staggering inability to slow down the running game has been such a common theme of Sean Payton's post-Super Bowl victory years in New Orleans that its absence was almost surreal. Call me naïve given their inability to sustain anything that even resembles consistent productivity on this side of the ball, but I actually think this D is going to be even better in 2018. They addressed a couple of glaring problem areas in free agency (slot corner, inside linebacker) with the additions of unheralded veterans Patrick Robinson and Demario Davis-who are both coming off career years, placing a high-ceiling rookie like Marcus Davenport alongside established wrecking ball Cameron Jordan at defensive end could elevate this already solid pass-rush to another level and I believe that they're young defensive back corps led by Ken Crawley, Marcus Williams and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore is absolutely legit. Only widespread regression or the return of DC Dennis Allen's pre-2017 stoogery could get in the way of stunting this group's immense potential.
Bottom Line:
If they can keep their heads screwed on and the improvement their defense showed last season wasn't a fluke, the Saints should be in contention for their 2nd straight division title and subsequent deep playoff run.
-I'm completely indifferent on the Saints, but that didn't stop me from getting irrationally confused and pissed off by the Minneapolis Miracle. Getting eliminated from a playoffs on a play that can only be attributed as a tremendous stroke of luck for their opponent is about the worst possible break you can have in the NFL. As the 2015 Seahawks, 2017 Falcons and countless others have proved over the years, tough losses like that can absolutely bleed into the following season. Hell, Alvin Kamara just went off about it at length in his Bleacher Report profile that was published earlier this month. Even with Kamara's expletive-filled outburst, I think the Saints have enough dynamic talent on both sides of the ball and experienced, level-headed individuals on their roster to not let that crushing Divisional Round defeat from 2017 have a significant effect on their play in 2018.
-Speaking of Kamara, his electric, dual-threat playmaking ability made him a force of nature in the pro's right away. Now the biggest challenge for the reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year will be sustaining that success moving forward. With running mate Mark Ingram suspended for the 4 games of the year for "illegally" taking Adderall, his ability to replicate his success will be tested right away. As versatile and elusive as Kamara is, he isn't exactly built to handle the workload of your typical workhorse back . Plus with the guarantee of Kamara securing the vast majority of the backfield touches while Ingram is away from the team, there's a predictability factor that will allow opposing defenses to make stopping him the focal point of their gameplan. Even when Ingram returns to the fold in early October, expecting Kamara to match or exceed the absurd YDS per touch (8.1 on 201 touches) he averaged he a year ago would be unfair and unrealistic. All this cynicism is basically a drawn-out way of saying that despite his immense talent and a near-guarantee that he'll get more touches, there's a very good chance that Kamara's numbers will take a hit in 2018.
-The starting receiver slot alongside budding star Michael Thomas is wide open and given Ted Ginn's well-known limitations as a receiver, Cameron Meredith has a golden opportunity to take it. Prior to missing all of 2017 with a torn ACL, the 25-year old, ex-Bears wideout turned some heads around the league by putting together a nice 2016 campaign (66 REC, 888 YDS, 4 TD) with a legit carousel of QB's (Jay Cutler, Brian Hoyer, Matt Barkley) throwing him the ball. Could those numbers be attributed to him being the only member of the receiving corps to appear in all 16 games that year? Possibly. Is it alarming that Bears didn't match the incredibly modest offer sheet the Saints signed him to (2 year/$9 million/$4.5 mil guaranteed)? Absolutely. Regardless of these potential red flags, he's still a fairly intriguing, low-risk/high-reward player that could sneak up on people and gain a semi-prominent role on this already stacked offense.
