Buffalo Bills
2019 Record: 10-6 (2nd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Sean McDermott (4th season)
Notable Additions: WR Stefon Diggs, CB Josh Norman, T Daryl Williams
Notable Departures: DE Shaq Lawson, CB Kevin Johnson, OLB Lorenzo Alexander (retired)
Notable Opt-Outs: DT Star Lotulelei, CB E.J. Gaines
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Defense
Last season, the Bills morphed into a full blown stalwart defense ranking 2nd in points allowed (16.2 ppg), 4th against the pass and 10th against the rush. With nearly every key piece returning and a place in a division where there's serious question marks surrounding every other offense, there's a real possibility that they get even better in 2020. Tre'Davious White has shown legit lockdown potential at corner in just 3 seasons in the league, their aggressive safety tandem (Micah Hyde, Jordan Poyer) is easily among the most talented in the league, defensive tackle/end Ed Oliver has a great chance to build off his promising rookie year with the departure of Jordan Phillips in free agency and opt-out of Star Lotulelei and rookie A.J. Epenesa is a strong, technically-sound edge presence that could give vet Jerry Hughes the hard-nosed running mate he's been looking for over the last few seasons. Throw in a couple of young, athletic inside linebackers (Matt Milano, Tremaine Edmunds) and a veteran corner who has previously thrived in Sean McDermont's system (Josh Norman) and you have a group with a combination of tenacity, depth and explosiveness that could evolve into the best defense in football.
Biggest Question Mark: Can Stefon Diggs remain content in a Josh Allen-led offense?
Stefon Diggs shot his way out of Minnesota because he wasn't happy with Kirk Cousins' play. While Cousins' tendency to crumble when adversity strikes and disappear on the biggest stages makes him a frustrating player at times, he's still a steady veteran presence who can be trusted to get the ball into the hands of his top receivers in most situations. If Diggs had an issue with the way Cousins played, wait until he gets a load of Josh Allen.
Cousins is an accurate passer (he hasn't completed less than 64.3% of his passes in a season since he became a full time starter in 2015 and averaged just a hair under 70% during the 2 years he played with Diggs in Minnesota) all over the field who doesn't turn the ball over an exorbitant amount (he's never thrown more than 13 INT's in a season and last year he only threw 6 in 15 games). On the other hand, Allen is a full blown gunslinger that is more likely to produce a WTF-inducing incompletion/turnover/decision than a highlight-reel worthy home run play. He also might have the worst touch (especially on deep balls) of any starting quarterback in the league right now (he's ranked dead last in completion percentage among qualifying quarterbacks in each of his first two seasons). It's entirely possible that being the uncontested top receiver will be enough for him to gloss over Allen's erratic play, but it's just as likely that he'll come to a realization of just how he good he had with the steady yet unflashy Cousins after watching Allen sky a ball over his head a couple dozen times.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Josh Allen growing into a real quarterback
Allen received widespread praise for his growth during his sophomore campaign last season. While I'll agree that he improved from his rookie season, the pats on the back he got were pretty damn excessive. Despite taking a big step forward with his short-to-intermediate accuracy, he still completed just 58.8% of his passes, nearly all of his respectable passing performances came against middling-to-bad defenses that didn't put pressure on him (Dolphins, Washington, Titans) and his spectacular implosion in the 4th quarter of the Wild Card game against the Texans was a horrifying case study in how detrimental his frantic decisionmaking can be to this team.
To Brandon Beane's credit, he understands that Allen's development is imperative to the team achieving their title aspirations and has heavily invested in building a strong supporting cast to boost his odds of succeeding. Diggs' combination of a deep route tree with lethal YAC ability gives them another all-around playmaking receiver to put alongside John Brown and Cole Beasley, their running back group (Devin Singletary, rookie Zack Moss, T.J. Yeldon) has the versatility and depth to take pressure off him when needed and they just gave left tackle Dion Dawkins-who has been a solid, reliable blindside protector that has brought some much needed stability to an offensive line that has had its share of injury/consistency issues since Allen has been the starter- an extension that will keep him in Buffalo through the 2024 season. Now it's up to offensive coordinator Brian Daboll and Allen himself to iron out his decisionmaking and accuracy issues, so he can grow past being the athletic, rocket-armed "looks the part" wild card he's been at the start of his NFL career and morph into the reliable, refined franchise quarterback the the Bills have lacked since Jim Kelly retired.
Bottom Line:
The Bills are the clear frontrunner in the AFC East and as long as they play up to their potential and the Patriots don't regress less any expected, they should be able to take home their first division title since 1995.
