Houston Texans
2019 Record: 10-6 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: Bill O'Brien (7th season)
Notable Additions: WR Brandin Cooks, RB David Johnson, WR Randall Cobb
Notable Departures: WR DeAndre Hopkins, DT D.J. Reader, CB Jonathan Joseph
Notable Opt-Outs: None
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Bill O'Brien Didn't Trade Deshaun Watson (Yet)
After trading DeAndre Hopkins to the Cardinals for a package that included agreeing to pay $12.3 mil in guaranteed money for David Johnson to get dinged up every 2-3 weeks and a 2nd round pick, it became clear that O'Brien was willing to deal anybody-regardless of value to the team or the return. While Watson expressed frustration and publicly questioned if the team was serious about winning following the move, he was able to make it through the offseason without being dealt and will be starting for the Texans in 2020. Rumblings of a contract extension have even started to occur in recent weeks, but O'Brien might get word in October that Sterling Shepard is available and send him on his way before those conversations advance to the serious stage.
Biggest Question Mark: The Ability for Their Receiving Corps To Remain Healthy
Forget finding a capable replacement for Hopkins, the Texans have to be worried about being able to field enough guys to run 3-receiver sets this season. Their current receiver group has largely spent more time on the injury report than in the endzone over the course of their careers, which is very unsettling as they try to figure out their WR pecking order following the loss of Hopkins. Will Fuller is the leader in the hampered clubhouse with 22 games missed in 4 seasons, Kenny Stills seem to always being playing through a hamstring problem, Randall Cobb hasn't played in 16 games since 2015, Keke Coutee has already racked up a host of injuries (hamstring, ankle, groin) that have kept him out of 15 games in 2 years and while projected #1 wideout Brandin Cooks hasn't missed much time (8 games in 6 seasons-6 of which were as a rookie in 2014), he does have a history of concussions that needs to be closely monitored. The Texans do have the luxury of having multiple pass-catching running backs (Duke Johnson Jr., David Johnson) and a tight end in Darren Fells that delivered as a red zone option (7 TD's) last season on their roster to alleviate some of the workload concerns that could put them at a greater risk of getting hurt, but having your projected top 4 receivers all have heightened injury risks is a very stressful situation that will require a healthy dose of good fortunate to manage.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Deshaun Watson Getting Even Better
Watson has been tremendous so far in his NFL career so far: completing over 67% passes in back-to-back seasons, putting together a 71/29 TD-INT split and going 24-13 as a starter. The most impressive part of all of this is that he's done while playing behind an offensive line that has ranged from horrible (2017/18) to below average (2019), having to recover from a torn ACL ahead of his sophomore campaign in 2018 and getting saddled with a class-A doofus in O'Brien as a coach/playcaller.
As Watson enters his 4th year in the league, he'll face his toughest challenge to date as he battles in a division that figures to very competitive outside of the rebuilding Jaguars without Hopkins by his side for. The reality is that Watson has a great chance of improving despite the regression in quality of the pieces around the him. He's the rare type of talent that can will wins out of thin air and his fearlessness/playmaking ability should continue to grow no matter who's catching passes for or tasked with protecting him. If Watson takes another step forward at age 25, the Texans will be in the playoff mix once again-regardless of how the rest of the team plays.
Bottom Line:
With no other notable strong points as a team, the Texans will get as far as Deshaun Watson can take them.
Indianapolis Colts
2019 Record: 7-9 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Frank Reich (3rd season)
Notable Additions: DT/DE DeForest Buckner, QB Phillip Rivers, CB Xavier Rhodes
Notable Departures: K Adam Vinatieri, CB Pierre Desir, TE Eric Ebron
Notable Opt-Outs: CB/S Marvell Tell
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Adding DeForest Buckner
The Colts have been accruing a massive amount of cap space over the past few seasons as Chris Ballard plotted to rebuild their roster following the mess that Ryan Grigson left behind. After drafting/signing several young players that have already made an impact on the DNA of this team (Quenton Nelson, Darius Leonard, Braden Smith, Kenny Moore) and putting together a couple of respectable campaigns in a row, Ballard went out and made a big move by trading a 1st round pick to the 49ers for DeForest Buckner (and subsequently inked him to a 4 year/$84 mil extension). Buckner has lived up to his high draft status in his first four seasons in the pros by becoming a disruptive force upfront that blows up plays in the running game and ranks among the most productive interior pass rushers in the league (28.5 career sacks-including 19.5 in the past 2 seasons). At just 26, there's every reason to believe that he's only going to get better, especially when you plug him alongside a steadily productive edge guy like Justin Houston-who quietly racked up 11 sacks last season-on a defense that has been consistently solid since Matt Eberflus took over in 2017.
