Houston Texans
2023 Record: 10-7 (1st in AFC South)
Head Coach: DeMeco Ryans (2nd season)
Notable Additions: WR Stefon Diggs, EDGE Danielle Hunter, RB Joe Mixon
Notable Departures: EDGE Jonathan Greenard, RB Devin Singletary, DT Maliek Collins
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Arrival of More Veteran Reinforcements
The biggest pleasant surprise in the NFL last season had to be the Texans. Most people thought they were at least a couple years away from competing given where their roster was at this stage of their rebuilding efforts, but in come DeMeco Ryans and C.J. Stroud and all of a sudden, they're winning the AFC South and advancing to the Divisional Round. When a young team exceeds expectations by such a wide margin, the front office usually gets the green light to invest in players that can complement the young corps. That's precisely what the Texans did this offseason.
GM Nick Caserio was hyperaggressive in adding talent to both sides of the ball from the onset of the new league year in March all the way up until early May. Defense was the primary area of focus as there were more clear areas where they needed to improve alongside young centerpieces Derek Stingley Jr. and reigning Defensive Rookie of the Year Will Anderson.
Their biggest get was pass-rushing menace Danielle Hunter. While you could argue that it would've been preferrable for the Texans to retain Jonathan Greenard after his breakout 2023 campaign (12.5 sacks), Hunter remains in his prime at 29 going on 30 and has been one of the most consistently productive players at his position from 2018 on-picking up at least 10.5 sacks in each of his healthy seasons since then.
Ryans was also able to facilitate a reunion with Azeer Al-Shaair to fill the starting linebacker spot vacated by Blake Cashman-who followed Greenard to the Vikings in free agency. Al-Shaair is coming off a career year with the Titans (163 tackles, 2 sacks, 9 TFL's, 6 QB hits, 4 passes defensed) and returning to Ryans' system alongside Christian Harris-who started to really pop late last season-puts him in a great spot to build off what he accomplished last year.
The rest of their moves on that side of the ball were about adding players with significant game experience to provide depth at important positions and/or compete for starting jobs. Denico Autry should provide a nice boost to their interior pass-rush (35.5 sacks from 2020-23) in mid-to-late October once he returns from his 6-game PED suspension. Folorunso Fatukasi and Tim Settle are both adequate run stuffers who aren't afraid to mix it up in the middle of the d-line. The backup corner group (C.J. Henderson, Myles Bryant, Jeff Okudah) behind projected starters Stingley, Desmond King and rookie Kamari Lassiter might not strike fear in the hearts of their opponents if they're forced into action, but they're all guys who've played a ton of reps recently (80 combined career starts since they all came into the league in 2020) and are young enough to improve under the tutelage of Ryans, DC Matt Burke and DB Dino Vasso.
As for the offense, the moves were much scarcer given how well Nico Collins, Tank Dell and Dalton Schultz gelled with Stroud and their o-line played. While there were less moves overall, there was arguably more splashes on this side of the ball. The most eye-catching name joining the Texans offense this year is none other than 4x Pro Bowl, 2x All-Pro WR Stefon Diggs. While Diggs will be 31 in November and is coming off his weakest season since 2019 (107 REC/1,183 YDS/8 TD's), he's still got plenty of gas left in the tank and provides the Texans with yet another wideout who runs great routes, can make plays after the catch and cause problems for DB's deep downfield.
They were also able to land veteran back Joe Mixon in a trade with the Bengals. Mixon's struggles with efficiency (4.1 YPC for his career) and durability are well-documented, but he has a nose for the endzone (62 total TD's in 97 career games) and this Texans line is probably the best he's ever played with, which could up those average YPC numbers.
Rounding out the Texans veteran additions on offense is WR Ben Skowronek. Bringing him up here may prove to be an exercise in futility as he's competing for a roster spot in one of the most crowded receiver rooms in the league (Robert Woods, Noah Brown, John Metchie III and Xavier Hutchison are also in the mix for the 2-3 spots behind their aforementioned starting trio). However, they did burn a 6th round pick to get Skowronek from the Rams in May and he flashed some potential as a slot target in 2022 before Puka Nacua showed up and stole his reps last year, so it wouldn't be all that surprising if he did ultimately make the team-especially with Dell coming off a broken fibula.