Miami Dolphins:
2019 Record: 5-11 (4th in AFC East)
Head Coach: Brian Flores (2nd season)
Notable Additions: CB Byron Jones, OLB Kyle Van Noy, DE Shaq Lawson
Notable Departures: S Reshad Jones, DE Charles Harris, DT John Jenkins
Notable Opt-Outs: WR Albert Wilson, WR Allen Hurns
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Investing in Notable Free Agents
At this time last season, the Dolphins started what appeared to be the most shameless tank job in NFL history. Just about any asset that had value (Laremy Tunsil, Minkah Fitzpatrick, Kenyan Drake, Kenny Stills) on their roster was dealt away before the trade deadline in October, pushing several young players/journeymen into the starting lineup and making the #1 pick seem like a lock. Remarkably, this plan backfired as the Dolphins won 5 of their last 9 games after a pitiful 0-7 start including a Week 17 road victory over the Patriots that proved to be a key factor in the Chiefs path to a Super Bowl victory. Even without the #1 pick in their possession, things still turned out pretty well for the 'Phins this offseason as that surprise overachievement and the abundance of free cap space that stemmed from their tank attempt made them an attractive free agent destination that helped them land several prosepctive starters on both sides of the ball.
Kyle Van Noy, who played for Flores in New England, is an explosive swiss army knife that can be deployed as an edge rusher or coverage linebacker, Shaq Lawson is a well-rounded edge defender who is coming off back-to-back solid seasons with the Bills after a nondescript start to his career, Ereck Flowers appears to have finally found his place in the league at guard after a wretched start to his career at tackle, Ted Karras is a steady, smart interior lineman that logged 20 starts during his 4 years with the Patriots and Byron Jones-a strong cover man/pass breakup machine who has experience at every spot in the secondary-is the perfect running mate for 2018 All-Pro Xavien Howard at corner. Bringing in veteran players at key positions to pair with their influx of young players (Christian Wilkins, Mike Gesicki, Raekwon McMillan, Jerome Baker, rookies Austin Jackson, Noah Igbinoghene, Robert and Raekwon Davis) could kick this rebuilding effort into the next gear if these guys can successfully adjust to this system.
Biggest Question Mark: Is DeVante Parker a legit #1 Wideout?
After a pretty underwhelming start to his NFL career, Parker put together an impressive 2019. The 14th overall pick in the 2015 draft took advantage of the 1st healthy season of his career by logging a 72 REC/1,202YD/9 TD campaign that most notably included registering over 50 yards in all but 3 games and a week 17 torching (8 REC/137 YDS) of eventual defensive player of the year Stephon Gilmore that grabbed the attention of the entire league. His consistent strong play even earned him a nice little in-season contract extension (4 years/$40 mil) last December. Between this new contract and the choice to not add anymore WR's in the draft or free agency, the front office is showing that they have a lot of faith that Parker is capable of being the top receiver in South Beach for the foreseeable future.
As good as he was last year, it's easy to question if that productivity was the product of a fluke. Aside from the durability issues I alluded to earlier, he didn't exactly light it up in the past when he was healthy. His previous high yardage total was 744 back in 2016 and he only had 9 career TD's prior to last season, which is bizarre considering that his jump ball skills/redzone prowess was a big part of why he went so high in the draft.
Another understated concern is that new offensive coordinator Chan Gailey's system won't put in him as any positions to succeed as Chad O' Shea's did last year and that he won't have the same chemistry with future starter Tua Tagovailola that he does with current stopgap option Ryan Fitzpatrick. With vets Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns opting-out of the season and projected number 2 wideout Preston Williams coming off a torn ACL, they better hope Parker is just a late bloomer instead of a one year wonder.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Establishing Some Semblance of a Running Game
Running Back wasn't exactly a position of strength for the Dolphins last year. Kenyan Drake got traded, Mark Walton, who averaged a decent 3.8 YDS per carry, was released 3 games after he took over for Drake following a domestic violence arrest and the pair of backs who finished the season with the team failed to eclipse (Patrick Laird, Kallen Ballage) the 200-YD mark. With their ground game ineptitude, they unsurprisingly ended up with the worst rushing offense in football registering a whopping 1,156 YDS on the ground for THE ENTIRE SEASON. Even crazier, Ryan Fitzpatrick finished as their leading rusher with 243 YDS and he only ran it 54 times in 15 appearances (13 starts). Safe to say, if they can go 5-4 without even a hint of a running game, imagine what a half decent rushing attack could do for this offense.
The men tasked with accomplishing the modest goal of a semi-functional running game will be Jordan Howard and Matt Brieda. Howard is a patient, powerful runner between the tackles that is just 2 years removed from a successful workhorse role with the Bears while Brieda is an explosive, dual-threat back who has averaged over 5 yards per carry in back-to-back seasons with the 49ers and has much less tread on his tires than most 25-year old backs with multiple seasons of starting experience (448 touches in 3 season). If they can stay healthy and get some solid blocking from this overhauled o-line led by Karras, Flowers and their two early draft picks (Jackson, Hunt), this is an experienced tandem that should complement each other nicely and take them to the promised land of the 13th-18th ranked rushing offense in the league.