-The Saints fielding a pretty good defense (10th in points against, 17th in total yards allowed, tied for 7th in sacks, tied for 9th in takeaways) was honestly one of the biggest surprises of the 2017 season. Blown coverages and a staggering inability to slow down the running game has been such a common theme of Sean Payton's post-Super Bowl victory years in New Orleans that its absence was almost surreal. Call me naïve given their inability to sustain anything that even resembles consistent productivity on this side of the ball, but I actually think this D is going to be even better in 2018. They addressed a couple of glaring problem areas in free agency (slot corner, inside linebacker) with the additions of unheralded veterans Patrick Robinson and Demario Davis-who are both coming off career years, placing a high-ceiling rookie like Marcus Davenport alongside established wrecking ball Cameron Jordan at defensive end could elevate this already solid pass-rush to another level and I believe that they're young defensive back corps led by Ken Crawley, Marcus Williams and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Marshon Lattimore is absolutely legit. Only widespread regression or the return of DC Dennis Allen's pre-2017 stoogery could get in the way of stunting this group's immense potential.
Bottom Line:
If they can keep their heads screwed on and the improvement their defense showed last season wasn't a fluke, the Saints should be in contention for their 2nd straight division title and subsequent deep playoff run.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
2017 Record: 5-11 (4th in NFC South)
Head Coach: Dirk Koetter (3rd season)
Notable Additions: DE Jason Pierre-Paul, C Ryan Jensen, DE Vinny Curry
Notable Departures: RB Doug Martin, DT Chris Baker, G J.R. Sweezy
-Outside of Hue Jackson, no coach stands a greater chance of being fired mid-season than Dirk Koetter. Almost all the good will he built up from his inaugural 9-7 campaign in 2016 quickly vanished following a disastrous 2017 season where the team squandered its lofty preseason expectations thanks to questionable offensive playcalling, largely horrific defensive play and down years from a number of their most valuable players (Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Doug Martin). How he deals with the adversity of Winston's 3-game suspension and figuring out how the touches will be distributed in their questionable running committee (Jaquizz Rodgers, rookie Ronald Jones and current projected "starter" Peyton Barber) could end up playing a huge factor in deciding how long Koetter sticks around the good ol' Pirate Ship.
-Even if you set aside the necessary morality questions that come with the decision of making a man who has a checkered history of both alleged (sexual assault) and admitted (groping an Uber driver without consent) predatory sexual behavior the face of your franchise for the next decade, committing to Winston long-term would be a massive mistake. The 24-year old's raw statistics are far from awful (4,000+ yards and 20+ TD's in 2 of his 3 seasons in the league), but his accuracy woes, habit of turning the ball over in key situations and lengthy struggles against quality competition have to call his ability to be a reliable franchise quarterback into question. While his 3-game suspension stemming from the aforementioned Uber groping will likely table long-term extensions for the rest of the season, a strong 2018 from Winston would force the front office to make a decision on his future with the franchise sooner than they'd probably like to.
-Offensive line play has been a massive crutch for this team over the past several years and with a pair of notorious, turnover prone QB's currently topping the depth chart (Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick) and weak rushing attack trying to establish some momentum after a very 2017 season where they ran for the 5th-least yards in the league, it's imperative that they take some steps forward in 2018. GM Jason Licht understood something needed to be done to help get this line out of their extended funk and did his part by cutting ties with free agent bust J.R. Sweezy, and signing center free agent Ryan Jensen to a lucrative deal (4 years/$42 million/$22 mil guaranteed) in free agency. However, I don't know if these moves will be enough to right the ship. Demar Dotson and Ali Marpet are reliable starters that have been downright dominant at times, but the rest of the group offers up varying degrees of concern. Donovan Smith has failed to materialize into a good, let alone passable left tackle since he was selected 34th overall back in 2015, Caleb Benenoch is a converted tackle who has yet to start a regular season game at guard over the course of 3 year career so far and as great he was with the Ravens last season, Jensen has only 1 year of full-time starting experience under his belt and absolutely fits the profile of a guy who could immediately flame out after signing a big contract. Competent o-line play is essential for an offense that's trying to get back on track and I just don't have any level of confidence that this group is strong or consistent enough as a whole to get the job done.
