Baltimore Ravens:
2019 Record: 14-2 (1st in AFC North)
Head Coach: John Harbaugh (13th season)
Notable Additions: DE Calias Campbell, DE Derek Wolfe, G D.J. Fluker
Notable Departures: G Marshal Yanda (retired), S Earl Thomas, TE Hayden Hurst
Notable Opt-Outs: T Andre Smith, WR/KR De'Anthony Thomas
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Offseason Additions on Defense Giving Them the Potential to Match the Dynamism of their Offense
Defense is what ultimately derailed the 2019 Ravens season as the Titans came in and punched them in the mouth with a heavy dose of Derrick Henry in their stunning Divisional Round loss at M&T Bank Stadium. Eric Decosta identified that the front 7 was the root of the problem and made it the focal point of their offseason plan.
Calias Campbell gives them a dominant, versatile defensive line chess piece that a blitz fiend like DC Don Martindale should have a ball scheming for, Derek Wolfe is a nice veteran depth piece that should help sure up the run D, and their rookie inside linebacker tandem (Patrick Queen, Malik Harrison) gives them a much more athletic tandem than the patchwork pairing they rolled out (Josh Bynes, Patrick Onwuasor) last year. If their front 7 takes a step forward and their three headed secondary beast (Marcus Peters, Marlon Humphrey, Chuck Clark) can maintain the strong play they displayed for the bulk of last season, this group has a good chance of matching the dynamism and productivity of their offense.
Biggest Question Mark: Having to Suddenly Replace Earl Thomas
While there's a lot to get excited about when it comes to the Ravens defense, the impact stemming from the unexpected release of Earl Thomas can't be downplayed. Thomas was an active playmaker in the middle of the field in 2019 and was starting to look like his All-Pro self by season's end after a semi-slow start as a result of rehabbing from the broken leg he suffered in September 2018. That being said, the fight with Clark that led to him getting sent home prior to his release on Saturday clearly wasn't his first clash with teammates and the brass' swift action in cutting him indicates that his potential to disrupt the locker room was more important than his on-field contributions.
So who is going to replace him on short notice? 3rd year player DeShon Elliott is believed to be getting the first crack at the job, which is a little alarming considering that he's yet to play any meaningful snaps at safety during his pro career and didn't exactly light it up during his time at the University of Texas. Unfortunately, their other options aren't any more appealing. Rookie Geno Stone might not make the team, Jordan Richards gets abused by receivers every time he steps on the field, Anthony Levine is a special teamer who has played on defense in emergency situations and the guys on the free agent market (Reshad Jones, Eric Reid, Antoine Bethea, Darian Stewart, Kurt Coleman) are all available at this juncture for a reason. Having one liability in the secondary isn't an insurmountable obstacle, but it's still a tough pill to swallow when you would've had a future Hall of Famer out there if he wasn't acting like a prick.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Lamar Jackson Continuing to Improve as a Passer
Showstopping runs are understandably the thing that's going to remembered the most from Jackson's MVP season. His superhuman speed and shiftiness when he ran with the ball made him an endless highlight reel and allowed him to smash Michael Vick's record for most rushing YDS by a quarterback (1,205). However, the X factor behind his success was the tremendous strides he made as a passer. His completion percentage rose nearly 8% (58.2 to 66.1), he threw 6x more TD's (6 to 36) and more importantly, looked much more comfortable and poised in the pocket than he did during his rookie season. As good as he was in the regular season, he put together another dud in the postseason (52.5 CMP%, 1 TD, 2 INT) that raised questions about whether or not he had the passing skills to lead a team from behind.
Based on how Jackson took accountability for his role in the Ravens poor performance and the return of Greg Roman at offensive coordinator, there's seem to good odds that Jackson will take another step forward as a passer this season. Jackson seems like he as a terrific work ethic, there were a ton of throws that he couldn't have made as a rookie that he did last year and Roman has the coaching/playcalling prowess to push him to the next level while still playing to his strengths. If Jackson can continue to improve his downfield accuracy and learn how to consistently throw on the run, he's going to be borderline unstoppable.
Bottom Line:
With a largely returning roster and potentially impactful additions on defense, the Ravens are in a great spot to return to the top of the AFC hierarchy.