Biggest Question Mark: Which Phillip Rivers will show up?
Bringing in Rivers as a stopgap option at quarterback was a terrific move by Ballard. The nearly 39-year old thrived with Frank Reich while he was with the Chargers and he'll add some short-term explosiveness to an offense with an appealing set of weapons (T.Y. Hilton, Zach Pascal, Parris Campbell, Jack Doyle, Marlon Mack, rookies Jonathan Taylor and Michael Pittman Jr.) before they select their next franchise quarterback in the next year or two (sorry Jacoby Brissett)
The real important question is what version of Rivers will the Colts be getting? Will it be the impatient gunslinger that we saw last season or the ballsy big play magnet that led the Chargers to the playoffs in 2018? Given the backyard style Rivers that plays and the fact that his age hasn't hampered him thus far, luck will likely be the determining factor.
Despite the influence from the good ol' gridiron dice roll, you have to believe that a notoriously fiery competitor like Rivers will be motivated to succeed this season. The Chargers gave up on him after 16 years of service and he'll want to prove to the Dean Spanos/Tom Teleseco braintrust that not allowing him to finish his career with the organization was a mistake that will come back to haunt them as long as he's still playing. With the aforementioned collection of RB/WR/TE surrounding him, a smart offensive mind calling the shots and the luxury of having an offensive line that stands a good chance of keeping him upright that he hasn't been afforded in quite some time, he'll be in a good position to accomplish that vengeance-fueled goal.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Secondary Defensive Players Returning to Form or Improving
With a rising star in Buckner, a steady veteran pass rusher in Houston, rock solid slot corner in Moore and a young linebacker in Leonard that is already among the best all-around players at the position in the lineup, there's a clear defensive anchor in place that's really easy to get excited about. What's going to dictate their trajectory in 2020 even more than the continued strong efforts of these core players and the coaching of Eberflus is the play of their supporting cast.
Looking at their complementary players as constructed, there's good reason to believe that they can end up being a factor. Between their collection of promising young players looking to build off their solid rookie campaigns (Bobby Okreke, Khari Willis, Rock Ya-Sin), vets seeking redemption (T.J. Carrie, Xavier Rhodes-who has been a massive liability in back-to-back seasons following his All-Pro campaign in 2017) or upside guys seeking out bigger roles after making some plays in subpackages (Ben Banogu, Sheldon Day), they're in the unique position of potentially having answers to their most pressing needs (pass defense, secondary pass rushing) as a unit already on their roster. If a good chunk of these guys can make a notable impact-particularly Okreke who was great against the run last season and Rhodes who was a physical, borderline lockdown corner at his best would make this group really tough to deal with.
Bottom Line:
If Rivers and the defense can live up to their potential, the Colts will be in a great spot to win the division and potentially play spoiler in the AFC.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2019 Record: 6-10 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Marrone (4th season)
Notable Additions: ILB Joe Schobert, TE Tyler Eifert, DT Timmy Jernigan
Notable Departures: DE Calias Campbell, OLB Yannick Ngakoue* (currently holding out and is expected to be traded soon), CB A.J Bouye
Notable Opt-Outs: CB Rashaan Melvin, DT Al Woods
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Several Promising Young Players
Between the realization that their stint as a contender was just a one-off and trading perceived franchise cornerstone Jalen Ramsey during the season, 2019 wasn't a fun one for the Jaguars. The bulk of the positives that were present came from seeing some of their young guys take advantage of the turmoil and put forth solid performances. D.J. Chark established himself as a solid vertical threat in his first year as a starter (73 REC/1,008 YDS/8 TD's), Taven Bryan routinely outshined vet Marcell Dareus at defensive tackle, Josh Allen kept busy on the edge with an impressive 10.5 sacks as a rookie and of course, Gardner Minshew became a folk hero after being thrust into the starting lineup following Nick Foles' shoulder injury in Week 1 and went onto appear in 14 games (12 starts). This group is going to be get more of a chance with the likes of Foles, Dareus, Calias Campbell and Yannick Ngakoue no longer in the fold and with a few more high upside rookies (C.J. Henderson, Laviska Shenault, K'Lavon Chaisson) joining their ranks this season, it's going to be really interesting to see if the Jaguars end up actually getting a young corps they can build around out of this latest retooling.