-No amount of plays made by their respected veteran stars (Lavonte David, Brent Grimes, Gerald McCoy) could prevent this defense from being comically bad last season. They surrendered the most yards in the league (dead last against the pass, 23rd against the run), registered the least sacks (22) and thanks to a surprisingly strong takeaway total (26, tied for 7th in the league), fared slightly better in the scoring defense category (23.9 PPG, tied for 22nd in the league). How they're going to fare in 2018 is a serious coin flip. A slew of new additions (Beau Allen, Vinny Curry, Mitch Unrein, rookie Vita Vea and most notably, former Giants dynamo Jason Pierre-Paul) along the defensive line should help improver their run defense and pass rush, but a largely unchanged secondary (all 4 starters are returning and rookie corner Carlton Davis is the only new addition that appears set to receive any notable amount of playing time) will likely limit how many steps forward this group takes this season. The NFC South is not a fun division to have a poor defense in and it's going to take a series of miracles for the Bucs to not get routinely lit up again in 2018.
Bottom Line:
Much of the Bucs history has been defined by underachieving and with Koetter still steering the ship, I expect that not-so-proud tradition to remain in tact for 2018.
-Outside of Hue Jackson, no coach stands a greater chance of being fired mid-season than Dirk Koetter. Almost all the good will he built up from his inaugural 9-7 campaign in 2016 quickly vanished following a disastrous 2017 season where the team squandered its lofty preseason expectations thanks to questionable offensive playcalling, largely horrific defensive play and down years from a number of their most valuable players (Jameis Winston, Mike Evans, Desean Jackson, Doug Martin). How he deals with the adversity of Winston's 3-game suspension and figuring out how the touches will be distributed in their questionable running committee (Jaquizz Rodgers, rookie Ronald Jones and current projected "starter" Peyton Barber) could end up playing a huge factor in deciding how long Koetter sticks around the good ol' Pirate Ship.
-Even if you set aside the necessary morality questions that come with the decision of making a man who has a checkered history of both alleged (sexual assault) and admitted (groping an Uber driver without consent) predatory sexual behavior the face of your franchise for the next decade, committing to Winston long-term would be a massive mistake. The 24-year old's raw statistics are far from awful (4,000+ yards and 20+ TD's in 2 of his 3 seasons in the league), but his accuracy woes, habit of turning the ball over in key situations and lengthy struggles against quality competition have to call his ability to be a reliable franchise quarterback into question. While his 3-game suspension stemming from the aforementioned Uber groping will likely table long-term extensions for the rest of the season, a strong 2018 from Winston would force the front office to make a decision on his future with the franchise sooner than they'd probably like to.
-Offensive line play has been a massive crutch for this team over the past several years and with a pair of notorious, turnover prone QB's currently topping the depth chart (Winston, Ryan Fitzpatrick) and weak rushing attack trying to establish some momentum after a very 2017 season where they ran for the 5th-least yards in the league, it's imperative that they take some steps forward in 2018. GM Jason Licht understood something needed to be done to help get this line out of their extended funk and did his part by cutting ties with free agent bust J.R. Sweezy, and signing center free agent Ryan Jensen to a lucrative deal (4 years/$42 million/$22 mil guaranteed) in free agency. However, I don't know if these moves will be enough to right the ship. Demar Dotson and Ali Marpet are reliable starters that have been downright dominant at times, but the rest of the group offers up varying degrees of concern. Donovan Smith has failed to materialize into a good, let alone passable left tackle since he was selected 34th overall back in 2015, Caleb Benenoch is a converted tackle who has yet to start a regular season game at guard over the course of 3 year career so far and as great he was with the Ravens last season, Jensen has only 1 year of full-time starting experience under his belt and absolutely fits the profile of a guy who could immediately flame out after signing a big contract. Competent o-line play is essential for an offense that's trying to get back on track and I just don't have any level of confidence that this group is strong or consistent enough as a whole to get the job done.