Cincinnati Bengals:
2019 Record: 2-14 (4th in AFC North)
Head Coach: Zac Taylor (2nd season)
Notable Additions: DT D.J. Reader, S Vonn Bell, CB Trae Waynes
Notable Departures: QB Andy Dalton, TE Tyler Eifert, G John Miller
Notable Opt-Outs: None
Biggest Reason to Get Excited: Mike Brown Actually Spent Money on Free Agents
The most quietly shocking story of the offseason was that notorious cheapskate Mike Brown actually broke out his checkbook to sign legit free agents. They added a few promising young pieces to their ailing secondary (rangey safety Vonn Bell, respectable slot corner Mackenise Alexander, scrappy outside corner Trae Waynes-who is currently sidelined with a torn pec that will keep him out until at least November), a productive albeit not overly flashy veteran inside linebacker in Josh Bynes and even landed one of the best interior defensive lineman in the league over the past couple of years in D.J. Reader. Of course these moves could backfire, but it was just nice to see him actually hand out contracts to free agents who aren't just scrap heap fodder that nobody else wanted.
Biggest Question Mark: Offensive Line
Poor offensive line play has become the norm of late with the Bengals. This group has been an absolute dumpster fire since the likes of Kevin Zeitler, Andrew Whitworth and Eric Winston left town and none of the seemingly endless combinations of guys they've trotted out there over the past seasons have done anything positive. Since many of the parties responsible for 2019's shitshow will be back in action this season (Bobby Hart, Michael Jordan, Trey Hopkins, Billy Price-who mercifully is slated for a backup role at the moment after grading out as the worst interior lineman in football last season) and they replaced John Miller with another journeyman stiff that didn't live up to their standing as a 2nd round draft pick in Xavier Su'a-Filo, the lone man that could bring about positive change is left tackle Jonah Williams.
Before he went down with a torn labrum before training camp last season, the 2019 1st round pick was widely hailed as being the most well-rounded tackle prospect in his draft class and the type of guy that could instantly stabilize an offensive line. Putting all of your hopes on a 2nd year lineman who has yet to have any NFL game reps to come in and bolster an offensive line that just happens to be tasked with protecting their coveted rookie quarterback Joe Burrow right is alarming, but that's the unfortunate position the Bengals have gotten themselves stuck in.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Zac Taylor's Offensive Mind
Last year's Bengals pretty much ruined any chance Zac Taylor had to prove himself as an offensive guru last season in his debut season. Their talent pool was relatively limited with A.J. Green out for the entire season, the offensive line was an unmitigated disaster and the combination of the relentlessly mediocre Andy Dalton and hapless rookie Ryan Finley at quarterback didn't exactly exhibit a level of play that could be associated with winning football.
Entering 2020, Taylor is entering a much rosier situation. Green is back in action, they drafted another promising wideout in Tee Higgins and Burrow may be end up being one of the brightest QB prospects to enter the league in years. While a built-in excuse remains as he enters a season with an offensive line that is expected to still struggle and a rookie quarterback that had to deal with an unconventional offseason that could be detrimental to his development, Taylor should be able to navigate these problems pretty seamlessly if he's the offensive genius he's believed to be. He has a solid war chest of weapons (in addition to the aforementioned guys, Tyler Boyd is a grossly underrated wideout, Joe Mixon is one of the better running backs in the league and John Ross showed that he can make some splash plays on occasion) to work and could tailor a simplified offense around Burrow's skill set to make the learning curve less imposing. While it won't be the definitive referendum on him as an HC, how Taylor handles 2020 should provide some clarity on whether or not he's an innovative coach like his mentor Sean McVay or just another overhyped clown that got to where he was simply because his former boss was the football flavor of the week.
Bottom Line:
A steady improvement from their 2-14 2019 campaign seems likely, but this team is still far too flawed and unproven to take overly seriously in 2020.