Bottom Line:
Intriguing new additions paired with the sense of optimism about Flores' head coaching ability gives the Dolphins some overachievement potential, but they're still too young and unproven to take seriously in 2020.
New England Patriots
2019 Record: 12-4 (1st in AFC East)
Head Coach: Bill Belichick (21st season)
Notable Additions: QB Cam Newton, RB Lamar Miller, QB Brian Hoyer
Notable Departures: QB Tom Brady, OLB Kyle Van Noy, OLB Jamie Collins
Notable Opt-Outs: ILB Dont'a Hightower, S Patrick Chung, T Marcus Cannon
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Secondary
From the inevitable yet still surreal exit of Tom Brady to the bulk of their linebacking corps (Kyle Van Noy, Jamie Collins, Elandon Roberts) departing for teams led by Belichick disciples the 'Rona-fueled opt-outs of multiple starters including Don'ta Hightower and Marcus Cannon, an uncharacteristic wave of grim news has repeatedly hit the typically infallible Patriots this offseason. Even with all of this negativity floating around, this is still a team that went 12-4 a year ago and the secondary that served as the catalyst for the #1 scoring defense that anchored that campaign is still looking lethal.
While longtime cornerstones Patrick Chung (opt-out) and Duron Harmon (traded to Lions) won't be out there, they still have 4 corners that with high level coverage skills (Stephon Gilmore, Jason McCourty, Jonathan Jones, J.C. Jackson), a smart center fielder in Devin McCourty who continues to produce even as his speed starts to decline at the age of 33, and rookie safety Kyle Dugger is an intriguing raw talent with unreal athleticism who should benefit from playing in a system that tends to get the most out of its defensive backs and being mentored by a player with the on-field resume and leadership of Devin McCourty. Repeating as the top pass defense in the league seems a little bit unrealistic, but there's enough depth and proven talent in this group to believe that a top 3 finish is a strong possibility.
Biggest Question Mark: Quarterback Situation
Replacing Tom Brady was never going to be an easy task to pull off, but what's been surprising is how directionless Bill Belichick's succession plan appears to be. At the start of the offseason, it looked like it was going to be second year player Jarrett Stidham's job. He was leading off-site workouts with the receivers and the local media here in Massachusetts was pumping him up as a lock to be the next franchise quarterback. Then there were whispers that the herpes of the Patriots quarterback room Brian Hoyer was going to get the job because he knows Josh McDaniels' system so well from his previous 13 1-to-2 year stints with the team. Right when the Hoyer propaganda started to take off in late June, everything got blown to shit when they went out and signed Cam Newton-who has an excitement/prestige factor that the other two options simply don't .
So where are they now as training camp starts to enter the padded practice phase? Great question. In fact, things are arguably messier than ever since multiple media outlets are now reporting they're considering rolling out some kind of three-way committee to start the year. I get it, they all have serious red flags: Stidham is a gunslinging kid whose only regular season appearance included a hideous pick 6 to Jamal Adams, Hoyer is a passive, noodle-armed jabroni who sucks the life out of every offense he lines up with and Newton has been an injury-plagued shell of his former MVP self over the past few seasons that has the added bonus of trying to comeback from the major shoulder surgery he had roughly 11 months ago. However, to suggest that a three-way committee at quarterback is a viable solution to this conundrum is laughable. Even if the battle at the position never fully clarifies in camp, Belichick will have a definitive starter in Week 1 and it'll likely be Newton because of his insane upside or Hoyer because of all of the clipboard reps he's put in over the years. Is a short leash for the initial starter possible? Absolutely, but a drive-by-drive revolving door like those reports suggested earlier this week is a silly fantasy training camp narrative that needs to be killed right away.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: People Not Named Julian Edelman or James White Stepping Up in the Passing Game
A combination of ineffective play at the receiver/tight end position and Tom Brady's steadfast refusal to throw to young players gave the Patriots the worst passing attack they've had in ages last season. Without Brady, the latter will be off the table and that will subsequently remove whatever built-in excuse this group has. 34-year old Julian Edelman and unsung pass-catching running back James White can not be the only reliable options in the passing game, especially with a new quarterback that may want to break from the dip-and-dunk style of passing that Brady favored and the absence of a reliable rushing attack (sophomore back Damien Harris, who had just 4 garbage time carries as a rookie, has been getting most of the starting reps throughout camp due to the injury-related absences of Sony Michel and free agent pickup Lamar Miller-who is coming back from a torn ACL).