-No amount of plays made by their respected veteran stars (Lavonte David, Brent Grimes, Gerald McCoy) could prevent this defense from being comically bad last season. They surrendered the most yards in the league (dead last against the pass, 23rd against the run), registered the least sacks (22) and thanks to a surprisingly strong takeaway total (26, tied for 7th in the league), fared slightly better in the scoring defense category (23.9 PPG, tied for 22nd in the league). How they're going to fare in 2018 is a serious coin flip. A slew of new additions (Beau Allen, Vinny Curry, Mitch Unrein, rookie Vita Vea and most notably, former Giants dynamo Jason Pierre-Paul) along the defensive line should help improver their run defense and pass rush, but a largely unchanged secondary (all 4 starters are returning and rookie corner Carlton Davis is the only new addition that appears set to receive any notable amount of playing time) will likely limit how many steps forward this group takes this season. The NFC South is not a fun division to have a poor defense in and it's going to take a series of miracles for the Bucs to not get routinely lit up again in 2018.
Bottom Line:
Much of the Bucs history has been defined by underachieving and with Koetter still steering the ship, I expect that not-so-proud tradition to remain in tact for 2018.
Projected Standings:
1.New Orleans Saints (11-5)
2.Atlanta Falcons (10-6)
3.Carolina Panthers (8-8)
4.Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-12)
Tuesday, August 21, 2018
Fantasy Football Sleeper Mania: 2018 Edition
Late-round steals are often times a cornerstone of success in fantasy football. Like everything else in this game/life-derailing obsession, finding these diamonds in the rough requires some stats/general knowledge of every team's depth chart, baseless speculation about how a team plan to utilize said player and above all, a whole lot of luck. Here are the guys I'd recommend taking a "calculated" risk this season.
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons) (ADP: Yahoo!: 107.3 ESPN: 108.8 NFL.com: 131.6)
How Ryan ended up going in the same range as inconsistent young QB's like Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott is beyond me. The Falcons franchise signalcaller is a perennial threat to clear 4,000 passing yards and has enough talent around him at the skill positions to conceivably improve upon his middling TD total (20) from a year ago.
Honorable Mentions: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Alex Smith (Redskins)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Sam Darnold (Jets)
Running Back: Latavius Murray (Vikings) (ADP: Yahoo!: 123.4 ESPN: 133.5 NFL.com: 146.8)
Overdrafting RB's due to the very shaky depth at the position is a harsh reality fantasy owners are going to have to deal with this season. That being said, Murray's very low price tag proves that you can still find high-upside players in the latter stages of the draft. Even if Dalvin Cook seamlessly bounces back from the torn ACL that shortened his rookie season, Murray's wealth of experience as a starter (42 in 4 healthy seasons as a pro) and proficiency around the goalline (26 TD's in the past 3 seasons) should make him an important cog in the Vikings offensive attack.
Honorable Mentions: Chris Carson (Seahawks), Corey Clement (Eagles), Duke Johnson Jr. (Browns)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Kerryon Johnson (Lions)
Wide Receiver: Marquise Goodwin (49ers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 104.6 ESPN: 76.9 NFL.com: 121.2)
Goodwin was the top beneficiary of Jimmy Garoppolo's arrival in San Francisco last November (384 YDS and 1 TD in the final 5 games of the year) and even with sneakily productive possession receiver Pierre Garcon retuning to the fold, I don't expect that to change this season. His pretty expansive route tree, top-end speed and strong rapport with Garoppolo makes 1,000+ yards, 5-8 TD season very attainable.
Honorable Mentions: Cooper Kuup (Rams), Kelvin Benjamin (Bills), Kenny Golladay (Lions)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Calvin Ridley (Falcons)
Tight End: Jack Doyle (Colts) (ADP: Yahoo!: 126.2 ESPN: 106.9 NFL.com: 99.9)
2-tight end sets are likely going to be a fixture on the Colts offense thanks to the addition of Eric Ebron in free agency, but Doyle's strong red zone presence (9 TD's in his 2 seasons as a starter) and benefit of being the only receiver not named T.Y. Hilton that has an established chemistry with Andrew Luck make him the TE to target in Indy.