This flurry of moves reenforces the obvious: This is the most exciting a Texans team has looked at this point in the season since at least 2019. And if these new vets can excel alongside their promising young talent, that excitement surrounding the Texans isn't going to depart the greater Houston area anytime soon.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Having Stefon Diggs in the Locker Room
Preseason football doesn't provide much besides comical overreactions and programming for the NFL Network when Good Morning Football isn't on. The overreaction headline coming out of Houston this weekend was Diggs engaging in a demonstrative conversation with Stroud on the sidelines. Again, it could be nothing as preseason red flags (or triumphs for that matter) often don't amount to anything at all. That being said, this is not the kind of thing the Texans want to see happening-especially before a snap of real game action has taken place.
The biggest concern about acquiring Diggs was bringing him into the locker room. He's shot his way off of 2 teams now and his behavior in Buffalo in particular was detrimental to the team as he publicly complained about Josh Allen, disappeared from practice/camp without notice on several occasions and regularly engaged in shit like you saw on the sideline with Stroud. These things also undoubtedly factored into the trade's unusual draft pick compensation (Houston gave the Bills a 2024 6th rounder and 2025 5th rounder while the Bills SENT the Texans a 2025 2nd rounder) and restructuring of the 4-year extension he signed with Buffalo in 2022 that was supposed to kick in this year into a 1-year fully guaranteed deal that will make him a free agent after this season. All of this proves that the Texans would only take him if they weren't married to him long term and how desperate the Bills were to get rid of him.
Beyond the whole voiding of his contract extension and old team hurting themselves in the short term just to get rid of him thing, Diggs shouldn't have any trouble finding additional reasons to lash out in Houston. Barring a rash of injuries, his target share isn't going to be what it was in Buffalo. Collins, Dell and Schultz all thrived last season and they have the advantage of already having an established rapport with Stroud. While it would be a shock if Diggs was #4 in the pecking order, he sure as shit isn't going to be an uncontested #1 like he's been over the past 4 years and since he often wasn't happy with that arrangement, how the hell is going to feel about this?
Then, there's of course the relationship between him and Stroud. The reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year turns 23 in October and impressed a lot of people with his leadership and maturity last season. That means jack shit when dealing with Diggs. Has any other player that's played with Josh Allen complained about him? Not that I can recall, and this is somebody who was way more established when Diggs got to Buffalo then Stroud is now.
Stroud might lose his shit dealing with him. Diggs might not respect Stroud because he's so young. They might even just not mesh as people. Safe to say, there's a LOT of ways this dynamic could go wrong, and it already might be off on the wrong foot!
The cherry on top of reasons for Diggs' potential discontent is Collins got himself an extension at the end of May. Collins is 25 and did damn near nothing in the pros prior to his incredible 2023. Somebody with a "lesser" pedigree (for now at least) getting paid instead of him could really burn his ass as that's something that he's never had to deal with before. Keep an eye on the target share and interactions between these two moving forward because how their dynamic develops could ultimately dictate the functionality of this group this season.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: C.J. Stroud Avoiding a Sophomore Slump
Stroud's play as a rookie was the most impressive that I've seen since Andrew Luck back in 2012. His poise was remarkable, he elevated his teammates and most impressively, stepped up during crunch time situations over and over again. As great as he was as a rookie and as great as I believe he'll be moving forward, sophomore seasons can go awfully wrong for QB's.
Plenty of guys are able to beat it and plenty aren't. It's not even really indictive of long-term career trajectory, it's just certain guys have to readjust how they play and process the game moving forward because things didn't go as smoothly for them in year #2 as it did as a rookie. Baker Mayfield, Daniel Jones and fellow OROTY Winner Dak Prescott are just a few of the current NFL Starters that regressed in year #2.
Stroud is very well-positioned to be one of the guys that beats it. In addition to his aforementioned attributes and the considerable war chest of weapons surrounding him, he has the luxury of having OC Bobby Slowik return for another season. Slowik's departure for a head coaching job felt inveitable given his work with Stroud and the Texans offense as a whole- taking them from 30th to 13th in scoring offense in his 1st season as a playcalller, but he elected to return to the Texans in late January after interviewing for the HC openings with the Titans, Falcons and Commanders. This is a huge win for Stroud and this offense as a whole as Slowik is a great playcaller that effectively runs the QB-friendly Shanahan offense, and he isn't burdened with the stress of learning a new offense for the 2nd straight season.