The good news for the Patriots is that they have a lot of untapped options at receiver that have a lot of potential to improve this season. N'Keal Harry made a few plays upon returning from the ankle injury that cost him the first 9 games of his rookie season that flashed the contested catch ability/body control that made him a 1st round pick, Jakobi Myers showed off solid route-running as a rookie, free agent addition Damiere Byrd is coming off a career best season with the Cardinals (32 REC/359 YDS/1 TD) after receiving semi-regular snaps (455, which accounted for 45% of the offensive plays) at WR for the first time as a pro and both tight ends they drafted (Devin Asiasi, Dalton Keene) flashed as pass-catchers in college. If even just a couple of these young guys can click and veteran option Mohamed Sanu can return to form after an injury-hampered 2019, the Patriots overhauled offense should be in pretty good shape.
Bottom Line:
Despite their crushing losses on both sides of the ball and messy quarterback situation, the Patriots still have enough talent to be a good, competitive football team .
New York Jets
2019 Record: 7-9 (3rd in AFC East)
Head Coach: Adam Gase (2nd season)
Notable Additions: C Connor McGovern, T George Fant, WR Breshad Perriman
Notable Departures: S Jamal Adams, WR Robby Anderson, CB Trumaine Johnson
Notable Opt-Outs: ILB C.J. Mosley, WR Josh Doctson
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The AFC East is the Most Open It's Been in 20 Years
The Jets just traded the best player they've drafted since Darrelle Revis, still employ Adam Gase and are owned by the Johnson family, so the fact that the Patriots aren't a lock to win the division is about the only victory they've enjoyed in 2020 thus far.
Biggest Question Mark: Adam Gase's locker room presence
Adam Gase isn't a terrible coach on the field. His scheming/playcalling is fine most of the time and he's consistently been able to string together mediocre-to-decent seasons since he became a head coach in 2016. Where Gase becomes a real liability is in the locker room. He had an extensive history of clashing with players during his 3 years with the Dolphins and that attitude has followed him to the Jets as his antics were the driving force behind Jamal Adams demanding a trade. A smug, confrontational attitude has brought him nothing but trouble since he joined the head coaching ranks and it sure as hell isn't going to yield him positive results on a rebuilding football team that's populated with young players. Guys won't buy into that style of coaching without the resume to justify that behavior and he obviously doesn't have that. If Gase can't conduct himself in a less shitty manner, the Jets are going to remain trapped in no man's land and his ass will be in a prime position to get axed.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Offensive Line Play
This is a crucial season for the Jets offense as Le'Veon Bell looks to prove he was worth his big contract after a lackluster 2019, Sam Darnold hopes to breakthrough after a rocky start to his career and a slew of guys (Jamison Crowder, rookie Denzel Mims, veteran burner Breshad Perriman, tight end Chris Herndon) contend for the top receiving slot in the wake of Robby Anderson signing with the Panthers in free agency. The key to figuring out all of these situations is the offensive line. It's impossible to do anything meaningful personnel evaluations if Darnold has no time to throw, Bell has to fight through contact just to make it back to the line of scrimmage and the receivers can't make plays because the quarterback is getting acquainted with the turf every other time he drops back to pass.
Watching how the offensive line completely hindered this offense's ability to get off the ground last season, GM Joe Douglas decided to basically nuke the entire incumbent group (guard Alex Lewis is the only returning starter) and make o-line their top offseason priority in 2020. They gobbled up several veterans (center Connor McGovern, tackle George Fant, guard Greg Van Roten) at the start of their free agency and used their first round pick on Louisville product Mekhi Becton. Their aggression in trying to solve this crippling problem is admirable, but I'm not overly confident that this is the group that will be able to end their o-line woes. Fant was a constant negative presence on the Seahawks terrible offensive lines of the last several years, Van Roten and McGovern were basically invisible ahead of their solid 2019 campaigns and despite his heavily-touted imposing size/athleticism combo, Becton remains an incredibly raw prospect that could struggle with polished NFL defensive lineman. Douglas comes from the Howie Roseman tree of executives, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt for now that these risky pickups will at least allow the Jets the opportunity to see if they have anything with their offense as assembled, but I wouldn't be surprised at all if this group failed to improve things at all and had to be retooled once again a couple years from now
Bottom Line:
Dumping Adams before Gase basically just confirms the Jets are going all in on being the Jets in 2020. Anything more than 6 wins would be a triumph worthy of its own underdog book and/or movie deal.
Projected Standings:
1.Buffalo Bills (11-5)
2.New England Patriots (9-7)
3.Miami Dolphins (6-10)
4.New York Jets (4-12)
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