Cleveland Browns
2019 Record: 6-10 (3rd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Kevin Stefanski (1st season)
Notable Additions: T Jack Conklin, TE Austin Hooper, S Karl Joseph
Notable Departures: ILB Joe Schobert, S Damarious Randall, ILB Christian Kirksey
Notable Opt-Outs: DT Andrew Billings
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Freddie Kitchens is Gone
With only a year and a half of playcalling experience as an OC and whispers that Gary Kubiak was more responsible for the Vikings offensive success than him, Kevin Stefanski is far from a guaranteed home run hire. That being said, he has done have one thing going for him: he's not Freddie Kitchens.
Considering that the Browns let Hue Jackson stick around for part of a 3rd season after winning 1 game in the prior 2 seasons, Kitchens seemed like a decent bet to return. But clearly Jimmy Haslam had gained some kind of perspective from the Jackson debacle and wisely terminated him the day after the regular season ended. It took less than a month into the season to realize that Kitchens was way over in his head as head coach. He had zero control over the locker room and his comically inept playcalling proved that he wasn't ready to take on that gig full time despite his respectable showing as the interim OC following the firing of Jackson in 2018.
At the very least, Stefanski has proven that he can run an effective offensive for an entire season and his relationship with a proven offensive mastermind like Kubiak-who was promoted to Vikings OC following his departure-indicates that he at least has somewhat of a chance of ending the Browns extended run of employing subpar-to-awful coaches.
Biggest Question Mark: Baker Mayfield
While Kitchens' poor playcalling absolutely played a factor in Mayfield's sophomore slump, his attitude was the driving force behind his regression. He played like a guy who bought every ounce of the offseason hype surrounding himself and the team, and that misguided expectation that the Browns were a sure bet to succeed resulted him in playing the kind of sloppy, inefficient football (22 TD, 21 INT, 59.4 CMP%, 78.8 QBR-the latter trio all ranked 2nd worst in the league) that you can't have from an aspiring franchise QB.
From a personnel standout, Mayfield is in a golden position to bounce back. He has a new coach with a solid reputation, a loaded group of weapons (Nick Chubb, Odell Beckham Jr, Jarvis Landry, Kareem Hunt, the just-signed Austin Hooper), a talented all-around defense that should likely prevent games from getting out of hand and an offensive line that seems destined to be better after bringing in Jack Conklin and rookie Jedrick Wills to replace the turnstile twins otherwise known as Chris Hubbard and "Ganja" Greg Robinson at the tackle spots. With that out of the way, it's highly unlikely that the classic secondary reasons for QB failure end up being the determining factor for his fate.
He proved as a rookie in 2018 that the raw talent is there, it's just that right now his ego is suppressing those gifts. He thought he had already arrived as the next star quarterback in the league, but got unceremoniously reminded throughout 2019 that a string of good games as a rookie doesn't qualify you for greatness. New wave franchise QB's like Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson didn't just take their initial success for granted, they continued to hone their craft like they've achieved nothing at all in the league and that's not likely to change until they hang it up. His ability to work harder at developing chemistry with his receivers, tune out outside noise and learn from the slew of decisionmaking mistakes he made last season is going to determine whether or not he's the real deal or just the latest bust to play quarterback for the Browns.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting the Most Out of Odell Beckham Jr. and Kareem Hunt
The aforementioned slew of weapons wasn't quite as dangerous as it could've been a year ago because Odell Beckham Jr. (74 REC/1,035 YDS/4 TD) and Kareem Hunt (464 scrimmage YDS/3 TD's in 8 games) didn't play their best ball during their inaugural seasons with the Browns. While some of that can be attributed to having to learn a new offense (or in the case of Hunt-entering the fold mid-way through the year), Mayfield's struggles and Kitchens' scheming/playcalling, it also can't be denied that they weren't giving it 100% effort.
If they want to turn the tide in year 2, Mayfield and Stefanski are going to have to show more faith in them and get them to completely buy into the team. Beckham Jr. can make magic after the catch if you can get him the ball in the open field and Hunt is an elusive, dual-threat back that could be an excellent change-of-pace complement to the punishing downhill running of Nick Chubb. If these two can start to pop like they did with the Giants and Chiefs respectively, the entire AFC North race could get turned on its head.