Stroud also carries himself in a way where it appears that he's going to be allergic to complacency. The success and accolades he picked up last season were great and all, but they're ultimately meaningless if he doesn't follow it up with more great play. Plus, the last time Stroud was on a football field, he and his team were getting embarrassed by the Ravens in the Divisional Round. Those kinds of losses are the ones that haunt the great ones all offseason long and inspire them to be better moving forward. I believe Stroud is one of these people and his response this season will go a long way in affirming or adjusting that belief.
Bottom Line:
Roster improvement and another year of C.J. Stroud in Bobby Slowik's offense with this group of players surrounding him has me buying into the Texans as a dark horse contender to come out of the AFC.
Indianapolis Colts
2023 Record: 9-8 (3rd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Shane Steichen (2nd season)
Notable Additions: QB Joe Flacco, DT Rakewon Davis
Notable Departures: QB Gardner Minshew, RB Zack Moss, WR Isaiah McKenzie
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Michael Pittman Jr. Re-Signing
There's a fair amount of excitement surrounding the Colts receiver group coming into the 2024 season. Josh Downs emerged as a reliable possession option during his rookie year and was having a good camp before suffering a high ankle sprain last week that will likely keep him out until about Week 3 or 4 in the regular season while rookie Adonai "A.D." Mitchell is a potentially dangerous vertical threat with inside/outside capabilities that could carve his way into the starting lineup immediately if he continues to outshine Alec Pierce. The most exciting news however came back in March when top wideout Michael Pittman Jr. signed a 3-year deal to return to the Colts after being franchised by the team less than a week earlier.
While Pittman's numbers don't immediately jump off the page (336 REC/3,662 YDS/15 TD's through 4 NFL seasons), anybody whose watched the Colts play since he's been with the team knows how valuable he is to their operation. Opposing defenses have thrown everything they've had him at since he became a full-time starter in 2021 since the Colts have had no other true receiving threats on their roster during this time, and the kid has lived up to the challenge-hauling in 88+ catches a season, clearing 1,000 YDS twice (2021 and 2023) and posting a 69.4% catch rate over this stretch. Considering that he received 426 targets from a combination of Carson Wentz, decrepit Matt Ryan, Sam Ehlinger, Nick Foles, Anthony Richardson and Gardner Minshew during this time frame, those numbers are nothing short of miraculous.
Nobody has any clue if Richardson can play yet but giving him a true top wideout to grow with is imperative for increasing his chances of sticking in the NFL and Pittman is the kind of tough, reliably productive player you want on your team. Now, if the Colts can put another real threat on the field at WR, Pittman could go from unsung hero WR to undisputed star in no time at all.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Anthony Richardson's Health
Here's a fun question for you guys: How many games did Richardson play from start to finish as a rookie? Really think about it for a second before providing an answer. Alright, let's proceed. The answer is ...................... 1! That's right, Richardson completed just 25% of the games he started last season. How can that be? Quite frankly, because the kid plays with absolutely no regard for his health. The way that he invited contact last season-particularly as a rusher-made Cam Newton look like the poster boy for caution. Durability was chief among the concerns with Richardson coming out of Florida and 2023 proved his critics correct with how it played out.
As he's set to return to action following a major shoulder injury that required surgery, the jitters surrounding Richardson's availability are even higher than they were a year ago. The rocket-armed Joe Flacco is probably a better insurance option than Minshew was last year, but you can't keep relying on the backup to bail out the #4 overall pick in the 2023 draft. The Colts invested in Richardson due to his absurd athletic tools and how much growth potential he had as such a young prospect (he just turned 22 in May). But the kid is not going to get an opportunity to use those skills or grow as a player in Shane Steichen's winning system if he doesn't start taking steps to protect himself.
