Last week I focused on the late round guys that could help bring you fantasy glory, now it's to time to bring attention to the ones that could make it harder for you to put together a winning team. Here are my picks for the most overvalued players at each position.
Quarterback: Josh Allen (Bills) (Yahoo!: 70.3, ESPN: 103.0, NFL.com: 87.5)
Let's face it, all of Allen's fantasy value comes from his rushing. He's put up 1,141 YDS and 17 TD's on the ground over his 1st 2 NFL seasons, which has been enough to prop up his below average passing stats (5,163 YDS/30 TD/21 INT). With the addition of a big, punishing running back in Zack Moss and a true top wideout in Stefon Diggs that could make a passing more of a priority, his redzone carries could be headed for a decline-which would likely force off the mid-tier QB1 map he's currently on. If you want a streaky passer with some rushing ability, Daniel Jones comes at a much cheaper price (11th-13th round) with a ceiling that isn't too much lower than Allen's.
Honorable Mentions: Drew Brees (Saints), Ben Roethlisberger (Steelers), Joe Burrow (Bengals)
Running Back: Melvin Gordon (Broncos) (Yahoo!: 33.8, ESPN: 53.7, NFL.com: 36.0 )
With the likes of Gordon, Chris Carson and Jonathan Taylor occupying that space on the board, the entire top of the 3rd round RB picture is full of horrifying dice roll propositions. Since Carson is an effective back when he's healthy and Taylor's uncertainty is entirely tied to his projected backup role to start the season, Gordon is left alone as the king of questionable RB2's. Between his uninspired play last season (908 scrimmage YDS, 9 total TD's, 3 lost fumbles) with the Chargers, reported difficulties in picking up the Broncos playbook and the presence of a back-to-back 1,000+ yard rusher Phillip Lindsay right behind him on the depth chart, Gordon has a perfect storm of red flags that make him a potentially horrible value at a crucial juncture of the draft.
Honorable Mentions: Chris Carson (Seahawks), Jonathan Taylor (Colts), Todd Gurley (Falcons)
Wide Receiver: Tyreek Hill (Chiefs) (ADP: Yahoo!: 12.0, ESPN: 17.3, NFL.com: 14.5)
I'm well aware that this seems insane considering that Hill is a proven explosive playmaker that's part of the most dangerous offense in football, but hear me out. Hill currently has the highest ADP of any receiver save for Michael Thomas and Davante Adams, which is just bonkers. His history of soft tissue injuries and role on a deep Chiefs offense that somehow just added another high upside weapon in heavily hyped rookie running back Clyde Edwards-Helaire limits his odds of hitting the 1,300+ YD campaign you're expecting from the 3rd overall receiver off the board. Everyone from the overall WR4 Julio Jones to overall WR10 Adam Thielen doesn't appear to have the threat of a workload concern or a comparable injury history (with the exception of Allen Robinson on the latter), which makes Hill a notable reach at his late 1st/early 2nd round price.
Honorable Mentions: Amari Cooper (Cowboys), JuJu Smith-Schuster (Steelers), DK Metcalf (Seahawks)
Tight End: Rob Gronkowski (Buccaneers) (ADP: Yahoo!: 77.2, ESPN: 74.3 NFL.com: 74.4)
This is a case of a name driving up the draft stock. Gronkowski coming out of retirement to reunite with Tom Brady in Tampa may be a nice story, but I'm not confident if a lot of people remember how hobbled the 31 year old future Hall of Famer was in 2018. He was in visible pain on a weekly basis and basically had to sit out every few weeks if he wanted a shot to be even reasonably effective for key games down the stretch/playoffs. Considering his well-documented physical breakdown stemmed from chronic back and hip injuries, a year away from getting hit likely won't be enough to magically restore him to his old dominant form.
Honorable Mentions: Jared Cook (Saints), Evan Engram (Giants), Hayden Hurst (Falcons)
Defense/Special Teams: Bears (Yahoo!: 103.1, ESPN: 136.5, NFL.com: 115.8)
Using real world measurements, the 2019 Bears had a good defense. They finished in the top 10 in the leagues in scoring defense, rushing/passing YDS allowed and lowest 3rd down conversion percentage. Where they came up short was on the metrics that drive fantasy defense (sacks, takeaways, TD's), finishing in the bottom 10 in all of these categories. While there's a pretty good chance that their money stats improve this season, their continued secondary pass rushing concerns behind Khalil Mack/Akiem Hicks and uncertainty at corner alongside Kyle Fuller gives them a considerably lower floor than the other groups behind drafted around the same spot as them (Patriots, Saints, Bills).
Honorable Mentions: Vikings, Rams, Chiefs
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