Honorable Mentions: George Kittle (49ers), Charles Clay (Bills), Cameron Brate (Buccaneers)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Mike Gesicki (Dolphins)
Defense/Special Teams: Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 118.8 Yahoo!: ESPN: 122.3 NFL.com: 91.6)
Terrell Suggs might be the only reminder of the Ravens dominant defenses of yesteryear, but 2018's group could sneak up on a lot of people. They have a group that can get after the QB, force turnovers and doesn't allow a lot of points to teams that don't play in Pittsburgh. A top 5 overall finish wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.
Honorable Mentions: Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans
Quarterback: Matt Ryan (Falcons) (ADP: Yahoo!: 107.3 ESPN: 108.8 NFL.com: 131.6)
How Ryan ended up going in the same range as inconsistent young QB's like Derek Carr, Marcus Mariota and Dak Prescott is beyond me. The Falcons franchise signalcaller is a perennial threat to clear 4,000 passing yards and has enough talent around him at the skill positions to conceivably improve upon his middling TD total (20) from a year ago.
Honorable Mentions: Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Andrew Luck (Colts), Alex Smith (Redskins)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Sam Darnold (Jets)
Running Back: Latavius Murray (Vikings) (ADP: Yahoo!: 123.4 ESPN: 133.5 NFL.com: 146.8)
Overdrafting RB's due to the very shaky depth at the position is a harsh reality fantasy owners are going to have to deal with this season. That being said, Murray's very low price tag proves that you can still find high-upside players in the latter stages of the draft. Even if Dalvin Cook seamlessly bounces back from the torn ACL that shortened his rookie season, Murray's wealth of experience as a starter (42 in 4 healthy seasons as a pro) and proficiency around the goalline (26 TD's in the past 3 seasons) should make him an important cog in the Vikings offensive attack.
Honorable Mentions: Chris Carson (Seahawks), Corey Clement (Eagles), Duke Johnson Jr. (Browns)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Kerryon Johnson (Lions)
Wide Receiver: Marquise Goodwin (49ers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 104.6 ESPN: 76.9 NFL.com: 121.2)
Goodwin was the top beneficiary of Jimmy Garoppolo's arrival in San Francisco last November (384 YDS and 1 TD in the final 5 games of the year) and even with sneakily productive possession receiver Pierre Garcon retuning to the fold, I don't expect that to change this season. His pretty expansive route tree, top-end speed and strong rapport with Garoppolo makes 1,000+ yards, 5-8 TD season very attainable.
Honorable Mentions: Cooper Kuup (Rams), Kelvin Benjamin (Bills), Kenny Golladay (Lions)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Calvin Ridley (Falcons)
Tight End: Jack Doyle (Colts) (ADP: Yahoo!: 126.2 ESPN: 106.9 NFL.com: 99.9)
2-tight end sets are likely going to be a fixture on the Colts offense thanks to the addition of Eric Ebron in free agency, but Doyle's strong red zone presence (9 TD's in his 2 seasons as a starter) and benefit of being the only receiver not named T.Y. Hilton that has an established chemistry with Andrew Luck make him the TE to target in Indy.
Honorable Mentions: George Kittle (49ers), Charles Clay (Bills), Cameron Brate (Buccaneers)
Potential Rookie Sleeper: Mike Gesicki (Dolphins)
Defense/Special Teams: Baltimore Ravens (ADP: 118.8 Yahoo!: ESPN: 122.3 NFL.com: 91.6)
Terrell Suggs might be the only reminder of the Ravens dominant defenses of yesteryear, but 2018's group could sneak up on a lot of people. They have a group that can get after the QB, force turnovers and doesn't allow a lot of points to teams that don't play in Pittsburgh. A top 5 overall finish wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.
Honorable Mentions: Chicago Bears, Carolina Panthers, Tennessee Titans
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