Deprogramming Richardson from using his elite size/speed (6'4, 244 lbs, 4.43 40 time at the 2023 combine) to run through would-be tacklers on the opposing defense is going to be really difficult. It worked for him in college. It probably worked even better for him at Eastside High in Gainesville, Florida. It's not going to work for him in the pros without him paying the ultimate price: his career. Newton probably shaved 4-5 years off his career with his playing style and he didn't suffer a major injury like Richardson did last year until his 6th season in the league in 2016. Richardson might not even make it to year #6 if he keeps playing like this and everybody in the Colts organization will be on the edge of their seats every fucking time he takes off downfield this season unless there's overwhelming proof that he's no longer trying to run through defenders.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Notable Improvement from the Defense
Given that he was a holdover from Frank Reich's staff, it's actually kind of remarkable that Steichen didn't fire Gus Bradley after last season. Bradley oversaw the 28th ranked scoring defense in the league for the 2nd consecutive year and there was really nothing they could hang their hats on overall as they actually regressed against the pass (11th to 16th) and run (21st to 24th) and only improved in the redzone (32nd to 17th). Firmly on the hot seat with a horrendous recent track record (no defense of his has finished in the top half of the league since back in 2019 with the Chargers), Bradley is going to dig really deep to save his job and elevate a team that seems to have the offensive side of the ball figured out after an impressive first year under Steichen and Jim Bob Cooter.
There are a couple of factors beyond Bradley's control that are going to complicate their improvement efforts. Despite their 28th ranking for a 2nd straight year, GM Chris Ballard decided to effectively run it back with the same group last year. There appears to be some slight tweaks with Nick Cross replacing Rodney Thomas as the starting free safety, rookie Laitu Latu-who was the only defensive player they selected in the first four rounds-along with Tyquan Lewis should be heavily factoring into the EDGE rotation and former Dolphin Rakewon Davis replacing Taven Bryan as the top DT behind DeForest Buckner, but that's about it. Then, right out of the gate in training camp, their pass rush was dealt a big blow when Samson Ebukam-who led the team with 9.5 sacks last year and was arguably the best player on their entire defense-tore his Achillies.
The best hope for improvement lies with the young guys. Cross was heralded for his range and speed at Maryland and could provide the playmaking spark their safety group needs. JuJu Brents was playing pretty well as the team's top corner during the 8 starts he was able to make between hamstring injuries. Kwity Paye is a solid, all-around player on the edge who has future All-Pro potential if he can take his game to the level by upping his pass-rush win rates/sack totals. Latu has arguably the best pass-rushing technique of any one in this class and could be a special player in this league if the neck ailment that almost ended his football career back when he was at Washington doesn't resurface in the pros. If a few of these guys really pop and group leaders Buckner, Kenny Moore and Grover Stewart continue to play at a high level, maybe Bradley can conjure up some of his vintage magic, save his job and help this Colts team make the playoffs.
Bottom Line:
The Colts appear to be in a similar position as they were a year ago, which leaves them in the undesirable position of being competitive enough to be respectable but not quite good enough to make any real noise.
Jacksonville Jaguars
2023 Record: 9-8 (2nd in AFC South)
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (3rd season)
Notable Additions: DE Arik Armstead, WR Gabe Davis, S Darnell Savage
Notable Departures: WR Calvin Ridley, WR Zay Jones, S Rayshawn Jenkins
Biggest Reason for Excitement: Ryan Nielsen Being Hired as DC
Firing Mike Caldwell felt like a reactionary move after they failed to make the playoffs. They were firmly in the middle of the league in scoring defense (17th to be exact), their pass defense actually went up 2 spots to 26th despite top corner Tyson Campbell playing considerably worse than he did the prior year and missing 6 games with a hamstring ailment and their admittedly still inefficient pass rush netted 40 sacks, +5 from 2022. Regardless of the questionable fairness surrounding Caldwell's dismissal, Ryan Nielsen is an upgrade on paper.
While they ironically finished just behind Caldwell's group in 18th in scoring defense, Nielsen got the Falcons defense to improve considerably in his 1 year on the job before Arthur Smith was fired. They jumped from 23th to 8th in pass defense, doubled their sack total from 21 to 42 and went from 14th to 4th redzone efficiency. Rush defense remained a problem as they were 20th in the league-a modest 3 spot improvement from 2022, their takeaway total (16-29th in the league) left a lot to be desired outside of Jessie Bates' 6 INT season and he failed to unlock several of the Falcons younger players (Richie Grant, Arnold Ebiketie, the entirety of the 2023 rookie class), but the good outweighed the bad on the whole.