Biggest Question Mark: Are The Veterans Willing to Buy Into a Rebuild?
How the Jaguars responded to their breakout success in 2017 is arguably what sunk them. Guys like Ramsey, Nkgaoue and A.J. Bouye all mentally folded when adversity struck early in 2018 and they never got that fire back. With all of those guys and even a relentless competitor/leader like Campbell now gone, the Jaguars are clearly looking towards the next generation of talent to try and build a sustainable, long-term contender. While there isn't many tenured vets left on the roster, it's a fair question to ask if those handful of guys have the mental fortitude to be part of a rebuild.
In the case of top free agent pickup Joe Schobert, it's easy to infer that he's on board because he chose to come to Jacksonville and is used to being a part of a team that is trying to figure it out from his years with the Browns. The rest of the guys in question aren't as simple. Brandon Linder is an elite center on an otherwise shaky offensive line that could very well be sick of losing after spending his entire 8 year career with the Jags, Myles Jack is the last remaining key piece from that 2017 run that could be upset that the team decided to cut ties with everybody else and D.J. Hayden is a guy coming off back-to-back solid seasons in a contract year that could welcome a deal to a contender at the trade deadline. Throw in the likelihood that Doug Marrone is on a short leash after back-to-back underwhelming seasons and you have serious potential for veteran dissent to emerge.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Gardner Minshew building on what he did in 2019
Minshew became a classic underdog story as he managed to bring some excitement to a Jaguars team that was kind of lost when he went from afterthought injury replacement for their big ticket free agent signing Foles to re-winning the starting job after Big Dick Nick struggled upon his return to the field. There's even an argument to be made that he (3,271 Passing YDS, 21 TD, 6 INT, 60.6 CMP%, 344 Rushing YDS) played better than Offensive Rookie of the Year Kyler Murray (3,722 passing YDS, 20 TD, 12 INT, 64.4 CMP% 544 Rushing YDS, 4 TD) last season.
Cult status aside, Minshew has a skill set that could be developed. He's got solid mobility, pretty sound decisionmaking and a mental/physical toughness that's great to see out of a young QB (3 of his 6 wins were 4th quarter comebacks). On the other side of the coin, his accuracy needs serious improvement and the amount he put the ball on the ground was troubling (13 FUM/7 Lost) even for a rookie.
Working with a new offensive coordinator in Jay Gurden-who did damn good work with the Bengals at the start of Andy Dalton's career and the confidence Marrone/GM Dave Caldwell showed in him by trading Foles and naming him the starter without hesitation should boost his odds of taking a step forward in his sophomore season. While it's fair to question what they'll do if he regresses or fails to make any tangible improvement, Minshew is going to get a fair, justified crack at becoming the long-term starter in Jacksonville-which is something that he probably never even dreamed was possible at this point last year when he was a 6th round pick fighting for a roster spot.
Bottom Line:
The Jaguars are a rebuilding team with a coach on the hotseat and considerably less talent than the rest of the teams in their division, making them a longshot to succeed in 2020.
Tennessee Titans
2019 Record: 9-7 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Mike Vrabel (3rd season)
Notable Additions: CB Jonathan Joseph, OLB Vic Beasley, T Ty Sambrailo
Notable Departures: T Jack Conklin, DT Jurrell Casey, CB Logan Ryan
Notable Opt-Outs: None
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Getting a full season of A.J. Brown starting
In a strong receiver class that included Terry McLaurin, DK Metcalf and Deebo Samuel, Brown ended up leading all rookie receivers with 1,051 YDS. What's most impressive he pulled this off while reeling in just 52 catches (20.2 YPC) and only starting in 11 games for a team that attempted the 2nd least passes in the league (448).