Bottom Line:
Despite their practically guaranteed coaching upgrade and an arsenal of talent on both sides of the ball, the uncertainty surrounding Baker Mayfield paired with the strength of this division makes the Browns quest to snap their 17-year playoff drought an uphill climb.
Pittsburgh Steelers
2019 Record: 8-8 (2nd in AFC North)
Head Coach: Mike Tomlin (14th season)
Notable Additions: TE Eric Ebron, G Stefen Wisnewski, FB Derek Watt
Notable Departures: G Ramon Foster (retired), DT Javon Hargrave, S Sean Davis
Notable Opt-Outs: None
Biggest Reason for Excitement: A Deep, Horrifying Defense
What the Steelers defense accomplished last season was nothing short of remarkable. They finished as the 5th ranked scoring defense (18.9) and led the league in takeaways (38) and sacks (54) despite playing alongside a sleepy offense that constantly forced them onto the field because they couldn't sustain drives. Their contributions alongside the sturdy coaching of Mike Tomlin almost managed to will a team that had Mason Rudolph and Devlin Hodges under center for 14 of 16 games to the playoffs, which should've never even been a real possibility.
Regardless of how the offensive situation shakes out this season, the Steelers have to be thrilled that they have such a talented defensive group that still has so much room to grow. T.J. Watt emerged as an absolute force on the edge last season (55 TKLS, 14.5 sacks, 8 FF's, 4 FUM REC, 2 INT's), Steven Nelson could very well be the most underrated corner in the league, Cameron Heyward continues to be an all-around disruptor on the defensive line, Devin Bush flashed real potential as a field-spanning playmaker at inside linebacker during his rookie season and rising star safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who earned his 1st career All-Pro and Pro Bowl appearances in 2019, has a real chance of getting even better in his 1st full season in Keith Butler's system. Even their "weaker" starters (Terrell Edmunds, Vince Williams, Joe Haden) are competent players who don't make a lot of egregious mistakes. This combination of young and veteran talent and no real holes to speak if makes them my pick for the most fearsome defense on paper heading into 2020.
Biggest Question Mark: Ben Roethlisberger's Health
When Roethlisberger hurt his elbow at the end of the Steelers Week 2 contest with the Seahawks last September, it felt like the potential end of the line for the veteran QB. Returning from a major injury that could do serious damage to his accuracy/arm strength as a passer at the age of 38 is far from a guarantee, especially for a guy with a questionable work ethic that has been taking largely self-imposed beatings for the past 15 years.
Well, fast forward to the draft in April and the Steelers surprised a lot of people by not drafting a quarterback. Time will tell whether this move was a sign of faith that Roethlisberger's elbow was going to hold up fine or just a courtesy to the 2x Super Bowl Champ for services rendered, but going into the year with Rudolph and Hodges returning as the backups provides an alarmingly small amount of wiggle room if something comes up with his health.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Getting Literally Anything Out of Their Offense
As I mentioned above, the Steelers offense was an abomination last season. Terrible QB play and stacked boxes for the revolving door of bodies (James Connor, Jaylen Samuels, Benny Snell, Trey Edmunds) that lined up at running back made moving the ball a damn near impossibility. Given their solid collection of receivers (JuJu Smith-Schuster, James Washington, Dioante Johnson, free agent pickup Eric Ebron, rookie Chase Claypool), offensive line (David DeCastro, Alejandro Villanueva, Maurkice Pouncey, Matt Feiler, Stefen Wisnewski-who is replacing the retired Ramon Foster) and backs (all of the aforementioned guys are back for 2020), merely competent play at quarterback should be enough to right the ship.
So just how likely is it that Roethlisberger can pull this off? I'd say about 50/50. If early reports are to believed, Roethlisberger has been a mixed big at training camp with some concern being expressed over his touch on deep balls. Even without a reliable deep ball, a semi-healthy Roethlisberger should be a big improvement over what they had last season and that would go a long way in helping this team return to the realm of contenders in the AFC.
Bottom Line:
Massive questions at quarterback are the only thing preventing me from going all in on the Steelers this season.
Projected Standings:
1.Baltimore Ravens (11-5)
2.Pittsburgh Steelers (10-6)
3.Cleveland Browns (8-8)
4.Cincinnati Bengals (5-11)
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