Armed with a better group of talent in Jacksonville, Nielsen could get to really cook. Top free agent pickup Arik Armstead is the kind of interior menace that can really open things up for Josh Hines-Allen and Travon Walker on the edge, Andre Cisco could be in for an All-Pro year if he plugs in as seamlessly to his scheme as Bates did last year and Devin Lloyd provides him with the impact, field-spanning linebacker that he didn't have in Atlanta. There are some problems at corner that are going to have be worked out as Campbell's aggression led to him getting burnt too often last year and the release of Darious Williams-who was quietly excellent last season-has opened up this sticky situation where they have to rely on Ronald Darby to start-which is always a dice roll given his unpredictable play level and extensive injury history, and I'm not sold on Darnell Savage transitioning to this C.J. Gardner-Johnson-esque slot corner/safety hybrid role following back-to-back brutal years in coverage in Green Bay, but the Jags should feel good about Nielsen's odds of bolstering their defense from the ranks of the middlers.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Putting So Much Trust in Gabe Davis and Brian Thomas Jr. in the Passing Game
The Calvin Ridley experiment in Jacksonville was a mixed bag overall as he disappeared for stretches of the season and wasn't always on the same page with Trevor Lawrence. Despite those blemishes, Ridley still logged 1,016 YDS and 8 TD's on 76 receptions for the year-which was good enough for him to sign a big deal with the rival Titans in free agency. #3 wideout Zay Jones was also cut after the draft following an injury-shortened 2023 that put a screeching halt to the momentum he built up from his career-best 2022 season.
Ridley and Jones' presence may be missed even more based on who they got replaced with. Jacksonville double dipped in free agency at the top of the draft to find Christian Kirk's new running mates by inking Gabe Davis to a multi-year deal and selecting Brian Thomas Jr. with the 23rd overall pick. While these guys considerably increase their overall vertical speed, they're sacrificing a lot of dynamism in the process. Ridley is a tremendous route runner that can make plays all over the field while Jones specialized in making contested catches in the middle of the field as well as on the sideline in intermediate/stick moving pass situations. Davis and Thomas Jr. give you none of that. In fact, they may even be a complete redundancy.
Davis is a known commodity after his time in Buffalo and quite frankly, when he's not catching bombs, you don't even realize he's out there most of the time. Nearly every catch he makes is easy and if he's not wide open downfield, he might as well be on the back of a milk carton. Splash plays are important and all, but paying at least $8 and up to $13.5 mil a year over 3 seasons for a guy who provides zero valuable contributions outside of about 20-35 times a year where he hauls in a long pass feels like bad value.
As for Thomas Jr., his 2023 season at LSU raised a lot of eyebrows as he hauled in 68 receptions for 1,177 YDS and an NCAA-leading 17 TD's. There's a lot to like about this kid as he has some of the most eye-popping speed you'll ever see at this position and a huge vertical that allows him to highpoint the ball with ease. The problem is that Thomas Jr. had a hard time fighting through contact at times during college and his route tree was extremely limited-making his NFL prospects cloudy as hell at the moment.
Trevor Lawrence has the arm to hit these guys and I'm sure that both of them will make some great plays this year. But how does bringing 2 deep ball specialists to replace 2 guys that had nuanced roles in this offense help the overall operation? If anything, it puts more pressure on Kirk, Evan Engram and Travis Etienne to excel since they're the only members of the passing game that have proven they can operate at multiple levels of the field. Making a move like this not just in such a vital season not just for the growth of Lawrence but the job status of both Doug Pederson and Trent Baalke is a bold risk that should factor greatly into the construction of the team beyond this season.
Key Reaching to Their Ceiling: Trevor Lawrence Arriving
Trevor Lawrence is off to a perfectly fine start to his NFL career. He's 17-16 following the Urban Meyer debacle that ruined his rookie season, he won a playoff game versus the Chargers in spectacular fashion in 2022 and most importantly, he provided the stability the Jaguars with the stability they had lacked at the QB position since David Garrard's run of 2007-2010.