So how can Brown continue to thrive as the #1 wideout in an offense that pounds the rock like its 1978? Well for starters, he has an explosiveness that's just hard to contain. He has the speed/route running finesse to beat DB's over the top on deep routes and the elusiveness/power to be a YAC monster on short passes. This dynamic skill set makes him a threat to make plays every time he touches the ball, even if it's only a handful of times per game. Plus if Derrick Henry continues to put together monster seasons, they'll always be attention being paid to the running game-which will allow him opportunities to run free or only receive single coverage whenever they decide to throw. Brown has the potential to be a rare weapon in this league and seeing what he can do in a full 16 game campaign should be a thrill.
Biggest Question Mark: Can Ryan Tannehill Replicate the Success He Enjoyed in 2019?
It took 5 years longer than expected, but Ryan Tannehill's breakout year finally happened! While it can be debated how big of a role he played in their 10th ranked scoring offense considering that Henry was the focal point of the entire operation, Tannehill's efficiency (70.3 CMP%, 22 TD, 6 INT) and the unit-wide improvement they displayed when he replaced Marcus Mariota at quarterback (7-3 as a starter opposed to Mariota's 2-4) were impressive nonetheless. Following their Cinderella playoff run that saw them KO the Patriots and Ravens before losing to the Chiefs in the AFC Championship, Tannehill received a new deal to stick with the Titans for another 4 years.
Based on last season alone, there's no reason to question re-signing Tannehill at all. He completely changed the complexion of the entire offense and took them to the AFC Championship all while displaying consistently steady, nearly mistake-free play. In the greater context of Tannehill's career and how he was often a secondary offensive option behind the ground game-particularly during said impressive playoff run, it's hard to be overly confident that Tannehill will be able to be that good again.
He was a middling starter who couldn't build off his flashes of his greatness during his tenure with the Dolphins and a lot of the success he had last season was predicated on Henry doing big things in the running game. It's also discouraging that during the AFC Championship Game when a situation arose where they had to throw the ball to try and stay in the game, he couldn't make anything happen until it was too late (his padded 21/31/209 YDS/2 TD statline doesn't accurately represent how flat he was once the Chiefs took the lead in the 2nd quarter). Clearly he's not going to be asked to throw a lot as long as Henry and/or the running game keep rolling, but if he can't succeed in any situation that isn't making play action passes with a lead, then Tannehill and subsequently the Titans offense is going to be in trouble long before that deal runs out.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting More Out of Their Defense
The Titans defense was completely fine in 2019. They finished in 12th in the league multiple categories including scoring defense, rushing defense and total yards allowed while also posting respectable sack (43, tied for 13th) and takeaway totals (23, tied for 10th). However, their lone glaring weakness came with their 24th ranked pass defense and that's what ultimately ruined their chances of making a Super Bowl run last season as Patrick Mahomes sliced them up for 294 YDS and 3 TD's in the AFC Championship Game.
Outside of longtime leader Jurrell Casey getting traded to the Broncos to make way for 2019 1st round pick Jeffrey Simmons and Logan Ryan getting replaced by the ageless wonder Jonathan Joseph in the slot, this will be pretty much be the same group from a year ago for better or worse. Given that safety Kevin Byard is the only certified star in their ranks, they're going to need a host of guys to raise their games if they want to elevate their status as a unit. The respectable vets (Malcolm Butler, Adoree' Jackson, Jayon Brown) are going to have to see if they can flirt with greatness, the young players from Simmons to Harold Landry to Rashaan Evans are going to have to get over their varying degrees of early career struggles to live up to their standing as top 50 picks and Vic Beasley is going to have to get his head out of his ass and see if he can re-discover the burst/intensity that allowed him to get 15.5 sacks in 2016. Between Mike Vrabel's solid defensive pedigree and their top half finish in most key categories indicates that they are trending in the right direction as a unit, there's a good chance that this group wo;; at least a little bit after last season.
Bottom Line:
With a largely unchanged roster and motivated coach in Mike Vrabel running the show, the Titans seems likely to be just as good, if not slightly better than they were in 2019.
Projected Standings:
1.Indianapolis Colts (11-5)
2.Tenneesee Titans (9-7)
3.Houston Texans (7-9)
4.Jacksonville Jaguars (5-11)
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