Lawrence's honeymoon from criticism and real expectations is over now that he's become one of the highest paid players in league history upon signing a 5 year/$275 mil ($142 mil guaranteed) extension in mid-June. The deal was unsurprising and necessary as Lawrence has played well enough to be a starter in this league, but anyone beyond the most ardent Jaguars supporters would be hard pressed to argue that he's currently an elite QB worthy of that kind of payday.
He's been an average-to-slightly above average starter over the past 3 years. His passing yardage/TD totals are solid but unremarkable (4,000+ in each of the past 2 seasons, 25 and 21 TD's respectively in 2022 and 2023), his accuracy is a little scattershot (63.8% career, 65.95% over the past 2 seasons) and his turnover rate is pretty bad compared to most of his peers (24 fumbles/16 lost over the past 2 seasons, 14+ picks in 2 of his 3 seasons thus far). Right now, I'd put him in the same class with some other guys under 30 (Tua Tagovailoa, Kyler Murray, Baker Mayfield) that I think are good enough to start long-term but not good enough to win a ring.
The kicker is that Lawrence has a good situation around him. Pederson is a Super Bowl-winning coach who runs a good offense. They've had weapons in the passing game over the past 2 seasons and their rushing attack is respectable, if not solid. Their offensive line could be better, but they haven't been bad enough to disrupt his rhythm and/or allow him to get decimated like say Joe Burrow has in Cincinnati or Russell Wilson did back in his Seattle days. Truly transcendent players have taken lesser groups than the ones he'd had here post-2021 to higher heights. Now is the time for Lawrence to prove that's he's the special talent he was crowned to be coming out of Clemson and not just long-haired Kirk Cousins.
Bottom Line:
For better or worse, nothing about this Jaguars team feels overly different than the past 2 years. Anything higher than a 10-win season and quick playoff exit would stun me.
Tennessee Titans
2023 Record: 6-11 (4th in AFC South)
Head Coach: Brian Callahan (1st season)
Notable Additions: CB L'Jarius Sneed, WR Calvin Ridley, RB Tony Pollard
Notable Departures: RB Derrick Henry, DE/DT Denico Autry, QB Ryan Tannehill
Biggest Reason for Excitement: The Front Office's Aggressive Investment in This Roster
Back-to-back losing seasons and a dead last finish in a division they'd easily won the prior 2 seasons was all the inspiration the Titans needed to shake things up considerably this offseason. Mike Vrabel got ousted after a generally successful 6 year run as HC and was replaced by a polar opposite coach in Brain Callahan (more on him in a minute). Most importantly, 2nd year GM Ran Carthon saw all of the issues this roster had in 2023 and the available cap space they had with Derrick Henry and Ryan Tannehill coming off the books and went absolutely bananas in free agency.
It got to the point where it felt like 90% of the moves of note on the transactions log in the opening weeks of free agency were being made by the Titans. L'Jarius Sneed! Calvin Ridley! Chidobe Awuzie! Tony Pollard! Lloyd Cushenberry! Tyler Boyd! Kenneth Murray! Sebastian Joseph-Day! Mason Rudolph! Will all of these moves work? Probably not. Is it the smartest way to build a team? Not at all. But this was a team that needed a huge makeover after the past couple of years and they had the cap flexibility to make it happen, so Carthon did. The dedication to aggressively pursuing the top talent available at positions of need (particularly corner, receiver and offensive line) is admirable and if we end seeing a surprise playoff appearance from this team, the contributions of these free agents will likely be a big reason why.
Biggest Reason for Concern: Brian Callahan
Maybe it's just my ignorance as somebody who doesn't cover football professionally, but why and how did Callahan get a head coaching gig during this cycle? Unlike somebody like Mike McDaniel-who became a darling in league circles despite being an OC who didn't call plays, I've never heard any pundits gassing up Callahan's role in building up the Bengals offense that's flourished under Joe Burrow or refer him to as a genius. Making the timing even stranger is that the Bengals are coming off a down year on offense, largely due to Burrow's injury, finishing 16th in scoring.
Was it a case of Callahan potentially soaking up the magical aura of Sean McVay after working alongside Zac Taylor for the past 5 years? A case of his status as the son of legendary offensive line coach/considerably less legendary head coach Bill Callahan being endearing to teams perhaps? Or maybe the Titans just wanted a coach that was radically different from Vrabel and they liked him more than Bobby Slowik or any of the other offensive-minded coached they interviewed?
Whatever the reason may be, bringing in a guy with zero playcalling experience at any level and a questionable resume (prior to being Bengals OC, he was a quality control coach/offensive assistant with the Broncos from 2010-2015 and a QB coach with the Lions from 2016-17 and Raiders in 2018) to lead the franchise and potentially build up a young quarterback is the kind of head-scratching big swing of a hire that doesn't work less often than it does in this league.
Key to Reaching Their Ceiling: Will Levis Getting on Track
Fan or not, the highly polarizing Will Levis had zero chance to succeed last season. He was handed the reigns to a 2-4 team with a horrible offensive line, no proven pass-catching weapons outside of DeAndre Hopkins and one of the worst defenses in football when he made his first start in place of an injured Tannehill in Week 8. His numbers (1,808 YDS/8 TD's/4 INT's/58.4 CMP%) and record (3-6) as a starter reflect the crappiness of his environment and shouldn't be held against him. At least he'll always have that hilarious late season 4th quarterback comeback win over the Dolphins on Monday Night Football that ended up setting the stage for the 'Fins losing the AFC East crown and having to travel to Kansas City for the Wild Card round instead of staying at home to play Pittsburgh to remember his shitty rookie year by.
Many of the investments made in this team were an attempt to put Levis in the best spot to succeed after a tumultuous first chapter of his career. Callahan was around for Burrow's development into a top 10 QB in the league. Ridley provides him with another proven weapon that can get open at multiple levels of the field and compete for tough contested catches in the redzone. Boyd is a damn fine possession receiver/checkdown option who remained reliable across several different regimes during his 8 seasons with the Bengals. Pollard won't be able to fill the massive shoes of Henry in the backfield, but he's got a dual threat skill set and special burst that should be back in full capacity after he was slowed by his recovery from offseason ankle surgery for much of last season. Cushenberry was a legit anchor for the Broncos line and probably a top 5 overall center in 2023-which is shocking considering how he played in the 3 prior seasons.
Don't get it twisted, there are still several question marks surrounding this group before we even get to Levis himself. They are putting an awful lot of faith in Cushenberry after 1 good season and 1st round draft pick JC Latham-who carries the burden of being a tackle that played for Nick Saban at Alabama (if you don't believe this is a potential red flag, look up "NFL offensive lineman that played for Nick Saban at Alabama" and be prepared for a big shock when you look at the careers of nearly all the names that pop up)-to fix their dreadful o-line, the ages of their top wideouts (Hopkins is 32, Ridley and Boyd will be 30 in December and November respectively) are kind of alarming given how the rest of the group looks (Treylon Burks, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Kyle Phillips are expected to be the next 3 up) and there's the aforementioned concerns with Callahan's inexperience calling plays and being truly in charge of an offense.
As for Levis himself, the biggest thing he needs to work on his accuracy. The fact that his receivers weren't the best and he was trying to pull plays out of his ass on account of the garbage offensive line play didn't help matters, but he also showed questionable touch frequently. This isn't really surprising as accuracy was one of the biggest knocks on him coming out of college and those concerns were vindicated after last season.
The other big thing he needs to improve is his decisionmaking. The INT total wasn't bad at all, especially for a rookie, but make no mistake, he was lucky to only throw 4. This kid is a certified gunslinger who has no problem chucking the ball downfield. It doesn't matter how many guys you have on your roster that can go up and get it, throwing up prayers on the regular is a bad way of doing business at quarterback, especially when you have pronounced struggles with accuracy.
Given Levis' status as a 2nd round pick, his ability to get back on track this year could dictate whether or not he's still a Titan next season. What a fun situation to navigate as a 2nd year player on a rebuilding team!
Bottom Line:
Despite the heavy amount of roster turnover and new coaching staff, I don't expect the Titans to make any significant strides forward in 2024.
Predicted Standings:
1.Houston Texans (11-6)
2.Indianapolis Colts (9-8)
3.Jacksonville Jaguars (8-9)
4.Tennessee Titans (6-11)
